Lessons learned from a brutal Thursday night

[Spiccoli]

Services and a lot of independent "cappers" basically SUCKED tonight. Overwhelming plays on E. Michigan, Texas A&M and UTEP (although UTEP still might cover late....highly unlikely down 24-0 in 2nd Quarter).

Public LOVED Texas A&M and Northwestern.

Preseason ball big money on KC plus another "Game of the Week" from Phil Steele (who goes 0-3, thanks Phil). Then money on San Fran (losing), Houston (lost), Detroit (lost), Giants (why?!), and Zona (oh, a winner!)

I plan to sit back and see where all the attention goes on Saturday...then fade like hell. Right now, for Friday, seems EVERYONE likes Wash. State. Looks like my next play is ready!

[coonsis]

I AGREE

I'M WITH YOU..

[Topplayer]

Services

I think you are right my friend. It seems most cappers dont win consistanty. When most are on one side it loses 80% of the time. If cappers could win consistantly why would they waste time selling the picks. Just bet and win would be enough.

[savage1]

Spiccoli-thanks for confirming what I believed and stated in service thread re: NorthCoast.

[Dr. T]

I won big with Northcoast last year but they are COLD in the preseason so far. Also, they were so bad in Arena football that they quit having plays after a few weeks.

[drugstuntman]

yeah, utep killed me, the patriots killed me and to top it off, I had LA and SF parlay and Schmidt loses at home.....ouch

[cisco]

I like Fresno St.

[ROBB MACK]

I FEEL YA' SPICCCOLI. I GOT KILLED MYSELF. 1-5. THE ONLY WINNER I HAD (TCU OVER) WAS ON MY OWN. PICK YOUR OWN GAMES. CHEAPER AND YOU CAN ONLY BE MAD AT YOURSELF.

[SuperZero]

(DIS)Services

I have to believe topplayer is on to something. Although I am not sure the consensus selctions lose 80% of the time (I would say 70%) they certainly lose more times than they win. That seems to hold true for football and baseball, I have no clue about basketball because I don't bet it. In the year that I have been following the picks of the self-proclaimed professionals on this site I have learned the hard way to stay away from the plays that the vast majority of them are picking; or if you insist on playing the game then fade the pick. Obviously it dosn't always work as I lost by going against them last night with TCU but I did win by fading A+M. Thats just 2 cents from a Superzero so take it for what its worth.

[wacco]

How bout Cokin's G-O-Y

Yes, another worthless beauty ! Smokin' Dave Cokin's NFL PRE-SEASON GAME-OF-THE-YEAR was Denver.

Now Denver and Dave are BOTH "smoked" !

I also went with UTEP. ( As many services did also. )

But Saturday is looking mighty fine to me .....
Later..

( My SAT picks: OHIO ST, LOUISVILLE, CAL )

Wacco

[bilbal]

Services don't know a thing about what it takes to be a successful gambler; they know how to run a successful business. Their model is based on a sucker being born every minute, just ask Ty Gaston.

There is no concern for proper money management, bet sizes in comparison to bet frequency and its effects on the vigorish, or the win percent they will need to show a profit. If they don't pay attention to that, it doesn't matter how many winners they give you, you'll still wind up broke. What they care about is getting a sucker to click buy, that's it.

All you have to do is do your own capping or at least listen to others in here who clearly do their capping (the obvious list of Tony S, EZ, Tony Vegas, 3 wise men, etc, sorry if I left you off this list, no offense!)

Keep your bet size consistent throughout the season, aim for hitting a realistic 55% win rate and you'll be much, much better off emotionally and financially.

[frankb03]

I finally had a lesson beat into my last night.

NO MORE PRE-SEASON FOOTBALL

[10DimeBry]

bill

your right I learned the hard way about services. They suck your money dry and just hand out losers. I'd be willing to bet that 1/2 of them work for the sportsbooks themselves. Either way following guys on here is much more profitable.

BC
Albany,NY

[PurpleMushroom]

If you bet on the underdogs in preseason, you'll win more than you lose. I bet on seven last night, and went 4-3. And I more than doubled my initial drop.

[drillerman09]

Phil Steele sucks

Everyone do yourself a favor and stay away from Phil Steele's Picks....The only thing he does is "steele" your money....this guy is awful.............he says he is around 60%...........try more like 30%.....your better off asking your daughter what uniforms look more fancy and go with her pick!!!!!!!!!!! For you Mr. Steele