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Virgin Line Moves
Tough weekend for the books, as they got sided, middled, beaten on numerous big decisions, and slapped around in a couple of the bizarre finishes that characterized this past weekend in both pro and college football.
Big Decisions: Public bettors liked West Virginia, driving the line up on gameday and the Mountaineers knocked off Boston College. Navy took sharp money all week, covering by more than three TD’s against Notre Dame. Temple took sharp money all week, and covered by double digits over Pitt. Syracuse took sharp money all week and beat Virginia Tech straight up in overtime. Purdue took the sharp money and gave Ohio State everything they could handle, covering the spread in a losing effort. Arkansas opened as a pick ‘em in town, closed as a five point favorite, and won 23-0 over South Carolina Colorado won and covered in a controversial overtime finish at Missouri, with square money loaded up on the road favorite. Kansas State had a four point line move in their own direction, and the bettors won that won big, as the Wildcats pounded Iowa State. New Mexico opened as a 1.5 point favorite here in town , but by kickoff, bettors were being asked to lay six. They won by seven over San Diego St, with a late safety having a big impact on the spread, although a middle in that game might not have been any better for the books. Boise State continued their dominance as a home favorite, whipping Rice, as the line was bet up by both sharp and square money. USC took a ton of money to beat Stanford, and they whipped the Cardinal, another very bad decision for the house in a heavily bet national TV game, as was Michigan, who took the $$ and beat up on Minnesota in the ESPN late game. That’s one heck of a lot of big money line moves, both sharp and square, to go against the house on a single Saturday. Books did well on only a few games – Washington State beating Oregon, Memphis backdooring against South Florida, UTEP hanging with Nevada are the only three sides that stand out, and none of those were very public plays. When both sharps and squares were able to cash in at this level on the same weekend, you know it was an ugly Saturday for the house.
Middles and Sides: Air Force opened a 22 point road favorite, closed as a 17.5 point road favorite, and won the game by 19. Utah opened as an 8.5 point favorite over UNLV, closed as an 11 point favorite, and won by exactly 11. The Florida State – Georgia Tech line bounced around all week between seven and eight. Most bettors won or pushed, as the game finished with an eight point Seminole win. The Southern Miss line bounced around between six and seven, and sharp bettors cashed in when the Eagles beat UAB by exactly a touchdown. And in the Sunday Night game, the sharp money had both sides, giving them a nice little score when the game landed right on three.
After 11 weeks of tracking the moves, things have come full circle. The Sunday night sharp money has gone 68-68-4 YTD on their college football ‘opinion’ moves, indicating that the bettors and bookmakers really are in a tough battle against one another, with neither side having a clear advantage. That point is only emphasized more by the dearth of moves this week – by this stage of the season, the bettors and the bookies are really working with pretty much the same numbers in their own power ratings. But the five opinion moves in college this week are the fewest total of moves in recent memory, something that can only happen this late in the college football season. The early money has done considerably better in the NFL, with a 2-1 week last Sunday night bringing their year-to-date total up to 41-30-1. I definitely recommend considering the sharp, early NFL money when making your Sunday football betting decisions.
Let’s move on to the Virgin Line Moves from the Stardust on Sunday night. Thanks for reading.
Ted
Whocovers.com
Big Moves
Move Towards Virgin # Move Opponent
AKRON -12.5 -14 Buffalo
RICE 11 10 Hawaii
Utah -7 -7.5 WYOMING
FLORIDA ST -30 -31.5 N Carolina
CALIFORNIA -15.5 -16.5 Arizona
Utah St 9 8 TROY ST
Small (½ point) moves
ILLINOIS 10 9.5 Ohio St
KANSAS ST -11 -11.5 Nebraska
OREGON -9 -9.5 Washington
The ‘opinion’ moves were: Illinois, Akron, Rice, Oregon and Utah St.
The ’arbitrage’ moves were: Utah, Florida St, Kansas St and Cal.
NFL Moves
Move Towards Virgin # Move Opponent
BENGALS 4 3.5 Browns
Cowboys 7 6.5 COLTS
CHIEFS -3(-120)
Cowboys-Colts Total 42 41
Bills-Chiefs Total 52.5 51.5
Panthers – Bucs Total 34 35
Jaguars – Texans Total 38 37.5
RECAP of Last Week’s Moves (11-3)
Big Moves
Move Towards Virgin # Move Opponent
W VIRGINIA -3 -3.5 Boston College W
PITTSBURGH -18.5 -20 Temple L
Ohio St -6.5 -7 PURDUE L
INDIANA -1 -3 Michigan St L
GEORGIA -14 -15 Mississippi P (first bet a push)
C Florida -17 -18 BUFFALO W
Florida -20.5 -21.5 VANDERBILT L
TCU -11 -13 Tulane L
ARMY 22 21 AIR FORCE W
NEW MEXICO -1.5 -2.5 San Diego St W
UTAH -8.5 -9.5 Unlv W
BOISE ST -26 -28 Rice W
Michigan -4.5 -5.5 MINNESOTA W
N TEXAS -12.5 -14 Idaho L
Small (½ point) moves
Cincinnati 10 9.5 LOUISVILLE
PENN ST -13 -13.5 Virginia
SYRACUSE 14.5 14 Virginia Tech
Arkansas Pk -1 S CAROLINA
BYU -9.5 -10 Wyoming
Usc -14.5 -15 STANFORD
C Michigan 14.5 14 TOLEDO
AUBURN -36 -37 Louisiana-Monroe
The ‘opinion’ moves were: W Virginia, Pitt, Ohio St, Indiana, Georgia, Arkansas, Florida, TCU, New Mexico, Utah, BYU, Boise St, C Michigan, Michigan, Auburn and North Texas. (7-8-1 last week, 68 – 68 – 4 YTD)
The ’arbitrage’ moves were: Cincinnati, Penn St, C Florida and Army.
There was no line posted offshore on Sunday night for the Virginia Tech – Syracuse game and the USC- Stanford game.
NFL Moves
Move Towards Virgin # Move Opponent
RAMS -5.5 -6.5 Chargers L
BEARS 4 3.5 Patriots W
Cardinals-Seahawks Total 39.5 37 W
NFL moves are now 41-30-1 YTD.
Tough weekend for the books, as they got sided, middled, beaten on numerous big decisions, and slapped around in a couple of the bizarre finishes that characterized this past weekend in both pro and college football.
Big Decisions: Public bettors liked West Virginia, driving the line up on gameday and the Mountaineers knocked off Boston College. Navy took sharp money all week, covering by more than three TD’s against Notre Dame. Temple took sharp money all week, and covered by double digits over Pitt. Syracuse took sharp money all week and beat Virginia Tech straight up in overtime. Purdue took the sharp money and gave Ohio State everything they could handle, covering the spread in a losing effort. Arkansas opened as a pick ‘em in town, closed as a five point favorite, and won 23-0 over South Carolina Colorado won and covered in a controversial overtime finish at Missouri, with square money loaded up on the road favorite. Kansas State had a four point line move in their own direction, and the bettors won that won big, as the Wildcats pounded Iowa State. New Mexico opened as a 1.5 point favorite here in town , but by kickoff, bettors were being asked to lay six. They won by seven over San Diego St, with a late safety having a big impact on the spread, although a middle in that game might not have been any better for the books. Boise State continued their dominance as a home favorite, whipping Rice, as the line was bet up by both sharp and square money. USC took a ton of money to beat Stanford, and they whipped the Cardinal, another very bad decision for the house in a heavily bet national TV game, as was Michigan, who took the $$ and beat up on Minnesota in the ESPN late game. That’s one heck of a lot of big money line moves, both sharp and square, to go against the house on a single Saturday. Books did well on only a few games – Washington State beating Oregon, Memphis backdooring against South Florida, UTEP hanging with Nevada are the only three sides that stand out, and none of those were very public plays. When both sharps and squares were able to cash in at this level on the same weekend, you know it was an ugly Saturday for the house.
Middles and Sides: Air Force opened a 22 point road favorite, closed as a 17.5 point road favorite, and won the game by 19. Utah opened as an 8.5 point favorite over UNLV, closed as an 11 point favorite, and won by exactly 11. The Florida State – Georgia Tech line bounced around all week between seven and eight. Most bettors won or pushed, as the game finished with an eight point Seminole win. The Southern Miss line bounced around between six and seven, and sharp bettors cashed in when the Eagles beat UAB by exactly a touchdown. And in the Sunday Night game, the sharp money had both sides, giving them a nice little score when the game landed right on three.
After 11 weeks of tracking the moves, things have come full circle. The Sunday night sharp money has gone 68-68-4 YTD on their college football ‘opinion’ moves, indicating that the bettors and bookmakers really are in a tough battle against one another, with neither side having a clear advantage. That point is only emphasized more by the dearth of moves this week – by this stage of the season, the bettors and the bookies are really working with pretty much the same numbers in their own power ratings. But the five opinion moves in college this week are the fewest total of moves in recent memory, something that can only happen this late in the college football season. The early money has done considerably better in the NFL, with a 2-1 week last Sunday night bringing their year-to-date total up to 41-30-1. I definitely recommend considering the sharp, early NFL money when making your Sunday football betting decisions.
Let’s move on to the Virgin Line Moves from the Stardust on Sunday night. Thanks for reading.
Ted
Whocovers.com
Big Moves
Move Towards Virgin # Move Opponent
AKRON -12.5 -14 Buffalo
RICE 11 10 Hawaii
Utah -7 -7.5 WYOMING
FLORIDA ST -30 -31.5 N Carolina
CALIFORNIA -15.5 -16.5 Arizona
Utah St 9 8 TROY ST
Small (½ point) moves
ILLINOIS 10 9.5 Ohio St
KANSAS ST -11 -11.5 Nebraska
OREGON -9 -9.5 Washington
The ‘opinion’ moves were: Illinois, Akron, Rice, Oregon and Utah St.
The ’arbitrage’ moves were: Utah, Florida St, Kansas St and Cal.
NFL Moves
Move Towards Virgin # Move Opponent
BENGALS 4 3.5 Browns
Cowboys 7 6.5 COLTS
CHIEFS -3(-120)
Cowboys-Colts Total 42 41
Bills-Chiefs Total 52.5 51.5
Panthers – Bucs Total 34 35
Jaguars – Texans Total 38 37.5
RECAP of Last Week’s Moves (11-3)
Big Moves
Move Towards Virgin # Move Opponent
W VIRGINIA -3 -3.5 Boston College W
PITTSBURGH -18.5 -20 Temple L
Ohio St -6.5 -7 PURDUE L
INDIANA -1 -3 Michigan St L
GEORGIA -14 -15 Mississippi P (first bet a push)
C Florida -17 -18 BUFFALO W
Florida -20.5 -21.5 VANDERBILT L
TCU -11 -13 Tulane L
ARMY 22 21 AIR FORCE W
NEW MEXICO -1.5 -2.5 San Diego St W
UTAH -8.5 -9.5 Unlv W
BOISE ST -26 -28 Rice W
Michigan -4.5 -5.5 MINNESOTA W
N TEXAS -12.5 -14 Idaho L
Small (½ point) moves
Cincinnati 10 9.5 LOUISVILLE
PENN ST -13 -13.5 Virginia
SYRACUSE 14.5 14 Virginia Tech
Arkansas Pk -1 S CAROLINA
BYU -9.5 -10 Wyoming
Usc -14.5 -15 STANFORD
C Michigan 14.5 14 TOLEDO
AUBURN -36 -37 Louisiana-Monroe
The ‘opinion’ moves were: W Virginia, Pitt, Ohio St, Indiana, Georgia, Arkansas, Florida, TCU, New Mexico, Utah, BYU, Boise St, C Michigan, Michigan, Auburn and North Texas. (7-8-1 last week, 68 – 68 – 4 YTD)
The ’arbitrage’ moves were: Cincinnati, Penn St, C Florida and Army.
There was no line posted offshore on Sunday night for the Virginia Tech – Syracuse game and the USC- Stanford game.
NFL Moves
Move Towards Virgin # Move Opponent
RAMS -5.5 -6.5 Chargers L
BEARS 4 3.5 Patriots W
Cardinals-Seahawks Total 39.5 37 W
NFL moves are now 41-30-1 YTD.
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