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Cleveland/Minnesota Under 8.5 -115
Sabathia & Radke
There is an extremely compelling case for playing the “Under” here. We have two excellent starting pitchers, one team that is ice cold on offense, another team that struggles vs. left-handed pitching and enough angles and trends to support a building. As to the first point, Cleveland will send their rotund southpaw Sabathia to the hill today. Despite his dimensions, Sabathia comes in with a solid 3.91 ERA overall, a sensational 3.07 ERA when on the road and a similarly nice 3.54 ERA his past three starts. Sabathia has given up less than a hit per inning pitched this season (149 innings vs. 140 hits) and has a rock-solid 108/55 – K/BB on ratio. We should also note that each of Sabathia’s past three starts have played “Under”.
Meanwhile, the Twins will send veteran right-hander Radke to the hill. This guy is pitching exceptionally well, carrying a 3.55 ERA overall, a 3.31 ERA when at home and a sizzling 2.05 ERA his past three starts overall.
Radke also carries one of the most startling stats in all of baseball.
That is, Radke comes in with a staggering 113/17 – K/BB ratio in 2004. That is not a misprint ... Radke has a whopping 113 strike-outs vs. just 17 walks this year. Incredible … Incredible … Incredible!!!
Radke has also been an “Under” machine throughout his career. For the season, Radke is a modest 11-15 (o/u) overall and 7-9 (o/u) when at home.
However, the Twins right-hander is now 43-72 (o/u) his past one-hundred ten starts priced at -150 or less.
Given the quality of starting pitching today, neither one of these line ups stands to score much. Cleveland’s bats have been absolutely frigid of late, producing 1 run, 1 run, 2 runs, 4 runs, 2 runs and 2 runs respectively in their past six games. This is a whopping 2 per contest during this span.
The Twins offense has actually been fairly hot in recent games, but there is a caveat. Minnesota does not hit lefties very well.
The Twins put up just 4.5 runs per game of offense behind a .262 batting average and meager .317 OBP vs. lefties overall.
In their past ten games, Minny is putting up an anemic 2.01 runs per nine innings vs. southpaws behind an ugly .190 batting average and unthinkable .254 OBP.
We should also note that there are a host of technical indicators supporting our cause today. To name just a few, Cleveland’s frigid bats have paved the way for a 1-9-1 (o/u) mark in their past eleven games overall.
Additionally, the Tribe is 2-9 (o/u) their past eleven following back-to-back games where they produced 1 or less runs of offense.
For Minnesota’s part, they check into today’s tilt at 52-61 (o/u) for the season and 4-12 (o/u) after allowing 1 or fewer runs in their previous game. When all is said and done, it is hard to see this game producing 9 or more.
G.L.
Cleveland/Minnesota Under 8.5 -115
Sabathia & Radke
There is an extremely compelling case for playing the “Under” here. We have two excellent starting pitchers, one team that is ice cold on offense, another team that struggles vs. left-handed pitching and enough angles and trends to support a building. As to the first point, Cleveland will send their rotund southpaw Sabathia to the hill today. Despite his dimensions, Sabathia comes in with a solid 3.91 ERA overall, a sensational 3.07 ERA when on the road and a similarly nice 3.54 ERA his past three starts. Sabathia has given up less than a hit per inning pitched this season (149 innings vs. 140 hits) and has a rock-solid 108/55 – K/BB on ratio. We should also note that each of Sabathia’s past three starts have played “Under”.
Meanwhile, the Twins will send veteran right-hander Radke to the hill. This guy is pitching exceptionally well, carrying a 3.55 ERA overall, a 3.31 ERA when at home and a sizzling 2.05 ERA his past three starts overall.
Radke also carries one of the most startling stats in all of baseball.
That is, Radke comes in with a staggering 113/17 – K/BB ratio in 2004. That is not a misprint ... Radke has a whopping 113 strike-outs vs. just 17 walks this year. Incredible … Incredible … Incredible!!!
Radke has also been an “Under” machine throughout his career. For the season, Radke is a modest 11-15 (o/u) overall and 7-9 (o/u) when at home.
However, the Twins right-hander is now 43-72 (o/u) his past one-hundred ten starts priced at -150 or less.
Given the quality of starting pitching today, neither one of these line ups stands to score much. Cleveland’s bats have been absolutely frigid of late, producing 1 run, 1 run, 2 runs, 4 runs, 2 runs and 2 runs respectively in their past six games. This is a whopping 2 per contest during this span.
The Twins offense has actually been fairly hot in recent games, but there is a caveat. Minnesota does not hit lefties very well.
The Twins put up just 4.5 runs per game of offense behind a .262 batting average and meager .317 OBP vs. lefties overall.
In their past ten games, Minny is putting up an anemic 2.01 runs per nine innings vs. southpaws behind an ugly .190 batting average and unthinkable .254 OBP.
We should also note that there are a host of technical indicators supporting our cause today. To name just a few, Cleveland’s frigid bats have paved the way for a 1-9-1 (o/u) mark in their past eleven games overall.
Additionally, the Tribe is 2-9 (o/u) their past eleven following back-to-back games where they produced 1 or less runs of offense.
For Minnesota’s part, they check into today’s tilt at 52-61 (o/u) for the season and 4-12 (o/u) after allowing 1 or fewer runs in their previous game. When all is said and done, it is hard to see this game producing 9 or more.
G.L.
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