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NFL PREVIEW
My NFC Choice (as of now) to make the Big Dance will not be a sleeper this year. I'm picking the Green Bay Packers in the NFC. They are the team I have my Pre-Season eye on. Unless I see something in the Pre-Season significant enough to unseat my thinking on this year's version of the Packers, I will stick with them. I expect their pre-season will confirm my suspicions.
All the ingredients seem to be in place. Let me first offer a rebuttal to three probable objections to my choice of the Packers as NFC reps in the SB; those objections namely would be the Eagles, Farve, and 4th and 26.
Firstly, right now there are some who are expecting Brett Farve to begin his downward career spiral. I do not belive that. If anything, I suspect he is in for an all-time best. His 41-7 thrashing of the Raiders on Monday Night and one day after the death of his father says it all. I believe that game was reactionary and representative of what you can expect this SEASON to be for him and his Packers. I believe he will respond this SEASON the way he responded in that GAME.
Two, some are speculating that the blown 4th down and 26 conversion on the part of the Packers defense (which kept them from going to the NFC Championship Game) will somehow have a hangover effect. Hogwash. The Packers D is in tact. They improved dramatically the latter half of the Season, allowing only one 100-yard rushing game and only one 300-yard game in route to a 7-1 finish in the final 8 games. Remember what I said about strong finishes the prior year! It is often an indicator of things to come!
And three, the Eagles. Many are saying that no one will be able to stop the Eagles this year. Wow. T.O. must be really magical. The idea that somehow T.O. is the solution to a team that has been in-tact, gelled, and made 3 straight NFC Championship appearances is, to me, rather arrogant. You heard it here first: The Eagles will not even win their division, much less make it to the NFC Game again.
Andy Reid has done a remarkable job and remains one of the league's better coaches, but they have run out of excuses for not making the big one; and the Kearse/Owen combo is not the answer in my opinion. Cowboys win the East, and the Packers will be the team to beat in the NFC.
Having addressed those objections, let me offer a couple other notes...
I've already mentioned the rise of the Packer D. In addtion to that, for the first time in the Brett Farve era, the Packers had more running plays than passing plays. That is a move in the right direction for a SB run.
Not only did the Packers finish up strong last year, but note that they had the smallest margin in their losses of anyone in the League. They also had the largest margin in their wins of any team in the league. They were #1 in the Red Zone on Offense, and, you guessed it, Number One in the Red Zone on Defense.
Perk up non-believers. The Pack is back. They fell one play short of the NFC Championship Game last year. This year they have a revived defense, a hungry Farve with a new sense of urgency looking for 1 more SB, a running game, young receivers, and the right opening day game to get their head straight right off the bat:
PACKERS @ PANTHERS on Monday Night Football
Care to guess who I'll be on?
Speaking of the Packers, the NFC North has but one serious contender this year other than the Packers, and that would be the Vikings. Having said that, wouldn't it be interesting if the Bears snuck up on everyone. Despite improving from 4 wins in '02 to 7 wins last year, Jauron is gone. His replacement Lovie Smith is a strong defensive coordinator from the St Louis Rams.
Smith opted to use 4 of his first 5 draft picks on the defensive side of the ball. If he's wise enough to commit to a running game, their current strength, the Bears could land a .500 year or better. Or not. They're in a tough division that's getting even tougher with the Lions looking to improve this year as well.
As enthusiastic as the Bears might be, they could easily start out 0-2 on the season and in the division. That could put an early damper on things. Week Two has them pitted at Green Bay, a team Lovie is determined to beat. If the Bears focus to hard on that Week Two match up and overlook their opener against the hapless Lions, Mariucci could quietly sneak in and out with a win at Chicago as he is eager to snap their road losing streak to start the season out right for the improving Lions. In that scenario the Bears could find themselves shell-shocked right of the bat while attempting to bounce back at Green Bay.
I'm searching for potential Superbowl Prospects, Conference Champs, and Division Champs. The bottom line for the Bears is that they do not appear to fit in to any of those categories this year. Ditto for the Lions...
If you haven't read Barry Sanders book, check it out. He details, finally, why he retired. He makes a compelling case for a Lion's organization that is not serious about winning Championships but rather making money. That really rang true for me being as I live only 1 hour from New Orleans--a team with a history of buying low, training players, and selling high. I really like Steve Mariucci as a person and coach, but the feeling here is that if he could not take the San Francisco 49ers to the bowl, I doubt it will happen in Detroit.
Which leaves us with the Vikings. Talk about underachieving. I was really high on the Vikes last year and on Mike Tice. I correctly predicted a career year for Randy Moss due to his off-season improvements in work ethic and attitude. While the Vikings seem the more obvious choice than the Packers to win the NFC North and possibly the NFC Title, I have a problem with a team/coach/ system/whatever that starts out 6-0 and misses the playoffs for no apparent reason. It's not like they amassed a multitude of injuries to key players.
Secondly, when it came down to the nitty gritty in the final game of the season, on the final drive, and the final play, they failed. They gave up a TD to the worst team in the League. They lost. That's all I have to see to evaluate where they are. I expect more of the same this year: Underachievers falling short. This may seem like crazy reasoning, but consider last year's Eagles...
Again they were perennial faves to win the NFC, and I maintained strongly that if they could not get it done in 2002 with home field throughout the playoffs, what would be different in 2003? Amazingly, they are favored once again this year. And once again they will not get it done; but that's another subject.
The point is that sometimes you can eliminate non-contenders even if they appear to be contenders; and you can do that based on the crazy type reasoning I am using. With that in mind, again, the Vikings are not on my contenders list. What happened last year? What happened? They lost to the worst team in the league when in the most important game of their season. Period.
In setting out to pick SB contenders, eliminating the NON-contenders first makes the search easier. So here' what I have so far in my search for the NFC's Superbowl representative:
NON-CONTENDERS:
Lions...for what I hope are obvious reasons.
Bears...ditto.
Vikings...something wrong in the camp; no excuses, they did not get it done when it counted.
CONTENDERS:
Packers...QB, run game, improving D, legacy, confidence, etc.
As you can see, weeding out the non-contenders will quickly narrow down the list of possibilities, and you'll be left with some nice futures plays. Of course, these are just preliminary choices and will be subject to the scrutiny of Pre-Season.
NFC EAST:
In a division full of hall of fame coaches you can expect some competitive divisional rivalries. This could be the new black and blue division of the NFL. In picking a division winner, I'll look first to disount the team or teams that I do not expect to win it. Secondly, I'll look to defense first to pick my choice in the NFC.
The most glaring standout to me as far as who will NOT win this division is the New York Giants. Their defense is in shambles. While I expect they will be improved on the defensive side of the ball, and while the addition of Warner and Coughlin are attractive, I do not think this will be enough in their first year.
Perhaps in another division the aforementioned additions might effect a one-eighty in standings for the Gints, but not against the likes of Bill Parcells and his Dallas "D", Andy Reid and his SB Favored Eagles, or Joe Gibbs and his revamped and revised Redskins complete with the addition of Clinton Portis and Mark Breunel and what I expect to be a top five defense. Bottom line is someone has to finish in the cellar, and I believe it will be the Giants even if they manage 7 wins.
As this year's SB favorites, the Eagles are obviously the favorite to win the NFC East. While I do not doubt their potential, I question how this team will respond to having lost, again, in the NFC Championship Game. That makes three straight and two straight in their back yard. Something just isn't right. They have no excuses. Prior to last year's game, it was generally understood that this was the year; that this team may not ever play again in it's [then] current form. Somehow they lost again.
The high-profile additions of key impact players like Jevon Kearse and Terrel Owens may make a difference, but I wonder if the difference they make in talent will be off-set by the interuption in continuity. To me, the Eagles had gelled over the years. They were about as good as they could be, and I'm not sure the addition of slightly better talent in a couple of positions will be of any benefit--atleast not until Philly does some soul searching and purges themselves of that nagging problem: why can't we win the NFC Title?
Whatever the reason for their failing again when it counts the most, I don't know what the answer is; but I am convince what the answer is NOT. The answer is NOT that they have failed because they were lacking Terrel Owens and Jevon Kearse.
Andy Reid and his Eagles have now had double-digit ATS Winning Seasons for three straight years--a rare feat indeed and a testimony to Reid's ability to keep his team executing and keep them focussed through adversity. However, that should be a warning sign for potential Eagle backers. As though they will not already be overrated enough, add to that the additions of Kearse and Owens and you might find them to be laying a few too many points more often than not.
I would be very careful of the Eagles--for or against--early in the Season. This is a potential pivotal season for them. A collapse would not surprise me in the least. But in light of Reid's genious, neither would another Superbowl Run. With the rise of talent in the NFC East, the 3rd NFC Title Game loss in a row, and 3 straight double-digit ATS winning years, I am more inclined to expect a letdown from the Eagles this year. I do not expect them to be in this year's NFC title game. Going further, I do not expect them to win their division.
Which leaves us with two possible teams to win the NFC East: The Redskins and Cowboys. While I expect the Redskins to be VASTLY improved--indeed they are building quite an impressive thing there in DC, I'm going to give the nod to the Dallas Cowboys as the NFC East Champs.
The Redskins should be a very real threat in 2005 or 2006 (yes, that soon), and they could very easily compete with the Eagles for second place this year. Am I saying that the Eagles could finish third in the division? Yes. That would not surprise me at all. I expect the Redskins to battle them for second.
This leaves the Cowboys. A top-five defense last year, the more remarkable thing was that they were not that bad on offense considering that no one expected them to be as effective and they were with the young QB's. Dallas has the coach and the defense to win the division. With the additions of Testeverde and Keyshawn--two players who excelled under Parcells with the Jets, they now have the extra little help they needed on offense. The one thing that is in the air is the running game. If the Cowboy's offensive line can play up to snuff, and if Parcells appoint a back and commit to him, a four-yard per carry average is probable and will be enough to make a SB run. If not, the pressure will be on Vinny; something good enough for the NFC East but not good enough for a SB run.
I'm a Parcels believer. He took the same basic team that won 5 games for three straight seasons and turned them into a playoff team that outgained 13 of 16 of their regular season opponents. In the Net Yardage category, they were favored in every single game last year--the only team in the league that can say that. While my final analysis is pending Pre-Season, at this point I like the Cowboys to make a run for the SB this year.
The NFC South is somewhat wide open. Here's what you got...
The Bucs are looking to rebound off last season's disappointment, but they have lost Lynch, Sapp, and Keyshawn. Like'm or not, they're key losses. My feeling is that the Bucs have been very good for a very long time and that their run is over.
Don't forget, the Bucs were SB contenders several years prior to Gruden's arrival. Dungy could not get them over the hump. So I see them as a team that is either on the decline or at best in a rebuilding year of sorts. However, if anyone can overcome all that, it would be Chucky.
The Saints remain a mystery. An enigma. Along with the Dolphins they are the biggest underachievers in the League. I correctly predicted their destiny last season in my NFL Preview, suggesting that they were a distracted team; full of talent but lacking the focus to execute consistently.
They were (are?) like a person going out of a game of golf in the morning knowing they have errands to accomplish by three in the afternoon. Distracted, their game is not in tact.
The question is how will they be THIS year? Not sure. They continue to hang on to Jim Haslette despite the fact that players do not respect him. That's Haslette's fault.
On the positive side, their defense was drasticly improved last season and figures to be more of the same this year. Deuce McAllister had a career year and word is he'll be even better this year. Joe Horn is, well, Joe Horn. Awefully talented and lives up to it consistently. With a good running game, respectable defense, and good recievers, the only missing piece of the puzzle is the QB and Coach.
Once again last year Aaron Brooks played inconsistent, erratic (fumblitis), and well below his potential. His leadership ability is questionable at best as he continues to scoff when he should be focussing. I personally do not believe Haslette is the right coach; but I do think the Saints are talented enough to win despite him.
If Brooks gets his head straight, look out. The Saints can hang with anyone, ANYONE, in the leaque; they can win their division and go deep into the playoffs. They even could conceivably go to the Superbowl. What I mean is that all the ingredients are there.
But that's a big if. Do I think they will? Probably not. New Orleans has a long history of failure. They have a long history of marketing players just when they are hitting their prime. Buy low, farm them, sell high. That is their history. An 11-5 season would not surprise me. Nor would a 6-10. Flip a coin, but they're not going to the big dance.
The Carolina Panthers are basicly the same team that went all the way last year. Makes you wonder how it is that fully ten out of the other 15 NFC teams are either favored above or equal to the Panthers regarding who will win the NFC. Their are 12 teams ahead of them to win the bowl. Go figure.
At 12-1 and 20-1 respectively, those are not bad odds for the Panthers who still have everything necessary to go back. The question is will they? Probably not. When you look at teams that repeat a SB appearance, you don't get an image of the Panthers who relied on 4th-quarter comebacks in 7 of their wins last season. When you talk about going two years straight, you're usually talking about Farve-led Packers, Montana-led 49ers, Elway-led Broncos, or Brady-led Patriots (my current choice in the AFC). You know, those kinda' teams. Don't look for the Panthers to go back. Will they win their division? The NFC South is wide open in my opinion with virtually all four teams capable and all four on their own little bubbles.
Then are are the Falcons. The Falcons are my 'lean' to win this division. If Dan Reeves were still there, I would lock it up as my choice. But the verdict is out on how young Jim Mora Jr is going to work out his first year. The feeling here is that something special is happening down in the New York of the South and that we are in for a treat. Watching how teams are going to stop Vick and Price is going to be fun.
Vick is the most exciting player in my 25-years of football. If you successfully cover Price and contain Vick, you have conceded the run game--which makes the Falcons a winning team provided the D'Angelo-led defense improves. It will. If you stop the run, you will inevitably give up chunks of yardage to either Price or Vick. It is my belief that this team will score at will provided:
A.) The are coached right.
B.) Vick is given--and takes--free reign.
C.) Vick remains healthy (slides).
All Vick has to do is accept the 40-yard run with a slide and concede the 45-yarder with a concussion. Mark my words, if Vick plays the way he likes to play and doesn't try to be something he's not (a pocket passer), then opposing defenses will get real tired real fast of him making them look like grade school sandlot players. Yeah. He's that good.
My concern is that sooner or later someone will take a shot at him--even if he slides. That would be a bummer, because he's fun to watch. With that thought in mind, I wonder if he won't maybe restrain himself a bit (could you blame him) to the detriment of the team. I suspect we will see a more conservative Vick; more cautious and choosey about when he runs. If I were Jim Jr, I would be tempted not to use Vick and Price to win games, but rather use the THREAT of Vick and Price to establish a run-first football team--the end result of which is a winning team. My choice to win the NFC South at this time is the Falcons.
NFC WEST:
Okay so the Cards are looking up. The OVER 4.5 team wins sure looks inviting. But I'm looking for Superbowl Teams, Division Winners, and Conference front-runners and do not expect the Cards to be any of the above this year.
Dennis Green will bring improvement because he's a winner. Although one has to wonder if he could not get the '98 Vikings to the Big Dance, it is highly unlikely he will get the Cards there. Ever. Much less this season.
The Cardinals are like the Lions and Saints. They have a long history of losing and falling short. I dont' expect that to change as they are stacked in the same division with the Rams and Seahawks. Forty-niners? Hey, Cards just might beat'em out for third place.
You heard it here first (or not). The Niners are toast. They will battle the Cards for last place and I believe the Niners just might win that one--last place that is.
Meanwhile you're left with a 2-team run at the NFC West Title. Namely the Rams and Seahawks. The Rams are still stacked with talent. The only problem is they got rid of the QB that got'em there. Dont get me wrong, Bulger is the man. But Bulger could not get it done when it counted.
The night before their final game at Detriot, Coach Martz told his team that "THEIR playoffs begin tomorrow". That's all the pressure it took to rattle Bulger as he had the worst start of his career in losing 30-20 as 11-point faves against one of the worst teams in the league. Bottom line: He didn't get it done when it counted the most. Not at Detriot and not at home against the Panthers.
Someone will say, "But Warner's numbers are horid in his last eight starts". Granted. But he was playing injured. I will admit that teams figured a way to 'rattle' Warner. But I will also say he has one of the quickest releases in the League and that when he is not playing injured he wins.
Consider the game when he fumbled six times. Ok you can watch film and say, "Hey, THAT decision or THIS decision had NOTHING to do with his hand injury".
Oh. That game. The game when Mike Martz found out Warner was playing with a mild concussion AFTER the game and AFTER six fumbles. He looked totally disoriented out there. Listen up folks, I dont' know how Warner will pan out in New York with limited pass protection, but I believe the Rams made a mistake by letting him go before they reviewed how he would perform with a healthy hand/wrist and when he plays conscious.
Bank it: The Rams messed up, and Martz is the most overrated, aloof, boneheaded coach in the game. I'm not trying to be mean ok. He's a great guy. But so many of his gametime head coaching decisions are very questionable, and if he didn't have so much talent in his hands, the team would've already collapsed.
It will be very interesting to see how Bulger performs now that Warner is gone. Some (if not most or all) of the beliefs are that he will excell now that Warner is not over his shoulder--now that the Rams are "his" team. Careful here folks. Remember what we learned from Bulger last year: he's not a pressure QB. And if anything brings pressure, it's the load he's about to take on. That is, being the unchallenged leader. I would be very careful backing the Rams until we see what's going to happen. Their talent is deep enough to sustain, but a collapse to .500 would not surprise me in the least.
The Winner of the NFC West will be the Seahawks. They have the coach, Hasselbeck is 'getting it', they have the running game in Alexander, and their young defense is improving. The Seahawks won't be challenged for their division...not even by the Rams.
AFC NORTH
The AFC North Division is a no-brainer for me--atleast right now. As usual, final determinations are pending pre-season play. The Browns do not have the coach to get the team to play at the level of continuity necessary to make a real impact. The addition of Garcia will be a big improvement, but he cannot carry the team by himself. He's on the back side of his career and I feel that if he was going to get it done it would've been with the 49ers when Mariucci was coach.
The Bengals began to look like they were getting things together, but it wouldn't surprise me to see Marvin Lewis struggle his sophomore year like so many coaches do. On top of that, they let Dillon get away. If that's not bad enough, they're talking about Palmer taking the reigns. Are you kidding me? Just when Kitna comes off his career best year and is really beginning to come into his own and the Bungles are benching him? We'll see if they stick with that decision.
If they name Palmer as the starter, he'll get hammered in their opener against the Jets as New York HC Herman Edwards is determined to not get off to a slow start this year. With Pennington healthy, the Jets will look to return to the form of 2 years ago and you can expect them to bring the pressure on Palmer. Somehow they let Dillon get away just when things were looking up for them. That's why they call them the Bungals.
The Steelers are in disarray. Having said that, if they can somehow return to their preferred running game and patch up the defense, then Bill Cowher might be able to make a late season run once they gel for a Wild Card birth. I wouldn't hold my breath.
This division belongs to the Ravens this year. Billick, Lewis & Lewis is all we need to know. Do not underestimate the Ravens chances of going deep into the playoffs. Boller will be improved over last year and the Ravens seem to have all the ingredients necessary to get the job done. This could be the sleeper team. We'll have to wait and see what Pre-Season tells us.
The AFC NORTH Title goes to the Baltimore Ravens. In contrast to the NFC South where the title is up for grabs, the AFC North Winner will not be challenged. Ravens all the way.
AFC EAST:
The Dolphins are toast. Put a fork in them. The are the most underachieving team for 3 year running. Wannstedt should've already been gone, but instead they inked him to a new deal. Ricky Williams is gone but he will be back. At 27, he will either be back next year or he will regret not staying in the game. That's another story. His loss will make it that much harder for the Dolphins to win the division. It will also give Wannstedt an excuse when they don't.
I dont' see anyone challenging the Patriots for this division. They've got something special going on in Beantown. If that wasn't enough, they had one of the best drafts in the League and picked up Corey Dillon. Wow. Every now and then a special team comes along. This is one of them and one of my AFC choices to go to the Superbowl. What the Pats must do to go back:
1.) Avoid the poison.
The release of Lawyer Milloy 4 days before the season kicked off was genious. As though the Pats D did not have enough troubles and injuries and Belichick has the audacity to release "ME"? But, "I'm Lawyer Milloy! Don't you know how special I am?"
Even Ty Law was critical of Beli's decision. But Billy know what he was doing. Like Bill Parcels and John Fox, he understands the importance of lancing the poison off the team. If Ty Law isn't careful, he's next. You heard it hear first. Don't laugh, Beli took a bunch of nobody's last year and performed a miracle on the ice; er, grid.
2.) A healthy Tom Brady
If Brady had not suffered off the field probs after his first SB win, this team might have gone three straight times. Brady overcame his problems and got back on track last year. There's no reason to believe he won't be every bit as effective this year in spreading the ball around with accuracy.
That is basicly it. That's all the Pats have to do to go back. Keep Brady healthy and avoid the poison. The question is WILL they?
The Bills still have not recooperated from the loss of Peerless Price, and Bledsoe might be wishing he had remained a back up at New England. Naaaah. Bledsoe is a born starter, but his Bill's chances of winning out over the Pats or even Jets are not that good.
The Jets are a different story. I really like Herman Edwards and think he's got a good thing going on in New York. After Pennington's breakout season, they were so pumped going into last year. But then came the Redskins drive-by shooting of the Jets roster and Pennington's injury. To silence the critics, Vinny and the Jets were given an opening day matchup against...the Redskins. They lost.
Having blown their opportunity to silence their critics and with Penny on the benchy, the Jets season went sour from there. Not this year. Edwards will look to right the ship and bounce right back, and they have the team to do it provided Chad stays healthy. Look for the Jets to avoid another slow start in their opener by welcoming Palmer (Bengals) to the NFL in a rather discomforting fashion. It's a home game for the Jets and they will win it to get their season started right and returning to 2004 form. New York should finish a strong second behind the Pats leaving the Bills and Dolphins in the wake.
AFC SOUTH
The Jaquars were more competitive than realized last year and can be expected to be improved in virtually every area this season. Only problem is they have to overtake the Colts to win that division, and that is not going to happen.
The Colts need just a little help on defense to take it to the next level...the Superbowl. A SB appearance would not surprise me or anyone for that matter. At season's end last year my initial feelings for 2004 regarding the SB was a Packers-Colts matchup.
At this point--and still pending pre-season observations--I've got the Colts as my 3rd choice behind the Pats and Broncos in the AFC.
Tennessee seems to be a team in limbo. Every year they outperform their expectations. While I wouldn't be surprised to see them do that again, I'm am more inclined to think they'll fall off a bit. Be interesting to see how they respond to loss of Eddie George. While he wasn't the bread and butter last year that he used to be, the threat was still there. His loss could be felt by the Titans in the win column.
Texans should bring up the rear, continuing to play solid defense and struggle offensivley. They've been a good UNDER team the last few years, but Vegas has caught on; and the smallest improvement on offense would make me leary of going UNDER in their games.
AFC WEST
Once again the Chiefs failed to significantly address their defensive woes, and for the 3rd straight year their defense will be their achilles heel. Save for a handful of Dante' Hall plays, and the Chiefs would've wound up with a disappointing season last year. You cannot reasonably expect to rely on those kinda' plays to help carry a team. The Chiefs will not win the AFC West this season.
KC's season will begin with a loss to the New AFC West Champs--the Denver Broncos. I expect the Broncos to win the west and make a run for the SB. Plummer was 9-3 as a starter and one of those losses was in their finale when they pulled their starters.
While the Pony's lost Portis, they have been a breeding ground for running backs for nearly two decades, and you can expect more of the same this year with Griffin and their draft choices. Broncos put it together this year and will win this division without a challenge. In addition, they are my preliminary choice to represent the AFC in the Superbowl.
The Chargers are, well, the Chargers and will battle the underachieving, aged Raiders for the priviledge of last place in the West.
NFC CHAMPIONSHIP: Seattle vs Packers
AFC CHAMPIONSHIP: Patriots vs Broncos
SUPERBOWL: Packers to win over the Broncos
Tough call to go against the Pats to repeat. They have all the ingredients of one of the rare teams able to repeat; but I"m gonna go with the Denver Broncos since they were originally my second choice. I'm gonna go with history and say the Pats--for some reason or another--will not make a repeat appearance; making the Broncos my pick at this point.
dave
My NFC Choice (as of now) to make the Big Dance will not be a sleeper this year. I'm picking the Green Bay Packers in the NFC. They are the team I have my Pre-Season eye on. Unless I see something in the Pre-Season significant enough to unseat my thinking on this year's version of the Packers, I will stick with them. I expect their pre-season will confirm my suspicions.
All the ingredients seem to be in place. Let me first offer a rebuttal to three probable objections to my choice of the Packers as NFC reps in the SB; those objections namely would be the Eagles, Farve, and 4th and 26.
Firstly, right now there are some who are expecting Brett Farve to begin his downward career spiral. I do not belive that. If anything, I suspect he is in for an all-time best. His 41-7 thrashing of the Raiders on Monday Night and one day after the death of his father says it all. I believe that game was reactionary and representative of what you can expect this SEASON to be for him and his Packers. I believe he will respond this SEASON the way he responded in that GAME.
Two, some are speculating that the blown 4th down and 26 conversion on the part of the Packers defense (which kept them from going to the NFC Championship Game) will somehow have a hangover effect. Hogwash. The Packers D is in tact. They improved dramatically the latter half of the Season, allowing only one 100-yard rushing game and only one 300-yard game in route to a 7-1 finish in the final 8 games. Remember what I said about strong finishes the prior year! It is often an indicator of things to come!
And three, the Eagles. Many are saying that no one will be able to stop the Eagles this year. Wow. T.O. must be really magical. The idea that somehow T.O. is the solution to a team that has been in-tact, gelled, and made 3 straight NFC Championship appearances is, to me, rather arrogant. You heard it here first: The Eagles will not even win their division, much less make it to the NFC Game again.
Andy Reid has done a remarkable job and remains one of the league's better coaches, but they have run out of excuses for not making the big one; and the Kearse/Owen combo is not the answer in my opinion. Cowboys win the East, and the Packers will be the team to beat in the NFC.
Having addressed those objections, let me offer a couple other notes...
I've already mentioned the rise of the Packer D. In addtion to that, for the first time in the Brett Farve era, the Packers had more running plays than passing plays. That is a move in the right direction for a SB run.
Not only did the Packers finish up strong last year, but note that they had the smallest margin in their losses of anyone in the League. They also had the largest margin in their wins of any team in the league. They were #1 in the Red Zone on Offense, and, you guessed it, Number One in the Red Zone on Defense.
Perk up non-believers. The Pack is back. They fell one play short of the NFC Championship Game last year. This year they have a revived defense, a hungry Farve with a new sense of urgency looking for 1 more SB, a running game, young receivers, and the right opening day game to get their head straight right off the bat:
PACKERS @ PANTHERS on Monday Night Football
Care to guess who I'll be on?
Speaking of the Packers, the NFC North has but one serious contender this year other than the Packers, and that would be the Vikings. Having said that, wouldn't it be interesting if the Bears snuck up on everyone. Despite improving from 4 wins in '02 to 7 wins last year, Jauron is gone. His replacement Lovie Smith is a strong defensive coordinator from the St Louis Rams.
Smith opted to use 4 of his first 5 draft picks on the defensive side of the ball. If he's wise enough to commit to a running game, their current strength, the Bears could land a .500 year or better. Or not. They're in a tough division that's getting even tougher with the Lions looking to improve this year as well.
As enthusiastic as the Bears might be, they could easily start out 0-2 on the season and in the division. That could put an early damper on things. Week Two has them pitted at Green Bay, a team Lovie is determined to beat. If the Bears focus to hard on that Week Two match up and overlook their opener against the hapless Lions, Mariucci could quietly sneak in and out with a win at Chicago as he is eager to snap their road losing streak to start the season out right for the improving Lions. In that scenario the Bears could find themselves shell-shocked right of the bat while attempting to bounce back at Green Bay.
I'm searching for potential Superbowl Prospects, Conference Champs, and Division Champs. The bottom line for the Bears is that they do not appear to fit in to any of those categories this year. Ditto for the Lions...
If you haven't read Barry Sanders book, check it out. He details, finally, why he retired. He makes a compelling case for a Lion's organization that is not serious about winning Championships but rather making money. That really rang true for me being as I live only 1 hour from New Orleans--a team with a history of buying low, training players, and selling high. I really like Steve Mariucci as a person and coach, but the feeling here is that if he could not take the San Francisco 49ers to the bowl, I doubt it will happen in Detroit.
Which leaves us with the Vikings. Talk about underachieving. I was really high on the Vikes last year and on Mike Tice. I correctly predicted a career year for Randy Moss due to his off-season improvements in work ethic and attitude. While the Vikings seem the more obvious choice than the Packers to win the NFC North and possibly the NFC Title, I have a problem with a team/coach/ system/whatever that starts out 6-0 and misses the playoffs for no apparent reason. It's not like they amassed a multitude of injuries to key players.
Secondly, when it came down to the nitty gritty in the final game of the season, on the final drive, and the final play, they failed. They gave up a TD to the worst team in the League. They lost. That's all I have to see to evaluate where they are. I expect more of the same this year: Underachievers falling short. This may seem like crazy reasoning, but consider last year's Eagles...
Again they were perennial faves to win the NFC, and I maintained strongly that if they could not get it done in 2002 with home field throughout the playoffs, what would be different in 2003? Amazingly, they are favored once again this year. And once again they will not get it done; but that's another subject.
The point is that sometimes you can eliminate non-contenders even if they appear to be contenders; and you can do that based on the crazy type reasoning I am using. With that in mind, again, the Vikings are not on my contenders list. What happened last year? What happened? They lost to the worst team in the league when in the most important game of their season. Period.
In setting out to pick SB contenders, eliminating the NON-contenders first makes the search easier. So here' what I have so far in my search for the NFC's Superbowl representative:
NON-CONTENDERS:
Lions...for what I hope are obvious reasons.
Bears...ditto.
Vikings...something wrong in the camp; no excuses, they did not get it done when it counted.
CONTENDERS:
Packers...QB, run game, improving D, legacy, confidence, etc.
As you can see, weeding out the non-contenders will quickly narrow down the list of possibilities, and you'll be left with some nice futures plays. Of course, these are just preliminary choices and will be subject to the scrutiny of Pre-Season.
NFC EAST:
In a division full of hall of fame coaches you can expect some competitive divisional rivalries. This could be the new black and blue division of the NFL. In picking a division winner, I'll look first to disount the team or teams that I do not expect to win it. Secondly, I'll look to defense first to pick my choice in the NFC.
The most glaring standout to me as far as who will NOT win this division is the New York Giants. Their defense is in shambles. While I expect they will be improved on the defensive side of the ball, and while the addition of Warner and Coughlin are attractive, I do not think this will be enough in their first year.
Perhaps in another division the aforementioned additions might effect a one-eighty in standings for the Gints, but not against the likes of Bill Parcells and his Dallas "D", Andy Reid and his SB Favored Eagles, or Joe Gibbs and his revamped and revised Redskins complete with the addition of Clinton Portis and Mark Breunel and what I expect to be a top five defense. Bottom line is someone has to finish in the cellar, and I believe it will be the Giants even if they manage 7 wins.
As this year's SB favorites, the Eagles are obviously the favorite to win the NFC East. While I do not doubt their potential, I question how this team will respond to having lost, again, in the NFC Championship Game. That makes three straight and two straight in their back yard. Something just isn't right. They have no excuses. Prior to last year's game, it was generally understood that this was the year; that this team may not ever play again in it's [then] current form. Somehow they lost again.
The high-profile additions of key impact players like Jevon Kearse and Terrel Owens may make a difference, but I wonder if the difference they make in talent will be off-set by the interuption in continuity. To me, the Eagles had gelled over the years. They were about as good as they could be, and I'm not sure the addition of slightly better talent in a couple of positions will be of any benefit--atleast not until Philly does some soul searching and purges themselves of that nagging problem: why can't we win the NFC Title?
Whatever the reason for their failing again when it counts the most, I don't know what the answer is; but I am convince what the answer is NOT. The answer is NOT that they have failed because they were lacking Terrel Owens and Jevon Kearse.
Andy Reid and his Eagles have now had double-digit ATS Winning Seasons for three straight years--a rare feat indeed and a testimony to Reid's ability to keep his team executing and keep them focussed through adversity. However, that should be a warning sign for potential Eagle backers. As though they will not already be overrated enough, add to that the additions of Kearse and Owens and you might find them to be laying a few too many points more often than not.
I would be very careful of the Eagles--for or against--early in the Season. This is a potential pivotal season for them. A collapse would not surprise me in the least. But in light of Reid's genious, neither would another Superbowl Run. With the rise of talent in the NFC East, the 3rd NFC Title Game loss in a row, and 3 straight double-digit ATS winning years, I am more inclined to expect a letdown from the Eagles this year. I do not expect them to be in this year's NFC title game. Going further, I do not expect them to win their division.
Which leaves us with two possible teams to win the NFC East: The Redskins and Cowboys. While I expect the Redskins to be VASTLY improved--indeed they are building quite an impressive thing there in DC, I'm going to give the nod to the Dallas Cowboys as the NFC East Champs.
The Redskins should be a very real threat in 2005 or 2006 (yes, that soon), and they could very easily compete with the Eagles for second place this year. Am I saying that the Eagles could finish third in the division? Yes. That would not surprise me at all. I expect the Redskins to battle them for second.
This leaves the Cowboys. A top-five defense last year, the more remarkable thing was that they were not that bad on offense considering that no one expected them to be as effective and they were with the young QB's. Dallas has the coach and the defense to win the division. With the additions of Testeverde and Keyshawn--two players who excelled under Parcells with the Jets, they now have the extra little help they needed on offense. The one thing that is in the air is the running game. If the Cowboy's offensive line can play up to snuff, and if Parcells appoint a back and commit to him, a four-yard per carry average is probable and will be enough to make a SB run. If not, the pressure will be on Vinny; something good enough for the NFC East but not good enough for a SB run.
I'm a Parcels believer. He took the same basic team that won 5 games for three straight seasons and turned them into a playoff team that outgained 13 of 16 of their regular season opponents. In the Net Yardage category, they were favored in every single game last year--the only team in the league that can say that. While my final analysis is pending Pre-Season, at this point I like the Cowboys to make a run for the SB this year.
The NFC South is somewhat wide open. Here's what you got...
The Bucs are looking to rebound off last season's disappointment, but they have lost Lynch, Sapp, and Keyshawn. Like'm or not, they're key losses. My feeling is that the Bucs have been very good for a very long time and that their run is over.
Don't forget, the Bucs were SB contenders several years prior to Gruden's arrival. Dungy could not get them over the hump. So I see them as a team that is either on the decline or at best in a rebuilding year of sorts. However, if anyone can overcome all that, it would be Chucky.
The Saints remain a mystery. An enigma. Along with the Dolphins they are the biggest underachievers in the League. I correctly predicted their destiny last season in my NFL Preview, suggesting that they were a distracted team; full of talent but lacking the focus to execute consistently.
They were (are?) like a person going out of a game of golf in the morning knowing they have errands to accomplish by three in the afternoon. Distracted, their game is not in tact.
The question is how will they be THIS year? Not sure. They continue to hang on to Jim Haslette despite the fact that players do not respect him. That's Haslette's fault.
On the positive side, their defense was drasticly improved last season and figures to be more of the same this year. Deuce McAllister had a career year and word is he'll be even better this year. Joe Horn is, well, Joe Horn. Awefully talented and lives up to it consistently. With a good running game, respectable defense, and good recievers, the only missing piece of the puzzle is the QB and Coach.
Once again last year Aaron Brooks played inconsistent, erratic (fumblitis), and well below his potential. His leadership ability is questionable at best as he continues to scoff when he should be focussing. I personally do not believe Haslette is the right coach; but I do think the Saints are talented enough to win despite him.
If Brooks gets his head straight, look out. The Saints can hang with anyone, ANYONE, in the leaque; they can win their division and go deep into the playoffs. They even could conceivably go to the Superbowl. What I mean is that all the ingredients are there.
But that's a big if. Do I think they will? Probably not. New Orleans has a long history of failure. They have a long history of marketing players just when they are hitting their prime. Buy low, farm them, sell high. That is their history. An 11-5 season would not surprise me. Nor would a 6-10. Flip a coin, but they're not going to the big dance.
The Carolina Panthers are basicly the same team that went all the way last year. Makes you wonder how it is that fully ten out of the other 15 NFC teams are either favored above or equal to the Panthers regarding who will win the NFC. Their are 12 teams ahead of them to win the bowl. Go figure.
At 12-1 and 20-1 respectively, those are not bad odds for the Panthers who still have everything necessary to go back. The question is will they? Probably not. When you look at teams that repeat a SB appearance, you don't get an image of the Panthers who relied on 4th-quarter comebacks in 7 of their wins last season. When you talk about going two years straight, you're usually talking about Farve-led Packers, Montana-led 49ers, Elway-led Broncos, or Brady-led Patriots (my current choice in the AFC). You know, those kinda' teams. Don't look for the Panthers to go back. Will they win their division? The NFC South is wide open in my opinion with virtually all four teams capable and all four on their own little bubbles.
Then are are the Falcons. The Falcons are my 'lean' to win this division. If Dan Reeves were still there, I would lock it up as my choice. But the verdict is out on how young Jim Mora Jr is going to work out his first year. The feeling here is that something special is happening down in the New York of the South and that we are in for a treat. Watching how teams are going to stop Vick and Price is going to be fun.
Vick is the most exciting player in my 25-years of football. If you successfully cover Price and contain Vick, you have conceded the run game--which makes the Falcons a winning team provided the D'Angelo-led defense improves. It will. If you stop the run, you will inevitably give up chunks of yardage to either Price or Vick. It is my belief that this team will score at will provided:
A.) The are coached right.
B.) Vick is given--and takes--free reign.
C.) Vick remains healthy (slides).
All Vick has to do is accept the 40-yard run with a slide and concede the 45-yarder with a concussion. Mark my words, if Vick plays the way he likes to play and doesn't try to be something he's not (a pocket passer), then opposing defenses will get real tired real fast of him making them look like grade school sandlot players. Yeah. He's that good.
My concern is that sooner or later someone will take a shot at him--even if he slides. That would be a bummer, because he's fun to watch. With that thought in mind, I wonder if he won't maybe restrain himself a bit (could you blame him) to the detriment of the team. I suspect we will see a more conservative Vick; more cautious and choosey about when he runs. If I were Jim Jr, I would be tempted not to use Vick and Price to win games, but rather use the THREAT of Vick and Price to establish a run-first football team--the end result of which is a winning team. My choice to win the NFC South at this time is the Falcons.
NFC WEST:
Okay so the Cards are looking up. The OVER 4.5 team wins sure looks inviting. But I'm looking for Superbowl Teams, Division Winners, and Conference front-runners and do not expect the Cards to be any of the above this year.
Dennis Green will bring improvement because he's a winner. Although one has to wonder if he could not get the '98 Vikings to the Big Dance, it is highly unlikely he will get the Cards there. Ever. Much less this season.
The Cardinals are like the Lions and Saints. They have a long history of losing and falling short. I dont' expect that to change as they are stacked in the same division with the Rams and Seahawks. Forty-niners? Hey, Cards just might beat'em out for third place.
You heard it here first (or not). The Niners are toast. They will battle the Cards for last place and I believe the Niners just might win that one--last place that is.
Meanwhile you're left with a 2-team run at the NFC West Title. Namely the Rams and Seahawks. The Rams are still stacked with talent. The only problem is they got rid of the QB that got'em there. Dont get me wrong, Bulger is the man. But Bulger could not get it done when it counted.
The night before their final game at Detriot, Coach Martz told his team that "THEIR playoffs begin tomorrow". That's all the pressure it took to rattle Bulger as he had the worst start of his career in losing 30-20 as 11-point faves against one of the worst teams in the league. Bottom line: He didn't get it done when it counted the most. Not at Detriot and not at home against the Panthers.
Someone will say, "But Warner's numbers are horid in his last eight starts". Granted. But he was playing injured. I will admit that teams figured a way to 'rattle' Warner. But I will also say he has one of the quickest releases in the League and that when he is not playing injured he wins.
Consider the game when he fumbled six times. Ok you can watch film and say, "Hey, THAT decision or THIS decision had NOTHING to do with his hand injury".
Oh. That game. The game when Mike Martz found out Warner was playing with a mild concussion AFTER the game and AFTER six fumbles. He looked totally disoriented out there. Listen up folks, I dont' know how Warner will pan out in New York with limited pass protection, but I believe the Rams made a mistake by letting him go before they reviewed how he would perform with a healthy hand/wrist and when he plays conscious.
Bank it: The Rams messed up, and Martz is the most overrated, aloof, boneheaded coach in the game. I'm not trying to be mean ok. He's a great guy. But so many of his gametime head coaching decisions are very questionable, and if he didn't have so much talent in his hands, the team would've already collapsed.
It will be very interesting to see how Bulger performs now that Warner is gone. Some (if not most or all) of the beliefs are that he will excell now that Warner is not over his shoulder--now that the Rams are "his" team. Careful here folks. Remember what we learned from Bulger last year: he's not a pressure QB. And if anything brings pressure, it's the load he's about to take on. That is, being the unchallenged leader. I would be very careful backing the Rams until we see what's going to happen. Their talent is deep enough to sustain, but a collapse to .500 would not surprise me in the least.
The Winner of the NFC West will be the Seahawks. They have the coach, Hasselbeck is 'getting it', they have the running game in Alexander, and their young defense is improving. The Seahawks won't be challenged for their division...not even by the Rams.
AFC NORTH
The AFC North Division is a no-brainer for me--atleast right now. As usual, final determinations are pending pre-season play. The Browns do not have the coach to get the team to play at the level of continuity necessary to make a real impact. The addition of Garcia will be a big improvement, but he cannot carry the team by himself. He's on the back side of his career and I feel that if he was going to get it done it would've been with the 49ers when Mariucci was coach.
The Bengals began to look like they were getting things together, but it wouldn't surprise me to see Marvin Lewis struggle his sophomore year like so many coaches do. On top of that, they let Dillon get away. If that's not bad enough, they're talking about Palmer taking the reigns. Are you kidding me? Just when Kitna comes off his career best year and is really beginning to come into his own and the Bungles are benching him? We'll see if they stick with that decision.
If they name Palmer as the starter, he'll get hammered in their opener against the Jets as New York HC Herman Edwards is determined to not get off to a slow start this year. With Pennington healthy, the Jets will look to return to the form of 2 years ago and you can expect them to bring the pressure on Palmer. Somehow they let Dillon get away just when things were looking up for them. That's why they call them the Bungals.
The Steelers are in disarray. Having said that, if they can somehow return to their preferred running game and patch up the defense, then Bill Cowher might be able to make a late season run once they gel for a Wild Card birth. I wouldn't hold my breath.
This division belongs to the Ravens this year. Billick, Lewis & Lewis is all we need to know. Do not underestimate the Ravens chances of going deep into the playoffs. Boller will be improved over last year and the Ravens seem to have all the ingredients necessary to get the job done. This could be the sleeper team. We'll have to wait and see what Pre-Season tells us.
The AFC NORTH Title goes to the Baltimore Ravens. In contrast to the NFC South where the title is up for grabs, the AFC North Winner will not be challenged. Ravens all the way.
AFC EAST:
The Dolphins are toast. Put a fork in them. The are the most underachieving team for 3 year running. Wannstedt should've already been gone, but instead they inked him to a new deal. Ricky Williams is gone but he will be back. At 27, he will either be back next year or he will regret not staying in the game. That's another story. His loss will make it that much harder for the Dolphins to win the division. It will also give Wannstedt an excuse when they don't.
I dont' see anyone challenging the Patriots for this division. They've got something special going on in Beantown. If that wasn't enough, they had one of the best drafts in the League and picked up Corey Dillon. Wow. Every now and then a special team comes along. This is one of them and one of my AFC choices to go to the Superbowl. What the Pats must do to go back:
1.) Avoid the poison.
The release of Lawyer Milloy 4 days before the season kicked off was genious. As though the Pats D did not have enough troubles and injuries and Belichick has the audacity to release "ME"? But, "I'm Lawyer Milloy! Don't you know how special I am?"
Even Ty Law was critical of Beli's decision. But Billy know what he was doing. Like Bill Parcels and John Fox, he understands the importance of lancing the poison off the team. If Ty Law isn't careful, he's next. You heard it hear first. Don't laugh, Beli took a bunch of nobody's last year and performed a miracle on the ice; er, grid.
2.) A healthy Tom Brady
If Brady had not suffered off the field probs after his first SB win, this team might have gone three straight times. Brady overcame his problems and got back on track last year. There's no reason to believe he won't be every bit as effective this year in spreading the ball around with accuracy.
That is basicly it. That's all the Pats have to do to go back. Keep Brady healthy and avoid the poison. The question is WILL they?
The Bills still have not recooperated from the loss of Peerless Price, and Bledsoe might be wishing he had remained a back up at New England. Naaaah. Bledsoe is a born starter, but his Bill's chances of winning out over the Pats or even Jets are not that good.
The Jets are a different story. I really like Herman Edwards and think he's got a good thing going on in New York. After Pennington's breakout season, they were so pumped going into last year. But then came the Redskins drive-by shooting of the Jets roster and Pennington's injury. To silence the critics, Vinny and the Jets were given an opening day matchup against...the Redskins. They lost.
Having blown their opportunity to silence their critics and with Penny on the benchy, the Jets season went sour from there. Not this year. Edwards will look to right the ship and bounce right back, and they have the team to do it provided Chad stays healthy. Look for the Jets to avoid another slow start in their opener by welcoming Palmer (Bengals) to the NFL in a rather discomforting fashion. It's a home game for the Jets and they will win it to get their season started right and returning to 2004 form. New York should finish a strong second behind the Pats leaving the Bills and Dolphins in the wake.
AFC SOUTH
The Jaquars were more competitive than realized last year and can be expected to be improved in virtually every area this season. Only problem is they have to overtake the Colts to win that division, and that is not going to happen.
The Colts need just a little help on defense to take it to the next level...the Superbowl. A SB appearance would not surprise me or anyone for that matter. At season's end last year my initial feelings for 2004 regarding the SB was a Packers-Colts matchup.
At this point--and still pending pre-season observations--I've got the Colts as my 3rd choice behind the Pats and Broncos in the AFC.
Tennessee seems to be a team in limbo. Every year they outperform their expectations. While I wouldn't be surprised to see them do that again, I'm am more inclined to think they'll fall off a bit. Be interesting to see how they respond to loss of Eddie George. While he wasn't the bread and butter last year that he used to be, the threat was still there. His loss could be felt by the Titans in the win column.
Texans should bring up the rear, continuing to play solid defense and struggle offensivley. They've been a good UNDER team the last few years, but Vegas has caught on; and the smallest improvement on offense would make me leary of going UNDER in their games.
AFC WEST
Once again the Chiefs failed to significantly address their defensive woes, and for the 3rd straight year their defense will be their achilles heel. Save for a handful of Dante' Hall plays, and the Chiefs would've wound up with a disappointing season last year. You cannot reasonably expect to rely on those kinda' plays to help carry a team. The Chiefs will not win the AFC West this season.
KC's season will begin with a loss to the New AFC West Champs--the Denver Broncos. I expect the Broncos to win the west and make a run for the SB. Plummer was 9-3 as a starter and one of those losses was in their finale when they pulled their starters.
While the Pony's lost Portis, they have been a breeding ground for running backs for nearly two decades, and you can expect more of the same this year with Griffin and their draft choices. Broncos put it together this year and will win this division without a challenge. In addition, they are my preliminary choice to represent the AFC in the Superbowl.
The Chargers are, well, the Chargers and will battle the underachieving, aged Raiders for the priviledge of last place in the West.
NFC CHAMPIONSHIP: Seattle vs Packers
AFC CHAMPIONSHIP: Patriots vs Broncos
SUPERBOWL: Packers to win over the Broncos
Tough call to go against the Pats to repeat. They have all the ingredients of one of the rare teams able to repeat; but I"m gonna go with the Denver Broncos since they were originally my second choice. I'm gonna go with history and say the Pats--for some reason or another--will not make a repeat appearance; making the Broncos my pick at this point.
dave
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