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NFL PRESEASON GAMES--
LOOKING FOR EDGES
by Chuck Sippl, Senior Editor of THE GOLD SHEET
As is the case with many wagering options, many people don't understand preseason football. One of the first things they say is, "Who really knows what's going to happen in an exhibition game?" Many of them follow up that question with the observation, "How can you bet on an exhibition game? You're sick."
Not so. In the first place, who really knows what's going to happen in a regular-season NFL game? If that were so obvious, there would be many more rich guys walking around Las Vegas.
The fact is that in any football wager--preseason, regular-season, or postseason--all you're really looking for is a formful situation that has a high probability of playing to that form. As in the regular season, you should avoid getting financially involved with games that have strong, conflicting factors or those in which element "X" (key injuries, weather, a big class difference, etc.) make them hard to predict. But, I submit, if you can find an NFL exhibition game which has factors that tend to make it formful, it is just as valid a wagering vehicle as most others. That's why we study coaches' personalities and preseason preferences, peruse depth charts, learn about newcomers, and look for repeating tendencies. [Hey! What a surprise! That's what we do in the regular season, too!]
For example, I don't think it's happenstance that Denver's Mike Shanahan is 6-1-1 vs. the spread his last 8 games following a preseason loss. Or that it's pure coincidence Bill Belichick is 12-4-1 vs. the points in preseason since he took over the Patriots. There's something "going on" there, and it's nice for summer football fans if they know what it is.
Before reviewing some interesting angles in the preseason, it's good to have a general overview of exhibition football. This includes basic knowledge of the exhibition "formula" and "coaches' agreement" at work in many games. Here they are.
THE FORMULA
These days, more than ever, the majority of NFL coaches run their exhibition seasons according to a "formula." Keep in mind that in the salary-crazy days of 21st century, NFL preseason games are, in essence, practice games to provide summer TV product for the networks and to bring in extra revenue for the owners.
The current preseason formula (for teams playing the common four exhibitions) goes something like this.
Game One--Starters go a couple of series or about one quarter; top backups into the second half; then mostly reserves, rookies and free agents the rest of the way.
Game Two--Starters go most or all of the first half; backups deep into the third (or early fourth) quarter; reserves the rest of the way.
Game Three--This is usually a team's main dress rehearsal for opening day. Starters play one-half to three-quarters of the game, backups most of the rest of the way; reserves see action depending mostly on the situation.
Game Four--This is often a "throwaway" game for coaches, who are usually much more concerned about their opening-day opponent than they are about this practice finale. Starters often play only a couple of series or so; maybe less; some maybe not at all. Any key players with nagging injuries will be held out. Backups and reserves play the majority of the game, with promising youngsters getting one final chance to win a spot on the roster.
COACHES' AGREEMENT
In addition to the "formula," most NFL coaches now adhere to an unwritten preseason "coaches' agreement" that goes something like this.
"For the first two games, I will only use my starters against your starters, my backups against your backups, and my reserves against your reserves. I will not re-insert my starters or key backups late in the game just to help us get (or prevent) a decisive score just so my team can win the game. I will not use surprise, unorthodox blitzes on non-passing downs. And I will not go all out to block your punts and field-goal attempts (except at the very end) just so I can win. This agreement is null and void in the next-to-last game of the preseason, when it's every coach for himself. And you can do whatever you want in the final preseason game except injure my players, because I really don't care much about that game."
Fortunately for handicappers, there are still plenty of games in which the motivation, scheduling situations, and talent disparities are great enough to present some interesting wagering opportunities, regardless of the "formula" and the "coaches' agreement." The return of Bill Parcells (3-1 vs. the points last season with Dallas) increased that number last year. Sometimes incoming coaches want to "send a message" by having their new teams notch some wins, even if the preseason games don't count and are soon forgotten.
The NFL preseason can also be valuable to handicappers be helping them learn more about the teams and their new players. Handicappers can hone their skills, discipline, and money management prior to the start of the topsy-turvy regular season. No handicapper worth his salt ever lets his bankroll get seriously damaged in the preseason. Here are some situations to look for.
PRESEASON ANGLES
THE BIGGEST EDGE OF ALL. The biggest edge is, of course, when one team is going to employ vastly superior talent that day, in that game than is its preseason opponent. This situation can occur due to injuries, scheduling dynamics, or when one coach's determination for his team to emerge victorious is matched vs. another coach's semi-indifference. It rarely hurts to have the better-focused, superior players going for you in any contest, practice or not.
QUARTERBACKS. At no position in a football game is competence more important than at QB. Solid, veteran QBs are capable of striking for big plays, converting third downs, and grinding out some scoring drives in the preseason, even with a limited gameplan. But a lead that a couple of solid veteran QBs can build in three quarters, an intimidated, overmatched youngster can often throw away in few minutes. QB experience and talent are great to have in a preseason game; and the allotted QB playing time for each team is important to know. Often, the coaches make their QB plans public (however, some coaches like to change those plans once the game gets going). Many times, QB rotations make it to various Internet sites. Having veteran QBs fighting for a starting job or fighting make the final roster can be an edge in the preseason when they're matched against another team's inexperienced youngsters. [See our section on NFL Roster Changes in this magazine for an early list of each team's QBs.]
TEAMS THAT HAVE A GAME UNDER THEIR BELT. It has long been customary for several NFL teams each year to play five exhibitions (rather than the normal four)--usually because of the Hall of Fame Game or the NFL's promotional games in other countries. A week later, it's usually a good thing for those players to have a game under theirs belts. Teams with a game under their belt last year were 3-1 vs. the spread in their ensuing exhibition, and they're now 11-5-1 vs. the number the past three seasons when facing teams playing their first preseason game. (However, it will be noted here that such "game-under-the-belt" teams are only 28-26-1 vs. the number over the last ten years.)
0-2 TEAMS. Coaches, by and large, are a worrisome breed and tend to get very antsy when their team starts the preseason with two straight losses, even though they know the games don't count. Teams that lost their first two exhibitions last year were 3-2 vs. the spread in their next game (when not facing similar winless opponents). Over the last seven years, 0-2 teams are 30-21 vs. the spread; over the last 19 years, a solid 59 per cent.
JETS VS. GIANTS. In pre-game interviews, players on both N.Y. teams regularly contend this practice-game battle is "just another exhibition," not a contest for bragging rights in Gotham, the newspaper capital of the western hemisphere. But when the players get on the field, their actions speak differently. Going in to last year, the Jets had covered the previous 11 games in the series vs. their NFC cousins! The Jets failed to cover in 2003, but not by much, winning straight up 15-14 as a 2½-point favorite. But 11-1 vs. the spread ain't bad. (The Jets-Giants meeting nearly always takes place the next-to-last preseason game, i.e., the "dress rehearsal" game, when starters and veterans usually get their most extensive playing time.)
TOTALS. Many handicappers like to play the "under" in early preseason games, figuring that the use of numerous quarterbacks, so-called "vanilla" offenses, and semi-predictable defenses will tend to produce low-scoring games. In 2003 that line of thinking was right, but not by much, as there were 8 "overs" and 9 "unders" in the first full week of the preseason plus the previous week's Hall-of-Fame game. However, during the last 9 preseasons, "overs" in the first one-plus weeks of the campaign lead the "unders" 87-78. (That gap was larger until a 5-13 over-vs.-under mark in the first one-plus weeks of 2001.)
I hope this perspective helps you enjoy the NFL preseason this year. We have listed many interesting individual team trends at the bottom of each of our 2004 write-ups for the 32 NFL teams. As we've said so many times before, the key is searching for contests with favorable fundamental, psychological, and/or technical characteristics. At Las Vegas sportsbooks, football is still "king." And the NFL is the "king of kings." Even in practice games
NFL PRESEASON GAMES--
LOOKING FOR EDGES
by Chuck Sippl, Senior Editor of THE GOLD SHEET
As is the case with many wagering options, many people don't understand preseason football. One of the first things they say is, "Who really knows what's going to happen in an exhibition game?" Many of them follow up that question with the observation, "How can you bet on an exhibition game? You're sick."
Not so. In the first place, who really knows what's going to happen in a regular-season NFL game? If that were so obvious, there would be many more rich guys walking around Las Vegas.
The fact is that in any football wager--preseason, regular-season, or postseason--all you're really looking for is a formful situation that has a high probability of playing to that form. As in the regular season, you should avoid getting financially involved with games that have strong, conflicting factors or those in which element "X" (key injuries, weather, a big class difference, etc.) make them hard to predict. But, I submit, if you can find an NFL exhibition game which has factors that tend to make it formful, it is just as valid a wagering vehicle as most others. That's why we study coaches' personalities and preseason preferences, peruse depth charts, learn about newcomers, and look for repeating tendencies. [Hey! What a surprise! That's what we do in the regular season, too!]
For example, I don't think it's happenstance that Denver's Mike Shanahan is 6-1-1 vs. the spread his last 8 games following a preseason loss. Or that it's pure coincidence Bill Belichick is 12-4-1 vs. the points in preseason since he took over the Patriots. There's something "going on" there, and it's nice for summer football fans if they know what it is.
Before reviewing some interesting angles in the preseason, it's good to have a general overview of exhibition football. This includes basic knowledge of the exhibition "formula" and "coaches' agreement" at work in many games. Here they are.
THE FORMULA
These days, more than ever, the majority of NFL coaches run their exhibition seasons according to a "formula." Keep in mind that in the salary-crazy days of 21st century, NFL preseason games are, in essence, practice games to provide summer TV product for the networks and to bring in extra revenue for the owners.
The current preseason formula (for teams playing the common four exhibitions) goes something like this.
Game One--Starters go a couple of series or about one quarter; top backups into the second half; then mostly reserves, rookies and free agents the rest of the way.
Game Two--Starters go most or all of the first half; backups deep into the third (or early fourth) quarter; reserves the rest of the way.
Game Three--This is usually a team's main dress rehearsal for opening day. Starters play one-half to three-quarters of the game, backups most of the rest of the way; reserves see action depending mostly on the situation.
Game Four--This is often a "throwaway" game for coaches, who are usually much more concerned about their opening-day opponent than they are about this practice finale. Starters often play only a couple of series or so; maybe less; some maybe not at all. Any key players with nagging injuries will be held out. Backups and reserves play the majority of the game, with promising youngsters getting one final chance to win a spot on the roster.
COACHES' AGREEMENT
In addition to the "formula," most NFL coaches now adhere to an unwritten preseason "coaches' agreement" that goes something like this.
"For the first two games, I will only use my starters against your starters, my backups against your backups, and my reserves against your reserves. I will not re-insert my starters or key backups late in the game just to help us get (or prevent) a decisive score just so my team can win the game. I will not use surprise, unorthodox blitzes on non-passing downs. And I will not go all out to block your punts and field-goal attempts (except at the very end) just so I can win. This agreement is null and void in the next-to-last game of the preseason, when it's every coach for himself. And you can do whatever you want in the final preseason game except injure my players, because I really don't care much about that game."
Fortunately for handicappers, there are still plenty of games in which the motivation, scheduling situations, and talent disparities are great enough to present some interesting wagering opportunities, regardless of the "formula" and the "coaches' agreement." The return of Bill Parcells (3-1 vs. the points last season with Dallas) increased that number last year. Sometimes incoming coaches want to "send a message" by having their new teams notch some wins, even if the preseason games don't count and are soon forgotten.
The NFL preseason can also be valuable to handicappers be helping them learn more about the teams and their new players. Handicappers can hone their skills, discipline, and money management prior to the start of the topsy-turvy regular season. No handicapper worth his salt ever lets his bankroll get seriously damaged in the preseason. Here are some situations to look for.
PRESEASON ANGLES
THE BIGGEST EDGE OF ALL. The biggest edge is, of course, when one team is going to employ vastly superior talent that day, in that game than is its preseason opponent. This situation can occur due to injuries, scheduling dynamics, or when one coach's determination for his team to emerge victorious is matched vs. another coach's semi-indifference. It rarely hurts to have the better-focused, superior players going for you in any contest, practice or not.
QUARTERBACKS. At no position in a football game is competence more important than at QB. Solid, veteran QBs are capable of striking for big plays, converting third downs, and grinding out some scoring drives in the preseason, even with a limited gameplan. But a lead that a couple of solid veteran QBs can build in three quarters, an intimidated, overmatched youngster can often throw away in few minutes. QB experience and talent are great to have in a preseason game; and the allotted QB playing time for each team is important to know. Often, the coaches make their QB plans public (however, some coaches like to change those plans once the game gets going). Many times, QB rotations make it to various Internet sites. Having veteran QBs fighting for a starting job or fighting make the final roster can be an edge in the preseason when they're matched against another team's inexperienced youngsters. [See our section on NFL Roster Changes in this magazine for an early list of each team's QBs.]
TEAMS THAT HAVE A GAME UNDER THEIR BELT. It has long been customary for several NFL teams each year to play five exhibitions (rather than the normal four)--usually because of the Hall of Fame Game or the NFL's promotional games in other countries. A week later, it's usually a good thing for those players to have a game under theirs belts. Teams with a game under their belt last year were 3-1 vs. the spread in their ensuing exhibition, and they're now 11-5-1 vs. the number the past three seasons when facing teams playing their first preseason game. (However, it will be noted here that such "game-under-the-belt" teams are only 28-26-1 vs. the number over the last ten years.)
0-2 TEAMS. Coaches, by and large, are a worrisome breed and tend to get very antsy when their team starts the preseason with two straight losses, even though they know the games don't count. Teams that lost their first two exhibitions last year were 3-2 vs. the spread in their next game (when not facing similar winless opponents). Over the last seven years, 0-2 teams are 30-21 vs. the spread; over the last 19 years, a solid 59 per cent.
JETS VS. GIANTS. In pre-game interviews, players on both N.Y. teams regularly contend this practice-game battle is "just another exhibition," not a contest for bragging rights in Gotham, the newspaper capital of the western hemisphere. But when the players get on the field, their actions speak differently. Going in to last year, the Jets had covered the previous 11 games in the series vs. their NFC cousins! The Jets failed to cover in 2003, but not by much, winning straight up 15-14 as a 2½-point favorite. But 11-1 vs. the spread ain't bad. (The Jets-Giants meeting nearly always takes place the next-to-last preseason game, i.e., the "dress rehearsal" game, when starters and veterans usually get their most extensive playing time.)
TOTALS. Many handicappers like to play the "under" in early preseason games, figuring that the use of numerous quarterbacks, so-called "vanilla" offenses, and semi-predictable defenses will tend to produce low-scoring games. In 2003 that line of thinking was right, but not by much, as there were 8 "overs" and 9 "unders" in the first full week of the preseason plus the previous week's Hall-of-Fame game. However, during the last 9 preseasons, "overs" in the first one-plus weeks of the campaign lead the "unders" 87-78. (That gap was larger until a 5-13 over-vs.-under mark in the first one-plus weeks of 2001.)
I hope this perspective helps you enjoy the NFL preseason this year. We have listed many interesting individual team trends at the bottom of each of our 2004 write-ups for the 32 NFL teams. As we've said so many times before, the key is searching for contests with favorable fundamental, psychological, and/or technical characteristics. At Las Vegas sportsbooks, football is still "king." And the NFL is the "king of kings." Even in practice games