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**MemphisMafia** · 08-08-2004, 10:57 AM

Kill Bill :

Atlanta & Arizona Under 9 -102

Ortiz & Fossum

Game goes at 1:35 PM PST., 4:35 PM EST.

To start, Arizona is practically fielding a Triple-A line up team these days. Gone are Steve Finley and Roberto Alomar. In addition, Luis Gonzalez opted to have surgery on his elbow this past week and it will sideline him for the rest of 2004. The D-Backs offense couldn’t hit a lick before the departures, but now they are a flat out joke.

Arizona is putting up just 4.0 runs per game on the season while hitting just .253 with a pathetic .313 OBP. To put their offensive futility into perspective, Arizona, out of thirty teams, is ranked 28th in runs scored, 21st in home runs, 27th in RBI, 26th in batting AVG, 29th in OBP, 22nd in SLG, and 25th in OPS. And trust us, things don’t stand to improve anytime soon without their two biggest sluggers in Finley and Gonzo.

Compounding Arizona’s problems further is that they are facing an Atlanta staff that leads the Major Leagues with a 3.66 ERA. Yes, it’s business as usual for the Braves. Their hurler today Ortiz may not be anointed the team “Ace” but he has pitched like one this season.

Consider that he enters this contest with a rock solid 3.16 ERA overall and microscopic 1.23 ERA in his past three starts. The Braves are 6-15 (o/u) when Ortiz takes the hill this season and 0-5-1 (o/u) his past six starts overall.

Oh and the Braves bullpen sports a 1.43 ERA their past ten games overall and a 3.45 ERA on the season. This last stat places the Braves pen fifth best out of thirty MLB bullpens in the league.

Arizona will counter with Fossum today and without question he is our lone concern. His 6.00+ ERA is unsightly to say the least. There are a few aspects, however, that alleviate our concerns a bit. First is that Fossum is 6-9 (o/u) for the season and 0-2-1 (o/u) his past three overall. This has little to do with his pitching ability and everything to do with the D-Backs lack of run support (which we are counting on today). Moreover, Fossum is 1-5 (o/u) his past six August starts.

And the fact Atlanta has been winning with excellent starting pitching and a nasty bullpen, rather than any sort of offensive explosiveness will definitely be aiding our cause.

A few last notes of interest. Atlanta is a whopping 42-61 (o/u) on the season and 22-33 (o/u) when on the road. In addition, they are an astonishing 4-17-2 (o/u) their last twenty-three games and 11-26 (o/u) when the total is set between 9 and 9.5 this season.

For their part, Arizona is 3-12 (o/u) their past fifteen when priced as a pup of +200 or more and 5-13-1 (o/u) their past nineteen games overall. These are straightforward 59%, 60%, 81%, 70%, 80% and 72% respective “Under” trends. Hard to argue with those!

G.L.

***MMM***

**Homer** · 08-08-2004, 11:06 AM

Like the call MMM.

GL on all your plays today

**len caprisecca** · 08-08-2004, 11:07 AM

best of luck

**MemphisMafia** · 08-08-2004, 01:31 PM

Homer & Poboy :

Back at ya big-time and add if Im not to late a under play on the Mariners / TB game

G.L.

***MMM***

**MemphisMafia** · 08-08-2004, 06:16 PM

2-1 :

The story line reads :

PITCHING STATS
Braves
Pitcher IP PC H ER BB K
Ortiz >4.0 57 2 0 >3 >1

Diamondbacks
Pitcher IP> PC H ER BB K
Fossum 3.1 68 8 9 >2 >3
Randolph 1.1 32 3 1 0 1

<> :angryfire <>

The Braves have reverted back to thier old ways ... Beware

G.L.

***MMM***

**savage1** · 08-08-2004, 06:54 PM

I would be careful in betting an under when a piece of discarded Red Sox garbage like Fossum is pitching especially against a hot team.
Also, from my memory it seems like on Sundays many Atlanta games go over the total;as a matter of fact,I know this is true, as I have played them on several occasions for this reason(not today) and won.

**MemphisMafia** · 08-08-2004, 07:05 PM

Originally posted by savage1
I would be careful in betting an under when a piece of discarded Red Sox garbage like Fossum is pitching especially against a hot team.
Also, from my memory it seems like on Sundays many Atlanta games go over the total;as a matter of fact,I know this is true, as I have played them on several occasions for this reason(not today) and won.

Arizona will counter with Fossum today and without question he is our lone concern. His 6.00+ ERA is unsightly to say the least

Nuff Said

But : ... Ortiz @ 7/16 & Fossum @ 6/10 O/U

Took a chance :angryfire

**savage1** · 08-08-2004, 07:15 PM

Memphis-you are still the best!
ps what do you think about the Nomar trade? As you are an astute follower of baseball, I would really like to know what you think?

**MemphisMafia** · 08-08-2004, 07:41 PM

Speaking Strictly :

From the Cubs view point , it was no doubt a upgrade at SS . My concern about it is a little to late type thing , he has very little time to blend in this year and adjust to the NL game which is a different game . His asset will be the pitchers have yet to see him much and his skills at the plate should shine but also I wonder just where he should be in this batting order and Baker might want to reconsider his lineup .

Moving Alou up to third was a bad move in my opinion , even if Ramariz is a hot bat at the "moment" , I would have left Alou in the 5th spot with Nomar in 3rd and left Lee at 6th and Ramirez at 7th . My reasoning is not to leave a soft spot in the order which I think exisits from the 7th , 8th , and of course the 9th .

I really havent had much time to devote to the Cubbies this year and could kick myself for only makinf two games this season . I will give this more thought and get back to you with a more informative answer.

G.L.

***MMM***

**savage1** · 08-08-2004, 07:57 PM

Memphis, Memphis, Memphis, I meant from THE SOX POINT OF VIEW;I should have been more specific.
I thought the trade for a team trying to win a WS THIS year was awful!

**MemphisMafia** · 08-08-2004, 08:03 PM

I thought that would get your attention a bit and I didnt want to hurt you and say that I think the Red-Sox ...... threw in the towel !

**savage1** · 08-08-2004, 08:18 PM

Memphis-yup-You fooled me on that one! I should have known there was a rhyme and reason for your initial response.
I have been debating this issue amongst others on the Red Sox chatline;my general conclusion is that Theo dwells in comparison to Brian Cashman, and that Francona is a failed hack(proven when he managed with Phil. for 4 years), and should not have been hired to replace a manager with a good winning record like Grady Little.
When someone is not getting it done in one's estimation, it is sheer stupidity to hire someone with WORSE credentials than the guy you want to fire.
The great number of AL and WS pennants hanging in the rafters as opposed to the pigeons resting in the Fenway rafters speak volumes about the two organizations.
In all fairness Schilling should be blamed also for Francona's hiring, as a little birdie/pigeon told me that he had a "little" to say about the matter.

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