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Every so often new people come along at the forum and get off to a hot start. When they fade out, you often never hear of them again. Invariably they have certain characteristics in their posting habits and general demeanor that you can smell a mile away.
Tony Soprano, or rather, TonySoprano, came on board July 15, 2004 and has recorded a 17-4 record in the majors in 22 days--posting one game each day.
What drew me to research Tony's brief stint was his release on the Rangers last night. Last night I released a MILLION $$$ Play on the Tigers and had a very, very solid write up on it to back it up. I could not figure what Tony saw in the game that I missed. I'm still not sure, but he was on the right side...again.
So I decided to check up on T's record. Usually I would not waste my time with the latest come along, but Tony's quiet, lack of self-aggrandization suggests that he's not the latest flash in the pan. But before I start playing his games based on a 21-game sample, I wanna know more.
I'm not so much looking for someone who I expect to continue to hit 17 out 21 games. That's not what I'm looking for. I'm looking for a pattern that suggests that the 17-4 record is not happenstance, but rather from someone who's put in the effort. I can live with that; I can bet that.
I've reviewed virtually every one of Tony's posts and noticed some very, very interesting things--all of which suggests that Mr Soprano's work is worth the lay. Here's a few observations:
1.) After 10 games Tony was 9-1. Big deal. I can flip a coin and get that from time to time. But after 21 games he's 17-4. Now you've got my initial attention.
2.) Tony is relatively consistent in his patterns, generally posting between 9:30 and 11:30 a.m. Contrast that with so many--too many--****** come lately's whose posting habits are haphazard and borderline obnoxious after a 3-0 start.
3.) It is VERY notable to me that Tony's game of the day--posted in the morning--is nearly ALWAYS ahead of the line move. Interesting. Out of 21 games, only one game's closing line moved in a direction suggesting money coming in on the other side. One. Btw, it was the Tigers last night...so I guess I feel a little better...
Sometimes these moves are a dime or more. This suggests one of a number of things, but the most likely is that either Tony is a smart shopper or sharp player. Either one suggests an element of professionalism necessary to warrant backing a hot capper with only 21 games under the belt.
4.) There is no self-aggrandization, promotion, or exagertion on T's part. His plays are SPECIFIC: atl on the 15th; ishi over webb on the 16th; morris over any on the 20th. The record he claims is precisely accurate.
5.) Tony offers one play a day. ****** come lately's play catch up with the later games--IN ALL CAPS I might add.
6.) On the day of the trade deadline, Tony posted mid-morning as usual...but he did not post the play. He opted rather to notify the forum that he would not post the day's play until AFTER the 4:00 p.m. trade deadline. That in itself should allay any concerns you might have as to whether or not his work habits are compatible with your money.
Each of these points earn merit on their own; especially the one on the line moves. Combined, they paint a picture. But wait, there's more (sounds like a Ronco commercial.. )
7.) Three out of four of Tony's losses were by 1 single run, suggesting his team was in the game. Soprano has had one bonafide loser in 21 games when the WSOX failed to show up at KC, losing 11-0.
8.) In contrast, out of his 17 winning plays, FIFTEEN of them (whether dog or fave) would've been good against the runline. In fact, the average margin of win is +3.35 runs, and that figure is dilute by the fact that two of those wins were 1-run wins by an underdog. In addition, two of his four losses were dogs who lost by 1 run...making those two plays good against the runline as well.
9.) Tony plays an unusual number of plays involving the Cardinals (8 out of 21). This suggests one of two things:
a.) He's got a solid hold on a certain team and exploits that fact--again, the sign of a strong thinker and capper. Or, more likely...
b.) He understands the importance of finding reasons to go with GOOD teams while avoiding bad. To confirm this notion, here's a look at the teams he has backed in during his 21-game stint. Hint: You won't find Monteal, Arizona, or Kansas City on the list:
-Braves
-Dodgers
-Rangers
-Cards
-A's
-Angels (vs seattle)
-Rockies (vs d'backs)
-Giants w/schmidt
-D'rays (vs Royals)
-WSOX (vs Royals)
These 10 teams make up the 21 plays. Make that 22 plays as Tony is on the Cards again tonight for the ninth time. See a pattern? Either he's backing good teams, good pitchers, or average teams vs bad teams. In my limited wisdom, this is not the work of an amateur, and you can expect Tony's plays to continue to be a positive expectation.
10.) And the final confirmation that you can trust T's plays...he's from Jersey and has a cool handle...:O
It's obvious to me that aka Tony Soprano is well-informed: On July 18-20 the Cardinals played a 3-game road trip. Tony was on the Cards in all three games. I don't mean that St Louie was playing the D'backs. Nope. Try the Cubbies.
Now, I don't know about you, but to me that either takes guts, stupidity, or knowledge. I'm guessing the latter. By the way, he went 3-0. Good job T...
dave
Tony Soprano, or rather, TonySoprano, came on board July 15, 2004 and has recorded a 17-4 record in the majors in 22 days--posting one game each day.
What drew me to research Tony's brief stint was his release on the Rangers last night. Last night I released a MILLION $$$ Play on the Tigers and had a very, very solid write up on it to back it up. I could not figure what Tony saw in the game that I missed. I'm still not sure, but he was on the right side...again.
So I decided to check up on T's record. Usually I would not waste my time with the latest come along, but Tony's quiet, lack of self-aggrandization suggests that he's not the latest flash in the pan. But before I start playing his games based on a 21-game sample, I wanna know more.
I'm not so much looking for someone who I expect to continue to hit 17 out 21 games. That's not what I'm looking for. I'm looking for a pattern that suggests that the 17-4 record is not happenstance, but rather from someone who's put in the effort. I can live with that; I can bet that.
I've reviewed virtually every one of Tony's posts and noticed some very, very interesting things--all of which suggests that Mr Soprano's work is worth the lay. Here's a few observations:
1.) After 10 games Tony was 9-1. Big deal. I can flip a coin and get that from time to time. But after 21 games he's 17-4. Now you've got my initial attention.
2.) Tony is relatively consistent in his patterns, generally posting between 9:30 and 11:30 a.m. Contrast that with so many--too many--****** come lately's whose posting habits are haphazard and borderline obnoxious after a 3-0 start.
3.) It is VERY notable to me that Tony's game of the day--posted in the morning--is nearly ALWAYS ahead of the line move. Interesting. Out of 21 games, only one game's closing line moved in a direction suggesting money coming in on the other side. One. Btw, it was the Tigers last night...so I guess I feel a little better...
Sometimes these moves are a dime or more. This suggests one of a number of things, but the most likely is that either Tony is a smart shopper or sharp player. Either one suggests an element of professionalism necessary to warrant backing a hot capper with only 21 games under the belt.
4.) There is no self-aggrandization, promotion, or exagertion on T's part. His plays are SPECIFIC: atl on the 15th; ishi over webb on the 16th; morris over any on the 20th. The record he claims is precisely accurate.
5.) Tony offers one play a day. ****** come lately's play catch up with the later games--IN ALL CAPS I might add.
6.) On the day of the trade deadline, Tony posted mid-morning as usual...but he did not post the play. He opted rather to notify the forum that he would not post the day's play until AFTER the 4:00 p.m. trade deadline. That in itself should allay any concerns you might have as to whether or not his work habits are compatible with your money.
Each of these points earn merit on their own; especially the one on the line moves. Combined, they paint a picture. But wait, there's more (sounds like a Ronco commercial..
) 7.) Three out of four of Tony's losses were by 1 single run, suggesting his team was in the game. Soprano has had one bonafide loser in 21 games when the WSOX failed to show up at KC, losing 11-0.
8.) In contrast, out of his 17 winning plays, FIFTEEN of them (whether dog or fave) would've been good against the runline. In fact, the average margin of win is +3.35 runs, and that figure is dilute by the fact that two of those wins were 1-run wins by an underdog. In addition, two of his four losses were dogs who lost by 1 run...making those two plays good against the runline as well.
9.) Tony plays an unusual number of plays involving the Cardinals (8 out of 21). This suggests one of two things:
a.) He's got a solid hold on a certain team and exploits that fact--again, the sign of a strong thinker and capper. Or, more likely...
b.) He understands the importance of finding reasons to go with GOOD teams while avoiding bad. To confirm this notion, here's a look at the teams he has backed in during his 21-game stint. Hint: You won't find Monteal, Arizona, or Kansas City on the list:
-Braves
-Dodgers
-Rangers
-Cards
-A's
-Angels (vs seattle)
-Rockies (vs d'backs)
-Giants w/schmidt
-D'rays (vs Royals)
-WSOX (vs Royals)
These 10 teams make up the 21 plays. Make that 22 plays as Tony is on the Cards again tonight for the ninth time. See a pattern? Either he's backing good teams, good pitchers, or average teams vs bad teams. In my limited wisdom, this is not the work of an amateur, and you can expect Tony's plays to continue to be a positive expectation.
10.) And the final confirmation that you can trust T's plays...he's from Jersey and has a cool handle...:O
It's obvious to me that aka Tony Soprano is well-informed: On July 18-20 the Cardinals played a 3-game road trip. Tony was on the Cards in all three games. I don't mean that St Louie was playing the D'backs. Nope. Try the Cubbies.
Now, I don't know about you, but to me that either takes guts, stupidity, or knowledge. I'm guessing the latter. By the way, he went 3-0. Good job T...
dave
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