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With nearly 4,000 posts in the last one year and 4 months, the Wiz is one of the most prolific posters at b-chat. Taking on the monumental task of a retrospective record search is just about impossible unless you--literally--having nothing else to do.
Posting at virtually all the forums and all sports--including horses--the Wiz's comprehensive knowledge becomes apparent when weeding through it all. Obviously, I could not get to all of it. So with the Grid right around the corner, I keyed in on Football. More specifically the NFL.
I mean with other considerations at hand--you know...work, shower on Satudays, feed the kids on Wednesdays--it became painfully obvious that the NCAA task was too much with all the college games going all week long. What I was able to do was complete the NFL Season.
I have to admit that after disecting the first few weeks or so, I was already beginning to think of how I could tactfully do an expose' on one of the most prolific and well known members at b-chat. It's not that the Wiz was getting hammered early in the season, but just that the results were seemingly average--especially in contrast to the extent of adulation that the wiz receives from time to time. And rightfully so, if for nothing else his effort.
But that thinking didn't hang around for long. Before I knew it the winners started coming home. By Seaon's end the results were quite impressive. The tell-all of any handicapper is what is called the Return on Risk. As a 24-year veteran, I can tell you that all the other stuff is smoke and mirrors.
It doesn't matter if you like to play moneyline dogs, spreads, heavy faves, or whatever. What is your return on risk? That is the bottom line. My 15-1 record on my Net Program Games of -2.00> faves is a good example. There's nothing to be afraid of when you're winning. If the return is there, that's all that matters.
While only going 4-6 in the NFL Playoffs, the Wiz ended the Regular Season with a record that ought to make anyone who is serious about winning take notice. And I'm glad he did. It makes this write up easier than bringing home dark numbers about popular people. Hey check this out:
Wiz finished the 2003 NFL Regular Season with 65 Wins, 46 Losses, and a net profit of +44.65 Units. But remember what I said about the return. Heck, you give me a good negative progression and I can do the same thing with flipping a coin. But a good stock broker and a good handicapper knows that the return against the risk IS THE TELL ALL.
Generally, if you're returning 10% or more on your total risk you are world class. The best of the best will hit 12-14% over the course of time. You will not find it any higher than that in the long run. Now in Wiz's case, he came in with a 4-3 record on some moneyline plays which inflates the return. But that's okay. Inflating anything else is not okay.
For example, if I come to you with a record of 30-10, that looks pretty good right? Yeah, unless you're layiing -350 on all your plays. The return would show that. The return does not lie. Inflating the return is always GOOD.
Wiz finished the Season with a return of 15.75% on his total risk according to his units. If playing the same amount on every play, he returned a whopping 17.37% and 20.9 Net Games. Keep in mind this is over the course of a full 111 plays. Think 65-46 ain't that great? Look at the return ALWAYS.
The higher return on Net Games than Units tells me that Wiz's higher rated plays were, frankly, not hitting any higher of a win % than the lower rated plays. This turned out to be true as his 5*> plays were 9-7 during regular season--leaving the rest of his plays a healthy 56-39 record.
But hey, if you're giving me a return of over 15% no matter HOW I play it, you're doing something right. Consider that Oddz gave out over 100 NFL Plays last year. I challenge you, I challenge myself, to top that mark with that many plays.
Having said all that, here's the lowdown on the Wiz...
ALL GAMES RATED THE SAME REGULAR SEASON: 65-46/+20.9
SIDES: 34-28/+3.2
TOTALS: 27-14/+11.6
MONEYLINES: 4-3/+6.1
TOTAL RISK: 120.3
RETURN: 17.37%
*Return without moneyline plays was still 13.09%--#1 BIGGUY Free Picks 100> plays
*Absolute Net Games [minus ML] #2 @ BIGGUY Free Picks--only 0.7 Net Games behind Winner
WIZ'S UNITS REGULAR SEASON:
+44.65 UNITS
RISK: 283.5
RETURN: 15.75%
*Without ML: +36.65/+13.33% return; good for #4 Bigguy SIMULATION and #3 respectively. By the way, there were 616 entrees in last year's Simulation Contest.
The difference between the Free Picks Contest and the Simulation Contest is that you can 'rate' your games with 'units' in the Simulation where as in the Free Picks Contest you cannot.
I have compared Apples with Apples to get Wiz's comparative numbers in both Net Games and Units Won, and it all came up winners. Good Job Wiz...
dave
Posting at virtually all the forums and all sports--including horses--the Wiz's comprehensive knowledge becomes apparent when weeding through it all. Obviously, I could not get to all of it. So with the Grid right around the corner, I keyed in on Football. More specifically the NFL.
I mean with other considerations at hand--you know...work, shower on Satudays, feed the kids on Wednesdays--it became painfully obvious that the NCAA task was too much with all the college games going all week long. What I was able to do was complete the NFL Season.
I have to admit that after disecting the first few weeks or so, I was already beginning to think of how I could tactfully do an expose' on one of the most prolific and well known members at b-chat. It's not that the Wiz was getting hammered early in the season, but just that the results were seemingly average--especially in contrast to the extent of adulation that the wiz receives from time to time. And rightfully so, if for nothing else his effort.
But that thinking didn't hang around for long. Before I knew it the winners started coming home. By Seaon's end the results were quite impressive. The tell-all of any handicapper is what is called the Return on Risk. As a 24-year veteran, I can tell you that all the other stuff is smoke and mirrors.
It doesn't matter if you like to play moneyline dogs, spreads, heavy faves, or whatever. What is your return on risk? That is the bottom line. My 15-1 record on my Net Program Games of -2.00> faves is a good example. There's nothing to be afraid of when you're winning. If the return is there, that's all that matters.
While only going 4-6 in the NFL Playoffs, the Wiz ended the Regular Season with a record that ought to make anyone who is serious about winning take notice. And I'm glad he did. It makes this write up easier than bringing home dark numbers about popular people. Hey check this out:
Wiz finished the 2003 NFL Regular Season with 65 Wins, 46 Losses, and a net profit of +44.65 Units. But remember what I said about the return. Heck, you give me a good negative progression and I can do the same thing with flipping a coin. But a good stock broker and a good handicapper knows that the return against the risk IS THE TELL ALL.
Generally, if you're returning 10% or more on your total risk you are world class. The best of the best will hit 12-14% over the course of time. You will not find it any higher than that in the long run. Now in Wiz's case, he came in with a 4-3 record on some moneyline plays which inflates the return. But that's okay. Inflating anything else is not okay.
For example, if I come to you with a record of 30-10, that looks pretty good right? Yeah, unless you're layiing -350 on all your plays. The return would show that. The return does not lie. Inflating the return is always GOOD.
Wiz finished the Season with a return of 15.75% on his total risk according to his units. If playing the same amount on every play, he returned a whopping 17.37% and 20.9 Net Games. Keep in mind this is over the course of a full 111 plays. Think 65-46 ain't that great? Look at the return ALWAYS.
The higher return on Net Games than Units tells me that Wiz's higher rated plays were, frankly, not hitting any higher of a win % than the lower rated plays. This turned out to be true as his 5*> plays were 9-7 during regular season--leaving the rest of his plays a healthy 56-39 record.
But hey, if you're giving me a return of over 15% no matter HOW I play it, you're doing something right. Consider that Oddz gave out over 100 NFL Plays last year. I challenge you, I challenge myself, to top that mark with that many plays.
Having said all that, here's the lowdown on the Wiz...
ALL GAMES RATED THE SAME REGULAR SEASON: 65-46/+20.9
SIDES: 34-28/+3.2
TOTALS: 27-14/+11.6
MONEYLINES: 4-3/+6.1
TOTAL RISK: 120.3
RETURN: 17.37%
*Return without moneyline plays was still 13.09%--#1 BIGGUY Free Picks 100> plays
*Absolute Net Games [minus ML] #2 @ BIGGUY Free Picks--only 0.7 Net Games behind Winner
WIZ'S UNITS REGULAR SEASON:
+44.65 UNITS
RISK: 283.5
RETURN: 15.75%
*Without ML: +36.65/+13.33% return; good for #4 Bigguy SIMULATION and #3 respectively. By the way, there were 616 entrees in last year's Simulation Contest.
The difference between the Free Picks Contest and the Simulation Contest is that you can 'rate' your games with 'units' in the Simulation where as in the Free Picks Contest you cannot.
I have compared Apples with Apples to get Wiz's comparative numbers in both Net Games and Units Won, and it all came up winners. Good Job Wiz...
dave
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