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The handwriting was on the wall last year regarding the Panthers. I was rather surprised to see them at 100-1 back to win the Superbowl in August. By then, it was common knowledge among football enthusiasts that they had picked up Stephen Davis (over 4,000 yards rushing last 3 years with Redskins), Ricky Proehl, Kevin Dyson, and Jake Delhomme. Not to mention beefed up their offensive line.
Delhomme won a Championship overseas proving he could handle the pressure. He also looked good with the Saints. Why was the number so high at 100-1? I still don't have a clue. But I do have clues as to why they were contenders, and I picked up on those clues...
-The Panthers were 2nd in Defense (Bucs #1) in 2002. That's clue number one...and a BIG one when it comes to SB contenders.
-The Panthers were 7-9 in 2002 and finished up the season strong in the stretch. Their losses were by small margins save one or two games.
-Their Head Coach in his first year proved himself to be a no-nonsense, Parcells-type coach; benching two key players that year for off-the-field antics--one of them a pro-bowler.
-Their Special Teams in 2002 looked good.
So what were they missing? The Panthers needed just a small amount of help on offense, and in my judgement they would be a contender. Unlike the Chiefs who failed to address their defensive woes in the 2003 draft, the Panthers tackled their weakness with the afforementioned aquisitions.
Having done so, they attracted my attention. A flag went up. I was as impressed with the Panthers moves as I was un-impressed with the Chiefs moves. Only one thing remained for me before I laid down the cash @ 100-1 back, and that was Pre-Season. I give a lot of attention to it. By pre-season's end, I was convinced that the Panthers not only had all the ingredients to be a SB contender, but that they would be the team to beat in the NFC:
-Strong coaching/leadership
-Strong defense
-Solid Special Teams
-Strong Ball Control/Running Game
Notice no mention of Superstar QB. I could name a mile long list of Superstar QB's that did not make the Superbowl. In contrast, I could likewise name a long list of nobody's that QB'd a team to the Superbowl. We know that to be true.
By the time Pre-Season was over, the odds were down to 75-1 back to Win the SB, 35-1 back to Win the NFC, and 8-1 back to Win the Division. Obviously a few others were taking note of the sneaky Panthers during Pre-Season.
That was last year, but what about this year? My NFC Choice (as of now) to make the Big Dance will not be a sleeper this year. I'm picking the Green Bay Packers in the NFC. They are the team I have my Pre-Season eye on. Unless I see something in the Pre-Season significant enough to unseat my thinking on this year's version of the Packers, I will stick with them. I expect their pre-season will confirm my suspicions.
All the ingredients seem to be in place. Let me first offer a rebuttal to three probable objections to my choice of the Packers as NFC reps in the SB; those objections namely would be the Eagles, Farve, and 4th and 26.
Firstly, right now there are some who are expecting Brett Farve to begin his downward career spiral. I do not belive that. If anything, I suspect he is in for an all-time best. His 41-7 thrashing of the Raiders on Monday Night and one day after the death of his father says it all. I believe that game was reactionary and representative of what you can expect this SEASON to be for him and his Packers. I believe he will respond this SEASON the way he responded in that GAME.
Two, some are speculating that the blown 4th down and 26 conversion on the part of the Packers defense (which kept them from going to the NFC Championship Game) will somehow have a hangover effect. Hogwash. The Packers D is in tact. They improved dramatically the latter half of the Season, allowing only one 100-yard rushing game and only one 300-yard game in route to a 7-1 finish in the final 8 games. Remember what I said about strong finishes the prior year! It is often an indicator of things to come!
And three, the Eagles. Many are saying that no one will be able to stop the Eagles this year. Wow. T.O. must be really magical. The idea that somehow T.O. is the solution to a team that has been in-tact, gelled, and made 3 straight NFC Championship appearances is, to me, rather arrogant. You heard it here first: The Eagles will not even win their division, much less make it to the NFC Game again.
Andy Reid has done a remarkable job and remains one of the league's better coaches, but they have run out of excuses for not making the big one; and the Kearse/Owen combo is not the answer in my opinion. Cowboys win the East, and the Packers will be the team to beat in the NFC.
Having addressed those objections, let me offer a couple other notes...
I've already mentioned the rise of the Packer D. In addtion to that, for the first time in the Brett Farve era, the Packers had more running plays than passing plays. That is a move in the right direction for a SB run.
Not only did the Packers finish up strong last year, but note that they had the smallest margin in their losses of anyone in the League. They also had the largest margin in their wins of any team in the league. They were #1 in the Red Zone on Offense, and, you guessed it, Number One in the Red Zone on Defense.
Perk up non-believers. The Pack is back. They fell one play short of the NFC Championship Game last year. This year they have a revived defense, a hungry Farve with a new sense of urgency looking for 1 more SB, a running game, young receivers, and the right opening day game to get their head straight right off the bat:
PACKERS @ PANTHERS on Monday Night Football
Care to guess who I'll be on?
Speaking of the Packers, the NFC North has but one serious contender this year other than the Packers, and that would be the Vikings. Having said that, wouldn't it be interesting if the Bears snuck up on everyone. Despite improving from 4 wins in '02 to 7 wins last year, Jauron is gone. His replacement Lovie Smith is a strong defensive coordinator from the St Louis Rams.
Smith opted to use 4 of his first 5 draft picks on the defensive side of the ball. If he's wise enough to commit to a running game, their current strength, the Bears could land a .500 year or better. Or not. They're in a tough division that's getting even tougher with the Lions looking to improve this year as well.
As enthusiastic as the Bears might be, they could easily start out 0-2 on the season and in the division. That could put an early damper on things. Week Two has them pitted at Green Bay, a team Lovie is determined to beat. If the Bears focus to hard on that Week Two match up and overlook their opener against the hapless Lions, Mariucci could quietly sneak in and out with a win at Chicago as he is eager to snap their road losing streak to start the season out right for the improving Lions. In that scenario the Bears could find themselves shell-shocked right of the bat while attempting to bounce back at Green Bay.
I'm searching for potential Superbowl Prospects, Conference Champs, and Division Champs. The bottom line for the Bears is that they do not appear to fit in to any of those categories this year. Ditto for the Lions...
If you haven't read Barry Sanders book, check it out. He details, finally, why he retired. He makes a compelling case for a Lion's organization that is not serious about winning Championships but rather making money. That really rang true for me being as I live only 1 hour from New Orleans--a team with a history of buying low, training players, and selling high. I really like Steve Mariucci as a person and coach, but the feeling here is that if he could not take the San Francisco 49ers to the bowl, I doubt it will happen in Detroit.
Which leaves us with the Vikings. Talk about underachieving. I was really high on the Vikes last year and on Mike Tice. I correctly predicted a career year for Randy Moss due to his off-season improvements in work ethic and attitude. While the Vikings seem the more obvious choice than the Packers to win the NFC North and possibly the NFC Title, I have a problem with a team/coach/ system/whatever that starts out 6-0 and misses the playoffs for no apparent reason. It's not like they amassed a multitude of injuries to key players.
Secondly, when it came down to the nitty gritty in the final game of the season, on the final drive, and the final play, they failed. They gave up a TD to the worst team in the League. They lost. That's all I have to see to evaluate where they are. I expect more of the same this year: Underachievers falling short. This may seem like crazy reasoning, but consider last year's Eagles...
Again they were perennial faves to win the NFC, and I maintained strongly that if they could not get it done in 2002 with home field throughout the playoffs, what would be different in 2003? Amazingly, they are favored once again this year. And once again they will not get it done; but that's another subject.
The point is that sometimes you can eliminate non-contenders even if they appear to be contenders; and you can do that based on the crazy type reasoning I am using. With that in mind, again, the Vikings are not on my contenders list. What happened last year? What happened? They lost to the worst team in the league when in the most important game of their season. Period.
In setting out to pick SB contenders, eliminating the NON-contenders first makes the search easier. So here' what I have so far in my search for the NFC's Superbowl representative:
NON-CONTENDERS:
Lions...for what I hope are obvious reasons.
Bears...ditto.
Vikings...something wrong in the camp; no excuses, they did not get it done when it counted.
CONTENDERS:
Packers...QB, run game, improving D, legacy, confidence, etc.
As you can see, weeding out the non-contenders will quickly narrow down the list of possibilities, and you'll be left with some nice futures plays. Of course, these are just preliminary choices and will be subject to the scrutiny of Pre-Season. Then I will make FINAL CALLS and send them out in my Annual NFL Preview.
I expect the AFC will be much harder, and I mean MUCH harder, to disect. I only see a handful of teams in the NFC that I will put on my contenders list; but in the AFC their is an entire slew of them. Weeding them out will be fun. Pre-Season will be the tale of the tape.
NFC EAST:
In a division full of hall of fame coaches you can expect some competitive divisional rivalries. This could be the new black and blue division of the NFL. In picking a division winner, I'll look first to disount the team or teams that I do not expect to win it. Secondly, I'll look to defense first to pick my choice in the NFC.
The most glaring standout to me as far as who will NOT win this division is the New York Giants. Their defense is in shambles. While I expect they will be improved on the defensive side of the ball, and while the addition of Warner and Coughlin are attractive, I do not think this will be enough in their first year.
Perhaps in another division the aforementioned additions might effect a one-eighty in standings for the Gints, but not against the likes of Bill Parcells and his Dallas "D", Andy Reid and his SB Favored Eagles, or Joe Gibbs and his revamped and revised Redskins complete with the addition of Clinton Portis and Mark Breunel and what I expect to be a top five defense. Bottom line is someone has to finish in the cellar, and I believe it will be the Giants even if they manage 7 wins.
As this year's SB favorites, the Eagles are obviously the favorite to win the NFC East. While I do not doubt their potential, I question how this team will respond to having lost, again, in the NFC Championship Game. That makes three straight and two straight in their back yard. Something just isn't right. They have no excuses. Prior to last year's game, it was generally understood that this was the year; that this team may not ever play again in it's [then] current form. Somehow they lost again.
The high-profile additions of key impact players like Jevon Kearse and Terrel Owens may make a difference, but I wonder if the difference they make in talent will be off-set by the interuption in continuity. To me, the Eagles had gelled over the years. They were about as good as they could be, and I'm not sure the addition of slightly better talent in a couple of positions will be of any benefit--atleast not until Philly does some soul searching and purges themselves of that nagging problem: why can't we win the NFC Title?
Whatever the reason for their failing again when it counts the most, I don't know what the answer is; but I am convince what the answer is NOT. The answer is NOT that they have failed because they were lacking Terrel Owens and Jevon Kearse.
Andy Reid and his Eagles have now had double-digit ATS Winning Seasons for three straight years--a rare feat indeed and a testimony to Reid's ability to keep his team executing and keep them focussed through adversity. However, that should be a warning sign for potential Eagle backers. As though they will not already be overrated enough, add to that the additions of Kearse and Owens and you might find them to be laying a few too many points more often than not.
I would be very careful of the Eagles--for or against--early in the Season. This is a potential pivotal season for them. A collapse would not surprise me in the least. But in light of Reid's genious, neither would another Superbowl Run. With the rise of talent in the NFC East, the 3rd NFC Title Game loss in a row, and 3 straight double-digit ATS winning years, I am more inclined to expect a letdown from the Eagles this year. I do not expect them to be in this year's NFC title game. Going further, I do not expect them to win their division.
Which leaves us with two possible teams to win the NFC East: The Redskins and Cowboys. While I expect the Redskins to be VASTLY improved--indeed they are building quite an impressive thing there in DC, I'm going to give the nod to the Dallas Cowboys as the NFC East Champs.
The Redskins should be a very real threat in 2005 or 2006 (yes, that soon), and they could very easily compete with the Eagles for second place this year. Am I saying that the Eagles could finish third in the division? Yes. That would not surprise me at all. I expect the Redskins to battle them for second.
This leaves the Cowboys. A top-five defense last year, the more remarkable thing was that they were not that bad on offense considering that no one expected them to be as effective and they were with the young QB's. Dallas has the coach and the defense to win the division. With the additions of Testeverde and Keyshawn--two players who excelled under Parcells with the Jets, they now have the extra little help they needed on offense. The one thing that is in the air is the running game. If the Cowboy's offensive line can play up to snuff, and if Parcells appoint a back and commit to him, a four-yard per carry average is probable and will be enough to make a SB run. If not, the pressure will be on Vinny; something good enough for the NFC East but not good enough for a SB run.
I'm a Parcels believer. He took the same basic team that won 5 games for three straight seasons and turned them into a playoff team that outgained 13 of 16 of their regular season opponents. In the Net Yardage category, they were favored in every single game last year--the only team in the league that can say that. While my final analysis is pending Pre-Season, at this point I like the Cowboys to make a run for the SB this year.
Here's what I like so far regarding NFL Futures (7-0 last year):
RAVENS OVER 9.0 -160 (wins division going away)
BENGALS UNDER 8.0 -175 (where's dillon; put kitna in)
COWBOYS OVER 9.0 +100 (defense + vinny + keyshawn + parcells)
BRONCOS OVER 9.0 +100 (sleeper team; makes sb run)
PACKERS OVER 9.0 -130 (my choice for nfc sb rep; defense vastly improved)
JETS OVER 9.0 +150 (chad healthy; should get off to fast start)
SEATTLE OVER 9.0 -105 (wins division)
Stay tuned, or check out the promotional forum for more...
dave
Delhomme won a Championship overseas proving he could handle the pressure. He also looked good with the Saints. Why was the number so high at 100-1? I still don't have a clue. But I do have clues as to why they were contenders, and I picked up on those clues...
-The Panthers were 2nd in Defense (Bucs #1) in 2002. That's clue number one...and a BIG one when it comes to SB contenders.
-The Panthers were 7-9 in 2002 and finished up the season strong in the stretch. Their losses were by small margins save one or two games.
-Their Head Coach in his first year proved himself to be a no-nonsense, Parcells-type coach; benching two key players that year for off-the-field antics--one of them a pro-bowler.
-Their Special Teams in 2002 looked good.
So what were they missing? The Panthers needed just a small amount of help on offense, and in my judgement they would be a contender. Unlike the Chiefs who failed to address their defensive woes in the 2003 draft, the Panthers tackled their weakness with the afforementioned aquisitions.
Having done so, they attracted my attention. A flag went up. I was as impressed with the Panthers moves as I was un-impressed with the Chiefs moves. Only one thing remained for me before I laid down the cash @ 100-1 back, and that was Pre-Season. I give a lot of attention to it. By pre-season's end, I was convinced that the Panthers not only had all the ingredients to be a SB contender, but that they would be the team to beat in the NFC:
-Strong coaching/leadership
-Strong defense
-Solid Special Teams
-Strong Ball Control/Running Game
Notice no mention of Superstar QB. I could name a mile long list of Superstar QB's that did not make the Superbowl. In contrast, I could likewise name a long list of nobody's that QB'd a team to the Superbowl. We know that to be true.
By the time Pre-Season was over, the odds were down to 75-1 back to Win the SB, 35-1 back to Win the NFC, and 8-1 back to Win the Division. Obviously a few others were taking note of the sneaky Panthers during Pre-Season.
That was last year, but what about this year? My NFC Choice (as of now) to make the Big Dance will not be a sleeper this year. I'm picking the Green Bay Packers in the NFC. They are the team I have my Pre-Season eye on. Unless I see something in the Pre-Season significant enough to unseat my thinking on this year's version of the Packers, I will stick with them. I expect their pre-season will confirm my suspicions.
All the ingredients seem to be in place. Let me first offer a rebuttal to three probable objections to my choice of the Packers as NFC reps in the SB; those objections namely would be the Eagles, Farve, and 4th and 26.
Firstly, right now there are some who are expecting Brett Farve to begin his downward career spiral. I do not belive that. If anything, I suspect he is in for an all-time best. His 41-7 thrashing of the Raiders on Monday Night and one day after the death of his father says it all. I believe that game was reactionary and representative of what you can expect this SEASON to be for him and his Packers. I believe he will respond this SEASON the way he responded in that GAME.
Two, some are speculating that the blown 4th down and 26 conversion on the part of the Packers defense (which kept them from going to the NFC Championship Game) will somehow have a hangover effect. Hogwash. The Packers D is in tact. They improved dramatically the latter half of the Season, allowing only one 100-yard rushing game and only one 300-yard game in route to a 7-1 finish in the final 8 games. Remember what I said about strong finishes the prior year! It is often an indicator of things to come!
And three, the Eagles. Many are saying that no one will be able to stop the Eagles this year. Wow. T.O. must be really magical. The idea that somehow T.O. is the solution to a team that has been in-tact, gelled, and made 3 straight NFC Championship appearances is, to me, rather arrogant. You heard it here first: The Eagles will not even win their division, much less make it to the NFC Game again.
Andy Reid has done a remarkable job and remains one of the league's better coaches, but they have run out of excuses for not making the big one; and the Kearse/Owen combo is not the answer in my opinion. Cowboys win the East, and the Packers will be the team to beat in the NFC.
Having addressed those objections, let me offer a couple other notes...
I've already mentioned the rise of the Packer D. In addtion to that, for the first time in the Brett Farve era, the Packers had more running plays than passing plays. That is a move in the right direction for a SB run.
Not only did the Packers finish up strong last year, but note that they had the smallest margin in their losses of anyone in the League. They also had the largest margin in their wins of any team in the league. They were #1 in the Red Zone on Offense, and, you guessed it, Number One in the Red Zone on Defense.
Perk up non-believers. The Pack is back. They fell one play short of the NFC Championship Game last year. This year they have a revived defense, a hungry Farve with a new sense of urgency looking for 1 more SB, a running game, young receivers, and the right opening day game to get their head straight right off the bat:
PACKERS @ PANTHERS on Monday Night Football
Care to guess who I'll be on?
Speaking of the Packers, the NFC North has but one serious contender this year other than the Packers, and that would be the Vikings. Having said that, wouldn't it be interesting if the Bears snuck up on everyone. Despite improving from 4 wins in '02 to 7 wins last year, Jauron is gone. His replacement Lovie Smith is a strong defensive coordinator from the St Louis Rams.
Smith opted to use 4 of his first 5 draft picks on the defensive side of the ball. If he's wise enough to commit to a running game, their current strength, the Bears could land a .500 year or better. Or not. They're in a tough division that's getting even tougher with the Lions looking to improve this year as well.
As enthusiastic as the Bears might be, they could easily start out 0-2 on the season and in the division. That could put an early damper on things. Week Two has them pitted at Green Bay, a team Lovie is determined to beat. If the Bears focus to hard on that Week Two match up and overlook their opener against the hapless Lions, Mariucci could quietly sneak in and out with a win at Chicago as he is eager to snap their road losing streak to start the season out right for the improving Lions. In that scenario the Bears could find themselves shell-shocked right of the bat while attempting to bounce back at Green Bay.
I'm searching for potential Superbowl Prospects, Conference Champs, and Division Champs. The bottom line for the Bears is that they do not appear to fit in to any of those categories this year. Ditto for the Lions...
If you haven't read Barry Sanders book, check it out. He details, finally, why he retired. He makes a compelling case for a Lion's organization that is not serious about winning Championships but rather making money. That really rang true for me being as I live only 1 hour from New Orleans--a team with a history of buying low, training players, and selling high. I really like Steve Mariucci as a person and coach, but the feeling here is that if he could not take the San Francisco 49ers to the bowl, I doubt it will happen in Detroit.
Which leaves us with the Vikings. Talk about underachieving. I was really high on the Vikes last year and on Mike Tice. I correctly predicted a career year for Randy Moss due to his off-season improvements in work ethic and attitude. While the Vikings seem the more obvious choice than the Packers to win the NFC North and possibly the NFC Title, I have a problem with a team/coach/ system/whatever that starts out 6-0 and misses the playoffs for no apparent reason. It's not like they amassed a multitude of injuries to key players.
Secondly, when it came down to the nitty gritty in the final game of the season, on the final drive, and the final play, they failed. They gave up a TD to the worst team in the League. They lost. That's all I have to see to evaluate where they are. I expect more of the same this year: Underachievers falling short. This may seem like crazy reasoning, but consider last year's Eagles...
Again they were perennial faves to win the NFC, and I maintained strongly that if they could not get it done in 2002 with home field throughout the playoffs, what would be different in 2003? Amazingly, they are favored once again this year. And once again they will not get it done; but that's another subject.
The point is that sometimes you can eliminate non-contenders even if they appear to be contenders; and you can do that based on the crazy type reasoning I am using. With that in mind, again, the Vikings are not on my contenders list. What happened last year? What happened? They lost to the worst team in the league when in the most important game of their season. Period.
In setting out to pick SB contenders, eliminating the NON-contenders first makes the search easier. So here' what I have so far in my search for the NFC's Superbowl representative:
NON-CONTENDERS:
Lions...for what I hope are obvious reasons.
Bears...ditto.
Vikings...something wrong in the camp; no excuses, they did not get it done when it counted.
CONTENDERS:
Packers...QB, run game, improving D, legacy, confidence, etc.
As you can see, weeding out the non-contenders will quickly narrow down the list of possibilities, and you'll be left with some nice futures plays. Of course, these are just preliminary choices and will be subject to the scrutiny of Pre-Season. Then I will make FINAL CALLS and send them out in my Annual NFL Preview.
I expect the AFC will be much harder, and I mean MUCH harder, to disect. I only see a handful of teams in the NFC that I will put on my contenders list; but in the AFC their is an entire slew of them. Weeding them out will be fun. Pre-Season will be the tale of the tape.
NFC EAST:
In a division full of hall of fame coaches you can expect some competitive divisional rivalries. This could be the new black and blue division of the NFL. In picking a division winner, I'll look first to disount the team or teams that I do not expect to win it. Secondly, I'll look to defense first to pick my choice in the NFC.
The most glaring standout to me as far as who will NOT win this division is the New York Giants. Their defense is in shambles. While I expect they will be improved on the defensive side of the ball, and while the addition of Warner and Coughlin are attractive, I do not think this will be enough in their first year.
Perhaps in another division the aforementioned additions might effect a one-eighty in standings for the Gints, but not against the likes of Bill Parcells and his Dallas "D", Andy Reid and his SB Favored Eagles, or Joe Gibbs and his revamped and revised Redskins complete with the addition of Clinton Portis and Mark Breunel and what I expect to be a top five defense. Bottom line is someone has to finish in the cellar, and I believe it will be the Giants even if they manage 7 wins.
As this year's SB favorites, the Eagles are obviously the favorite to win the NFC East. While I do not doubt their potential, I question how this team will respond to having lost, again, in the NFC Championship Game. That makes three straight and two straight in their back yard. Something just isn't right. They have no excuses. Prior to last year's game, it was generally understood that this was the year; that this team may not ever play again in it's [then] current form. Somehow they lost again.
The high-profile additions of key impact players like Jevon Kearse and Terrel Owens may make a difference, but I wonder if the difference they make in talent will be off-set by the interuption in continuity. To me, the Eagles had gelled over the years. They were about as good as they could be, and I'm not sure the addition of slightly better talent in a couple of positions will be of any benefit--atleast not until Philly does some soul searching and purges themselves of that nagging problem: why can't we win the NFC Title?
Whatever the reason for their failing again when it counts the most, I don't know what the answer is; but I am convince what the answer is NOT. The answer is NOT that they have failed because they were lacking Terrel Owens and Jevon Kearse.
Andy Reid and his Eagles have now had double-digit ATS Winning Seasons for three straight years--a rare feat indeed and a testimony to Reid's ability to keep his team executing and keep them focussed through adversity. However, that should be a warning sign for potential Eagle backers. As though they will not already be overrated enough, add to that the additions of Kearse and Owens and you might find them to be laying a few too many points more often than not.
I would be very careful of the Eagles--for or against--early in the Season. This is a potential pivotal season for them. A collapse would not surprise me in the least. But in light of Reid's genious, neither would another Superbowl Run. With the rise of talent in the NFC East, the 3rd NFC Title Game loss in a row, and 3 straight double-digit ATS winning years, I am more inclined to expect a letdown from the Eagles this year. I do not expect them to be in this year's NFC title game. Going further, I do not expect them to win their division.
Which leaves us with two possible teams to win the NFC East: The Redskins and Cowboys. While I expect the Redskins to be VASTLY improved--indeed they are building quite an impressive thing there in DC, I'm going to give the nod to the Dallas Cowboys as the NFC East Champs.
The Redskins should be a very real threat in 2005 or 2006 (yes, that soon), and they could very easily compete with the Eagles for second place this year. Am I saying that the Eagles could finish third in the division? Yes. That would not surprise me at all. I expect the Redskins to battle them for second.
This leaves the Cowboys. A top-five defense last year, the more remarkable thing was that they were not that bad on offense considering that no one expected them to be as effective and they were with the young QB's. Dallas has the coach and the defense to win the division. With the additions of Testeverde and Keyshawn--two players who excelled under Parcells with the Jets, they now have the extra little help they needed on offense. The one thing that is in the air is the running game. If the Cowboy's offensive line can play up to snuff, and if Parcells appoint a back and commit to him, a four-yard per carry average is probable and will be enough to make a SB run. If not, the pressure will be on Vinny; something good enough for the NFC East but not good enough for a SB run.
I'm a Parcels believer. He took the same basic team that won 5 games for three straight seasons and turned them into a playoff team that outgained 13 of 16 of their regular season opponents. In the Net Yardage category, they were favored in every single game last year--the only team in the league that can say that. While my final analysis is pending Pre-Season, at this point I like the Cowboys to make a run for the SB this year.
Here's what I like so far regarding NFL Futures (7-0 last year):
RAVENS OVER 9.0 -160 (wins division going away)
BENGALS UNDER 8.0 -175 (where's dillon; put kitna in)
COWBOYS OVER 9.0 +100 (defense + vinny + keyshawn + parcells)
BRONCOS OVER 9.0 +100 (sleeper team; makes sb run)
PACKERS OVER 9.0 -130 (my choice for nfc sb rep; defense vastly improved)
JETS OVER 9.0 +150 (chad healthy; should get off to fast start)
SEATTLE OVER 9.0 -105 (wins division)
Stay tuned, or check out the promotional forum for more...
dave
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