MLB Totals

[frankb03]

71-52

A losing 1-2 night. I'm looking to bounce back.

Unders
Houston/Arizona 9
Oakland/Seattle 9
Florida/Philadelphia 9
Pittsburgh/Atlanta 8.5

GL!

[Homer]

Lets get them today Buddy

[MemphisMafia]

frankb :

In continuance of yesterdays totals discussion I also must say that as you noted the over 10`s have taken a big up-swing lately. I also cant argue with the middle of the week being good under days either (Wed. & Thus.) . I have to add that in addition to my views that the buying of the halfs has figured strongly in my plays over time , both @ 8.5 + 9.5 . Albeit I never play them everyday but if I did I can safely say that they either save me a bet by push or at least win me one almost everytime I apply them.

The past month is a very small sample over time , but its a decent indicator as to the times this does happen which is almost daily . Looking at it from a over point of view this is the past 30 days (All-Star break gave down time) :

7/21 - SD/SF = P
7/20 - Minn/Det = P
7/19 - Mont/Pitt = P
7/18 - Milw/Cubs = P + WSox/Oak =P + Bos/Angels = P / Won on Balt/TB + SD/Astros
7/17 - Mont/Atl = P
7/16 - Fla/Pit = P
7/15 - Mont/Atl = P + Bost/Angels = P + / Won on Balt/TB

All_Star Break

7/11 - Mets/FlA = P
7/10 - No P / Won on KC/Balt + Colo/SD
7/9 - TB/NYY = P + Oak/Clev = P
7/8 - Tex/Clev = P
7/7 No P or Win (rarely does this happen )
7/6 - No P / Won Det/NYY
7/5 - TB/Balt = P / Won on KC/Minn
7/4 - Seatt/St L = P + TB/Fla = P
7/4 - Milw/Pitt = P / Won on Miin/Ari
7/3 - Seatt/St L = P
7/2 - No P / Bost/Atl = Won
7/1 - No P / Bost/NYY = Won
6/30 - Mont/Phil = P + SF/LA = P
6/29 -
6/28 - No Anything These Days ( Extremely Strange )
6/27-
6/26 - Milw/Minn = P / Cubs/ WSox = Won
6/25 - No P / Milw/Minn = Won
6/24 - No P / Cinn/Mets = Won
6/23 - Oak/Angels = P / Det?KC = Won
6/22 - Atl/Fla = P + Colo/Milw = P + KC/Det = P / Cubs/St L = Won

As you can see they easily avg at least one a day , but as we discussed its up to us to find that nugget and it all falls back to probabilities added with the law of avgs .

Hoping if you can to give a look see on those day-night games as I have often wondered about them , going out on a limb from past experiences betting wise I would have to say the overs are more dominate ?

Anyways , thanks for all you do and G.L. on your peeps of the action today

***MMM***

[mikeloblob]

Good luck Frank and thanks again for the plays.
Just want to let eveyone know that at linesmaker.com. They have the following special:

"If you get slaughtered. We'll show mercy!
We are all familiar with the mercy rule. When one team is badly beating the other, the game is called as a show of 'mercy' to the losers. Well, we are bringing the Mercy Rule to MLB! When any team is beat by 10 or more runs, we will refund all under bets! So when your under bet goes bad, start cheering for runs because the mercy rule is always in play. "

So even I lost the 2 under plays last night for White Sox- Cleveland (14-0) and TampaBay- Minnesota (2-12) . They refunded my wager back to my account.

Good Luck everyone.

[frankb03]

League and Divisional games

MMM, I thought my data had day/nite info. Unfortunately, it doesn't. I will incorporate into my data time permitting. It's something I've often wondered about.

I wasn't surprised that NL games go Under more than AL games. That's something I've suspected. I've often believed my total selections do much better in the NL.

Much to my surprise divisional play has more games going 'Over' the total than non-divisional games the past 3 years. I would have thought divisional games are tighter low scoring affairs.


MLB Overall
Divisional:
1566/1616 ... 49.2%

Non-Divisional:
1461/1557 ... 48.4

AL
Overall:
1435/1483 ... 49.2

Divisional:
707/714 ... 49.8%

Non-Divisional:
728/769 ... 48.6


NL
Overall:
1592/1690 ... 48.5

Divisional:
859/902 ... 48.8%

Non-Divisional:
733/788 ... 48.2


Inter-League
343/376 ... 47.7

[frankb03]

Pushes

MMM

When the OU total is set at 9 the game pushes an amazing 10.8% of the time. The OU of 9 has pushed 188 games the past 3 season. No other total comes close. The closest being OU 8 with 61 pushes.

Buying down or up to OU 9 once again might be a wise investment for totals players. The other totals probably don't make sense buying the 1/2 run.