MLB Totals

[frankb03]

70-50

Yesterday started with a bang. Winning both early games. Only to see both evening games go way over the total.

Todays Unders:
Detroit/KC 9.5
Cleveland/Chisox 9
TB/Minny 9

GL to All!!

[CoverBoy]

Best of Luck Frankie Totals

A model of consistency .... great work !

[Homer]

Lets get them today frank.

Thanks for the plays

[ez winners]

Best of luck Frank!!

[MemphisMafia]

frankb :

My outlooks yesterday had the unders prevailing and they did (but just slightly) , and I believe that if past seasons are any indicator as to the books way of thinking , we will see more of them soon.

The game has changed so much in the past few years with the way they protect thier staffs and pull many of them way to early in my opinion ( except for that killer in S.F. ) and it really gives the #`s edge to the overs anymore with these so called bull-pens . They do adjust , no doubt but its still a favor towards the overs no matter what they are doing .

Take a look at past years (say starting 5 ago) and look at the rising of them every year , at this rate I might live to see them at a 10 to 11 avg across the board , when 5 years ago the norm was about 7.5 to 8.5 . I admire your spunk hanging in there with the unders only but I clearly cannot go that route with the state of the game today . Even the umpires avgs on them has risen lately to go along with the way the games played now days .

To excell at totals takes a fine mathematical mind , coupled with a good understanding of the probables (length of starts , mids powers , closing abilities , and intangibles like who hits righties strong " Hafner " and days vs. nights such) and it goes way past just picking a side and is very challenging indeed .

G.L. in All You Do !

***MMM***

[frankb03]

MMM, with all due respect I have to disagree with you that the edge is with the 'Over' players.

Yesterday I spent a good amount of time analyzing totals from the last 2 years (2002 and 2003 season). I came up with a few interesting 'angles'. So far this season these trends are holding true.

First, 73% of the games have the total set at 8, 8 1/2, 9 or 9 1/2. There's a huge descrepancy between playing games with the OU at 8 or 9 versus 8 1/2 or 9 1/2. Playing every game set at 8 or 9 the past two seasons would have yielded a profit. Both go under in excess of 54% of the games. Conversely, playing games at 8 1/2 or 9 1/2 are huge losers. Both go under approx. 48% of the games.

Buying the 1/2 run from 8 1/2 to 9 the player would have pushed over 100 games that would have been loses at 8 1/2 the past two season. Something to consider.

Buying the 1/2 run from 9 1/2 to 10 saved the bettor from 45 would be loses. IMO not worth the investment.

Second, after the All-star break the 'Under' creeps up slightly. In all games the past two season the 'Under' cashes the ticket slightly more than 51%. That number increases to almost 52% post all-star break.

Most players in all sports prefers playing the 'Over'. However, I can't overlook the 1.2% 'edge' Vegas gives the 'Under' players. It brings me 1/2 way to the 52.4% break-even point.

Some 'Under' loses are hard to swallow when a reliever comes in the 8th or 9th only to give up a few meaningless run. The 'Under' players have to accept those things will happen. Albeit, it can be frustrating. But is it any less frustrating than an 'Over' player watching futility at the plate? Probably not!

[Homer]

Frank

I will say this. I was always a OVER player until you turned me onto this system.

I really like the Fact of playing the Unders now. Reason being they normally never get slammed in any given day.

Also, its nice to have a win on your side until the Total goes OVER the number. Playing the over your losing until you get to that magic number. Maybe a stupid feeling but I like the feeling of WINNING a bet at the beginning of the game until the number is broken. :D

GL tonight and like I have said before thanks for the plays Frank. I have been following them sense close to the beginning.

[frankb03]

Re: Frank

Originally posted by Homer
I really like the Fact of playing the Unders now. Reason being they normally never get slammed in any given day.

I agree. I've only had one day where I got slammed (2-5).

[MemphisMafia]

Respect noted my friend :

but not needed when it comes to different views on these things .

Quote :


Buying the 1/2 run from 8 1/2 to 9 the player would have pushed over 100 games that would have been loses at 8 1/2 the past two season. Something to consider.

Unquote :

I have been a advocate of this move for many years now and anyone who argues it , is just not looking at the facts .

Quote :

Second, after the All-star break the 'Under' creeps up slightly. In all games the past two season the 'Under' cashes the ticket slightly more than 51%. That number increases to almost 52% post all-star break.

Unquote :

As posted :

My outlooks yesterday had the unders prevailing and they did (but just slightly) , and I believe that if past seasons are any indicator as to the books way of thinking , we will see more of them soon.

We seem to agree there , and homework wins once again .

But it seems your views hang on buying the half from a under stand-point and I look at it from the over view-point and it works equally well from both points of view (when its needed) . And at present moment the overs stand a bit ahead of the unders in all games played (with no buying @ all ) , and if memory serves me well its been that way for some time (henceforth the rising total thru the years , with the books trying to balance out) . They wouldnt push it up if it was not needed to keep them ahead of us all .

But we definetly agree on the unders being ever so slightly up post-all-star and while we are at it here ?

Have you ever done a day/nite Break-down ?

Or day of the week Break-down ?

They yield a slightly different set of numbers altogether , but all of this hinges on many things as I stated earlier (probables) because they are my leading indicator when choosing a total in baseball . And I have to say either way you go that it has to be a educated and well thought out look at what each game presents with everything from the umps to the weather to management to veal-pens , and dozens of other factors that " probably " will come into play more often than not (the ole 50/50 factor).

Anyways it was nice to disagree once again , and I will abide by my overs as I have done for many years . And it really comes down to knowing when to holdem and when to foldem with a pinch of prayer added for good measure

And as stated , I love the challenge this game offers !


Been Nice ..... Once Again !

***MMM***

Added %`s :

Last 30 days / O=49.58% | U=50.42%
Last 60 days / O=48.29% | U=51.71%
Last 90 days / O=48.33% | U= 51.67%
Last 120 days / O=49.09% | U=50.91%

As you can see that before the all-star-break the Overs (without any buying) where making a very significant comeback this season (at the all-time high )

[frankb03]

MMM

You have raised some valid points.

I will do some analysis on:

1. buying the 1/2 run on the 'Over' side.
2. Day/Nite Totals
3. Day of week Totals.

Upon my completion I will post my findings.

On another note with the total set at 10
2001 ... 55.0%
2002 ... 58.3%
2003 ... 50.3%
2004 ... 48.0%

As we can see with the total set at 10 the 'Under' has cooled drastically the past two years. I haven't seen the same trends with other totals.

[fats12]

Frank,

I love your system and in baseball it is a great way to make $...One thing to also look at, lefty v. lefty at each line, under 7 and the winning percent and over 11 and the winning percent. Also during the regular season under 6.5 is a great investment. Good luck and I wish you well, capping baseball is a tough prop, and you have found a great angle.....Thnks!!!

Fatman

[frankb03]

Over Players

For the Over players buying down 1/2 run the past 3 seasons:

OU 10 1/2
159/163 ... 49.4%

Buying 10 1/2 down to 10
159/140 ... 53.2%

It costs about 25 cents to buy 1/2 runs. 140 loses cost $3500 (140*25) of additional moneys lost. The bettor saved 23 (163-140) loses buying the 1/2 run or $2530 (-110). It's not a wise investment to buy the 1/2 on 10 1/2

OU 9 1/2
615/632 ... 49.3%

Buying 9 1/2 down to 9
615/516 ... 54.4%

Buying the 1/2 run from 9 1/2 is a slight loser. Approx a $140 lossing additional investment. I wouldn't invest.


OU 8 1/2
746/684 ... 52.2%

Buying 8 1/2 down to 8
746/596 ... 55.6%

Buying down to 8 from 8 1/2 is a very POOR investment. It cost $14900 to buy 1/2 run on 596 games. The 88 pushes saved $9680 in loses. Overall the player lost over $5000. Too many games to invest the additional money at 8 1/2.

I don't believe in buying 1/2 runs off full lines (8, 9, 10, 11 etc). I'm satisfied with the PUSH.

[frankb03]

fats12

Originally posted by fats12
Frank,

I love your system and in baseball it is a great way to make $...One thing to also look at, lefty v. lefty at each line, under 7 and the winning percent and over 11 and the winning percent. Also during the regular season under 6.5 is a great investment. Good luck and I wish you well, capping baseball is a tough prop, and you have found a great angle.....Thnks!!!

Fatman

Thanks!

I play 2 systems involving Lefty/Lefty matchups.

I'll report on the breakdown by total as soon as I get a chance.

[frankb03]

Totals by Day of Week


Sun ... 564/557 ... 50.3%

Mon ... 280/282 ... 49.8

Tue ... 520/526 ... 46.7

Wed ... 507/562 ... 47.4

Thu ... 424/484 ... 46.7

Fri ... 540/561 ... 49.0

Sat ... 535/577 ... 48.1


The records above only include the 2001-2003 season. They do not include the 2004 season.

[fats12]

Great work Frank, and thanks!!! Were do you get your stats from? Take care!

Fatman