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1. Too Many Favorites: The novice bettor often looks at all the daily numbers and instinctively hones in on the favorites. They think: “The Dodgers are a minus-150 favorite at Milwaukee with Ishii going. LA is more likely to win, so I’ll back them.” Then they build reasons in their head why the favorite will probably win, rather than doing the research to support the play. In the end LA might be the side, but you have to find reasons – many, not just one – as to why that is the play.
One way to begin to break this habit is to review yesterday’s games. Notice how many dogs won – more than you probably thought yesterday morning! Remember that even the worst team in baseball that goes 64-98 still wins around 40% of the time. That means the worst team in baseball is going to win four out of every ten games, probably as a good sized dog, too. Naturally, you can get great prices on poor teams. If you bet two-dollar favorites on a regular basis, you need to win two of every three bets just to break even. Shooting for a 66-70 winning percentage is a tough way to try and turn a profit.
2. Betting Against Streaks: Some bettors think that it’s wise to bet against poor teams that are on a winning streak. There’s no better example as to why this way of thinking doesn’t work than to look at the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. Recently they had a stretch wining 12 straight games, many on the road. If you started betting against them after they had won six in a row simply because they were due to lose…well, you lost the next six.
3. Overvalue Starting Pitching: Betting lines in baseball are based roughly 90% on the starting pitchers. Remember that in this day and age, most starting pitchers only go 5-6 innings. That’s closer to one-half to two-thirds of the game, which leaves a huge chunk of the contest up to the relief staff. In short, starting pitching doesn’t determine 90% of the outcome of games, though the betting numbers suggest this. Starting pitching is one small piece of a big puzzle, and the smart bettor examines all the pieces.
4. Failure to Analyze Everything: When examining what might happen in a baseball game, some people look at one thing. Maybe they like the New York Yankees powerful offense against a weak opposing pitcher. Or, maybe Astros ace Roger Clemens is 14-4 lifetime against his opponent, so they make Houston a play.
This is too simple an approach. You just dig deeper. Maybe Clemens is 14-4 lifetime, which says something about his dominance over one team, but you must look further than that. How is Clemens doing over his last four starts? How is the Houston offense doing this week? Are they slumping? And if so, why? Are two key pieces of the offense limping? Examine the lineup that Clemens will be facing this game. Examine the park. Scrutinize the defensive abilities of both teams. You must analyze many factors and put them together to identify a sound play, not just one piece.
One way to begin to break this habit is to review yesterday’s games. Notice how many dogs won – more than you probably thought yesterday morning! Remember that even the worst team in baseball that goes 64-98 still wins around 40% of the time. That means the worst team in baseball is going to win four out of every ten games, probably as a good sized dog, too. Naturally, you can get great prices on poor teams. If you bet two-dollar favorites on a regular basis, you need to win two of every three bets just to break even. Shooting for a 66-70 winning percentage is a tough way to try and turn a profit.
2. Betting Against Streaks: Some bettors think that it’s wise to bet against poor teams that are on a winning streak. There’s no better example as to why this way of thinking doesn’t work than to look at the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. Recently they had a stretch wining 12 straight games, many on the road. If you started betting against them after they had won six in a row simply because they were due to lose…well, you lost the next six.
3. Overvalue Starting Pitching: Betting lines in baseball are based roughly 90% on the starting pitchers. Remember that in this day and age, most starting pitchers only go 5-6 innings. That’s closer to one-half to two-thirds of the game, which leaves a huge chunk of the contest up to the relief staff. In short, starting pitching doesn’t determine 90% of the outcome of games, though the betting numbers suggest this. Starting pitching is one small piece of a big puzzle, and the smart bettor examines all the pieces.
4. Failure to Analyze Everything: When examining what might happen in a baseball game, some people look at one thing. Maybe they like the New York Yankees powerful offense against a weak opposing pitcher. Or, maybe Astros ace Roger Clemens is 14-4 lifetime against his opponent, so they make Houston a play.
This is too simple an approach. You just dig deeper. Maybe Clemens is 14-4 lifetime, which says something about his dominance over one team, but you must look further than that. How is Clemens doing over his last four starts? How is the Houston offense doing this week? Are they slumping? And if so, why? Are two key pieces of the offense limping? Examine the lineup that Clemens will be facing this game. Examine the park. Scrutinize the defensive abilities of both teams. You must analyze many factors and put them together to identify a sound play, not just one piece.
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