All-Star games are traditionally difficult contests to handicap. You’ve got a group of players thrown together for one event and very little statistical information to help with the line.
This year, however, because of an obvious pitching advantage for the National League, the NL All-Stars are significant –139 favorites.
That’s a big number, considering the American League has won every All-Star Game since 1996, with the exception of the controversial 2002 tie game, so bettors should ask themselves, which is more important in a game of this nature: pitching or hitting?
From start (Roger Clemens) to finish (Eric Gagne) the NL has enough golden arms to keep almost any lineup off the board.
The top eight ERAs in baseball all reside in NL clubhouses, so if Clemens’ 42-year-old arm isn’t getting it done, there’s still Ben Sheets, Jason Schmidt, Carlos Zambrano, Tom Glavine and Randy Johnson waiting in the wings.
By comparison, the AL bullpen is decidedly less intimidating, especially since Curt Schilling and Tim Hudson - probably the two best hurlers on the roster - were scratched with injuries.
Mark Mulder, the Oakland A’s left-hander, will be on the hot seat as the AL starter. He will get some decent back-up from C.C. Sabathia, Javier Vasquez, Kenny Rogers and closer Mariano Rivera. But an NL batting lineup that looks more like an NFL defensive line could have a heyday without power pitchers like Pedro Martinez and Roy Halladay in the game this year.
At the plate, the Senior Circuit has power, even without Junior in the lineup. With Barry Bonds, Sammy Sosa, Albert Pujols, Scott Rolen and Carlos Beltran swinging the bat in a hitter-friendly park like Houston’s Minute Maid, there should be more than a few dingers in this one.
But the AL probably has the offensive advantage with a more complete lineup. Ichiro provides the speed, Pudge Rodriguez, Manny Ramirez, Vladimir Guerrero are all among the most consistent batters in the game with averages above .344 and Jason Giambi and his Yankees teammate Alex Rodriguez bring enough muscle to round out an intimidating order.
The question is, will it be enough to counter the outstanding pitching on the NL side?
A couple of years ago, the answer might have been no, but under new All-Star rules which give the winning side home-field advantage for the World Series, you know they won’t be throwing meatballs to please the crowd.
The pitching matchup really isn’t even close in this game. Any one of the first five or six names on the NL pitching lineup could start for the squad if it weren’t being played in Clemens’ hometown. The AL, on the other hand, could get into trouble once Mulder leaves the game.
As much as the fans would love to see an old school hit parade, this All-Star game will probably go to the pitchers.
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