Thursday's Service Plays & Request Thread

[BettorsChat]

nt

[Spark]

[email protected]
June 24, 2004



MLB Selections

(All selections based on a $100 wager)



Tigers -$105



SEASON RECORD 45-46-1 (+$520)

[caper]

Net Prophet for Thurs 6/24:

NOTE: If you're on the Prophet Sports VIP list I'm going to be sending around a bit of information on the partnership deals I'm considering. I've got some things to run past everyone in order to solicit some feedback. Look for this either today or Friday.

MLB:

Milwaukee (Sheets) -179 over Colorado (Cook)
Texas (Benoit) +108 over Seattle (Pineiro)
Oakland (Mulder) -108 over Anaheim (Ortiz)

CFL:

Toronto +2' over Ottawa
Toronto/Ottawa UNDER 56

College Baseball:

No lines posted yet. If Cal-State Fullerton starts their ace, Jason Windsor, I expect them to be a decent sized favorite. If they're a big enough favorite, I might take a shot on South Carolina. If I think its worth playing I'll update mid-day on Thursday in plenty of time for the 7:00 PM start. In any case, GO GAMECOCKS!

JRM/The Prophet

nonigoji (for clarity's sake, the NOTE is his, not mine)

[craig]

OTM

BOB G

JCD

thanks

[scraper]

WinOnBaseball.com - Thursday - 6/24/04

Welcome to our first annual service free trial!

-- WinOnBaseball handicaps Major League Baseball exclusively.

-- All plays with analysis, along with current and past season records, will be updated weekly on the "Records" page of our website.

-- All records will be documented at National Sports Monitor (*********.com)

-- NEXT UPDATE will be sent before 6:00am Pacific on Friday, June 25th.

Season record: 135-152 -32.01 UNITS

Lines from Pinnacle current as of 9:29pm Pacific on 06/23/04.

Seven plays for Thursday:

MIL (SHEETS) -178 over Col (Cook) - 1 UNIT - 11:05pm Pacific
This is the third and final game of "Coors hangover effect" bet that I will be taking for this road trip. Not a fan of the big number, but I'll be betting this game blindly.

OVER 8 ATL (HAMPTON)/FLA (WILLIS) +103 - 1 UNIT - 4:05pm Pacific
The Florida hitters have owned Hampton, so I expect them to put up a lot of runs against him. Willis has been streaky, and got hit hard in his last start, which followed a string of some high quality starts. The Atlanta lineup is not very good against lefties, but if they can manage two or three against Willis, this game should go over.

CHC (CLEMENT) +114 over STL (Carpenter) - 1 UNIT - 5:10pm Pacific
Clement has dominated the Cardinals this year. Already, he has a 3-0 record with a 2.74 ERA and .169 BAA against them, including a dominating performance at Busch. Carpenter has been excellent also, but Clement as a dog is pretty good value, especially given his past success against them.

UNDER 8.5 CHC (CLEMENT)/STL (CARPENTER) -102 - 1 UNIT - 5:05pm Pacific
Should be a nice pitcher's duel here. Still think the Cubs win behind Clement, though.

UNDER 10.5 SEA (PINEIRO)/TEX (BENOIT) -105 - 1 UNIT - 11:05am Pacific
Pineiro's 3-8 record and 4.60 ERA masks how well Pineiro's been pitching. He's quietly been one of the top pitchers in the league, and he's gone 8 IP with only one ER in each of his last three starts. Granted, he'll be in hitter friendly Arlington this time, but I think the progress he's made will offset any negative park effect. Benoit was moved up in the rotation so that he can pitch against the Mariners because he's had some success against them in the past. They still can't hit, so they shouldn't be a threat to put many runs up in this game.

DET (ROBERTSON ) -105 over KC (George) - 1 UNIT - 11:10am Pacific
Robertson has also quietly been one of the better pitchers in the AL. Having him start this game is gravy, as I think Detroit's offense can do some damage against George. George's command has been pretty terrible, so he'll put runners on base. He has thus far managed to keep the ball in the park, which won't last because he's a pretty extreme flyballer pitching in a hitter's park. It's just a matter of time before a team capitalizes on that, and Detroit's offense has been pretty good.

5 INNING BET: OAK (MULDER)/ANA (ORTIZ) -105 - 1 UNIT - 1:05pm Pacific
Mulder has dominated the Angel hitters over his career, and I expect him to continue the trend. However, Manager Ken Macha has said that he will be on a pitch count in this game, due to some heavy workloads this year, including a 123 pitch count start his last time out. Oakland's bullpen has blown a league high 16 saves. Hence, a 5 inning play looks like the safer bet here

[scraper]

PPP

Philadelphia with Milton (-145) over Montreal with Armas
Phillies have been clobbering the ball lately, hitting 94 homeruns this
season, including 27 in their last 15 games. They have far the superior
offense than the lowly Expos. They should tee off on the Expos'' Armas
today who in 4 starts has allowed 32 base runners in 17 innings pitched
for an 8.31 ERA, including a 10.80 ERA L3. Now that Expos have their
lowly 3 game winning streak snapped, don''t expect a Tampa Bay time
resurgence.

Toronto with Lilly (-130) over Tampa Bay with Halama
"I called the turn" on TBay''s 23-6 and 12 game winning streak. Win or
lose, only an idiot would not play against the Rays today. Despite a mini
slump of their own, the Jays have far the better fire power. Today''s
starter, Ted Lilly, is in a hot streak, winning 4 of his last 5 starts,
with an ERA of 1.77 in L3, including an 18-5 K/BB ratio. Solid play on
the Jay today.

Texas with Benoit (pick) over Seattle with Pineiro
Must give credit to Seattle''s starter Pineiro for his recent hot streak
which has seen him post a 1.12 ERA L3 starts, allowing just 18 base
runners in 24 innings (L2 starts were against weak-hitting Montreal and
Pittsburgh). But that''s quite a discrepancy from his 2 previous starts
vs. the Rangers this year in which he allowed 22 base runners in 12 and
two thirds innings. Rangers have clearly shown their superior fire power,
first two nights of this series, winning by a combined score of 16-5. The
home/road dichotomy persists with the Rangers 22-11 home and Seattle''s
13-22 away. Though Texas starter Benoit can''t match Pineiro''s lofty
numbers in recent starts, he''s pitched quite well against them in the
last 2 years, allowing 0 ER in 17 innings of work. Rangers again for us
tonight.

COMP -
New York Yankees with Vazquez (-1.5 runs) over Baltimore with Ponson
Prior to last night''s 13-2 embarrassment at the hands of the Orioles, the
Yankees were 7-0 against the Birds, outscoring them by a count of 70-35.
Those 7 games are far more indicative of the team''s offensive prowess,
than last night''s debacle. Yankees'' starter Vazquez already has a 5-2
victory over Baltimore in which he went 7 innings, allowing just 5 hits.
The Yankees have won 5 of his last 6 starts. Baltimore''s starter Ponson
has been among the league''s largest failures. Baltimore has won just 1
of his last 11 starts, being outscored 94-35 in those 12 games. In 10 and
a third innings of work this year against the Yankees, he has a 13.06 ERA,
allowing 26 runners to reach base.

[Spark]

Originally posted by craig
OTM

BOB G

JCD

thanks

BOB G
MLB 32- 23 58% +9.5

Milwaukee - 1.5 runs +110 over Colorado


Brewers lost last night but had the bases loaded in the 8th and 9th and couldn't bring home the tying run. Milwaukee last night went 0 for 10 with runners in scoring position. This tells me that they break out today. Colorado doesn't win back to back road games. Big edge in the pitching match-up with Ben Sheets going for the Brew Crew. His 2.14 ERA in his last three and 2.59 ERA on the season far out distance his counterpart today in the Rockies Cook. Rockies 0-3 in Cook's last three starts and his ERA is over 9.00

[Spark]

CAPPERS INFO

MLB
28-15 +6769

MLB 300 Baltimore Orioles +185

[Spark]

MARC LAWRENCE

JUNE FREE PLAYS 31-7

PHILLY
Philadelphia w/Milton over Montreal w/Armas
Phillies are 11-3 behind Eric Milton, who is 13-3 (4-0 this year0 in his team starts in June. With Tony Armas in struggling KW form, look for Philadelphia to have their way north of the border today.

MILWAUKEE
Colorado is 2-9 away in Game Three of a series and 2-7 away in day games vs right handers this season

[craig]

Thanks SPARK!

Can you post the others as soon as you get them? Thanks

[Spark]

Originally posted by craig
OTM

BOB G

JCD

thanks

OTM

37-12
(11-8 IN JUNE)

PIT/HOU OVER

[KCStar]

Charlie Sports - Giants OVER 9

Black Widow - 6* Houston -1.5, 4* Giants OVER, Cubs, Cubs UNDER

Info Plays - 10* Mets

[Spark]

POSITIVE UNTIS
16-7 +411

Philadelphia (-145)

Milton (L) vs. Armas (R)

Milton - 7-1 TSR as a favorite of -125 to -175

Armas - Montreal 3-15 off 3+ Unders

[Spark]

AAA Sports
Baseball Play/Thursday.......

The following is a regular 3% game...

Texas Rangers -105 (Pineiro/Benoit)

[Spark]

Thanks Neil

Dunkel Index - Thursday
THURSDAY, JUNE 24

National League

Philadelphia (Milton) 11.78 (2 1/2) Montreal* (Armas) 9.13
O/U: 9 1/2

New York Mets* (Glavine) 12.04 (2 1/2) Cincinnati (Lidle) 9.92
O/U: 8

Milwaukee* (Sheets) 11.63 (3) Colorado (Cook) 8.66
O/U: 9 1/2

Florida* (Willis) 10.92 (3) Atlanta (Hampton) 8.07
O/U: 8 1/2

San Francisco* (Tomko) 11.28 (1) Los Angeles (Nomo) 10.23
O/U: 10

Houston* (Clemens) 10.11 (1) Pittsburgh (Burnett) 8.99
O/U: 8 1/2

St. Louis* (Carpenter) 11.48 (Even) Chicago Cubs (Clement) 11.47
O/U: 8 1/2

American League

Tampa Bay (Halama) 11.04 (1 1/2) Toronto* (Lilly) 9.61
O/U: 7 1/2

Minnesota (Radke) 11.37 (1) Boston* (Wakefield) 10.16
O/U: 9 1/2

Cleveland (Westbrook) 11.58 (2 1/2) Chicago White Sox* (Rauch) 9.02
O/U: 12

Texas* (Benoit) 11.29 (1 1/2) Seattle (Pineiro) 9.96
O/U: 10 1/2

Kansas City* (George) 10.18 (1) Detroit (Robertson) 8.96
O/U: 8 1/2

Oakland (Mulder) 10.06 (1) Anaheim* (Ortiz) 9.08
O/U: 8

New York Yankees (Vazquez) 11.67 (3) Baltimore* (Ponson) 8.69
O/U: 10