Houston/Pittsburgh total tonight

[bgh2003]

Consider the following:

• Under is 7-1 in Fogg's last eight starts vs. HOU.
• Under is 5-1 in Redding's last six starts vs. PIT.
• Under is 11-1-1 in the last 13 meetings between these teams.

Then consider:

The last 5 games between these teams have averaged 6 runs a game, with the highest total being 8.

The Pirates have played under in 6 of their last 9 contests.

The Astros have not scored more than 5 runs in their last 10 games.

The Pirates have scored more than 5 runs only once in their last 10 (during that ridiculous Oakland series).

Why did the total open at 9.5? (It's now 9ov.) Are the books casting their lines here?

[wizardofoddz]

bgh2003

Looks like the fishing gear is out....
Best Of Luck

[Lucky Leo]

I hope not. I got the under for 5 units.

[TDS]

Funny thing is public is pounding the OVER.

[smitty519]

Trends aside, with Fogg and Redding on the mound this game could potentialy have about 20 runs.

[astro]

The time to pound a Redding start is when it looks like he has
no chance to win. When he pitches a couple of good starts
and then he faces a below .500 type team, he gets his ass
handed to him.

Look for him to get pounded tonight. I'm hitting the alternate
run total, over 3.5 -185 for 5 innings hard tonight. If Fogg
doesn't have his great control and starts walking a few, the
Stros might cover that number.

[bgh2003]

Thanks to all for the feedback, particularly the Wizard, who is the master of sniffing out a fishy line.

I'm putting a sizable play on the over 9. Let's see what happens.

[wizardofoddz]

bgh2003

here's some fishing gear,
ANAHEIM with Lackey at home have gone under the posted total in the last 12 and 17 of the last 18 at home dating back to 7/25/03

[bgh2003]

I see that--thank you for pointing that out. But the total (8.5) doesn't seem that fishy. Or am I missing something?

[astro]

Predictable Redding start; shitty team; shitty pitching. 3 two
thirds innings and 4 earned runs. Congrats to all that took
the alternate run line over 3.5 run winner.

[wizardofoddz]

bgh2003

Thanks, my man
Good call

[bgh2003]

no problem wiz

You've given out plenty of winners here; I'm glad I could return the favor.

[frankb03]

BGH

You posted in my thread yesterday:

If you like playing overs, as I and 95 percent of the betting public does, yesterday was an absolute carnage. I have never seen a day when 12 out of 15 games went over (12 out of 15 games went under yesterday). Why can't that ever happen?

Ironically, the prior Sunday, June 13 was 10/5 favoring the 'Overs'.

[bgh2003]

frankb

Well, 10 out of 15 still isn't 12 out of 15. . . lol. I do remember that day well because I played 4 or 5 overs, and won them all.