NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 4 (Thur., Sep. 30 - Mon., Oct. 4)

[Udog]

NFL Trends and Indexes

Thursday, September 30 - Monday, October 4

Additional trends and information will be added as available.

NOTE:
As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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[Udog]

Betting Recap - Week 3
Joe Williams

Overall Notes



The largest underdogs to win straight up

Chargers +7 (ML +260) at Chiefs, 30-24
Packers +3 (ML +160) at 49ers, 30-28
Saints +3 (ML +130) at Patriots, 28-13
Bengals +3 (ML +125) at Steelers, 24-10

The largest favorites to cover

Broncos (-10) vs. Jets, 26-0
Cardinals (-8) at Jaguars, 31-19
Panthers (-8) at Texans, 24-9
Browns (-7.5) vs. Bears, 26-6
Bills (-7) vs. Washington, 43-21

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week

Money line bettors of the Detroit Lions (+7.5, ML +320) didn't care about NFL history. They wanted money. And they were oh-so-close.

The Lions led 17-16 with seven seconds left in the game. On 4th and 19, it appeared the Lions were on their way to the first victory of the season. QB Lamar Jackson tossed up a 36-yard prayer to WR Sammy Watkins, who kept hope alive. Jackson then stopped the clock on a spike, even though the telecast appeared to show the play clock expired. That gave PK Justin Tucker a chance at a 67-yard field goal attempt at the buzzer, a try which would make NFL history.

Tucker took a little jump-step on the attempt, gave it a ride and it hit the crossbar and bounced over for the winner, and NFL history, although perhaps it shouldn't have been. Money line bettors of the Lions were left shaking their heads at the terrible luck.

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week - Part II

UNDER bettors in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers-Los Angeles Rams (55.5) gave were feeling very good after a scoreless first quarter. The books expected fireworks, and they eventually came in the second and third quarters, with L.A. taking a 31-17 lead after 45 minutes. Suddenly, a sure UNDER bet was now looking like the OVER everyone thought this game would be.

However, the offensive grinded to a halt once again, as we had only a PK Matt Gay field goal from 26 yards out with 8:14 to go in regulation, as the Rams were doubling up the defending champs, 34-17. That's the way things past the two-minute warning, although the Bucs weren't giving up. Much to the dismay of UNDER bettors, QB Tom Brady was under center still, and he wasn't quitting. He hit RB Giovani Bernard for a 7-yard touchdown with 1:10 to go, flipping the UNDER to an OVER result.

Total Recall

The lowest total on the board in Week 3 wasn't low enough. The New York Jets-Denver Broncos (41.5) was expected to be a defensive battle, and the Jets certainly cooperated. They scored as many points and you and I, while the Broncos were good for 26 points in the shutout victory.

The second-lowest total was the Cincinnati Bengals-Pittsburgh Steelers (42) game, and we had an unexpected result in that one. The Bengals picked up the road victory, winning 24-10. No one expected the Steelers to manage just 10 points at home against the lowly Bengals, but that's exactly what happened. Next lowest was the Thursday game between the Carolina Panthers-Houston Texans (43), then the New Orleans Saints-New England Patriots (43.5) and Chicago Bears-Cleveland Browns (44.5). All of those games hit the UNDER, too, in what was mostly a low-scoring week.

As far as the highest total, that honor belonged to the Buccaneers-Rams game, and we touched on how that one ended above. The Los Angeles Chargers-Kansas City Chiefs (55) gave was the second-highest total, and that just went UNDER despite a scoreless first quarter. In fact, some shops opened that one at 53.5, so OVER bettors might have hit this bet if they bet it early.

As far as primetime games, the Panthers-Texans gave was the first UNDER of the season for games under the lights. The Sunday night affair between the Green Bay Packers-San Francisco 49ers (51) was another thriller, and a combined 27 points in the fourth quarter helped the OVER connect. That's now 7-1 (87.5%) through eight primetime games, with the Monday night battle between the Philadelphia Eagles-Dallas Cowboys (52) still pending. In 2020, the UNDER was 28-19-1 (59.5%) in 48 primetime contests. In 2019, the UNDER went 31-17-1 (64.6%) during primetime games.

Looking Ahead to Week 4

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

The Lions (0-3) and Bears (1-2) will be looking to avoid the basement in the NFC North Division. The Lions hit the road for the second time this season, and they're hoping for better results. Detroit fell 35-17 at
Green Bay in Week 2 on Monday night, failing to cover as the OVER hit.

The Lions are 4-9 ATS in the past 13 games on the road, and 3-7 in the past 10 as a road 'dog, too. For the Bears, they are 1-7 ATS in the past eight as a home favorite, while going 1-4 ATS in the past five inside the division, too.

As far as the total, the OVER is 5-1 in the past six inside the division for the Lions, while the OVER is a perfect 4-0 in the past four division games for the Bears. In addition, Detroit is 1-3-1 ATS in the past five trips to Chicago.

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET)

It's a battle of unbeatens for the top spot in the NFC West, as the Cardinals (3-0) travel to meet the Rams (3-0). Arizona is 2-0 SU/ATS in two games on the road, while hitting the UNDER in each away game. For the Rams, they're a perfect 2-0 ATS in two home games, so something's gotta give there, too. The OVER has connected in each of the three games for the Rams so far.

The Cards have a dismal 0-4 ATS mark in the past four inside the division, while going 0-5 ATS in the past five against teams with a winning record. On the flip side, the Rams are 4-1 ATS in the past five at home, while going 7-2 ATS in the past nine against winning teams. L.A. is also 10-4-1 ATS in the past inside the division.

The UNDER is 13-3 in Arizona's past 16 on the road, and 5-0 in the past five as a road underdog. While it's all OVER all the time for the Rams so far, the UNDER is 13-3 in their past 16 as a home favorite, and 5-2 in the past seven inside the division.

Arizona has had a tough time in L.A., too, going 0-3-1 ATS in the four in SoCal, and 0-7-1 ATs in the past eight meetings overall.

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET)

The Seahawks have lost and failed to cover each of the past two outigs, while the 49ers are coming off a disappointing loss at home to the Packers on Sunday night.

Seattle failed to cover on the road in Minnesota, and they're now 1-7 ATS in the past eight on the road. Seattle has covered just three of the past 10 inside the NFC West, too. San Francisco has covered four of the past five inside the division, although they are just 5-21-1 ATS in the past 27 as a home favorite.

The UNDER is 9-3 in the past 12 for the Seahawks, while going 5-1 in the past six on the road. The 49ers have hit the OVER in four of the past five at home, while the OVER is 5-2 in the past seven as a favorite.

In this series, the Seahawks are an impressive 13-5-1 ATS in the past 19 meetings, while the OVER is 4-1 in the past five meetings in Santa Clara, while the OVER is 5-0-1 in the past six meetings.

Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET)

The Raiders (3-0) and Chargers (2-1) meet in a marquee game in the AFC West. Who would've predicted that a season ago? Or even three weeks ago?

There's something about Monday that agrees with the silver and black. They topped the Ravens in Week 1 in a stellar MNF game, and they're 4-0 ATS in the past four appearances on Monday night. Vegas is also 6-2 ATS in the past eight inside the division.

The Bolts have covered four straight inside the division, and they're 6-1 ATS in the past seven games overall.

Meanwhile, the OVER is 5-1 in the past six inside the division for the Raiders, while going 6-2 in the past eight on the road. The OVER is 5-1 in the past six for the Chargers against winning teams, and 4-1 in the past five inside the division.

The underdog is 18-6 in the past 24 meetings in this series, with the UNDER 16-4-1 in the past 21 meetings in Southern California.


 

[Udog]

Tech Trends - Week 4
Bruce Marshall

[Udog]

JACKSONVILLE is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after allowing 6 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games in the last 3 seasons.

ATLANTA is 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) against teams who force 0.75 or less turnovers/game on the season since 1992.

CHICAGO is 18-6 ATS (11.4 Units) in home games after gaining 200 or less total yards in their previous game since 1992.

NY JETS are 1-10 ATS (-10 Units) in the 1rst half of the season in the last 2 seasons.

MINNESOTA is 30-11 ATS (17.9 Units) in home games vs. excellent ball control teams, 32 or more possession minutes/game since 1992.

MIAMI is 6-0 ATS (6 Units) after a loss in the last 2 seasons.

CAROLINA is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) in road games in the last 2 seasons.

NY GIANTS are 7-0 ATS (7 Units) in road games against conference opponents in the last 2 seasons.

KANSAS CITY is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) after playing a game at home in the last 2 seasons.

HOUSTON is 17-34 ATS (-20.4 Units) versus excellent offensive teams - averaging >=375 yards/game since 1992.

ARIZONA is 22-8 ATS (13.2 Units) in road games vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 6+ PPG on the season since 1992.

SAN FRANCISCO is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) vs. bad defenses (>24 PPG) over the last 2 seasons.

DENVER is 14-4 ATS (9.6 Units) after going under the total in the last 3 seasons.

PITTSBURGH is 68-33 ATS (31.7 Units) vs. good passing QB (>7 PYA) since 1992.

NEW ENGLAND is 25-9 ATS (15.1 Units) in home games as a dog since 1992.

LAS VEGAS are 34-74 ATS (-47.4 Units) vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing <= 7.5 yards per return since 1992.

[Udog]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 4

[Udog]

NFL

Week 4

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Trend Report
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Jacksonville @ Cincinnati
Jacksonville
Jacksonville is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Cincinnati
Jacksonville is 2-4-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Cincinnati
Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Cincinnati is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Jacksonville

Detroit @ Chicago
Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Detroit's last 13 games
Chicago
Chicago is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Chicago's last 20 games at home

Carolina @ Dallas
Carolina
Carolina is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Carolina's last 5 games
Dallas
Dallas is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Dallas's last 11 games at home

NY Giants @ New Orleans
NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of NY Giants's last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of NY Giants's last 7 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Orleans's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New Orleans's last 7 games when playing at home against NY Giants

Cleveland @ Minnesota
Cleveland
Cleveland is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Cleveland is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Minnesota's last 10 games at home

Houston @ Buffalo
Houston
Houston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 6 games when playing Buffalo
Buffalo
Buffalo is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 6 games when playing Houston

Tennessee @ NY Jets
Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Tennessee's last 8 games on the road
Tennessee is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
NY Jets
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of NY Jets's last 7 games
NY Jets is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Tennessee

Kansas City @ Philadelphia
Kansas City
Kansas City is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games on the road
Kansas City is 20-5 SU in its last 25 games
Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 6 games at home
Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home

Indianapolis @ Miami
Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games when playing Miami
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Indianapolis's last 8 games on the road
Miami
Miami is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games when playing Indianapolis

Washington @ Atlanta
Washington
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Washington is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Atlanta
Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Washington
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing at home against Washington

Seattle @ San Francisco
Seattle
Seattle is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games when playing San Francisco
Seattle is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Francisco's last 6 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games when playing at home against Seattle

Arizona @ LA Rams
Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games
LA Rams
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Rams's last 5 games
LA Rams is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Arizona

Baltimore @ Denver
Baltimore
Baltimore is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games on the road
Denver
Denver is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Baltimore
Denver is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

Pittsburgh @ Green Bay
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games when playing Green Bay
Green Bay
Green Bay is 15-2 SU in its last 17 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Green Bay's last 7 games

Tampa Bay @ New England
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games
Tampa Bay is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games on the road
New England
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of New England's last 8 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of New England's last 11 games

Las Vegas @ LA Chargers
Las Vegas
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Las Vegas's last 8 games
Las Vegas is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
LA Chargers
LA Chargers is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
LA Chargers is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games


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[Udog]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-up

Week 4

Thursday game
Jacksonville (0-3) @ Cincinnati (2-1)
— Jaguars have now lost 18 games in a row.
— Jacksonville gave up 30.3 ppg in first three games this year.
— Jacksonville is already minus-8 in turnovers (1-9)
— Last 3+ years, Jacksonville is 7-12-2 ATS as road underdogs.
— Jaguars converted 9 of 33 third down plays.
— Jaguars scored a special teams TD in each of their last two games.
— NFC South non-divisional underdogs are 3-4 ATS.

— Last 5 times Cincinnati beat Steelers, they’re 5-0 SU (4-1 ATS) next game.
— Last two games, Bengals allowed only two TD’s on 20 drives.
— Bengals have had a TD play of 34+ yards in all three games.
— Cincy is even in turnovers; last two years, they were minus-21.
— Last 4+ years, Bengals are 5-8 ATS as a home favorites.
— This is first time Bengals are favored since Week 4 LY vs Jaguars (W33-25, -1.5).
— NFC North non-divisional favorites are 1-4 ATS.

— Bengals are 5-2 in last seven series games.
— Jaguars lost three of last four visits to Cincy (lost 33-25 here LY)

[Udog]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-up

Week 4

Sunday's games
Washington (1-2) @ Atlanta (1-2)
— Washington lost two of first three games, giving up 30.7 ppg.
— Washington has converted only 14-34 on third down.
— Washington opponents converted 27-46 on third down.
— Last 3+ years, under is 15-10 in their road games.
— Washington is 11-8-1 ATS last 20 games where spread was 3 or less points.
— Last 5+ years, Washington is 19-14-1 ATS as a road underdog.

— Falcons got in win column LW, after giving up 80 points in first two games.
— Last two games, Atlanta threw 84 passes, ran ball only 40 times.
— Last two games, Falcons have 11 plays of 20+ yards, opponents have 7.
— Last 3+ years, Atlanta is 10-15 ATS at home.
— Falcons converted 14-42 third down plays so far.
— Atlanta is 7-15 ATS last 22 games where spread was 3 or less points.

— Falcons won last six series games.
— Washington lost last three visits here, last of which was in 2015.
— While at Carolina, Ron Rivera lost 8 of last 9 games vs Atlanta.

Detroit (0-3) @ Chicago (1-2)
— Lions are 0-3, losing LW on 66-yard FG at the gun.
— Lions has converted only 11-34 third down plays.
— Detroit gave up 11.5/7.6/7.7 yards/pass attempt so far this year
— Detroit is 5-7-1 ATS last 13 games as road underdogs.
— Last 3+ years, Lions are 3-6-1 ATS in NFC North road tilts.
— Goff is 0-10 SU (2-8 ATS) with coach other than McVay.

— Rookie QB Fields’ first NFL start was a horror- they had ONE passing yard.
— In their last two games, Bears have one TD on 19 drives.
— Chicago has been outscored 54-23 in second half of games.
— Last 2+ years, Chicago is 3-6 ATS as home favorite.
— Bears averaged 4.4/3.1/0.0 yards/pass play in three games- no bueno.
— Nick Foles is the backup; will they use him at all?

— Bears won five of last six series games.
— Teams split last four meetings in Soldier Field.
— Lions won 34-30 here LY.

Tennessee (2-1) @ NJ Jets (0-3)
— Tennessee won last two games, running ball for 392 yards.
— Titans outscored last two opponents 35-12 in 2nd half.
— Titans have been minus in turnovers all three games (-6 for year).
— Last two seasons, Tennessee was +16 in turnovers.
— Last 6+ years, Titans are 7-11-1 ATS as road favorites.
— Tennessee is 8-4 ATS last dozen games on artificial turf.

— Jets lost first two games, scoring two TD’s on 32 drives.
— Jets have been outscored 46-3 in first half.
— Jets lost field position by 14-15-13 yards.
— Last 3+ years, Jets are 8-6 ATS as home underdogs.
— All three Jets games stayed under the total.
— Rookie QB’s struggle; they’re 1-10 ATS so far this season.

— Teams split last eight series games.
— Titans lost last three series games here; last win was in 1996.
— Jets weren’t always the Jets; they used to be the New York Titans.

Cleveland (2-1) @ Minnesota (1-2)
— Browns won last two games, scoring 31-26 points.
— Browns ran ball for 153-156-215 yards in first three games.
— Cleveland outscored foes 14-0 in last 2:00 of each half.
— Browns are 6-11 ATS in last 17 road games.
— Cleveland covered last five games vs NFC teams.
— Browns is 8-17 ATS in last 25 games on artificial turf.

— Vikings scored 29 ppg in first three games (9 TD’s on 32 drives)
— Last two games, Minnesota gave up 9.5/8.3 yards/pass play.
— Vikings’ two losses are by total of four points.
— Minnesota had better balance LW: 34 runs, 38 passes
— Last 7+ years, Vikings are 19-10 ATS vs AFC teams.
— Opponents have scored 48 points on eight red zone drives.

— Cleveland coach Stefanski was a Viking assistant for 13 years.
— Vikings won three of last four series games.
— Teams split two meetings in Twin Cities; last one was 2013.

Indianapolis (0-3) @ Miami (1-2)
— Colts lost first three games, giving up 28-27-25 points.
— Indy gained only 5.9/6.0/4.6 yards/pass attempt in those games.
— Colts lost 25-16 @ Tennessee LW despite being +3 in turnovers.
— Colts are 13-8-1 ATS in last 22 games on natural grass.
— Under Reich, Colts are 7-7-1 ATS as road underdogs.
— Indy has only 39 points in 11 red zone drives.

— Miami lost last two games, giving up 35-31 points.
— Miami lost in OT in Las Vegas LW, after tying game with 0:02 left.
— Dolphins have given up 136 rushing yards/game this season.
— Miami has given up 21 plays of 20+ yards, has only 6 themselves.
— Last two weeks, Miami gained 2.9/3.9 yards/pass play.
— Brissett is 12-21 as a starting QB in NFL.

— Colts won six of last eight series games.
— Indy won last three visits here, winning last one 18-13 in 2015.
— 7 of last 8 series games were decided by 6 or fewer points.

Carolina (3-0) @ Dallas (2-1)
— Carolina is stepping up in class here, especially QB-wise.
— Panthers won their first three games, giving up 10 ppg.
— Carolina outscored first three foes 40-6 in first half.
— Panthers allowed 191 total yards/game so far.
— Are Panthers this good, or were their opponents that bad?
— Last 7+ years, Carolina is 21-10 ATS as a road underdog.

— Dallas won last two games, covered all three, scoring 30 ppg.
— Cowboys have eight takeaways in two games (+5).
— Dallas has converted 21-39 third down plays.
— Cowboys have short week; Carolina played last Thursday.
— Dallas has 11 plays of 20+ yards, but has allowed 18 of them.
— Last four years, Cowboys are 10-12-1 ATS as home favorites.
— NFC East favorites are 5-9 ATS out of division.

— Carolina won last two meetings, 33-14/16-8.
— Cowboys haven’t beaten Carolina since 2012.
— Panthers are 2-4 at Dallas; their last visit here was 2015.

NY Giants (0-3) @ New Orleans (2-1)
— Giants lost first three games, last two by total of four points.
— On nine drives to red zone, Giants scored four TDs, two FGs.
— Last four years, Giants are 17-4 ATS as road underdogs.
— Giants outrushed last two opponents, 263-156.
— Giants have been outscored 27-9 in last 2:00 of each half.
— Last 5+ years, Giants are 28-22-1 ATS, coming off a loss.

— First home game for Saints after all the hurricane issues.
— Saints are +6 in turnovers in their wins, minus-1 in the loss.
— Saints ran ball for 171-142 yards in wins, 48 in the loss.
— Saints scored TD’s on eight of nine red zone drives.
— Last five years, New Orleans is 15-18 ATS as a home favorite.
— Last 5+ years, Saints are 34-21 ATS coming off a win.

— Saints won five of last seven series games.
— Giants lost last five in Superdome; their last win here was in 1993.
— Last time Giants were in New Orleans (’15) they lost 52-49.

Kansas City (1-2) @ Philadelphia (1-2)
— Andy Reid returns to Philly; he coached there 1999-2012.
— Chiefs lost last two games, by 1-6 points.
— KC allowed 31.7 ppg in first three games (13 TD’s/27 drives).
— Chiefs are 2-5-1 ATS last eight games as road favorites.
— KC has 12 plays of 20+ yards, their opponents have 17.
— Last six years, Chiefs are 9-14-1 ATS vs NFC teams.

— Short week for Eagles after Monday night loss in Dallas.
— Eagles’ RB’s ran ball only 3 times in 41-21 loss Monday nite.
— Last 5+ years, Eagles are 8-5 ATS as home underdogs.
— Philly has 14 plays of 20+ yards, has allowed only five.
— Eagles allowed 6-17 points first two games, then 41 Monday.
— Philly is 4-8 ATS in last dozen games vs AFC opponents.

— Teams split last eight series games.
— Chiefs won two of last three visits here.
— NFC East home teams are 4-7-1 ATS in non-division games.

Houston (1-2) @ Buffalo (2-1)
— Texans lost last two games, giving up 31-24 points.
— Rookie QB Mills makes 2nd NFL start; he was 19-28/151 passing LW.
— Jeff Driskel (1-8 as NFL starter) is backup; this is his 4th team in four years.
— Last 3+ years, Texans are 10-6 ATS as road underdogs.
— Texans have 12 plays of 20+ yards; their opponents have 16.
— Houston played on Thursday, so extra time to prep for this.

— Bills won last two games, scoring 35-43 points
— Buffalo has given up four TD’s on 32 drives.
— Last 4+ years, Bills are 12-8-1 ATS as home favorite.
— 6 of Buffalo’s last 10 TD drives were shorter than 60 yards.
— McDermott is 19-12-1 ATS as a favorite.
— Buffalo outscored first three foes 51-14 in first half.

— Houston is 6-4 in series games.
— Texans beat Buffalo 22-19 in OT in ’19 playoffs.
— Teams split four meetings here, last of which was in 2015.

Arizona (3-0) @ LA Rams (3-0)
— Arizona won its first three games, scoring 34.3 ppg.
— Cardinals have 12 TD’s on 34 drives this season.
— Arizona has 79 points on 13 drives to red zone (6.08)
— Last 2+ years, Arizona is 7-3-1 ATS as road underdogs.
— Last 8 years, Cardinals were 15-8-1 ATS in NFC West road games.
— Arizona has 15 plays of 20+ yards; their opponents have seven.

— Rams won their first three games, scoring 31.7 ppg.
— Rams averaged 11.6/8.7/8.5 yards/pass attempt first three games.
— Rams scored 21-17-20 points in 2nd half of their games.
— LA has 11 TD’s, six FGA’s on first 26 drives.
— LA is 8-5 ATS last 13 games as a home favorite.
— Rams are 7-3 ATS at SoFi Stadium.

— Rams won last eight series games.
— Cardinals lost last three visits here, by 34-7-11 points.
— Wolford was QB in Rams’ 18-7 win LY that put LA in playoffs.

Seattle (1-2) @ San Francisco (2-1)
— Seahawks lost last two games, giving up 33-30 points.
— Seattle has been outscored 39-13 in 2nd half of games.
— Seahawks are 6-2-1 ATS last nine games as road underdogs.
— Seattle is 3-6 ATS in last nine NFC West road games.
— Seattle has 16 plays of 20+ yards; they’ve given up 11.
— Seahawks averaged 9.3/9.4/8.3 yards/pass attempt.

— Last two games, 49ers converted 13-25 this down plays.
— 49ers have eight TD drives of 75+ yards.
— Last 3+ years, Niners are 4-13-1 ATS as home favorites
— 49ers had 8 plays of 20+ yards in opener, total of only 4 last two games.
— Last four years, 49ers were 4-7-1 ATS in NFC West home games.
— Niners have only takeaway (-4) in first three games.

— Seattle won 13 of last 15 series games.
— Seahawks won five of last six visits to Santa Clara.
— Teams met in Arizona LY because of the pandemic.

Baltimore (2-1) @ Denver (3-0)
— Baltimore won last two games, by total of three points.
— Ravens have converted only 10-34 third down plays.
— Last 3+ years, Ravens are 16-9-1 ATS on the road.
— Last 2+ years, Baltimore is 4-0 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less points.
— Last 2+ years, Ravens are 15-8-1 ATS coming off a win.
— Ravens have scored 50 points on eight red zone drives.

— Denver won first three games, outscoring foes 76-26.
— Two of their three games were against a rookie QB.
— Denver outscored opponents 39-12 in second half of games.
— Broncos are 4-0-1 ATS last five games with spread of 3 or less points.
— Denver has 16 plays of 20+ yards; opponents have nine.
— Broncos outgained first three opponents by 165.7 yards/game.

— Baltimore is 8-6 in last 14 meetings; last one was in 2018.
— Ravens lost 5 of last 7 visits here, losing last two by 22-6 points.
— Ravens’ last win here was in 2012 playoffs, in OT.

Pittsburgh (1-2) @ Green Bay (2-1)
— Steelers lost last two games, scoring 17-10 points.
— Steelers ran ball 50 times for 159 yards in three games.
— Steelers have been outscored 33-14 in first half of games.
— Pitt has scored only four TD’s on 29 drives this season.
— Last 4+ years, Pittsburgh is 11-3 ATS as road underdogs.
— Last three years, Pittsburgh is 9-3 ATS vs NFC opponents.

— Green Bay won last two games, scoring 35-30 points.
— In those two games, Packers scored 8 TD’s on 18 drives.
— Packers trailed first two games at half, trailed with 0:37 left LW.
— Green Bay didn’t turn ball over in last two games (+4)
— Last 2+ years, Packers are 11-6 ATS as home favorites.
— Last three years, Green Bay was 8-4 ATS vs AFC opponents.

— Steelers won five of last six meetings; the loss was Super Bowl XLV.
— Steelers won 20-10/38-31 in last two visits to Lambeau.
— Steelers’ last loss at Lambeau was in 1995.

Tampa Bay (2-1) @ New England (1-2)
— Lot of drama with Brady/Gronkowski returning to Foxboro.
— Average total in Tampa Bay’s first three games: 63.7.
— Bucs signed CB Sherman this week to shore up defense.
— Buccaneers already have 12 TD’s (on 34 drives)
— Last 2+ years, Buccaneers are 6-4 ATS as road favorites.
— Tampa Bay has 18 plays of 20+ yards; their opponents 17.

— Patriots lost two of first three games, scoring 18 ppg.
— Average total in New England’s first three games: 35.0.
— Patriots converted only 14-47 third down plays.
— New England scored only 29 points on 8 red zone drives.
— QB’s faced so far: Tagovailoa, Wilson, Winston.
— Last 10+ years, Patriots are 6-1 ATS as home underdogs.
— Belichick’s career record without Brady: 63-74 SU

— Patriots won last four meetings, by average score of 26-6.
— Bucs are 1-3 in Foxboro, with lone win in 2000.
— Tampa Bay lost 28-0/23-3 last two visits here.

Monday's game
Las Vegas (3-0) @ LA Chargers (2-1)
— Raiders won first three games, scoring 33-26-31 points.
— Las Vegas outscored opponents 59-37 in 2nd half/OT of games.
— Two of their three wins came in overtime.
— Raiders threw ball for 1,139 yards in three games.
— Opponents have converted only 14-42 third down plays.
— Raiders are 9-4 ATS in last 13 games as a road underdog.
— Last two years, Raiders were 4-2 ATS in AFC West road games.

— Chargers are 2-1; all three games were decided by 6 or fewer points.
— Bolts converted 23 of first 42 third down plays.
— Chargers allowed 198-186 rushing yards in last two games.
— Last 3+ years, Bolts are 3-14-1 ATS as home favorites.
— Last 8 years, Chargers are 5-18-1 ATS in AFC West home games.
— All three Charger games this year stayed under the total.

— Raiders won three of last four series games.
— Las Vegas (-1) beat Chargers 31-26 here last year.

[Udog]

Gridiron Angles - Week 4
Vince Akins

Play ON ATS Trend of the Week
Matchup: N.Y. Giants at New Orleans (1:00 p.m. ET)

-- The Giants are 13-0 ATS since October 2010 coming off a loss where they allowed less than 303 total yards.

Play AGAINST ATS Trend of the Week
Matchup: Kansas City at Philadelphia (1:00 p.m. ET)

-- The Eagles are 0-12 ATS since November 2015 at home coming off a loss and playing a team below .600 on the season.

Over OU Trend of the Week
Matchup: Houston at Buffalo (1:00 p.m. ET)

-- The Bills are 17-0 OU since October 31, 2004 as a favorite of at least four points when they allowed less than 303 total yards last game.

Under OU Trend of the Week
Matchup: Baltimore at Denver (4:25 p.m. ET)

-- The Broncos are 0-21 OU since October 2017 coming off a game as a favorite.

Super System of the Week

-- Teams which allowed less than 25 yards passing last game are 28-4 ATS in database history. Active on Cleveland.

Trends are verified using Sports Data Query Language (SDQL)


 

[Udog]

NFL
Weather Report

Week 4




 

[Udog]

Armadillo: Monday’s Den: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday

NY Giants 27, New Orleans 21, OT:
— Giants kicked 48-yard FG with 0:31 left to force OT.
— Giants drove 75 yards for TD on first drive of OT.
— Last 4+ years, Giants are 18-4 ATS as road underdogs.
— Giants’ last three games were decided by total of 10 points.

— Underdogs won Saints’ first four games SU.
— New Orleans had only two plays of 20+ yards; Giants had eight.
— Saints were 8-13 on 3rd down, gained 9.0 yards/pass attempt, but still lost.
— Daniel Jones averaged 10.1 yards/pass attempt for Giants.

Dallas 36, Carolina 28:
— Carolina led this game 14-13 at halftime.
— Cowboys’ first 3 drives in 2nd half: 11 plays, 159 yards, 3 TDs.
— Carolina’s first 4 drives in 2nd half: 19 plays, 63 yards, 2 turnovers.
— Dallas gained 433 TY; Carolina allowed total of 573 TY in 3-0 start.

— Dallas won/covered last three games, scoring 32 ppg.
— Cowboys have ten takeaways in two games (+7).
— Dallas had a 15-yard advantage in field position.
— Cowboys ran ball for 245 yards, outgained Carolina 433-379.

NJ Jets 27, Tennessee 24, OT
— Titans scored TD with 0:16 left to force OT.
— Bullock missed 49-yard FG to tie game in OT.
— Titans got to red zone on first 3 drives, but kicked 3 FG’s.
— Tennessee averaged 4.5 yards/pass attempt- Tannehill was sacked 7 times.

— First win for rookie QB Wilson, rookie coach Saleh.
— Jets had 3 TD’s on 12 drives; they had no TD’s on previous 21 drives.
— Last 3+ years, Jets are 9-6 ATS as home underdogs.
— Davis caught four passes for 111 yards and a TD.

Washington 34, Atlanta 30:
— Washington scored two TD’s in last 3:52 for the win.
— Carter ran opening kick of 2nd half 101 yards for a TD.
— Washington is 12-8-1 ATS last 21 games where spread was 3 or less points.
— Washington opponents converted 37-62 on third down.

— Falcons converted 10-16 on 3rd down, Washington 4-9.
— Atlanta allowed 32+ points in three of four games.
— Falcons’ WR Patterson caught 5 passes for 82 yards, 3 TD’s.
— Washington had 7 plays of 20+ yards, Atlanta only 2.

Chicago 24, Detroit 14:
— Detroit lost despite a 16-yard edge in field position.
— Lions got to red zone on first three drives, scored zero points.
— Detroit has been outscored 69-27 in first half of games.
— Goff is 0-11 SU (2-9 ATS) with coach other than McVay.

— Rookie QB Fields threw only 17 passes, averaged 10.2 yards/attempt.
— Bears’ first two drives: 18 plays, 164 yards, two TD’s.
— Home side won all four Chicago games this season.
— Chicago won six of last seven games vs Detroit.

Cleveland 14, Minnesota 7:
— Browns won last two games, allowing one TD on 20 drives.
— Cleveland scored 11 points in last 1:16 of first half.
— Browns ran ball for 177 yards/game in first four games.
— Cleveland covered last six games vs NFC teams.

— Vikings drove 75 yards on 14 plays for a TD on first drive.
— Rest of game, they ran 48 plays for 184 yards, zero points.
— Browns outgained Minnesota, 327-255.
— Not often an NFL game has a scoreless second half.

Indianapolis 27, Miami 17:
— Colts outgained Miami 349-203, get first win of year.
— Indy was better in red zone, scoring 17 points on three drives.
— Colts are 14-8-1 ATS in last 23 games on natural grass.
— Mo Alie-Cox caught 2 TD passes; he played basketball at VCU.

— Miami lost last three games, giving up 31 ppg.
— Miami’s first seven drives: 35 plays, 72 yards, 3 points.
— Dolphins have given up 136.8 rushing yards/game this season.
— Last three weeks, Miami gained 2.9/3.9/3.9 yards/pass play.

Kansas City 42, Philadelphia 30:
— Chiefs had ball seven times, scored six TD’s.
— Kansas City converted 9-10 third down plays.
— Tyreek Hill caught 11 passes for 186 yards, 3 TD’s.
— KC allowed 31.3 ppg in first three games (16 TD’s/34 drives).

— Eagles had 30 first downs, Chiefs 31; lot of first downs.
— Philly allowed 83 points in its last two games.
— Hurts threw 48 passes; Eagle RB’s had total of only 10 carries.
— Philly is 4-9 ATS in last thirteen games vs AFC opponents.

Buffalo 40, Houston 0:
— Bills have outscored foes 67-14 in first half.
— Buffalo had three FG’s shorter than 30 yards; not ideal.
— Bills ran for 199 yards, were +4 in turnovers.
— Buffalo has 18 plays of 20+ yards; opponents have six.

— Houston was outgained 450-109; no bueno.
— Texans were outscored 58-10 in 2nd half of last three games.
— Texans’ longest play in this game was 16 yards.
— Houston needs to trade QB Watson (Miami?) to stock up on draft picks.

Arizona 37, LA Rams 20:
— Cardinals had nine drives, scored 4 TD’s, 3 FG’s.
— Arizona converted 8-13 third down plays.
— Arizona won its first four games, scoring 35.0 ppg.
— Cardinals have 16 TD’s on 43 drives this season.

— Cardinals break 8-game losing skid against the Rans.
— LA turned ball over twice on first four drives.
— Rams allowed 445-465 yards in last two games.
— Quick turnaround; Rams visit Seattle Thursday.

Seattle 28, San Francisco 21:
— Seattle’s first 5 drives: 15 plays, minus-12 yards, no first downs.
— Rest of game: 35 plays, 254 yards, 28 points.
— Seahawks had a 14-yard edge in field position.
— Seattle won 14 of last 16 series games.

— 49ers outgained Seattle, 457-234, but were minus-2 in turnovers.
— Seattle scored two TD’s in 0:56 in 3rd quarter, after a fumbled kickoff.
— Garoppolo (calf) left game; rookie QB Lance threw for 157 yards, two TD’s.
— Teams combined to convert only 4-24 third down plays.

Baltimore 23, Denver 7:
— Baltimore won last three games, with 20 plays of 20+ yards (opponents 9).
— Ravens converted 7-17 third down plays, Denver only 3-14.
— Last 2+ years, Ravens are 16-8-1 ATS coming off a win.
— Last 3+ years, Ravens are 16-9-1 ATS on the road.

— Bridgewater (concussion) got KO’d; backup Lock threw for 113 yards, one INT
— Denver’s last 8 drives: 39 plays, 131 yards, 7 punts, one INT.
— Broncos punted on 10 of 12 drives in this game.
— All four Denver games have stayed under the total.

Green Bay 27, Pittsburgh 17:
— Green Bay won last three games, scoring 35-30-27 points.
— Packers converted 9-15 on third down, outgained Steelers 367-282.
— Last 2+ years, Packers are 12-6 ATS as home favorites.
— Last 3+ years, Green Bay is 9-4 ATS vs AFC opponents.

— Steelers lost last three games, scoring 14.7 ppg.
— Steelers ran ball 66 times for 221 yards in four games.
— Pitt has scored only six TD’s on 39 drives this season.
— Pitt was outscored 50-24 in first half of games.

Tampa Bay 19, New England 17:
— Tampa Bay scored only one TD, went 4-5 on FG’s.
— Last three drives: 30 plays, 165 yards, 13 points.
— Bucs converted 9-19 on 3rd down, Patriots 2-9.
— Patriots’ 56-yard FG clanked off left upright on last play.

— NE ran ball eight times for minus-1 yard the whole game.
— Patriots lost three of first four games, scoring 17.8 ppg.
— Brady without Belichick: 17-6
— Belichick without Brady: 63-76

 

[Udog]

Betting Recap - Week 4
Joe Williams

Overall Notes


The largest underdogs to win straight up

Giants +7 (ML +280) at Saints, 27-21 (OT)
Jets +5.5 (ML +210) vs. Titans, 27-24
Cardinals +4 (ML +175) at Rams, 37-20

The largest favorites to cover

Bills (-18) vs. Texans, 40-0
Chiefs (-7) at Eagles, 42-30
Packers (-6) vs. Steelers, 27-17

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week

If you were holding a money line ticket for the Atlanta Falcons (+2, ML +115), or if you took the points, it was a rough finish in Week 4 against the Washington Football Team.

It was a seesaw affair in the second and third quarters, before Atlanta surged to a 30-22 lead early in the fourth quarter. Washington cut the lead to 30-28 on a desperation sling into the end zone from QB Taylor Heinicke to WR Terry McLaurin from 17 yards out. The two-point conversion was missed, however. The worst was yet to come.

With left than a minute to go, WFT was driving for what appeared to be a game-winning field goal try. A 31-30 win would still have meant most side bettors for the Falcons would be able to cash winning tickets. However, RB J.D. McKissic shook free in the flat, rumbled 30 yards before diving for the end zone pylon. Initially, the play was called no score, but after a conference by the officials, and subsequent instant replay, the touchdown was signaled. That made it 34-30, and now WFT was covering. QB Matt Ryan, who tossed four touchdowns, had one last Hail Mary into the end zone with zeroes on the clock, but the pass was knocked down. Tough loss for side and money line bettors of Atlanta.

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week - Part II

The much ballyhooed return of Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Tom Brady to Foxboro turned out to be a really good football game. Well, it was good if you are a Tampa fan and/or you weren't holding a New England Patriots (+7, ML +260) money line ticket.

The OVER 49 was never a possibility, as the intermittment rain in Foxboro ended up keeping the scores down. In fact, we had just three points on the board, 13 total points at half and a total of 20 points through the first 45 minutes.

Things picked up a little bit in the fourth quarter, with the teams exchanging the lead. The Bucs led 13-7 heading to the fourth quarter, but a QB Mac Jones to TE Jonnu Smith touchdown strike gave the home side the lead on the first play of the fourth quarter.

After an early missed field goal on the slippery turf, PK Ryan Succop knocked a 27-yard field through with 7:58 to go to take a 16-14 lead. Patriots PK Nick Folk helped the home side back to the lead, going up 17-16 with 4:34 to go.

But you knew how this one was going to end in Brady's return home.

Jones, who was three years, 25 days old when Brady made his first NFL start against the Indianapolis Colts Sept. 30, 2001, put up a valiant effort. But Brady led the Bucs to the go-ahead 48-yard field goal with 1:57 to go, as Tampa re-took a 19-17 lead.

Jones helped the Patriots get within field-goal range, but Folk hit the left upright at the buzzer on a 56-yard field goal attempt as Brady and the Bucs escaped. If you had a New England ML ticket, condolensces.

Total Recall

The lowest total on the board in Week 4 was in the Detroit Lions-Chicago Bears (41.5) game, and we had a total of seven points each in the first, second and fourth quarters. The Bears ended up with a 24-14 win, but the UNDER ended up holding on.

The second-lowest total on the board was the Indianapolis Colts-Miami Dolphins (42), and we had just 10 points on the board at halftime. After three quarters, the Colts lead 17-3, so UNDER bettors looked safe. But we had 24 total points in the final 15 minutes, including a WR DeVante Parker touchdown with 4:24 to go, to inch the OVER across the finish line.

The highest total on the board was a tie. The Kansas City Chiefs-Philadelphia Eagles and Arizona Cardinals-Los Angeles Rams (54) games each ended up going over. The Chiefs saw QB Patrick Mahomes tossed five touchdowns, including three to WR Tyreek Hill, while QB Jalen Hurts flirted with 400 yards passing.

In the NFC West showdown, the Cardinals opened a 34-13 lead. That's how it looked like it would end, with no points in the first 11:22 of the fourth. However, PK Matt Prater booted a 23-yard field goal with 3:38 to make it 37-13. It was still UNDER, however, before a late touchdown from QB Matthew Stafford to WR Robert Woods with 1:14 to go, pushing the total OVER.

As far as primetime games, the Jacksonville Jaguars-Cincinnati Bengals (46) just ended up going UNDER, with the home side winning 24-21. The total did spend some time at 45 during the week, so it's possible at some shops it was a PUSH, but we'll officially call it UNDER since the close was 46. And the Bucs-Pats (49) game was an easy UNDER in the rain, making the UNDER 2-0 in primetime games heading into Monday's AFC showdown between the Las Vegas Raiders-Los Angeles Chargers (51.5). That's now 8-3 (72.7%) through 11 primetime games, with the Monday night battle still pending. In 2020, the UNDER was 28-19-1 (59.5%) in 48 primetime contests. In 2019, the UNDER went 31-17-1 (64.6%) during primetime games.

Looking Ahead to Week 5

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET)

The Rams (3-1) suffered their first loss of the season at home against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 4, and now they have the quick turnaround and another NFC West Division game.

The Seahawks (2-2) snapped a two-game skid with a gutsy 28-21 road win against the San Francisco 49ers. It helped that QB Jimmy Garoppolo (calf) left the game and is expected to miss time with a calf injury.

The Rams are 10-4-1 ATS in the past 15 against divisional foes, while the Seahawks are 3-7 ATS in their past 10 inside the NFC West. As far as the total, the UNDER is 5-2 in the past seven inside the division, while the UNDER is 5-2 in the past seven appearances on Thursday for Seattle.

L.A. has cashed in four of the past five meetings in this series, with the OVER hitting in four of the past five battles in Seattle.

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

The Titans (2-2) were without WRs A.J. Brown and Julio Jones due to injuries, and that certainly didn't help in their road loss against the New York Jets in Week 4 in overtime.

The Titans looked to bounce back in Jacksonville Jaguars (0-4), facing a Jags team which has had a couple of days to rebound after a loss Thursday in Cincinnati. Of course, the Jags have some distractions with head coach Urban Meyer appearing on social media in an unsavory manner.

Tennessee fell to 1-4 ATS in the past five as a road favorite. Jacksonville is 5-2 ATS in the past seven inside the division, although they're 2-5 ATS in the past seven at home.

The OVER is 6-1 in the past seven for the Titans inside the AFC South, although the UNDER is 9-2 in the past 11 meetings in Jacksonville. The Titans have covered six of the past eight against the Jags.

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

The Lions (0-4) hit the road looking for their first victory of the season. The Vikings (1-3) are looking to rebound from a 14-7 loss against the Cleveland Browns.

Detroit has covered just four of the past 13 games on the road, while the Vikings have failed to cover seven in a row dating back to last seasn. They're also 0-5 ATS in the past five as a favorite, and 0-4 ATS in the past four at home.

Looking to the total, the OVER is 5-1 in the past six inside the division for the Lions, while going 6-1 in the past seven vs. NFC North teams for the Vikings.

Minnesota has dominated the series, especially against the number, going 6-1 ATS in the past seven meetings, and 10-4-2 ATS in the past 16 battles in the Twin Cities. The UNDER is 7-1 in the past eight meetings in Minneapolis, too.

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET)

The Giants (1-3) earned their first win of the season in an overtime road win in New Orleans, while the Cowboys (3-1) won its third consecutive game, while grabbing a fourth straight cover in as many tries. The OVER is 3-1 in four games for the 'Boys.

New York has covered four straight inside the NFC East, while going 20-7 ATS in the past 27 on the road, including Week 4. The Giants are also 21-6 ATS in the past 27 as a road underdog.

Dallas is 1-5 ATS in the past six inside the division, while going 2-7 ATS in the past nine as a favorite.

The Giants have managed to cover just twice in the past eight meetings overall in this series, with the OVER 4-1 in the past five meetings, and 9-3 in the past 12 battles in Arlington.