Announcement

**Udog** · 09-14-2021, 10:46 PM

Tech Trends - Week 3
*Bruce Marshall

**Udog** · 09-14-2021, 10:48 PM

OHIO U is 10-2 ATS (7.8 Units) when playing on a Thursday since 1992.

UCF is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after a playing a game where 70 total points or more were scored in the last 3 seasons.

ILLINOIS are 1-10 ATS (-10 Units) after allowing 375 or more passing yards in their last game since 1992.

MICHIGAN ST is 18-4 ATS (13.6 Units) in road games after outgaining opp by 225 or more total yards in their previous game since 19...

N ILLINOIS are 48-24 ATS (21.6 Units) in road games as a road underdog since 1992.

ARMY is 9-25 ATS (-18.5 Units) vs. awful passing defenses - allowing 8.5 or more passing yards/att. since 1992.

VIRGINIA TECH is 39-20 ATS (17 Units) in road games off a non-conference game since 1992.

BUFFALO is 9-1 ATS (7.9 Units) in home games in the last 3 seasons.

FLORIDA ST is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) in road games after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers since 1992.

SMU is 8-0 ATS (8 Units) off a non-conference game in the last 3 seasons.

OHIO ST is 12-1 ATS (10.9 Units) against the American Athletic since 1992.

KANSAS are 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in home games when the total is 49.5-56 in the last 3 seasons.

BALL ST is 22-6 ATS (15.4 Units) as a road dog of <=7 since 1992.

TOLEDO is 10-29 ATS (-21.9 Units) after 2 straight overs since 1992.

NORTHWESTERN is 22-7 ATS (14.3 Units) in road games after gaining 125 or less passing yards in last game since 1992.

MEMPHIS are 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) after gaining 525 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games since 1992.

WASHINGTON is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) as a home fav. of 14.5-21 since 1992.

MIDDLE TENN ST is 30-15 ATS (13.5 Units) after a loss by 21 or more points since 1992.

LIBERTY is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) off 2 non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

MARSHALL is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) after allowing 125 or less passing yards in 2 straight games since 1992.

SOUTHERN MISS are 34-18 ATS (14.2 Units) off 2 non-conference games since 1992.

TEXAS TECH is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) with <=6 days rest in the last 3 seasons.

CHARLOTTE is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) after 2 straight unders since 1992.

UTAH is 13-3 ATS (9.7 Units) on the road when the total is 42.5-45 since 1992.

GEORGIA is 9-26 ATS (-19.6 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread since 1992.

AUBURN is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) in September games in the last 3 seasons.

AIR FORCE is 24-9 ATS (14.1 Units) after allowing 3.75 or less yards/play in their previous game since 1992.

C MICHIGAN is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) after a dominating performance - 34+ minutes TOP, 24+ First downs since 1992.

UAB is 28-12 ATS (14.8 Units) off 2 non-conference games since 1992.

STANFORD is 21-5 ATS (15.5 Units) in road games after a playing a game where 70 total points or more were scored since 1992.

RICE is 28-13 ATS (13.7 Units) in road games after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers since 1992.

TULANE is 10-27 ATS (-19.7 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread since 1992.

BOISE ST is 47-25 ATS (19.5 Units) after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better since 1992.

UNLV is 1-12 ATS (-12.2 Units) in home games after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better since 1992.

SAN JOSE ST is 36-17 ATS (17.3 Units) vs. very bad defensive teams who give up 34 or more points/game since 1992.

**Udog** · 09-14-2021, 10:50 PM

NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 3

**Udog** · 09-14-2021, 10:54 PM

NCAAF

Week 3

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Trend Report
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**Udog** · 09-16-2021, 11:49 AM

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-up

Week 3

Thursday’s game
Ohio (0-2) @ Louisiana (1-1)
— Ohio lost 28-26 to a I-AA team last week.
— Solich retired this summer; interim coach was OC for 17 years.
— Bobcats also lost 29-9 at home to Syracuse in their opener.
— Bobcats have 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
— Ohio has 48 returning starts on offensive line.
— Bobcats are playing a freshman QB with five starts.
— Last five years, Ohio is 8-2 ATS as a road underdog.

— Louisiana lost 38-18 at Texas, nipped a I-AA team 27-24 LW.
— Cajuns are 6-12 ATS out of conference.
— Cajuns have 10 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— You’re reading ***************.com
— Louisiana has 140 returning starts on offensive line.
— Cajuns’ senior QB has started 30 games.
— Under Napier, Louisiana is 7-7-1 ATS as home favorite.

— Louisiana (+3) won 45-25 at Ohio in last meeting, two years ago.
— Cajuns ran for 285 yards that day.

**Udog** · 09-16-2021, 09:52 PM

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-up

Week 3

Friday’s games
Central Florida (2-0) @ Louisville (1-1)
— UCF beat Boise State 36-31, beat a I-AA team 63-14.
— Knights ran ball for 255 yards, threw for 318.
— Knights have 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
— MSU has 99 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Knights have a soph QB with 24 career starts.
— Last two years, UCF was 7-13 ATS as a road favorite.
— Malzahn is 14-7-1 ATS as a road favorite.

— Louisville lost 43-24 to Ole Miss, beat a I-AA team 30-3.
— Ole Miss threw for 381 yards, outgained Cardinals 569-355
— Louisville has 7 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
— Cardinals have 95 returning starts on offensive line.
— Cardinals’ junior QB has started 16 games.
— Last four years, Louisville is 2-6-1 ATS as a home underdog.

— These teams haven’t met since 2013.

Maryland (2-0) @ Illinois (1-2)
— Maryland beat West Virginia 30-24, a I-AA team 62-0.
— Terps outgained WVU 496-325, throwing for 347 yards.
— Maryland has 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
— Maryland has 36 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Terrapins have sophomore QB who started 6 games.
— Last seven years, Maryland is 3-5 ATS as road favorite.
— Locksley is 1-2 ATS as a road favorite.

— Illinois gave up 79 points last 2 weeks, losing to UTSA/Virginia.
— Virginia threw for 423 yards, outgained Illini 556-337.
— Illinois has 9 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
— Illinois has 88 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Illini have sophomore QB who has started 17 games.
— Illinois is 9-14 ATS last 23 games as a home underdog.

— Maryland (-17.5) hammered Illini 63-33 three years ago, in only meeting.
— Terrapins ran ball for 431 yards in that game.

Saturday’s games
Michigan State (2-0) @ Miami (1-1)
— Michigan State won first two games, running for 326 yards @ Northwestern.
— Tucker is 3-5-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— Spartans have 9 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
— MSU has 120 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Michigan State has a QB who started 26 games for Temple.
— MSU is 7-13 ATS in last 20 non-conference games.

— Miami got hammered by Alabama, then nipped App State 25-23 LW.
— Miami is 7-10 ATS in last 17 non-conference games.
— Miami has 10 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
— Miami has 190 returning starts on offensive line.
— Hurricanes’ senior QB has started 32 games.
— Under Diaz, Miami is 5-7 ATS as a home favorite.

— These teams haven’t met in last 20 years.

Virginia Tech (2-0) @ West Virginia (1-1)
— Tech allowed 12 ppg in winning its first two games.
— Fuente is 22-15-2 ATS in non-conference games.
— Tech has 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
— Tech has 106 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Hokies’ junior QB has started six games.
— Under Fuente, Hokies are 5-5 ATS as road underdogs.

— West Virginia lost 30-24 at Maryland, then hammered a I-AA team.
— WVU is 6-11 ATS in last 16 non-conference games.
— Mountaineers have 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
— WVU has 54 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Mountaineers have junior QB with 32 career starts.
— Last four years, West Virginia is 10-5 ATS as home favorites.

— Virginia Tech won last three series games.
— Hokies won last three series games.

Cincinnati (2-0) @ Indiana (1-1)
— Bearcats whacked couple of stiffs to start season.
— Cincinnati is 7-2 ATS in last nine non-league games.
— Bearcats have 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
— Cincinnati has 48 returning starts on offensive line.
— Cincinnati has a junior QB with 37 career starts.
— Under Fickell, Cincinnati is 3-5 ATS as a road favorite.

— Hoosiers lost to Iowa, then pounded a I-AA team.
— Indiana was outgained 303-233 in loss to the Hawkeyes.
— Hoosiers have 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
— Indiana has 67 returning starts on offensive line.
— Indiana has a soph QB with 12 career starts.
— Under Allen, Indiana is 4-7 ATS as a home underdog.

— These teams haven’t met since 2000.

USC (1-1) @ Washington State (1-1)
— USC lost to Stanford Saturday, fired its coach Monday.
— USC gained 416-408 TY in first two games this year.
— Trojans have 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
— USC has 75 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Trojans have a soph QB with 19 career starts.
— USC is 12-7 ATS last 19 games as a road favorite.
— Who fires their coach on September 13?

— Wazzu lost 26-23 to Utah State, beat I-AA team 44-24.
— Rolovich is 5-7-1 ATS as a home underdog.
— Coogs have 8 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— Wazzu has 68 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Coogs have a soph QB with six career starts.
— Last six years, Wazzu is 4-2 ATS as home underdog.

— USC won 11 of last 13 series games.
— Trojans won five of last six visits to Pullman.
— Favorites are 8-5 ATS last 13 series games.

Alabama (2-0) @ Florida (2-0)
— Alabama waxed Miami 44-13, then beat up on a I-AA team.
— Alabama threw for 354 yards in win over Miami.
— Crimson Tide has 3 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
— Alabama has 89 returning starts on offensive line.
— Bama’s new QB has started two games.
— At Alabama, Saban is 33-23 ATS as a road favorite.

— Florida won first two games by 21-22 points (0-2 ATS)
— Gators ran ball for 763 yards in those two games.
— Florida has 5 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
— Gators have 54 returning starts on offensive line.
— Florida’s new QB has two career starts.
— Under Mullen, Florida is 3-1 ATS as an underdog.

— Alabama (-17) held Florida off 52-46 LY, their first meeting since 2016.
— Gators threw ball for 408 yards in tough loss.
— Alabama is 5-2 ATS in last seven series games.

Florida State (0-2) @ Wake Forest (2-0)
— Florida State lost 41-38 to Notre Dame, 20-17 to a I-AA team.
— FSU ran ball for 466 yards in two games, but they lost to a I-AA team.
— Seminoles have 10 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
— FSU has 100 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Seminoles’ senior QB started 33 games at UCF, was hurt last two years.
— FSU is 5-8 ATS last 13 games as a road underdog.

— Wake beat Old Dominion 42-10, a I-AA team 41-16.
— Deacons beat Florida State 22-20 in last meeting, in 2019.
— Wake has 11 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
— Deacons have 102 returning starts on offensive line.
— Wake has a sophomore QB with 21 career starts.
— Deacons are 9-5-1 ATS last 15 games as home favorites.

— Florida State won seven of last eight series games.
— Seminoles are 1-3-1 ATS in last five visits to Wake.
— Last 24 years, FSU is 2-0 ATS vs Wake as an underdog.

Utah (1-1) @ San Diego State (2-0)
— Utah lost 26-17 at rival BYU LW, giving up 219 YR.
— Last 3+ years, Utes are 2-6-1 ATS out of conference.
— Utah has 10 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
— Utes have 99 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Utah’s new quarterback started 39 games at Baylor.
— Last 5+ years, Utah is 11-6-1 ATS as a road favorite.

— San Diego State beat NM State 28-10, Arizona 38-14.
— Aztecs ran ball for 519 yards in those games.
— San Diego State has 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
— Aztecs have 65 returning starts on offensive line.
— San Diego State has a junior QB with 4 starts.
— Aztecs are 6-1-1 ATS in last eight games as home dogs.

— These teams haven’t met since 2010.

Auburn (2-0) @ Penn State (2-0)
— Auburn started season by scoring 60-62 points vs stiffs.
— Harsin is 7-3 ATS as a road underdog.
— Tigers have 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
— Auburn has 89 returning starts on offensive line.
— Tigers have a soph QB with 26 career starts.
— Last 7 years, Auburn is 4-10 ATS as a road underdog.

— Penn State won 16-10 at Wisconsin, hammered Ball State.
— PSU was outgained 359-297 by the Badgers.
— Penn State has 9 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
— Penn State has 47 returning starts on offensive line.
— Penn State has a junior QB, with 22 starts.
— Nittany Lions are 4-6-1 ATS last 11 games as home favorites.

— These teams haven’t met since 2002.

Virginia (2-0) @ North Carolina (1-1)
— Virginia hammered Illinois 42-14 LW, throwing for 423 yards.
— Cavaliers are 9-3 ATS last dozen non-league games.
— Virginia has 8 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
— Cavaliers have 122 returning starts on offensive line.
— Virginia has a soph QB with 11 starts.
— Last six years, Cavaliers are 15-11 ATS as a road underdog.

— UNC lost 17-10 at Va Tech, hammered Georgia State 59-17 LW.
— Tar Heels held both opponents this season under 300 yards.
— Tar Heels have 8 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— Tech has 111 returning starts on the offensive line.
— UNC has a soph QB with 27 career starts.
— Tar Heels are 5-1 ATS last six games as home favorites.

— Virginia won last four series games, scoring 34.3 ppg.
— Cavaliers are 5-2 ATS last seven visits to Kenan Stadium.
— Last two series games ended 38-31/44-41.

Tulane (1-1) @ Ole Miss (2-0)
— Tulane lost 40-35 at Oklahoma, whipped a I-AA team 69-20.
— Green Wave was outgained only 430-396 by the Sooners.
— Green Wave has 10 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
— Tulane has 114 returning starts on offensive line.
— Green Wave are playing a freshman QB with 11 starts.
— Under Fritz, Tulane is 7-11-1 ATS as a road underdog.

— Ole Miss waxed Louisville 43-24, beat a I-AA team 54-17.
— Rebels are 7-11 ATS out of conference.
— Rebels have 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
— Ole Miss has 64 returning starts on offensive line.
— Rebels’ soph QB has started 16 games.
— Last three years, Ole Miss is 6-4 ATS as home favorite.

— These teams haven’t met since 2012.

Oklahoma State (2-0) @ Boise State (1-1)
— Oklahoma State edged Tulsa 28-23 LW; they were outshined, 347-313.
— OSU is 16-3 ATS in last 19 non-league games.
— Cowboys have 5 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
— OSU has 103 returning starts on offensive line.
— Cowboys’ soph QB has started 21 games.
— OSU is 6-3 ATS in last nine games as a road underdog.

— Boise State lost opener 36-31 at UCF, pounded UTEP 54-13.
— Broncos were outgained 573-283 by Central Florida.
— Boise State has 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
— Broncos have 66 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Boise has soph QB who has started 15 games.
— Last 2+ years, Boise is 8-2 ATS as a home favorite.

— Oklahoma State (-1) beat Boise 44-21 in ’18; Broncos threw for 380 yards.

Arizona State (2-0) @ BYU (2-0)
— Arizona State beat UNLV 37-10 LW, beat a I-AA team 41-14.
— ASU ran for 287 yards against the Rebels.
— Sun Devils have 9 starters back on offense, 11 on defense.
— ASU has 47 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Sun Devils have a soph QB with 18 career starts.
— Under Edwards, ASU is 5-10 ATS as a favorite, 2-4 on road.

— BYU beat Arizona 24-16, then upset rival Utah 26-17 LW.
— Last week was first time Cougars beat Utah since 2009.
— Cougars have 7 starters back on offense, 4 on defense.
— BYU has 86 returning starts on the offensive line.
— BYU’s QB has started two games, won ‘em both.
— Under Sitake, BYU is 3-5-1 ATS as home underdogs.

— Teams haven’t met since 1998.

Fresno State (2-1) @ UCLA (2-0)
— Fresno hammered couple of stiffs, lost 31-24 at Oregon.
— Bulldogs outgained Oregon 373-358, were -2 in turnovers.
— Fresno has 9 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— Bulldogs have 51 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Fresno’s QB has nine career starts.
— Bulldogs are 8-2 ATS last ten games as road underdogs.

— UCLA had LW off after beating LSU 38-27.
— Bruins ran ball for 244-210 yards in first two games.
— UCLA has 10 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— Bruins have 73 returning starts on the offensive line.
— UCLA’s junior QB is making his 25th career start.
— Under Kelly, Bruins are 4-6 ATS as home favorite, 2-0 this year.

— Fresno (-2.5) won 38-14 at UCLA three years ago.
— Bulldogs won last three series games.

**Udog** · 09-16-2021, 09:56 PM

NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 3

**Udog** · 09-17-2021, 09:26 PM

College Football Week 3 Money Moves
Micah Roberts

We’ve got a few big games in college football’s week 3 action that will surely get the bettors clinging to a side whether it’s Alabama at Florida, Auburn at Penn State, or early bettors taking Tulsa on a 6.5 point ride betting against Ohio State.

“We’re expecting great handle again this week,” said Las Vegas SuperBook manager Randy Blum. “These bettors were a little apprehensive in the first week, but they came strong last week, and we’re seeing similar trends this week.”

Surprisingly, only because I remember decades of games between Nebraska and Oklahoma always being the game of the year, their 87th meeting Saturday hasn’t drawn any interest as the Sooners have been -22 all week at most books.

Station Casinos sportsbook VP Jason Mccormick said their sharpest plays this week have been on Colorado, North Texas (+14 vs. UAB), and Kansas State (+3 vs. Nevada) which all happened after Circa Sports let bettors punch away at early numbers for low limits when opening Sunday at 11 am PT.

Circa opened Minnesota -3 and were pick ‘em by the end of the day. Colorado has been bet up almost everywhere to the 3-point favorite. The Gophers lost star senior RB Mohamed Ibrahim two weeks ago due to a leg injury against Ohio State, but the uncertainty here appears to be what to make of the Buffaloes performance last week in a 10-7 loss against Texas A&M who played with a backup QB for most of the game.

The Kansas State sharp wagers are just a matter of the books and the bettors disagreeing on how much of a difference there is between starting QB Skylar Thompson being out Saturday against Nevada with a leg injury and backup sophomore Will Howard who had lots of snaps last season. Las Vegas oddsmaker Kenny White says the difference is worth 4.5-point down from Thompson.

The Las Vegas SuperBook has only seen a few sharps make wagers through Thursday afternoon.

“We don’t have a lot of sharp bets in yet, but we did see significant play on Coastal Carolina (at Buffalo) forcing us to move from -11 to -14,” said Blum. “We also saw action on Stanford (at Vanderbilt) that moved us from -10.5 to -12. Eastern Michigan (at U-Mass) moves from -18 to -22, but that was more of a market move for us.”

Then there’s the cautionary move with the market’s number even though no action has forced it. The air move when questions persist about a key player’s health. Keep the book safe, while also giving out a few extra points on the other side for those that want it.

“We moved Utah from -7 to -9, but it was just a precautionary move based on public perception seeing that San Diego State’s quarterback was questionable or didn’t practice,” Blum said. “We didn’t take any action on it either way.”

Aztecs QB Jordan Brookshire didn’t practice Monday and Tuesday and if he doesn’t start Saturday at home (Carson, CA), sixth-year senior backup QB Lucas Johnson will get the start. Johnson appeared to be the front runner for the starting job coming out of spring. There’s really not a dropoff between the two. Most books are still sitting with Utah -9. If it’s announced Brookshire is indeed out, expect another short rise in the number.

But it’s the big games driving the traffic to the books this week. Penn State has won and covered six straight since last season and Auburn has averaged 61 ppg in their first two games.

“Our largest handled game of the week so far is Auburn at Penn State and it’s had great two-way action so far,” Blum said. “We opened Penn State -7 but moved fast downward. Most of all the action on both sides is just the general public.”

Just an FYI on the Penn State game: It starts at 7:30 pm ET and every attending Beaver Stadium has been notified to wear white for the white-out under the lights. Sounds intimidating. Ask yourself why this total has dropped from 53.5 down to 50 when one of the teams has averaged 61 points in two games.

We saw Florida give Alabama a scare in the SEC Championship game last season. The Tide still won, 52-46, but the +16 on a neutral field had Florida bettors cheering with no sweat. Florida’s QB from last season is gone, but so is Alabama’s.

“Alabama at Florida doesn’t have any sharp play yet but we’re seeing good two way action,” Blum said. “I think they (sharps) have a side they like but want to wait until their desired number finally shows before they bet.”

It’s interesting to note that two of the three new QBs at elite programs have already lost with CJ Stroud at Ohio State and DJ Uiagalelei at Clemson. Alabama’s Bryce Young is going to get his first SEC road test at Gainesville. It’s a big step but most bettors are taking a side based on how he does in that spicey environment.

Atlantis Reno sportsbook director Marc Nelson said his top public plays for Saturday are Cincinnati (-3.5 at Indiana), Iowa (-22 vs Kent State), and Alabama. McCormick at Stations has two of those three with Marshall (-10 vs. ECU) instead of Iowa.

Lots of total movement this week but Blum recalled one of his sharp bettors seeking out one game.

“We had sharp money bet a total hard,” Blum said. “They bet the over in Utah State at Air Force pushing us from 50.5 to 54.”

Here’s a look at some of Circa Sports biggest Week 3 moves:

Liberty from -23 to -29 to -27.5 vs. Old Dominion
Arkansas -18 to -23.5 vs. Georgia Southern
Colorado +3 to -3 vs. Minnesota
U-Mass +21 to +17 vs. Eastern Michigan
UTSA -9 to -13 vs. Middle Tennessee State
Tulsa +31 to +24.5 at Ohio State
Baylor -14 to -17.5 at Kansas
San Jose State -3 to -6.5 at Hawaii
Texas A&M -25 to -30 vs. New Mexico
Michigan -24 to -26.5 vs. Northern Illinois

**Udog** · 09-18-2021, 12:50 PM

NCAAF
Weather Report

Saturday, September 18

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Announcement

NCAAF Trends and Indexes - Week 3 (Thur., Sept. 16 - Sat., Sept. 18)

NCAAF Trends and Indexes - Week 3 (Thur., Sept. 16 - Sat., Sept. 18)

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