NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 2 (Thur., Sep. 16 - Mon., Sep. 20)

[Udog]

NFL Trends and Indexes

Thursday, September 16 - Monday, September 20

Additional trends and information will be added as available.

NOTE:
As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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[Udog]

Betting Recap - Week 1
Joe Williams

Overall Notes



The largest underdogs to win straight up

Steelers +6.5 (ML +240) at Bills, 23-16
Dolphins +3.5 (ML +165) at Patriots, 17-16
Saints +3.5 (ML +165) vs. Packers, 38-3
Bengals +3 (ML +135) vs. Vikings, 27-24 (OT)
Eagles +3 (ML +150) at Falcons, 32-6
Texans +3 (ML +150) vs. Jaguars, 37-21
Cardinals +3 (ML +130) at Titans, 38-13

The largest favorites to cover

Rams (-9) vs. Bears, 34-14
Panthers (-3.5) vs. Jets, 19-14
Broncos (-3) at Giants, 27-13
Seahawks (-3) at Colts, 28-16

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week

If you were holding a Patriots (-3.5) ticket, or to a lesser extent, a Patriots money line ticket, things were looking up. With less than four minutes to go, the Patriots were driving. Rookie QB Mac Jones the opportunity to engineer a game-winning drive in his first NFL start. A field goal would have given the Pats the lead, but a touchdown would've meant they were covering for the first time all day. But it wasn't meant to be.

Dwayne Harris popped out to the right, but put the ball on the ground inside the Miami 10-yard line. DB Xavien Howard pounded on top of the ball, spoiling Harris' fourth-career 100-yard rushing performance. More importantly, bettors were handed a tough loss, almost like losing twice.

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week - Part II

UNDER bettors (47.5) in the Minnesota Vikings-Cincinnati Bengals game were feeling pretty good after a scoreless first quarter. However, the pace picked up dramatically in the second and third quarters with 35 total points. We had 45 on the board until the last tick in regulation, when Vikings PK Greg Joseph lined up for a career-high 53-yard field goal attempt.

He booted it through the uprights with no time left, giving the Vikings (-3) bettors a little hope. At the same time, 48 total points officially splashed cold water on the Under. Vikings bettors still had a shot at a touchdown for a cover, or a push, but the Minnesota offense continually bogged down. A fumble by RB Dalvin Cook inside the Cincinnati 40-yard line meant those hopes were dashed, but a push was still in play. But with no time left on the clock in the extra session, rookie PK Evan McPherson split the uprights from 33 yards out to give the Bengals the outright win.

The Vikings-Bengals game was the only one which required an extra session. It was also one of seven games in Week 1 decided by one score.

Total Recall

The lowest total on the board for Week 1 was the Denver Broncos-New York Giants (41.5) game. The books were on the mark, as we had a scoreless first quarter and a total of just 24 points on the board through 45 minutes heading to the fourth quarter. It was actually one of three games in Week 1 to have a scoreless first quarter, as the New York Jets-Carolina Panthers (44.5) game, and the Vikings-Bengals, had a similar slow start. Only the game in Cincinnati ended up going OVER.

The highest total in the Week 1 slate was the AFC showdown between the Cleveland Browns-Kansas City Chiefs (54.5). It did not disappoint, either. We got off on a bit of a slow start with just 11 points in the first quarter, putting the total on pace for an UNDER. Cleveland held a 22-10 lead at the half, however, picking things up dramatically.

In the second half, it was all Kansas City, as the home side outscored Cleveland by a 23-7 count. As such, the OVER ended up easily cashing.

The second-highest game on the board was the Arizona Cardinals-Tennessee Titans (54) game, and the visitors did their part. They ended up throwing up 38 points on the board, but the Titans, and their retooled offense with newcomer WR Julio Jones, were disappointing. Tennessee managed just 13 points to lay a fat egg, and help keep the total UNDER.

As far as primetime games were concerned, things got off to a high-scoring start. Dallas Cowboys-Tampa Bay Buccaneers (52.5) saw a total of 60 points for the OVER. In the Sunday Night Football game, the Chicago Bears-Los Angeles Rams (46) game inched across the finish line with an OVER, too, but it was a sweat shop.

For the regular season the OVER is 2-0 (100.0%) across 2 primetime games, with the Baltimore Ravens-Las Vegas Raiders game on Monday still pending. In 2020, the UNDER was 28-19-1 (59.5%) in 48 primetime contests. In 2019, the UNDER went 31-17-1 (64.6%) during primetime games.

Looking Ahead to Week 2

New York Giants at Washington Football Team (Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET)

The Giants didn't come close to covering the spread at home in Week 1 against the Broncos, while WFT came up on the short end of the stick in a 20-16 score as two-point favorites.

The G-Men didn't have a lot of success in 2020, but they did manage to sweep the NFC East Division champs from Washington, including a 23-20 victory in Week 9 as three-point underdogs. The UNDER cashed in each game, with New York averaging 21.5 PPG in the two meetings, and Washington averaging 19.5 PPG.

In 2019, New York also swept Washington, including a thrilling 41-35 overtime win in Week 16 on Dec. 22, 2019. The Giants have won five straight in this series, and three straight in D.C. dating back to Nov. 23, 2017.

New England Patriots at New York Jets (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

The Patriots came up short at home against the division-rival Dolphins, and now the rookie Jones will make his first start on the road. The Jets ended up losing to old friend QB Sam Darnold and the Carolina Panthers in Charlotte, missing out on the cover as the UNDER connected.

These teams last met Jan. 3, 2021 in Week 17, with the Patriots winning 28-14 with the OVER (41) just coming in. The Jets narrowly missed in Week 9, too, covering as 9-point underdogs in a 30-27 loss as the OVER also connected. In fact, the OVER is 3-1 across the past four meetings in this series.

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

Tom Brady and the Bucs face the NFC East champs in D.C. in a 5-4 game. Despite the lower seed the Buccaneers opened as a touchdown favorite, one of just two road favorites in the wild-card round. Washington ended the regular season 1-2 SU in their final three, and 0-2 ATS in the final two, while the 'under' cashed in five straight to close out the season.

The Bucs tossed up 91 total points in the final two weekends, as their offense is on fire. They won four in a row, and went 4-1 ATS down the stretch in the final five. Tampa Bay has also scored 24 or more points in each of the past seven, although the 'under' is still 3-2 in the past five. Watch WR Mike Evans and his status, as he hyperextended a left knee in the finale. An MRI showed no structural or ligament damage, which is good, but he is still a question mark.

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

The Saints, displaced by Hurricane Ida, were forced to move its game from New Orleans after damage to the city. They were given a choice, and selected a Florida location based upon the struggles of the Packers in the Sunshine State. They chose wisely. New Orleans thrashed Green Bay 38-3 to easily cover as 4-point 'dogs as the UNDER (48.5) connected.

The Panthers, as mentioned above, topped Darnold's old team, the Jets, at BoA in Charlotte by a 19-14 count as the UNDER hit.

These teams met in Week 17, with New Orleans winning 33-7 in Charlotte as the UNDER connected. Of course, a lot of the recent history is a little on the meaningless side since QB Drew Brees has retired, and a lot of the recent history involves QB Cam Newton for the Panthers. He isn't even on an NFL roster at the moment.

For what it's worth, though, the Saints have won four straight trips to Charlotte, going 3-1 ATS. The three covers were all victories by 21 or more points, too.

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

The defending champion Bucs escaped on Thursday night with a 31-29 victory against the Dallas Cowboys as the OVER cashed and the visitors covered. The Falcons also faced an NFC East foe, falling 32-6 at home to the Philadelphia Eagles.

The Buccaneers won in Week 17 by a 44-27 count as 7.5-point favorites on Jan. 3, 2021 as the OVER (51.5) cashed. The teams met just two weeks prior at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, and the Bucs escaped with a 31-27 win as the OVER (49.5) also hit.

When these teams meet, points are sure to follow. We have had six straight OVER results in this series, including each of the past three meetings in Tampa, since an UNDER on Dec. 18, 2017.

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET)

The Lions were getting buried, but they made a valiant comeback against the 49ers at Ford Field. San Francisco ended up winning 41-33, but the Lions grabbed a cover. The OVER (46) easily cashed in the highest scoring game of the weekend.

The Packers managed just a field goal, falling 38-3 in Jacksonville against the Saints as the UNDER held on. QB Aaron Rodgers looked frustrated all day, and he was yanked early in the fourth quarter as rookie Jordan Love mopped up.

Green Bay won 31-24 in Week 14 at Ford Field, but the Lions grabbed a cover. The UNDER (55.5) came in at most shops, too, ever so narrowly. The Pack won 42-21 at home in Week 2 as 7-point favorites, too, as the OVER (51) hit. Green Bay has won four straight in the series, but Detroit is 3-1 ATS across the past four meetings.

 

[Udog]

Hot and Not Report - Week 2
Matt Blunt

It's looking like it could be a mixed bag of results from last week's Hot and Not piece, as Baltimore needs a win on MNF to just get a 2-2 SU split on that 24-6-1 SU run playoff teams had vs non-playoff teams in Week 1. An 'under' also cashing on MNF would put the 'unders' in games featuring AFC playoff teams at 4-1 pushing that to a 4-15 O/U run the past few years and something to keep in mind next season.

Hopefully we can find a week were both findings can hit at a nice pace, and with this week's TNF combatants – New York Giants and Washington – already starting out 0-1 SU and ATS, it didn't take long for the memory bank to pull up this piece from Week 8 a year ago.

For consistency sake we will keep that to the latter half of this piece as the rest of the year (skipping the Ravens debacle missing TNF with games on every other day of the week) didn't bring as much success but didn't do anything to persuade against it either.

Instead, we will start with a perfect 8-0 SU and ATS run that goes all the way back to the 2012 season. My apologies Lions fans.

Who's Hot

Fading NFL teams that scored 30+ points and LOST SU in Week 1 you are 7-1 SU and 8-0 ATS since 2012

Call this the “shoot your shot and miss” theory if you'd like, but NFL teams that have things clicking at least offensively to open a season (scoring 30+) but end up with a loss, generally need at least a week to find “it” again.

The New Orleans Saints organization has been the most frequent member of this club having been involved in Week 1 losses where they scored 30+ in 2012, 2014, 2016, and 2018. The 2018 team accounted for the only outright win in this group (21-18 over Cleveland), but the -9.5 points the Saints were laying that day never was threatened. The 2016 team lost 16-13 to Tennessee as -3.5 favorites, while 26-24 and 35-27 losses to Cleveland and Carolina in 2014 and 2012 respectively saw the Saints lose outright as favorites both times.

You can't completely hate on the Saints though, as New Orleans was the last franchise to buck this trend when they beat Chicago 30-13 in 2011 after scoring 34 in a Week 1 loss. Last year, we saw the Vikings and Panthers each lose again in Week 2 after scoring 30+ in their opener, and each of them lost their Week 2 game by at least 14 points.

None of that is good news for the Detroit Lions (+10.5 @ Green Bay) in Week 2, as their heroic efforts to try get a backdoor cover like HC Dan Campbell had boosters to impress puts the Lions in this dreaded “shoot your shot” role this week. Visiting an angry and destined to look exponentially better QB Aaron Rodgers at home on top of it. We also can't forget about the fact that this will also be rookie HC Dan Campbell's first road game as the boss, something we saw go 2-2 SU in Week 1 (NYJ/JAX with losses, LAC/PHI with wins), but is still 33-53 SU since 2002.

The Lions will be the biggest underdog of any of the former teams in this Week 1 loss 30+ role which could put a damper on that perfect ATS run, but last year's Carolina team at +7.5 vs Tampa were the biggest underdogs previously and that game was 21-0 for Tampa Bay at halftime (31-17 win).

Rodgers and the Packers are going to be the topic of a lot of negative sentiment this week in the news cycle, and if it starts bleeding into this line moving Detroit's way, it's going to be impossible to leave the Packers alone. Green Bay on MNF is usually about as popular as it gets, but it will be tougher to reach that stage after what Green Bay showed in Week 1 and it discussed every day until their next game is played.

But Rodgers off an awful loss is something I'm only going to want to back, and with it being the Lions on the other side with a rookie HC making his road debut, Detroit already projected as a bad team, and the Lions in a post-Week 1 role that no NFL franchise has covered any point spread in for nine seasons?

Sign me up for the Packers this week.

Who's Not

Backing teams before playing a TNF game was 7-15 SU and 7-14-1 ATS overall last season. It was 2-12 SU and 3-10-1 ATS through Week 9 of 2020. It is 0-2 SU and ATS so far in 2021.

With a loss by Washington already in the books early on the Week 1 Sunday slate, and the Giants falling further and further behind in their game against Denver in the afternoon, this run in recent years of fading teams before a TNF appearance quickly came to mind.

The overall 7-15 SU and 7-14-1 ATS record for franchises the week prior to playing a TNF game last year (ignored all Thanksgiving Day games with Dallas/Detroit and the scheduled Baltimore/Dallas TNF game last year) didn't finish strong in the slightest given how good this idea worked early in the year, and if you were to think about possible reasons why that would have been the case, maybe this is a betting angle we only look to do for the first 10 weeks or so going forward.

Thinking of possible reasons why that would be the case does lead to thoughts of teams/players still looking to establish their “normal” weekly routines for the season early on, and throwing in one of these short week TNF games does throw a big wrench into that concept. Guys may be spending that previous week simultaneously digesting info on two different teams (their Sunday opponent and then the TNF opponent) and that could be somewhat behind it as well. This week it calls on fading the Carolina Panthers and Houston Texans before their Week 3 TNF date.

Veteran quarterback Tyrod Taylor helped lead his Houston Texans to a Week 1 upset over the Jacksonville Jaguars. (AP)

Who knows, maybe it's one of those things that is just completely random in the NFL and doesn't need reasoning to explain why it continues to work. Some of these scenarios brought up in these weekly pieces will be like that and they'll be cast aside as “worthless” by many because of how random they seem to be. That's all well and good, I completely get that.

But if you believe in the common assumption/belief/fact in the sports betting world that more than 90% of bettors (or let's say “heavy majority if actual %'s can't be agreed upon) lose in this racket long term, let me ask you this - especially when you consider that 95-99% of the content in the sports betting industry is so heavy in player-based analysis (injury reports, advanced stats, what players did earlier in the season etc).

How long does it take for someone to possibly consider that those two things are more directly correlated than anyone wants to reasonably believe, and that doing one (breaking down games with player/injury analysis) could be the leading factor behind the other? (90% of bettors losing long term).





 

[Udog]

Tech Trends - Week 2
Bruce Marshall








 

[Udog]

WASHINGTON is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) after a loss in the last 3 seasons.

NEW ORLEANS are 6-0 ATS (6 Units) after a win by 14 or more pts. in the last 2 seasons.

HOUSTON is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) in road games after an upset win since 1992.

CHICAGO is 9-23 ATS (-16.3 Units) after allowing 7 or more yards/play in their previous game since 1992.

LAS VEGAS are 5-24 ATS (-21.4 Units) after a home upset win since 1992.

MIAMI is 10-2 ATS (7.8 Units) with <=6 days rest in the last 2 seasons.

LA RAMS are 102-131 ATS (-42.1 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.

JACKSONVILLE is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after being outrushed by 75 or more yards last game in the last 3 seasons.

NEW ENGLAND is 37-17 ATS (18.3 Units) in road games after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game since 1992.

ARIZONA is 3-15 ATS (-13.5 Units) in home games after outgaining opp by 150 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992.

ATLANTA is 38-18 ATS (18.2 Units) in road games after allowing 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game since 1992.

SEATTLE is 51-28 ATS (20.2 Units) after gaining 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game since 1992.

LA CHARGERS are 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) after a dominating performance - 34+ minutes TOP, 24+ First downs in the last 3 seasons.

KANSAS CITY is 34-17 ATS (15.3 Units) in road games after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992.

DETROIT is 25-47 ATS (-26.7 Units) in road games after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored since 1992.





 

[Udog]

NFL

Week 2

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Trend Report
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NY Giants @ Washington
NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Giants's last 5 games
NY Giants is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Washington
Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Washington's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games at home

Cincinnati @ Chicago
Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Cincinnati is 7-17-1 SU in its last 25 games
Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Chicago's last 19 games at home

Buffalo @ Miami
Buffalo
Buffalo is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Miami
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing Miami
Miami
Miami is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games when playing Buffalo

Houston @ Cleveland
Houston
Houston is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Houston's last 10 games when playing Cleveland
Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Cleveland's last 10 games when playing Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games when playing at home against Houston

New England @ NY Jets
New England
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing NY Jets
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Jets
NY Jets
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Jets's last 5 games when playing at home against New England
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Jets's last 5 games

Denver @ Jacksonville
Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games when playing on the road against Jacksonville
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games on the road
Jacksonville
Jacksonville is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games when playing at home against Denver

San Francisco @ Philadelphia
San Francisco
San Francisco is 13-5 SU in its last 18 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing San Francisco
Philadelphia is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home

LA Rams @ Indianapolis
LA Rams
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Rams's last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Rams's last 5 games on the road
Indianapolis
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 5 games when playing LA Rams
Indianapolis is 17-6 SU in its last 23 games at home

Las Vegas @ Pittsburgh
Las Vegas
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Las Vegas's last 5 games
Las Vegas is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games
Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Las Vegas

New Orleans @ Carolina
New Orleans
New Orleans is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing Carolina
New Orleans is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games on the road
Carolina
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games

Minnesota @ Arizona
Minnesota
Minnesota is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games
Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona's last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games

Atlanta @ Tampa Bay
Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing Atlanta
Tampa Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

Tennessee @ Seattle
Tennessee
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tennessee's last 5 games when playing on the road against Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tennessee's last 7 games on the road
Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing at home against Tennessee
Seattle is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Tennessee

Dallas @ LA Chargers
Dallas
Dallas is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Dallas's last 8 games
LA Chargers
LA Chargers is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
LA Chargers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

Kansas City @ Baltimore
Kansas City
Kansas City is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games on the road
Kansas City is 22-3 SU in its last 25 games
Baltimore
Baltimore is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
Baltimore is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games

Detroit @ Green Bay
Detroit
Detroit is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing Green Bay
Green Bay
Green Bay is 22-3 SU in its last 25 games when playing at home against Detroit
Green Bay is 14-2 SU in its last 16 games at home


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[Udog]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 2





 

[Udog]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-up

Week 2

Thursday game
NY Giants (0-1) @ Washington (0-1)
— Giants ran ball for 60 yards; they were outgained 420-314 by Denver.
— On three drives to red zone, Giants scored only 3 points.
— Last four years, Giants are 20-7 ATS as road underdogs.
— Giants are 3-7-1 ATS in last 11 road openers.
— Last three years, Giants are 7-2 ATS in NFC East road tilts.
— Under is 4-1 in their last five road openers.

— QB Fitzpatrick got hurt; Heinicke (11-15/122 LW) gets his 2nd NFL start.
— Chargers outgained Washington 424-259 last week.
— Chargers converted 14-19 on 3rd down against them LW.
— Last five years, Washington is 5-10 ATS in NFC East home games.
— Last 3+ years, Washington is 3-6 ATS as a home favorite.
— Under is 7-2 in their last nine home games.

— Giants won last five series games, last three by 3 or less points, or in OT.
— Giants won last three visits here, by 24-6-3 points.
— Favorites are 5-2 ATS in last seven series games.


 

[Udog]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-up

Week 2

Sunday games
New Orleans (1-0) @ Carolina (1-0)
— Saints pasted Green Bay 38-3 LW; Winston threw 5 TD passes.
— Saints are 18-6 ATS in last 24 games on natural grass.
— Last 3 years, New Orleans is 8-1 ATS in NFC South road games.
— Saints are 2-9 ATS in last 11 road openers.
— Saints had five assistant coaches test positive for COVID this week.
— Last 5 years, New Orleans is 16-6 ATS as a road favorite.

— Panthers held Jets to 45 yards rushing, beat them 19-14 LW.
— Panthers outgained Jets 381-252, led 16-0 at halftime.
— Darnold threw for 279 yards in his Carolina debut.
— Last two years, Carolina is 0-6 ATS at home vs NFC South rivals.
— Last 4+ years, over is 20-13 in Panther home games.
— Last 2 years, Carolina is 1-5-1 ATS as a home underdog.

— Saints won eight of last nine series games.
— New Orleans won last four visits to Charlotte by average of 30-10.
— Underdogs are 5-2 ATS last seven series games.

Houston (1-0) @ Cleveland (0-1)
— Texans ran ball for 160 yards, beat Jaguars 37-21 LW.
— Houston converted 12-21 on third down, were +3 in turnovers.
— Last three years, Texans are 9-6 ATS as road underdogs.
— Texans covered three of last four road openers.
— Over last decade, Houston is 2-3 ATS as double digit underdogs.
— Under is 7-3 in their last ten road openers.

— Browns blew 22-10 lead, lost 32-29 at Kansas City LW.
— Browns ran for 153 yards, were -2 in turnovers, only 2-7 on 3rd down.
— Cleveland is 0-7 ATS as a favorite in their home opener.
— Browns are 11-15-1 ATS in last 27 games as home favorite.
— Browns were double digit favorite once in last 10 years (W41-24, -10.5)
— Over is 5-2 in their last seven home openers.

— Houston won five of last six series games.
— Browns (-4) beat Texans 10-7 LY; both TD’s were in 4th quarter.
— Texans lost three of five visits to Cleveland.

Cincinnati (1-0) @ Chicago (0-1)
— Cincinnati edged Minnesota 27-24 in OT last week.
— Bengals converted only 3-14 on third down vs Vikings.
— Last 20 years; Bengals are 7-2 ATS in Week 2 if they won in Week 1.
— Bengals are 8-13 ATS last 21 games vs NFC opponents.
— Bengals covered six of last seven road openers.
— Over is 10-2 in their last dozen road openers.

— Chicago (+7.5) lost 34-14 in Los Angeles LW.
— Bears are 2-4 ATS last six road openers.
— Last four years, Chicago is 5-8 ATS as home favorite.
— Bears are 2-5 ATS in last seven home openers.
— Under is 5-1-1 in their last seven home openers.
— Dalton started 133 games for Bengals (70-61-2, 2011-19)

— Bears won last two series games, but are 5-6 overall vs Cincy.
— Bengals won four of six visits to Chicago.

Las Vegas (1-0) @ Pittsburgh (1-0)
— Tough scheduling spot for Raiders, after Monday nite home game.
— Las Vegas threw for 409 yards in their OT win Monday.
— Last two years, Raiders are 7-4 ATS as road underdogs.
— Las Vegas is 6-1-1 ATS in last eight road openers.
— Raiders converted 7-15 on 3rd down Monday, Ravens only 3-12.
— Over was 6-2 in Raider road games LY.

— Steelers won opener 23-16 in Buffalo; they were down 10-0 at half.
— Steelers blocked punt for a TD last week.
— Pitt converted only 4-12 on third down, Buffalo 8-18.
— Last 8 years, Pittsburgh is 28-23 ATS as home favorites.
— Pittsburgh is 10-6 ATS last 16 home openers (0-3 last three)
— Under is 8-4 in their last 12 home openers.

— Raiders won five of last seven series games; teams last met in ’18.
— Raiders lost 35-3/38-35 in last two visits here; their last win here was in ’09.

Buffalo (0-1) @ Miami (1-0)
— Bills lost opener 23-16 to Steelers LW; they led 10-0 at half.
— Buffalo outgained Steelers 371-252, but had punt blocked for TD.
— Last 3 years, Bills are 5-3 ATS as road favorite.
— Buffalo is 11-8 ATS in last 19 road openers.
— McDermott is 17-12-1 ATS as a favorite.
— Over was 5-1-2 in Buffalo road games LY.

— Miami won opener 17-16 at New England last week.
— Dolphins were outgained 393-259 in Foxboro LW.
— Last five years, Miami is 14-8-1 ATS as a home underdog.
— Tagovailoa is 7-3 SU as Miami’s starting QB.
— Dolphins are 6-3 ATS in last nine home openers.
— Over is 11-1 in their last dozen home openers.

— Buffalo won last five series games, four of them by 10+ points.
— Bills waxed Miami 56-26 in Week 17 LY.
— Buffalo won four of last six visits to South Beach.

LA Rams (1-0) @ Indianapolis (0-1)
— Rams won opener 34-14; Stafford threw for 321 yards, 3 TD’s.
— Rams averaged 11.6 yards/pass attempt last week.
— Under McVay, Rams are 4-0 SU in road openers (3-1 ATS).
— Last four years, Rams are 8-8 ATS vs AFC opponents.
— Under McVay, LA is 13-10 ATS as road favorites.
— Over is 6-4 in last ten road openers.

— Colts lost 28-16 at home to Seattle LW.
— Seahawks averaged 9.3 yards/pass attempt.
— Last 5+ years, Indy is 3-6 ATS as a home underdog.
— Wentz is 35-34-1 as an NFL starter.
— Colts are 17-7-1 ATS last 25 games vs NFC opponents.
— Under is 19-14 in their last 33 home games.

— Rams won last two series games, 38-8/46-9.
— Rams split four visits to Indianapolis.
— McVay’s first game as Rams’ coach was 46-9 win over Indy in 2017.

San Francisco (1-0) @ Philadelphia (1-0)
— 49ers won opener 41-33 at Detroit; they led 38-10 at one point.
— 49ers averaged 11.5 yards/pass attempt LW, were minus-2 in turnovers.
— Niners are 5-4 ATS last nine games as road favorite.
— 49ers had eight plays of 20+ yards LW, tied for most in NFL
— Last 4+ years, over is 18-15 in 49er road games.
— 49ers stayed east this week, at Greenbrier Resort in West Virginia.

— Eagles won opener 32-6 in Atlanta, running ball for 173 yards.
— Eagles outgained Falcons 434-260, held Atlanta to 3.6 yards/pass attempt.
— Philly is only NFL team that hasn’t allowed a play of 20+ yards.
— Last 5 years, Eagles are 8-4 ATS as home underdogs.
— Philly won four of last five home openers.
— Last five years, under is 28-12 in Eagle home games.

— Eagles won seven of last nine series games.
— Philly (+9) won 25-20 @ San Francisco LY.
— 49ers lost three of last four visits to Philadelphia.

Denver (1-0) @ Jacksonville (0-1)
— Denver (-3) won its opener 27-13 at the Giants LW.
— Denver ran for 165 yards, outgained Giants 420-314.
— Last six times they won their opener, Denver also won in Week 2.
— Bridegwater is now 27-24 as an NFL starting QB.
— Last 4 years, Broncos are 4-6 ATS as road favorites.
— Last 3+ years, under is 16-9 in Denver road games.

— Jaguars (-3) were minus-3 in turnovers, lost 37-21 in Houston LW.
— Texans converted 12-21 on 3rd down, outgained Jaguars 449-395.
— Last two years, Jacksonville is 5-7 ATS as home underdogs.
— Jaguars covered their last four home openers (2-2 SU)
— Rookie QB Lawrence threw for 332 yards in his NFL debut.
— Under is 11-6 in their last 17 home openers.

— Jaguars are 7-6 overall vs Denver.
— Home teams lost five of last seven series games.
— Broncos lost three of last five visits to Jacksonville.

New England (0-1) @ NJ Jets (0-1)
— Patriots (-3) lost opener 17-16 at home to Miami LW.
— Patriots outgained Dolphins 393-259, scored 13 points on four red zone drives.
— Last three years, Patriots are 8-10 ATS as road favorites.
— New England won/covered four of last five road openers.
— Patriots haven’t been 0-2 since 2001.
— Under 7-2 last nine road openers.

— Jets have new coach, new QB.
— Starting QB is rookie Wilson, from BYU.
— Jets started 0-2 three of last four years.
— Last four years, Gang Green is 14-8-2 ATS as home dogs.
— Jets are 6-2 ATS in last eight home openers.
— Over is 5-2 in their last seven home openers.

— New England won last ten series games.
— Six of their last seven series wins were by 14+ points.
— Patriots won last five visits here (three by 7 or less points)

Minnesota (0-1) @ Arizona (1-0)
— Vikings (-3) lost opener 27-24 in OT at Cincinnati.
— Minnesota threw ball for 336 yards, gave up 149 yards on ground.
— Last four years, Vikings are 0-4 SU/ATS in Week 2.
— Last five years, Minnesota is 8-13 ATS as road underdog.
— Last five years, Vikings are 11-13 ATS on natural grass.
— Over is 10-7 in Minnesota’s last 17 road games.

— Arizona (+3) crushed Tennessee 38-13 in its opener.
— Cardinals outgained Titans 416-251, had 17-yard edge in field position.
— Redbirds scored five TD’s on 11 drives last week.
— Last three years, Arizona is 2-7 ATS as home favorites.
— Cardinals are 1-3-1 ATS in last five home openers
— Under is 7-2 in their last nine home openers.

— Minnesota won five of last six series games.
— Vikings lost last three trips to Arizona; their last win here was in ’97.
— Home side won last seven series games.

Atlanta (0-1) @ Tampa Bay (1-0)
— Falcons got pummeled 32-6 at home last week.
— Eagles outgained them 434-260, running for 173 yards.
— Falcons are only NFL team that hasn’t had a play of 20+ yards.
— Last four years, Atlanta is 8-12 ATS as road underdog.
— Falcons are 4-10 ATS in last 14 road openers.
— Under is 6-2 in Atlanta’s last eight road openers.

— Buccaneers (-9) won opener 31-29 over Dallas last Thursday.
— Tampa Bay threw 50 passes, ran ball only 14 times LW.
— Buccaneers turned ball over four times (-3) LW.
— Three of their four TD drives were less than 60 yards.
— Last 7+ years, Tampa Bay is 7-19-2 ATS as a home favorite.
— Over is 10-6 in their last sixteen home games.

— Tampa Bay won last three series games, by 13-4-17 points.
— Falcons won four of last five visits to Tampa.
— Underdogs are 6-4 ATS last ten series games.

Tennessee (0-1) @ Seattle (1-0)
— Tennessee got spanked 38-13 at home by Arizona LW.
— Titans were outgained 416-251; Henry ran for only 58 yards.
— Last three years, Tennessee is 7-5 ATS as road underdogs.
— Last 6+ years, Titans are 14-10-1 ATS vs NFC opponents.
— Titans are 2-6-1 ATS in last nine road openers.
— Under is 6-3 in last nine road openers.

— Seahawks (-3) won opener 28-16 at Indianapolis.
— Seattle ran for 140 yards, allowed only one play of 20+ yards.
— Seattle is 11-8-2 ATS in last 21 games as home favorites.
— Seahawks are 14-4 ATS in last 18 home openers.
— Seattle is 8-4-1 ATS last 13 games vs AFC teams.
— Under is 16-3-1 in last 20 home openers.

— Seahawks won six of last eight series games.
— Titans lost seven of nine visits to Seattle.
— Last eight series games were decided by 7 or fewer points.

Dallas (0-1) @ LA Chargers (1-0)
— Dallas lost opener 31-29 in Tampa; Prescott threw for 403 yards.
— Cowboys lost despite being +3 in turnovers- they were 9-17 on 3rd down.
— Dallas scored only 12 points on four red zone drives LW.
— Last 4+ years, Cowboys are 6-9-1 ATS as road underdogs.
— Dallas threw 58 passes, ran ball 18 times LW.
— Cowboys have three extra days to prep, playing on Thursday LW.

— Chargers (+1) won opener 20-16 at Washington.
— Bolts converted 14-19 third down plays last week.
— Chargers outgained Washington 424-259, throwing for 334 yards.
— Last three years, Bolts were 3-13-1 ATS as home favorites.
— Chargers are 7-4 ATS last 11 home openers.
— This is Chargers’ first game at SoFi Stadium with fans.

— Chargers won last three series games.
— Dallas won four of its last six visits to San Diego.

Kansas City (1-0) @ Baltimore (0-1)
— Chiefs (-5.5) beat Cleveland 32-29 in their opener.
— Chiefs were outgained 457-397, were +2 in turnovers.
— KC averaged 8.5 yards/pass attempt, Browns 11.5.
— Last six years, Chiefs are 17-11-1 ATS as road favorites.
— KC won last four road openers (3-1 ATS).
— Over 4-2 in their last six road openers.

— Baltimore lost opener 33-27 (OT) in Las Vegas Monday nite.
— Ravens were outgained 491-406; Carr threw for 435 yards.
— Last three years, Ravens are 7-0-1 ATS as a single-digit dog.
— Last five years, Baltimore is 4-1 ATS as home dogs.
— Last three years, Ravens are 5-7-1 ATS coming off a loss.
— Ravens have been 0-2 once since 2006.

— Chiefs won last four series games (average total, 53.5)
— Chiefs won five of last six visits to Baltimore.
— Kansas City scored 32 ppg in last four series games.

Monday game
Detroit (0-1) @ Green Bay (0-1)
— Lions lost opener 41-33 LW, after trailing 38-10.
— 49ers averaged 11.5 yards/pass attempt against them.
— Goff threw for 338 yards in his Detroit debut.
— Last three years, Detroit is 9-8-1 ATS as road underdogs.
— Lions are 2-4 ATS in last six road openers.
— Goff is 0-8 SU (1-7 ATS) with coach other than McVay.

— Green Bay got whacked 38-3 by New Orleans LW.
— Packers ran ball for only 43 yards; they were minus-3 in turnovers.
— Green Bay was one of two teams not to score TD last week.
— Last two years, Packers were 10-6 ATS as home favorites.
— Green Bay is 11-3 ATS in last 14 home openers.
— Under is 3-1 in their last four home openers.

— Packers won last four series games (42-21/31-24 LY)
— Lions split their last six visits to Lambeau Field.
— Goff lost playoff game 32-18 here last year.

[Udog]

Gridiron Angles - Week 2
Vince Akins

Play ON ATS Trend of the Week
Matchup: Denver at Jacksonville (1:00 p.m. ET)

-- The Broncos are 11-0 ATS since November 13, 2005 as a road favorite when they had at least 34 minutes time of possesion last game.

Play AGAINST ATS Trend of the Week
Matchup: Atlanta at Tampa Bay (4:05 p.m. ET)

-- The Buccaneers are 0-10-1 ATS since November 30, 2008 at home coming a win where they committed at least two turnovers.

Over OU Trend of the Week
Matchup: Buffalo at Miami (1:00 p.m. ET)

-- The Dolphins are 15-0 OU since December 2015 when they won by 1-5 points last game and their opponent did not lose by more than 24 points in their last game.

Under OU Trend of the Week
Matchup: Las Vegas at Pittsburgh (1:00 p.m. ET)

-- The Raiders are 0-9 OU since December 13, 2015 on the road coming off a home game where they forced at least 2 turnovers.

Super System of the Week
Matchup: Las Vegas at Pittsburgh (1:00 p.m. ET)

-- Teams that gained at least 500 total yards in week one are 16-4 ATS in Week two. Active on Las Vegas..

Trends are verified using Sports Data Query Language (SDQL)


 

[Udog]

NFL Week 2 Money Moves
Micah Roberts

Overreactions abound throughout the NFL Week 2 card with results from Week 1 still fresh in everyone’s mind and the public is betting as if those results are the gateway to winning this week.

The favorites went 3-13 ATS last week helping the sportsbooks to a large first-week win. Nine of the underdogs won outright. The average Joe has to regroup while sharps and the sportsbooks think they have a good read on their NFL ratings.

Of the 15 games we have between Sunday and Monday, three of them are double-digit favorites, seven are favorites of -6 or higher, and seven of them are hovering around 3, either 2.5, 3, or 3.5. The lone game not represented there is the Chiefs going from -3.5 to -4 at Baltimore for the Sunday Night Football game.

Station Casinos sportsbook director Jason McCormick said his 18 books across the local areas of Las Vegas have seen the most public action on the Rams, Cardinals, and Saints.

South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews gave out the same three teams. This is a combination of ticket counts and parlay money.

The public always seems to derive at the same teams based on what they saw last. After being jilted by their forever loves last week when the Bills, Chiefs, and Packers didn’t cover, they’ve found new loves.

We all want to win and win big which means the most impressive offenses usually get the public attention the next week and it’s amplified after the first week.

The Saints beat the Packers 38-3, the Cardinals won 38-13 at Tennessee, and the Rams won an isolated Sunday night game impressively, 34-14 against the Bears. That’s it, the psychological profile of the average Joe NFL bettor.

What about the popular regulars like the Chiefs and Bills?

“The public is on the Chiefs and Bills, just not as much as those three, but close,” said McCormick.

The public hates the Ravens this week more than the Chiefs so the Chiefs are still in even though they didn’t cover, but did come back to win at home against the Browns last week.

So what about the Packers this week after the Saints exposed Aaron Rodgers for still being in vacation mode?

No one jumped on the Monday night number where the Las Vegas SuperBook opened the Packers -10.5 and are -11 on Friday. Normally always a Packers supporter, I think we’ll see split sentiment from the public finding reason to take the Lions plus-double-digits.

McCormick says the sharpest play they’ve had this week is on the Eagles, Panthers, and Vikings, all three who are facing opponents coming off impressive wins.

The Saints are -3 -120 at the Panthers, the 49ers are -3 EVEN, and the Cardinals are -3.5 against the visiting Vikings

Andrews at the South Point also has sharp play on the Colts who are getting +3.5 from the visiting Rams.

So you can see what’s going on in Week 2. The sharps and public are severely divided on several games.

The Bills have been bet up from -3 at the Westgate to -3 -120 for their game at Miami. Miami comes off a 17-16 win at New England, the Bills just got upset at home after holding the Steelers to no points in the first half. Miami is content, Buffalo is hungry, embarrassed, motivated, and maybe even desperate for a win. Circa Sports has the Bills -3.5 -105 and the South Point is -3.5, flat, as they are with all their football spreads.

The Texans come off an impressive win as a home dog against the Jaguars, 37-21, and the sportsbooks are still making all the Browns fans lay -13 as the Texans visit.

The Bengals have been bet at +3 at Chicago down to +2.5. One team, the Bengals, looked good last week with a thrilling overtime win against the Vikings while the Bears stuck with Andy Dalton and got killed at Los Angeles. As of Friday, no word if Dalton or rookie Justin Fields will start.

How is it that everyone is so smart with the Bears QB decision but head coach Matt Nagy knows better? Is he watching different game film of Dalton from the past two seasons? No arm, can’t run, and can’t make quick decisions is a bad trio for any QB. Dalton has them all, but he’s a veteran so that helps him better the team.

The NFL is a now league and Nagy appears to be ready to sink the ship just to show he’s in charge and knows better. Bigger and better battles to fight than make the stand for Andy Dalton. First coach to be fired?

The big win by the Raiders means nothing this week at Pittsburgh except betting against the team that won an emotional game Monday night has a short week and plays Sunday at a 10 am PT start time. Short week off an emotional high. Steelers are -6 and -6.5 everywhere with the majority of bet tickets written on them.

The Broncos are getting sent flowers again by the public. Last week’s 27-13 win at the Giants impressed many, especially with QB Teddy Bridgewater converting third downs routinely. Everything fell into place. The Broncos have dropped from -6.5 to -6 at Jacksonville even though hardly anyone is taking the Jaguars.

One of the biggest moves of the week is the Patriots going from -3.5 to -6 for their game at the Jets. Bill Belichick off a loss doesn’t sound as scary a prospect for the opponent without Tom Brady as it did in the old days.

The Cardinals have dropped from 4-point home favorites to -3.5 against the Vikings. The main thing I worry about with the Cards is head coach Kliff Kingsbury being so tolerant in his team making the same dumb penalties over and over. There are no repercussions. It will continue and I'll bet they lose at least four games this season because of it happening at crucial moments.

Perhaps the most interesting game of Sunday is the Cowboys at Chargers which has been an evenly bet game although the Chargers went from -3 to -3.5 EVEN at the Superbook. The SuperBook took a sharp wager on the Chargers to push them off 3.

Stay the course my friends in the public. The books owe you one, all the best.


 

[Udog]

NFL
Weather Report

Week 2[/B]




 

[Udog]

Betting Recap - Week 2
Joe Williams

Overall Notes


The largest underdogs to win straight up

Titans +6.5 (ML +235) at Seahawks, 33-30 (OT)
Raiders +5.5 (ML +200) at Steelers, 26-17
Ravens +4 (ML +170) vs. Chiefs, 36-35
Bengals +3 (ML +145) at Chargers, 20-17

The largest favorites to cover

Buccaneers (-13) vs. Falcons, 48-25
Broncos (-6) at Jaguars, 23-13
Patriots (-5.5) at Jets, 25-6
Bills (-3.5) at Dolphins, 35-0

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week

The Sunday Night Football game was everything as advertised. We had a great shootout between the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens (+4, ML +170) at M&T Bank Stadium in Charm City. QB Patrick Mahomes got the visitors off to a great start, tossing three touchdowns in the first three quarters, and the visitors led 35-24 heading to the final 15 minutes. The OVER (53.5) was already in the bag, so total bettors might have shut things off early. Hopefully not, as they missed an exciting finish.

If you were holding a Chiefs ticket, money line or spread, it was not quite as exciting. QB Lamar Jackson rallied the Ravens for 12 points in the final quarter, while the defense allowed nothing to the Chiefs, and Baltimore came back for the 36-35 win.

The Chiefs were driving inside of two minutes in Ravens territory, but RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire coughed up the football, a terrible time for his first ever lost fumble in the NFL. The Chiefs had all three timeouts left, and forced a fourth down, but Jackson converted the short-yardage situation to hold on.

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week - Part II

Backers of the Seattle Seahawks (-6.5) looked like they might be in pretty decent shape, as QB Russell Wilson hit WR Freddie Swain on a 68-yard pass and catch for score, making it 30-16 with 13:06 to go. The good feelings lasted all of 49 seconds, as RB Derrick Henry ripped off a 60-yard touchdown run with 12:17 to pare the lead to 30-23.

That man struck again with just 29 ticks left on the clock in regulation, tying the game at 30-30. The game ended up going to overtime.

Seattle blew the 14-point lead, and then the defense blew the game, as the Titans drove down for the 36-yard field goal from PK Randy Bullock. The Seahawks were 52-0 when holding a lead of 15 or more points at home, but the Titans fixed that, erasing a 24-9 lead at the half.

Total Recall

The lowest total on the board in Week 2 was the Thursday night tilt between the New York Giants-Washington Football Team (41). Things started off slow enough, as New York led 7-0 after 15 minutes. But Washington rallied to take a 14-10 lead at halftime. Things were on pace for OVER bettors, and they got even better. The teams combined for 35 points in the final 30 minutes, and the OVER was never in question.

The lowest total on the board for Sunday was the AFC East battle between the New England Patriots-New York Jets (43), and UNDER bettors cashed with the 25-6 win by the road team. The next lowest total, (44.5), also cashed as the Chicago Bears edged the Cincinnati Bengals 20-17 in a game which saw QB Andy Dalton exit early with an injury.

On the flip side, the late-afternoon window saw the Minnesota Vikings-Arizona Cardinals (50.5), Atlanta Falcons-Tampa Bay Buccaneers (51.5), Titans-Seahawks (54 - see above) and Dallas Cowboys-Los Angeles Chargers (55) games with totals all over 50. All but the Boys-Bolts game delivered high offensive numbers, as the Vikes-Cards had 47 points on the board by halftime, and the OVER was in the bag for the Falcons-Bucs by the end of three. The Cowboys and Chargers surprised with a defensive battle, although it did come down to a last-second field to determine a winner, but the UNDER was never in doubt there.

As far as primetime games, the OVER is a perfect 5-for-5 so far this season after two more high-scoring affairs Thursday and Sunday nights. The Monday night game between the Detroit Lions-Green Bay Packers (48.5) is also expected to see some big totals.

For the regular season the OVER is perfect 5-0 (100.0%) across 5 primetime games, with the MNF game pending. In 2020, the UNDER was 28-19-1 (59.5%) in 48 primetime contests. In 2019, the UNDER went 31-17-1 (64.6%) during primetime games.

Looking Ahead to Week 3

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

The Colts (0-2) and Titans (1-1) square off in the Music City in an important AFC South battle. The Titans are coming off a thrilling road win in Seattle.

Indianapolis has posted a 2-6 ATS mark in the past eight games inside the AFC South, but they are a solid 5-1 ATS in the past six games on the road. Tennessee has managed just a 1-4 ATS mark across the past five at Nissan Stadium. They're also just 5-14 ATS across the past 19 meetings with the Colts, including 1-4 ATS in the past five meetings in Nashville. The road team has also cashed in five straight meetings, with the OVER going 5-1 in the past six battles in Tennessee.

We'll be keeping an eye on QB Carson Wentz, who (surprise!) left Sunday's game with an injury.

Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

The Chargers (1-1) and Chiefs (1-1) will be battling to stay out of the basement in the AFC West, as both the Broncos (2-0) and Raiders (2-0) are unbeaten through two games. Kansas City nearly joined them at the top, but fell late in Baltimore.

The Bolts have cashed in five of the past six games overall, and they're a solid 7-3-1 ATS in the past 11 games on the road. The Chiefs have managed to go just 1-5-1 ATS in the previous seven games inside the division, and they're 2-10 ATS in the past 12 as a favorite, including the SNF loss in Balto.

In this series, the road team is a solid 12-3-1 ATS in the past 16 meetings, and the Chargers are 4-1-1 ATS in the past six visits to Arrowhead, too.

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

The Bengals (1-1) and Steelers (1-1) square off, and it usually doesn't go well for Cinti. They're just 1-4 ATS in the past five trips to the Steel City, and 8-21-1 ATS in the past 30 meetings with the Steelers.

As far as the total, the UNDER is 4-1-1 in the past six meetings between these AFC North rivals, and 5-1-1 in the past seven battles at Heinz Field.

The UNDER is also 3-1-1 in Cincinnati's past five on the road, and 13-4-2 in the past 19 as a road underdog. Pittsburgh, who lost WR Diontae Johnson on the final play of their loss to the Raiders, might need to make adjustments on offense. The UNDER is 4-1-1 in the past six for the Steelers as a home favorite, and 6-2-1 in the past nine overall as a fave.

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET)

The Eagles (1-1) and Cowboys (1-1) wrap up the Week 3 schedule on MNF.

Philly has cashed in just one of the past seven games on the road, although they did win and cover in Atlanta in Week 1 as the UNDER connected. The Eagles are just 1-4 ATS in the past five trips to Jerry World, and 2-5 ATS in the past seven meetings overall. The favorite has hit in eight of the past 11 in this series, with the home team a perfect 5-for-5 against the number in the past five battles.

The Cowboys are just 1-7 ATS in the past eight as a favorite, and 1-5 ATS in the past six inside the division. They're also a dismal 5-11 ATS in the past 16 appearances on Monday night.

As far as the total, the UNDER is 4-0 in the past four MNF games for Philly.


 

[Udog]

Baltimore 36, Kansas City 35:
— Chiefs averaged 8.3 yards/play; only 6 of their 49 plays were on 3rd down.
— KC turned ball over on two of their last three drives.
— Chiefs were outgained by 68 yards/game in first two games.
— Kelce caught 7 passes for 109 yards and a TD.

— Jackson ran 16 times for 107 yards, threw for 239 yards.
— On their last six drives, Ravens scored four TD’s, kicked a FG.
— Last 5+ years, Baltimore is 5-1 ATS as home underdogs.
— Ravens snapped a 4-game skid vs Kansas City.

Arizona 34, Minnesota 33
— Vikings missed 37-yard FG at gun; they also missed a PAT.
— Vikings’ first four drives: 23 plays, 242 yards, 20 points.
— Vikings’ last seven drives: 40 plays, 176 yards, 6 points.
— Minnesota lost first two games by total of four points.

— Arizona scored 72 points in winning its first two games.
— Redbirds scored nine TD’s on 23 drives in two games.
— Murray threw for 400 yards and three TD’s.
— Matt Prater drilled a 62-yard FG for the Cardinals.

Tampa Bay 48, Atlanta 25:
— Falcons gave up 80 points in losing first two games.
— Atlanta has been outscored 44-15 in 2nd half of games.
— Tampa Bay had 13-yard edge in field position.
— Last 4+ years, Atlanta is 8-13 ATS as road underdog.

— Buccaneers won first two games, scoring 79 points.
— Brady threw for 276 yards, five TD’s in this game.
— Three of their five TD drives were less than 50 yards.
— Tampa Bay had two pick-6’s in 4th quarter.

Tennessee 33, Seattle 30, OT
— Tennessee outscored Seahawks 17-0 over final 17:32 of game.
— Henry ran ball for 182 yards, three TD’s.
— Julio Jones caught six passes for 127 yards.
— Last 6+ years, Titans are 15-10-1 ATS vs NFC opponents.

— Seattle lost its first home opener since 2008.
— Seahawks’ last 3 drives in 1st half: 12 plays, 164 yards, 21 points.
— Seahawks rest of game: 24 plays, 150 yards, 6 points.
— Their last nine games vs Titans were decided by 7 or fewer points.

Dallas 20, LA Chargers 17
— Dallas ran ball for 198 yards, averaged 7.0 yards/play.
— Cowboys scored 17 points on three red zone drives.
— Two games this season, Dallas is 15-27 on 3rd down.
— Better balance this week; Cowboys ran ball 31 times, threw 27 passes.

— Chargers’ 7 drives: one TD, four FG’s, two INT’s.
— Bolts scored only 14 points on four red zone drives.
— Herbert threw for 338 yards, also threw two INT’s.
— Last 3+ years, Bolts are 3-14-1 ATS as home favorites.

Las Vegas 26, Pittsburgh 17:
— Raiders outgained Pittsburgh, 425-331.
— Las Vegas kicked FG’s on three of four first half drives.
— Raiders have 782 passing yards in first two games.
— Raiders are 7-1-1 ATS in last nine road openers.

— Steelers have been outscored 19-7 in first half this season.
— Pittsburgh ran ball 14 times for only 39 yards.
— Steelers have been outgained by 106.5 yards/game.
— Under is 9-4 in their last 13 home openers.

San Francisco 17, Philadelphia 11
— 49ers’ first four drives: 20 plays, 49 yards, 3 first downs, 0 points.
— 49ers’ last four drives: 43 plays, 267 yards, 19 first downs, 17 points.
— 49er’s two TD drives were 97-92 yards.
— San Francisco has two road wins despite being minus-2 in turnovers.

— Up 3-0 in 2nd quarter, Eagles were stopped on downs on SF’s 3-yard line.
— Both teams average starting field position; their own 19-yard line.
— Hurts threw for only 190 yards, ran for 82 more.
— Last 5+ years, under is 29-12 in Eagle home games.

Chicago 20, Cincinnati 17:
— Total yardage: 248-206, Bengals.
— Cincy lost despite a 13-yard edge in field position.
— Bengals turned ball over four times (minus-3)
— Bengals are 8-14 ATS last 22 games vs NFC opponents.

— Roquan Smith had a 53-yard pick-6 to put Bears up 17-3.
— Rookie QB Fields was 6-13/60 passing, ran 10 times for 31 yards.
— Dalton got hurt; he started 133 games for Bengals (70-61-2, 2011-19)
— Under is 5-1-1 in Bears’ last seven home openers.

LA Rams 27, Indianapolis 24:
— Rams drove 70 yards in four plays to take lead for good early in 4th quarter.
— Cooper Kupp caught nine passes for 163 yards, two TD’s.
— Rams averaged 11.6 yards/pass attempt last week, 8.7 this week.
— Under McVay, Rams are 5-0 SU in road openers (3-2 ATS).

— Wentz got hurt; backup QB Eason saw first NFL action in final 2:25 of game.
— Indy had two empty trips to red zone in their first three drives.
— Colts got gift TD in 3rd quarter when Rams screwed up snap on a punt.
— Indy starts 0-2 at home; their next three games are on road.

Carolina 26, New Orleans 7:
— Saints’ only TD came on a 18-yard drive early in 4th quarter.
— New Orleans ran only 43 plays for 128 yards.
— Saints had only six first downs, threw for only 80 yards.
— Saints are 2-10 ATS in last 12 road openers.

— Carolina ran 73 plays, converted 8-15 on third down.
— Panthers allowed total of 93 YR in first two games.
— McCaffrey has 59 touches in his first two games.
— Carolina beat Saints for only 2nd time in last 10 meetings.

Cleveland 31, Houston 21:
— QB Taylor got hurt; rookie Mills was 8-18/102 passing.
— Houston’s first three drives: 20 plays, 155 yards, 14 points.
— Houston’s last six drives: 39 plays, 154 yards, 7 points.
— Last 3+ years, Texans are 10-6 ATS as road underdogs.

— Browns were +3 in turnovers, had 12-yard edge in field position.
— Mayfield completed 19-21 passes, for 8.7 yards/attempt.
— Cleveland is 0-8 ATS as a favorite in their home opener.
— Browns are 11-16-1 ATS in last 28 games as home favorite.

Buffalo 35, Miami 0:
— Last two meetings, Bills beat Miami 56-26/35-0.
— Buffalo outscored first two opponents 24-0 in first half.
— Last 3+ years, Bills are 6-3 ATS as road favorite.
— McDermott is 18-12-1 ATS as a favorite.

— Tagovailoa got hurt; Brissett was 24-40/169 passing.
— Miami got to red zone three times, but didn’t score.
— Dolphins were outgained 707-475 in first two games.
— Dolphins have lost six games in row vs Buffalo.

Denver 23, Jacksonville 13:
— Denver opens up 2-0, with pair of road wins.
— Broncos had 11-yard edge in field position.
— Denver outgained Jaguars 398-198.
— Broncos converted only 2-11 third down plays.

— Jaguars have now lost 17 games in a row.
— Rookie QB Lawrence was only 14-33 passing for 118 yards.
— Jaguars’ second TD came on a 102-yard kick return.
— Jaguars are already minus-5 in turnovers this year.

New England 25, NJ Jets 6:
— Patriots had 15-yard edge in field position.
— New England has three TD’s on first 19 drives this year.
— Patriots outgained first two foes 653-495
— Belichick is 21-6 vs rookie QB’s.

— Rookie QB Wilson threw four INTs, three on first four drives.
— Jets started 0-2 four of last five years.
— Jets lost 11 games in row to New England.
— Jets ran ball for 152 yards, but minus-4 in turnovers is no bueno.