NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 1 (Thur., Sept.9 - Mon., Sept. 13)

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NFL Trends and Indexes

Thursday, September 9 - Monday, September 13

Additional trends and information will be added as available.

NOTE:
As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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[Udog]

Hot and Not Report - Week 1
Matt Blunt

After spending the past few weeks outlining some various situations and angles that NFL teams find themselves in Week 1 this year, it doesn't hurt to add more support to some of those ideas by harking back to something I brought up last year at this time and worked rather well through the eight games it applied too in the opening week last year.

So lets touch on sides and totals for a handful of Week 1 games, with the main criteria being games that include playoff teams from a year ago.

Who's Hot

Over the past four years, playoff teams from the previous year are 24-6-1 SU (18-13 ATS) in Week 1 when playing a non-playoff team from a year ago.

Outlined this scenario last year when it was on a 18-4-1 SU run over the previous three years and we had eight different games fit the scenario. Baltimore, New England, Buffalo, Tennessee, Philadelphia, San Francisco, New Orleans, and Seattle were all 2019 playoff participants that opened up the 2020 campaign against a non-playoff team, and on the whole they went 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS (grading the Titans two-point win as an ATS loss after opening at -1 and closing -3).

Similar to last week's idea that “winning begets winning” in this league with undefeated preseason teams starting out the regular season on the right foot, teams that were among the top third in the league last year seem to find a way to keep the good times rolling early on the following season when they are up against a team looking to take that next step and get to a similar level in becoming a playoff-caliber team.

We don't have a list of eight contests to roll with this year despite having an extra two teams from last year's expanded playoff format, as the Week 1 schedule does pit many of those postseason squads against one another this year. But there are four contests that fit the bill this year, and one of them even includes an undefeated preseason team to tie in last week's piece yet again.

Games that apply in 2021:

Tampa Bay (-7.5) vs Dallas
Tennessee (-3) vs Arizona
Washington (+1) vs LA Chargers
Baltimore (-4.5) vs Las Vegas

The Baltimore Ravens are the one team from this year's list that also have that positive role of being an undefeated preseason team going for them, although a two-year wait for a new stadium to be debuted with fans is still a rather unquantifiable scenario that can still bring some questions about how seriously one really wants to trust the Ravens as the only road team as well in this list.

This week's scenario does suggest that a Baltimore ML wager is probably the ideal way to support this trend as opposed to laying the 4.5 points. Even with the unknown of whether or not the Raiders home field advantage could be considered slightly higher than the average NFL team, there is just too much support historically that suggests Baltimore starts the year 1-0 SU. That's where I've ultimately landed on this game too. Washington is another interesting case here, as they are the only underdog of the group, and also the only ones who get to face a rookie HC making his NFL debut, on the road no less.

The first game on the road for rookie HC's sits at 32-51 SU but 49-32-2 ATS as I outlined in that earlier piece, which throws a nice wrench into this game completely given that it's a 1-point spread currently, and it's actually the team with the rookie HC (LAC) that's laying the chalk. Previous debuting coaches have not had much success winning games outright with that 32-51 SU record, but an ATS record that's 17 games over .500 in that same span does douse some of the enthusiasm for making a Washington play here.

But combining a 24-6-1 SU record for Washington as a playoff vs non-playoff team with the 32-51 SU record for rookie HC's playing their first game on the road should probably take precedent here if bettors are so inclined to make this Washington/LA Chargers game a part of their Week 1 card.

Finally, the Tampa Bay/Dallas season opener on Thursday night feels like the ideal scenario where this entire “Hot” trend plays out like it generally has in the past, with the Buccaneers starting out the season 1-0 SU with the ATS result being much more up in the air. That could easily be a nasty hook for Tampa Bay ATS backers with the spread just over a full TD, as a 1-7 point win for Tampa on Thursday is what I'm rather expecting to see there.

Veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick leads Washington as a short underdog against the L.A. Chargers in Week 1. (AP)


Who's Not

Backing 'over's in games that feature AFC playoff teams from the previous season. AFC playoff teams are on a 3-11 O/U run against any opponent in Week 1 the last three seasons.

This was a run that was 1-8 O/U entering the first week of the 2020 season, and of the five games that applied (2019 playoff teams Houston and KC played in Week 1 so the result is counted only once), we still saw an overall 2-3 O/U record be the end result. Houston and KC managed to go 'over' the closing number of 53.5 by the hook, while Buffalo was the other team to cash an 'over' ticket, but did so in a 27-17 win over the Jets with a sub-40 closing total (39). The other three 2019 AFC playoff teams – Baltimore, New England, and Tennessee – all had the 'unders' cash relatively easily.

2021 has that 7 th AFC playoff team to account for, but this situation is still only applicable to five Week 1 games:

Pittsburgh/Buffalo (49)
Arizona/Tennessee (52)
Seattle/Indianapolis (48.5)
Cleveland/Kansas City (53)
Baltimore/Las Vegas (51)

Only having five games apply means that two of them – Pittsburgh/Buffalo and Cleveland/KC – have both sides coming off playoff years and it will be interesting to see how those play out. The Chiefs were in an identical spot last season when they opened up against Houston and the 54 points in the final score only cashed 'over' tickets based on if you had bet that game sometime during the day of the game in all likelihood. Originally that total opened up at 56.5 earlier in the summer and had seen constant support for the 'under' as it kept creeping down to it's eventual closing number of 53.5.

This year the Chiefs get another playoff rematch when they host the Browns, and market sentiment has already shown support for the 'over' and once the majority of recreational bettors get involved closer to kick- off, I'm sure oddsmakers are going to hope that this 'under' run for this scenario continues in a big way. The same can probably be said for the Steelers/Bills game as well.

The other interesting case here that could see an 'under' play fit the contrarian approach is in that Ravens/Raiders game on MNF to close out Week 1.

A single primetime game to close out the opening week is almost always going to bring plenty of support for an 'over' play, and based on how Week 1 has gone for the books/bettors up until that point, we will get plenty of reports on how one-sided action will be on the side and/or total for this game.

Given the two teams on the field, an argument for an 'over' play makes plenty of sense too, but with the total already in the 50's, and the assumption being that oddsmakers are going to likely need an 'under' to cash in Las Vegas, I believe it's probably the best game of the five-game bunch to blindly trust this history.

Baltimore's still going to be a heavy run team (bleeds the clock), and considering the consensus opinion in the markets on QB Derek Carr not exactly being in the top half (or so) of the QB's in the league, it's not like an 'under' argument doesn't make sense either.








 

[Udog]

Tech Trends - Week 1
*Bruce Marshall

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NFL
Dunkel

Week 1




 

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NFL

Week 1

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Trend Report
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[Udog]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 1

Thursday game
Dallas @ Tampa Bay
— Last 4 years, Cowboys are 5-9-1 ATS as road underdogs.
— Dallas lost three of last four road openers SU.
— Cowboys are 10-4 ATS last 14 games as a dog in road openers.
— Last three years, Dallas is 10-14 ATS on the road.
— Under is 6-3 in their last nine road openers.
— Under is 5-2 in their last seven Week 1 games.
— OL Martin (COVID) is out for this game

— Last 18 years, defending Super Bowl champs are 11-4-3 ATS in Week 1 the next year.
— Tampa Bay was 3-2-1 ATS LY as a home favorite.
— Buccaneers won three of last four Week 1 games.
— Bucs won/covered three of last four home openers.
— Tampa scored 27+ points in four of last five home openers.
— Four of their last five Week 1 games went over.

— Dallas won 7 of last 8 series games.
— Cowboys lost 3 of last 5 visits here, scoring 6-0-7 points in losses.
— Favorites are 5-2 ATS in last seven series games.



 

[Udog]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 1

Sunday games
Pittsburgh @ Buffalo
— Steelers opened on road last six years (3-2-1 SU, 2-3-1 ATS)
— Steelers are 10-3 ATS in last 13 games as road underdogs.
— Pittsburgh is 3-1-1 SU last five road openers.
— Pittsburgh is 2-7 ATS last nine games on artificial turf.
— Last two years, under is 10-4-2 in Steeler road games.
— Under is 7-1 in their last eight road openers.

— Bills are 11-6 ATS in last 17 games as home favorites.
— Home team won their last six Week 1 games.
— Bills are 9-5 ATS last 14 home openers.
— Buffalo is 6-2 ATS as a favorite in home openers.
— McDermott is 17-11-1 ATS as a favorite.
— Last five years, over is 25-15 in Buffalo home games.

— Crowd should be mixed for this game; tough day for security guards.
— Bills beat Pittsburgh last two years, after losing previous six meetings.
— Steelers gained only 224 yards, lost 26-15 here LY; Buffalo scored on pick-6.
— Pittsburgh won four of last five visits to Orchard Park.

NJ Jets @ Carolina
— Jets have new coach, new QB.
— Starting QB is rookie Wilson, from BYU.
— Jets started 0-1 four of last five years.
— Last five years, Gang Green is 10-22-2 ATS as road dogs.
— Jets are 11-4 ATS in last 15 road openers.
— Over is 5-2 in their last seven road openers.

— Last 2 years, Panthers lost 30-27/34-30 at home in Week 1.
— Last 5 years, Carolina is 10-16 ATS as a home favorite.
— Panthers are 6-11-1 ATS last in 18 home openers.
— Last six years, Carolina is 15-9 ATS vs AFC teams.
— Last four years, over is 20-12 in Panther home games.
— Under 16-6-1 in their last 23 home openers.

— Darnold played 3 years for the Jets, going 13-25 as their QB.
— Panthers are 3-2 in last five series games, scoring 30+ in all three wins.
— Jets lost 30-20/30-3 in last two visits to Charlotte.

Philadelphia @ Atlanta
— New coach; 2nd-year QB started four games (1-3) LY.
— Eagles won four of last five season openers.
— Last 5 years, Eagles are 12-13 ATS as road underdogs.
— Philly won 5 of last 7 Week 1 games on road.
— Last three years, Eagles are 4-8 ATS vs AFC teams.
— Over 7-4-1 in their last dozen road openers.

— New coach, new GM for Atlanta.
— Last 5 years, Falcons are 15-18 ATS as home favorites.
— Falcons lost four of last five Week 1 games.
— Atlanta is 17-5 ATS in last 22 home openers.
— Since 2004, Falcons are 8-1 ATS as a favorite in HO’s.
— Over is 4-1 in Atlanta’s last five home openers.

— Eagles are 11-5 in last 16 series games.
— Philly lost last three visits here, by 4-2-4 points.
— For what its worth, Matt Ryan is from Philadelphia

Minnesota @ Cincinnati
— Last three years, Vikings are 6-3 ATS as road favorites.
— Minnesota won/covered four of last five Week 1 games.
— Vikings are 0-3-1 SU, 0-4 ATS last four road openers.
— Last seven years, Minnesota is 19-9 ATS vs AFC teams.
— Under 12-5 in their last 17 road openers.
— This is first time in five years Vikings open on road.

— Cincinnati started out 1-0 four of last seven years.
— Bengals are 8-7-1 ATS last 16 games as home dogs.
— Cincy won/covered once in last five home openers.
— Bengals are 3-6-1 ATS as favorite in home openers.
— Under is 9-4 in their last 13 home openers.
— Bengals are 7-13 ATS last 20 games vs NFC opponents.

— Coach Zimmer was Bengals’ DC from 2008-13.
— Home side won last four series games.
— Vikings lost last two visits here, 42-14/37-8.

San Francisco @ Detroit
— Last 2 years, 49ers won road opener 31-17/31-13.
— 49ers won 8 of last 10 season openers.
— Niners are 5-3 ATS last eight games as road favorite.
— Under 6-1 last seven season openers.
— Under 7-4-1 last dozen road openers.
— New defensive coordinator this year for 49ers.

— New coach, new GM, new QB (Goff 44-30 NFL starter).
— Pretty sure Detroit will try hard to run ball a lot.
— 0-2-1 SU last three season openers (favored in all 3)
— Lost four of last six home openers.
— Over 8-3 last 11 home openers.
— Lions’ last ten season openers went over the total.

— 49ers won 8 of last 9 series games.
— Favorites are 4-0-1 ATS in last five series games.
— Niners won 2 of last 3 visits here, losing 32-15 in last visit, in 2015.

Arizona @ Tennessee
— Arizona is 1-3-1 SU in last five Week 1 games.
— Cardinals lost 4 of last 5 road openers SU, but covered 10 of last 13.
— Last 2 years, Arizona is 6-3-1 ATS as road underdogs.
— Last five years, Redbirds are 7-11 as underdogs of 3 or fewer points.
— Last six years, Cardinals are 9-15 ATS vs AFC teams.
— Under 10-5 last 15 road openers.

— Tennessee lost SU last three times they opened season at home.
— Titans are 2-5 SU last seven home openers (2-7 ATS last nine)
— Last five years, Tennessee is 14-11-2 ATS as home favorites.
— Last six years, Titans are 14-9-1 ATS vs NFC opponents.
— Last three years, over is 16-7-1 in Tennessee home games.
— Under is 6-3 in last nine home openers.

— Arizona won three of last four series games.
— Titans lost last meeting 12-7 in desert in 2017.
— Redbirds split last two visits here; Tennessee gained 460-531 TY, though.

Seattle @ Indianapolis
— Seahawks split last six season openers SU.
— Seattle is 4-8-1 ATS in last 13 games as road favorites.
— Seattle won last 2 road openers 28-26/38-25, after losing 11 of previous 12.
— Seahawks are 3-12-1 ATS in last 16 road openers.
— Seattle is 7-4-1 ATS last dozen games vs AFC teams.
— Over is 5-2 in last seven road openers.

— Colts started out 0-1 the last seven years.
— New QB Wentz is 35-33-1 as an NFL starter.
— Last three years, Indy is 9-10-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— Won last two home openers, covered 3 of last 4.
— Colts are 9-2-1 ATS last dozen games vs NFC opponents.
— Last five season openers went over total.

— Colts won three of last five series games.
— Seattle lost 34-28/34-17 in last two visits here.
— Seahawks won last meeting 46-18 at home, in 2017.

LA Chargers @ Washington
— New coach, new OC for Chargers.
— Bolts are 8-4-2 ATS last 14 games as road favorites.
— Chargers are 4-0-1 ATS last five Week 1 road games.
— Bolts are 6-2-1 ATS last nine road openers.
— Last four years, Chargers are 9-6-1 ATS vs NFC teams.
— Bolts are 3-5 ATS as favorites in road openers.

— QB Fitzpatrick gets to start for another NFL team.
— Washington is 4-7 ATS in last 11 games as home underdogs.
— Washington covered last three Week 1 games.
— Washington is 1-4 ATS in last five home openers as a dog.
— Washington is 2-7 SU in last nine home openers.
— Over is 7-3 in their last ten home openers.

— Chargers won four of last five series games.
— Bolts split last two visits here, losing last visit, in 2013.

Jacksonville @ Houston
— First NFL game for Urban Meyer figures to be interesting.
— Jaguars won season opener three of last four years.
— Last nine years, Jacksonville is 9-9 ATS as road favorites.
— Jaguars are 2-5-2 ATS last three years in AFC South road games.
— Jaguars lost 11 of last 13 road openers SU, covered last four.
— Under is 12-6 in their last 18 road openers.

— New coach; he inherited a mess, given QB Watson’s legal issues.
— Starting QB is Tyrod Taylor (24-21-1 as NFL starter)
— Last five years, Texans are 5-13 ATS as home underdogs.
— Texans lost three of last four home openers, scoring 14.5 ppg.
— Houston is 1-5 ATS in last six home openers.
— Under 10-6 in their last 16 home openers.

— Texans won last six series games.
— Jaguars are 6-3 ATS in last nine visits to Houston.
— Two guys who have never been NFL head coaches before.

Cleveland @ Kansas City
— Last year was Cleveland’s first winning season since 2007.
— Browns are 2-19-1 SU in season openers (1-1-1 last three)
— Last 5 years, Cleveland is 12-19-1 ATS as road underdogs.
— Browns are 4-9 ATS as underdogs in road openers.
— Browns are 3-5-1 ATS last nine road openers.
— Last five road openers stayed under total.

— Last 18 years, Super Bowl loser is 4-14 ATS in Week 1 the next year
— Chiefs won last six season openers, covered last four.
— Last five years, they scored 33-42-38-40-34 in Week 1.
— Last four years, Chiefs are 20-14 ATS as home favorites.
— KC won last five home openers, covered last four.
— Over 4-0-2 in their last six home openers.

— Chiefs beat Cleveland 22-17 here in LY’s playoffs (led 19-3 at half).
— Chiefs won last four series games, three by 6 or fewer points.
— Browns covered last four visits to Arrowhead.

Miami @ New England
— Since 1994, under is 22-5 in Miami’s road openers (12-0 last 12)
— Dolphins are 8-4 ATS in last dozen games as road underdogs.
— Miami is 7-3 ATS in last ten games where spread was 3 or fewer points.
— Tagovailoa was 6-3 SU as starting QB last year— he beat NE 22-12 in Miami.
— Last seven years, Dolphins are 7-14 ATS in AFC East road games.
— Miami is 5-12 SU in last 17 road openers (5-3 ATS last 8)

— Patriots started 1-0 in 15 of last 17 seasons.
— New England won 7 of last 8 home openers (4-1 ATS last five)
— Last five years, Patriots are 27-15-1 ATS as home favorites.
— New England figures to run ball lot more with rookie Jones at QB.
— Last three years, under is 15-8-1 in Patriot home games.
— Under 7-2 last nine home openers.

— These teams split their season series the last four years.
— New England covered first meeting the last six years.
— Dolphins lost 11 of last 12 visits to Foxboro (1-8 ATS last nine).

Green Bay vs New Orleans (@ Jacksonville)
— Green Bay won last six season openers (5-1 ATS)
— Last four years, Packers are 7-6 ATS as road favorites.
— Green Bay won/covered last four Week 1 road games.
— Packers are 7-4-1 ATS last 12 games where spread was 3 or less points.
— Last four years, over is 18-11-1 in Green Bay road games.
— Over is 12-3 in their last 15 road openers.

— Saints have new QB (Winston 28-42) for first time since 2005.
— Saints are 17-6 ATS in last 23 games on natural grass.
— New Orleans lost five of last seven season openers.
— Saints are 8-1-1 ATS in last 10 games as single digit underdog.
— Last four years, Saints are +39 in turnovers.
— Saints lost five of last seven season openers.

— Game was moved to Jacksonville because of the hurricane
— Teams split last eight series games.
— Packers won 37-20 in New Orleans LY, their first win in last four visits to Superdome.

Denver @ NY Giants
— Last two years, Broncos started out 0-4, then 0-3.
— Bridegwater (26-24) is starting QB, with Lock as backup.
— Denver lost last four road openers, scoring 16.8 ppg.
— Last 5 years, Broncos are 18-22 ATS on the road.
— Broncos are 7-10 ATS last 17 road openers.
— Last 9 years, Denver is 20-14-2 ATS vs NFC opponents.

— Giants started nine of last ten seasons 0-1.
— Last four years, Giants are 9-22-1 ATS at home.
— Big Blue is 1-8 SU, 0-9 ATS last nine home openers.
— Giants scored 14.2 ppg in last five home openers.
— Last two years, Giants are 1-7 ATS vs AFC opponents.
— Under 7-0 in their last seven home openers.

— Denver won three of last five series games.
— Broncos split last two series games played here.
— Former Giants’ coach Shurmur is Denver’s offensive coordinator.

Chicago @ LA Rams
— Chicago is 1-6 in last seven Week 1 games.
— Dalton is Bears’ starting QB; how long before rookie Fields starts?
— Bears are 2-4 ATS last six road openers.
— Last five years, Chicago is 10-16-1 ATS as road underdogs.
— Bears are 4-6 SU in last ten road openers.
— Under 16-5 in their last 21 road openers.

— First game for Stafford as Rams’ QB, after 12 years in Detroit.
— Rams also have a new defensive coordinator.
— Under McVay, Rams are 4-0 SU in Week 1.
— Rams won/covered last six home openers.
— Under McVay, LA is 14-12-1 ATS as home favorites.
— Under is 4-1 in last five home openers.

— First game with fans at SoFi Stadium.
— Bears won six of last nine series games, but lost 24-10 here LY.
— Chicago’s only TD in that game was scored by the defense.
— Bears lost three of last four road series games, losing by 14-10-21 points.


Monday game
Baltimore @ Las Vegas
— Baltimore won/covered last five season openers
— Ravens won/covered four of last five road openers.
— Baltimore is 12-5-1 ATS in last 18 games as road favorites.
— Ravens are 11-14-1 ATS last 25 games as single digit favorite.
— Baltimore led NFL in rushing each of last two years.
— Over is 9-4-1 in their last 14 road openers.

— Las Vegas won four of last five season openers.
— Raiders won three of last four home openers.
— Last three years, Raiders are 7-7 ATS as home underdogs.
— Las Vegas is 3-5 ATS in last eight tries as a dog in HO’s.
— Over was 6-1-1 in Raider home games LY, their first year in Las Vegas.
— Over is 5-2 in their last seven home openers.

— First game with fans at Allegiant Stadium.
— Ravens won six of last eight series games.
— Ravens split last four trips to Oakland; this is their first visit to Las Vegas.
— Underdogs won three of last four series games SU.

[Udog]

Total Talk - Week 1
Matt Blunt

We've touched on a little bit of everything these past few weeks heading into Week 1 of the NFL season, and now that it's arrived I thought it best to put out just a bit more data on what has really played second fiddle in the majority of those pieces – totals.

Personally, totals betting is something I've been gradually shying away from in recent years (in all sports) because in general they are a lot more random than looking at who will win the game (ML) or will cover a point spread (ATS), and finding historical data points and scenarios that show a distinct pattern with total results are harder to uncover.

But that doesn't mean we can't find a few bullet points to touch on – especially for Week 1 games – as we've still got defined roles for specific teams/players in the season opener that can be discussed historically. And with rookies (head coaches and QB's) being the biggest focal point of pieces in recent weeks, it's best to start there.

So let's take a look at five games across the Week 1 slate, starting with the three we know will have rookie QB's making their NFL debut in Week 1.

Since 2008, rookie QB's starting in Week 1 have produced an 8-4 O/U result in 13 Week 1 games

Jacksonville/Houston (44.5)
N.Y. Jets/Carolina (45)
Miami/New England (44)

The 8-4 O/U result in that span is actually over the course of 13 games, but the 2015 Week 1 contest between #1 overall pick QB Jameis Winston and #2 overall pick Marcus Mariota is only counted once. That game finished with 56 points in the blowout Tampa win to easily cash an 'over' ticket.

Conceptually, backing 'overs' in these first starts for rookie QB's does make quite a bit of sense as it can be seen as somewhat correlated with the sub-par SU and ATS results rookie QB's have in their debuts. I say that because with these guys making their first starts it's easy to expect good (big plays, a few solid drives) and bad (costly turnovers, three-and-outs to give up field position) and either of those scenarios generally lead to points for someone.

A costly turnover on their own side of the field is going to lead to quick scores for the opponent, and quick points for these rookie QB's can come if say, the opposing defense crowds the line more often to bring pressure to take the approach of “let's see you beat us kid.”

Furthermore, there is more of a likelihood for lopsided losses for these rookie QB teams which does create extended garbage time for these debutants and giving them all the reps they can in a meaningful game is something every coach wants to give their young signal caller for their overall growth.

In that case, backdoor covers can become more in play on the spread, but any team needs to score points to waltz through that backdoor, and that's where backing the high side of these totals comes into play again.

Statistically, those 12 games saw a total of 623 total points for an average of 51.91 points per game. That's a number that's a full touchdown over all three of the current totals posted for this year's applicable games.

Four times we had these games finish with 60+ points in the end, with Matthew Stafford's 2009 and Robert Griffin III's 2012 debuts topping the list with 72 points respectively. Seven of the eight 'overs' that cashed in that span also saw at least 50 points scored.

I will heed one small warning though before bettors take this information and blindly back the 'over' in the Jacksonville/Houston, Jets/Carolina and Miami/New England games as the four 'under' results all have something in common as well. Not one of them finished with more than 40 total points.

Joe Burrow and the Bengals' 16-13 loss in Week 1 last year was the only applicable game in 2020, with Carson Wentz's 2016 debut (39 points), Ryan Tannehill's 2012 debut (40 points), and Sam Bradford's 2010 debut (30 points) being the other occurrences in the past.

So what that does do for this week's game is bring some alternate totals into play for those that are already like/will be on an 'under' in any of those three games. Obviously the same thought process with alternate totals could apply to any 'over' look as well given the only sub-50 point 'over' to cash in that span was Cam Newton's 2011 debut (49 points).

Something to keep in mind for all three of those contests on Sunday though.

Super Bowl Champion and Week 1 Team Total

Tom Brady gets to open up another season in the familiar position of raising a banner on Thursday Night, and the Bucs are expected to start out 1-0 SU rather comfortably as a TD+ favorite.

Being in the defending Super Bowl champion role is nothing new for Brady, but Tampa's team total of 30.5 (-120 to over) does bring up an interesting betting angle that Brady and other past former champs have had a tough time clearing in the opening week.

The last two defending champs (New England in 2018 and Kansas City in 2019) managed to put up 33 and 34 points respectively in their Week 1 games, but going all the way back to the Saints trying to defend their 2009 title, Super Bowl champs have only put up 31 or more points four times in 11 tries.

Furthermore, the 297 combined Week 1 points by reigning champs averages out to just 27 points per game over that span, a full FG lower than Tampa's number this year.

That's not the only history that suggests taking Tampa 'under' 30.5 points on TNF is a play to make, as Brady himself in Week 1 games has only scored 30 or more points once since the start of the 2013 season.

New England put up 23 points in that 2013 Week 1 game and continued with 20, 28, 23 (Brady was suspended for this one in 2016 for his deflated footballs), 27, 27, 33 points in his Week 1 games with New England up until 2019.

His debut with Tampa last year saw the Bucs only score 23 points as well. Meaning that only once in the past seven tries (omitting his suspension game in 2016) has a Brady-led offense put up 30 or more points in Week 1.

With all NFL teams likely having plenty of kinks to still work out in Week 1 – especially after a shorter preseason that saw starters across the league see less and less action – a Week 1 team total of 30.5 feels a little high for almost any team, and given the history of both Super Bowl champs and Brady in this specific role, going 'under' this 30.5 team total for Tampa Bay has made my card.

Week 1 MNF, the Raiders, and 'Under' bets

This will be the first year in a long time that NFL bettors don't have a MNF double-header to ******, as the first time with fans in the new Las Vegas palace gets the spotlight all to itself, something you know Al Davis would have basked in.

But opening up the season on MNF is nothing new for the Raiders franchise as this will be the 5th time since 2011 that they have done so, including being their third time in four years. The Raiders are 0-3-1 O/U in the previous four instances in this role, as not one of those games hit more than 46 total points. This year's total currently sits at 51.

Combine that with the Week 1 'under' trend of AFC playoff teams going 'under' in Week 1 applying to Baltimore for this game, and the general idea that the overall betting market is very likely to see more 'over' than 'under' support for the Week 1 finale – as most MNF games do – a likely contrarian play on the 'under' for MNF this week has made the card as well.

Best Bets

NYJ/Carolina Over 45
Miami/New England Over 44.5
Tampa Bay team total Under 30.5
Baltimore/Las Vegas Under 51


 

[Udog]

Gridiron Angles - Week 1
Vince Akins

Play ON ATS Trend of the Week
Matchup: Pittsburgh at Buffalo (1:00 p.m. ET)

-- The Steelers are 9-0 ATS as a dog of more than three points when playing an opponent other than the Patriots.

Play AGAINST ATS Trend of the Week
Matchup: Seattle at Indianapolis (1:00 p.m. ET)

-- The Colts are 0-5-1 ATS and 0-6 SU since 2015 in season openers.

Over OU Trend of the Week
Matchup: Baltimore at Las Vegas (8:15 p.m. ET - Monday)

-- The Raiders are 7-0 OU since December 2019 as home underdogs.

Under OU Trend of the Week
Matchup: San Francisco at Detroit (1:00 p.m. ET)

-- The 49ers are 0-7 OU since 2014 in season openers.

Super System of the Week
Matchup: San Francisco at Detroit (1:00 p.m. ET)

-- Road favorites of more than seven points are 0-7 ATS since 2001. Active against San Francisco.

Trends are verified using Sports Data Query Language (SDQL)


 

[Udog]

NFL
Weather Report

Week 1




 

[Udog]

Betting Recap - Week 1
Joe Williams

Overall Notes



The largest underdogs to win straight up

Steelers +6.5 (ML +240) at Bills, 23-16
Dolphins +3.5 (ML +165) at Patriots, 17-16
Saints +3.5 (ML +165) vs. Packers, 38-3
Bengals +3 (ML +135) vs. Vikings, 27-24 (OT)
Eagles +3 (ML +150) at Falcons, 32-6
Texans +3 (ML +150) vs. Jaguars, 37-21
Cardinals +3 (ML +130) at Titans, 38-13

The largest favorites to cover

Rams (-9) vs. Bears, 34-14
Panthers (-3.5) vs. Jets, 19-14
Broncos (-3) at Giants, 27-13
Seahawks (-3) at Colts, 28-16

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week

If you were holding a Patriots (-3.5) ticket, or to a lesser extent, a Patriots money line ticket, things were looking up. With less than four minutes to go, the Patriots were driving. Rookie QB Mac Jones the opportunity to engineer a game-winning drive in his first NFL start. A field goal would have given the Pats the lead, but a touchdown would've meant they were covering for the first time all day. But it wasn't meant to be.

Dwayne Harris popped out to the right, but put the ball on the ground inside the Miami 10-yard line. DB Xavien Howard pounded on top of the ball, spoiling Harris' fourth-career 100-yard rushing performance. More importantly, bettors were handed a tough loss, almost like losing twice.

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week - Part II

UNDER bettors (47.5) in the Minnesota Vikings-Cincinnati Bengals game were feeling pretty good after a scoreless first quarter. However, the pace picked up dramatically in the second and third quarters with 35 total points. We had 45 on the board until the last tick in regulation, when Vikings PK Greg Joseph lined up for a career-high 53-yard field goal attempt.

He booted it through the uprights with no time left, giving the Vikings (-3) bettors a little hope. At the same time, 48 total points officially splashed cold water on the Under. Vikings bettors still had a shot at a touchdown for a cover, or a push, but the Minnesota offense continually bogged down. A fumble by RB Dalvin Cook inside the Cincinnati 40-yard line meant those hopes were dashed, but a push was still in play. But with no time left on the clock in the extra session, rookie PK Evan McPherson split the uprights from 33 yards out to give the Bengals the outright win.

The Vikings-Bengals game was the only one which required an extra session. It was also one of seven games in Week 1 decided by one score.

Total Recall

The lowest total on the board for Week 1 was the Denver Broncos-New York Giants (41.5) game. The books were on the mark, as we had a scoreless first quarter and a total of just 24 points on the board through 45 minutes heading to the fourth quarter. It was actually one of three games in Week 1 to have a scoreless first quarter, as the New York Jets-Carolina Panthers (44.5) game, and the Vikings-Bengals, had a similar slow start. Only the game in Cincinnati ended up going OVER.

The highest total in the Week 1 slate was the AFC showdown between the Cleveland Browns-Kansas City Chiefs (54.5). It did not disappoint, either. We got off on a bit of a slow start with just 11 points in the first quarter, putting the total on pace for an UNDER. Cleveland held a 22-10 lead at the half, however, picking things up dramatically.

In the second half, it was all Kansas City, as the home side outscored Cleveland by a 23-7 count. As such, the OVER ended up easily cashing.

The second-highest game on the board was the Arizona Cardinals-Tennessee Titans (54) game, and the visitors did their part. They ended up throwing up 38 points on the board, but the Titans, and their retooled offense with newcomer WR Julio Jones, were disappointing. Tennessee managed just 13 points to lay a fat egg, and help keep the total UNDER.

As far as primetime games were concerned, things got off to a high-scoring start. Dallas Cowboys-Tampa Bay Buccaneers (52.5) saw a total of 60 points for the OVER. In the Sunday Night Football game, the Chicago Bears-Los Angeles Rams (46) game inched across the finish line with an OVER, too, but it was a sweat shop.

For the regular season the OVER is 2-0 (100.0%) across 2 primetime games, with the Baltimore Ravens-Las Vegas Raiders game on Monday still pending. In 2020, the UNDER was 28-19-1 (59.5%) in 48 primetime contests. In 2019, the UNDER went 31-17-1 (64.6%) during primetime games.

Looking Ahead to Week 2

New York Giants at Washington Football Team (Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET)

The Giants didn't come close to covering the spread at home in Week 1 against the Broncos, while WFT came up on the short end of the stick in a 20-16 score as two-point favorites.

The G-Men didn't have a lot of success in 2020, but they did manage to sweep the NFC East Division champs from Washington, including a 23-20 victory in Week 9 as three-point underdogs. The UNDER cashed in each game, with New York averaging 21.5 PPG in the two meetings, and Washington averaging 19.5 PPG.

In 2019, New York also swept Washington, including a thrilling 41-35 overtime win in Week 16 on Dec. 22, 2019. The Giants have won five straight in this series, and three straight in D.C. dating back to Nov. 23, 2017.

New England Patriots at New York Jets (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

The Patriots came up short at home against the division-rival Dolphins, and now the rookie Jones will make his first start on the road. The Jets ended up losing to old friend QB Sam Darnold and the Carolina Panthers in Charlotte, missing out on the cover as the UNDER connected.

These teams last met Jan. 3, 2021 in Week 17, with the Patriots winning 28-14 with the OVER (41) just coming in. The Jets narrowly missed in Week 9, too, covering as 9-point underdogs in a 30-27 loss as the OVER also connected. In fact, the OVER is 3-1 across the past four meetings in this series.

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

Tom Brady and the Bucs face the NFC East champs in D.C. in a 5-4 game. Despite the lower seed the Buccaneers opened as a touchdown favorite, one of just two road favorites in the wild-card round. Washington ended the regular season 1-2 SU in their final three, and 0-2 ATS in the final two, while the 'under' cashed in five straight to close out the season.

The Bucs tossed up 91 total points in the final two weekends, as their offense is on fire. They won four in a row, and went 4-1 ATS down the stretch in the final five. Tampa Bay has also scored 24 or more points in each of the past seven, although the 'under' is still 3-2 in the past five. Watch WR Mike Evans and his status, as he hyperextended a left knee in the finale. An MRI showed no structural or ligament damage, which is good, but he is still a question mark.

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

The Saints, displaced by Hurricane Ida, were forced to move its game from New Orleans after damage to the city. They were given a choice, and selected a Florida location based upon the struggles of the Packers in the Sunshine State. They chose wisely. New Orleans thrashed Green Bay 38-3 to easily cover as 4-point 'dogs as the UNDER (48.5) connected.

The Panthers, as mentioned above, topped Darnold's old team, the Jets, at BoA in Charlotte by a 19-14 count as the UNDER hit.

These teams met in Week 17, with New Orleans winning 33-7 in Charlotte as the UNDER connected. Of course, a lot of the recent history is a little on the meaningless side since QB Drew Brees has retired, and a lot of the recent history involves QB Cam Newton for the Panthers. He isn't even on an NFL roster at the moment.

For what it's worth, though, the Saints have won four straight trips to Charlotte, going 3-1 ATS. The three covers were all victories by 21 or more points, too.

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

The defending champion Bucs escaped on Thursday night with a 31-29 victory against the Dallas Cowboys as the OVER cashed and the visitors covered. The Falcons also faced an NFC East foe, falling 32-6 at home to the Philadelphia Eagles.

The Buccaneers won in Week 17 by a 44-27 count as 7.5-point favorites on Jan. 3, 2021 as the OVER (51.5) cashed. The teams met just two weeks prior at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, and the Bucs escaped with a 31-27 win as the OVER (49.5) also hit.

When these teams meet, points are sure to follow. We have had six straight OVER results in this series, including each of the past three meetings in Tampa, since an UNDER on Dec. 18, 2017.

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET)

The Lions were getting buried, but they made a valiant comeback against the 49ers at Ford Field. San Francisco ended up winning 41-33, but the Lions grabbed a cover. The OVER (46) easily cashed in the highest scoring game of the weekend.

The Packers managed just a field goal, falling 38-3 in Jacksonville against the Saints as the UNDER held on. QB Aaron Rodgers looked frustrated all day, and he was yanked early in the fourth quarter as rookie Jordan Love mopped up.

Green Bay won 31-24 in Week 14 at Ford Field, but the Lions grabbed a cover. The UNDER (55.5) came in at most shops, too, ever so narrowly. The Pack won 42-21 at home in Week 2 as 7-point favorites, too, as the OVER (51) hit. Green Bay has won four straight in the series, but Detroit is 3-1 ATS across the past four meetings.


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