Cnotes college football 2021-2022 news/trends/best bets thru ncaa championship !

[Udog]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 0

Saturday, August 28

Nebraska @ Illinois
— Last four years, Nebraska is 16-28 SU
— Cornhuskers’ last bowl game was five years ago.
— Nebraska has 7 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— Cornhuskers have 54 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Nebraska’s QB is making his 30th career start.
— Under Frost, Cornhuskers are 2-3 ATS as a road favorite.

— Illinois has had nine losing seasons in a row.
— New coach this year is Bielema, ex-Wisconsin/Arkansas coach.
— Illinois has 9 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
— Illini have 88 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Last six years, Illinois is 9-16 ATS as a home underdog.
— Bielema is 26-23-1 ATS as an underdog. 11-10 as a home dog.

— Nebraska won six of last eight series games.
— Five of those six wins were by 15+ points.
— Huskers won 42-38/28-6 in last two visits to Illinois.
— Last three years, Illinois ran for 285-221-383 yards vs Nebraska.

UConn @ Fresno State
— UConn didn’t play last year, hard team to handicap.
— Huskies were 9-39 SU from 2016-19.
— UConn has 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
— Huskies have 47 returning starts on the offensive line.
— UConn has a QB with 6 starts; unsure who the starter will be.
— Huskies are 2-9 ATS last 11 games as road underdogs.

— Fresno was 3-3 LY, giving up 34+ points in all the losses.
— Bulldogs went 7-11 last two years; in 2017-18, they were 22-6
— Fresno has 9 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— Bulldogs have 51 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Washington transfer Haener (6 starts) is new starting QB.
— Last two years, Bulldogs were 4-8 ATS as favorites, 2-5 at home.

— These teams haven’t met the last 20 years.

Hawai’i @ UCLA
— Last three years, Hawai’i is 23-15 SU.
— Rainbows went bowling last three years, winning last two.*
— Hawai’i has 7 starters back on offense, 11 on defense.
— Rainbows have 73 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Hawai’i’s soph QB has started 13 games.
— Last four years, Rainbows are 6-11 ATS as road underdogs.

— Three years under Kelly, UCLA is 10-19 SU.
— Bruins’ last bowl was 2017; last bowl win was 2014.*
— UCLA has 10 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— Bruins have 61 returning starts on the offensive line.
— UCLA’s junior QB is making his 25th career start.
— Under Kelly, Bruins are 2-6 ATS as a home favorite.
— UCLA hosts LSU next week; will they be looking ahead?

— UCLA (-24) waxed Hawai’i 56-23 in last meeting, four years ago.

Texas-El Paso (3-4) @ New Mexico State
— UTEP has had six losing seasons in a row.*
— Three years under Dimel, Miners are 5-27 SU.
— Miners have 11 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
— UTEP has 101 returning starts on the offensive line.
— UTEP’s soph QB has 7 career starts.
— Last 10 years, UTEP is 1-1-1 ATS as road favorites.
— Last time Miners were a road favorite? 2015.

— New Mexico State played two I-AA games LY and lost one.
— Last three years, NM State is 6-20 SU. *
— NM State has 3 starters back on offense, zero on defense- not good.
— Aggies have 61 returning starts on the offensive line.
— NM State’s junior QB is making his 3rd career start.
— Aggies are 2-5 ATS last seven games as a home underdog.

— NM State won/covered last three series games.
— Miners lost 44-35/41-14 in last two trips two Las Cruces.
— Favorites are 6-0-2 ATS last eight series games.

[Udog]

NCAAF

Week 0

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Trend Report
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Saturday, August 28

Nebraska @ Illinois
Nebraska
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Nebraska's last 6 games on the road*
Nebraska is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Illinois*
Illinois
Illinois is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Nebraska*
Illinois is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games*

Connecticut @ Fresno State
Connecticut
Connecticut is 8-16 ATS in its last 24 games*
Connecticut is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games on the road*
Fresno State
Fresno State is 15-6 SU in its last 21 games at home*
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Fresno State's last 6 games at home*

Hawaii @ California-Los Angeles
Hawaii
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Hawaii's last 5 games on the road*
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Hawaii's last 6 games*
California-Los Angeles
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of California-Los Angeles's last 6 games at home*
California-Los Angeles is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games*

Texas El Paso @ New Mexico State
Texas El Paso
Texas El Paso is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road*
Texas El Paso is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games*
New Mexico State
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Mexico State's last 5 games*
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Mexico State's last 5 games at home*

Southern Utah @ San Jose State
Southern Utah
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Southern Utah's last 5 games on the road*
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Southern Utah's last 5 games*
San Jose State
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Jose State's last 5 games*
San Jose State is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games


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[Udog]

Tech Trends - Week 1
Bruce Marshall

[Udog]

NCAAF

Week 1

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Trend Report
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[Udog]

NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 1

Wednesday, September 1 - Thursday, September 2

[Udog]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 1

Thursday’s games
Temple @ Rutgers
— Temple was 1-6 LY, its first losing season in seven years.
— Over last decade, Owls are 24-17 ATS out of conference.
— Temple has 8 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
— Owls have 87 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Owls have freshman QB with 1 start- he threw 30 passes for Georgia LY.
— Temple is 13-6 ATS last 19 games as a road underdog.

— Last six years, Rutgers is 16-53 SU.
— Since 2013, Scarlet Knights are 15-11 ATS out of conference.
— Rutgers has 11 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— Rutgers has 69 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Rutgers’ junior QB has started 7 games.
— Last five years, Rutgers is 4-3 ATS as home favorite.

— Rutgers won last four series games.
— Teams haven’t met since 2013.
— Underdogs are 4-1 ATS in last five series games played here.

Boise State @ Central Florida
— Over last decade, Boise State is 100-27 SU.
— Broncos are 9-11 ATS in last 20 non-league games.
— Boise State has 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
— Broncos have 66 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Boise has soph QB who has started 13 games.
— Last seven years, Boise is 5-2 ATS as an underdog.

— UCF is 41-8 last four years; Gus Malzahn is new coach.
— Malzahn is 22-26-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— UCF has 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
— Golden Knights have 99 returning starts on the offensive line.
— UCF has a sophomore QB with 22 career starts.
— Last five years, UCF is 15-12-1 ATS as home favorites.

— These teams haven’t met in last 20 years.

East Carolina vs Appalachian State (@ Charlotte)
— East Carolina has six straight losing seasons.
— ECU is 4-9 ATS in last 13 non-leaguer games.
— East Carolina has 10 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— Pirates have 69 returning starts on the offensive line.
— East Carolina has a junior QB has started 25 games.
— Last two years, Pirates are 9-7 ATS as road underdogs.

— Last six years, ASU is 63-15 SU.
— App State is 14-9 ATS last 23 non-league games.
— App State has 7 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— ASU has 69 returning starts on the offensive line.
— App State has a QB with 11 starts- he transferred from Duke.
— ASU was 2-7-1 ATS as favorite LY, coach Clark’s first year.

— These teams haven’t met since 2012.

South Florida @ NC State
— South Florida went 5-16 last two years, after a 36-15 run.
— Bulls are 14-11 ATS in last 25 non-league games.
— USF has 9 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
— Bulls have 108 returning starts on the offensive line.
— USF will have a new QB; they have transfers from UNC, Miami.
— Bulls are 12-9-1 ATS last 22 games as road underdogs.

— NC State finished over .500 six of last seven years.
— State is 6-10 ATS last 16 non-conference games.
— Wolfpack has 9 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— State has 73 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Wolfpack has soph QB with 8 starts; he’s had injury issues.
— Last three years, State is 9-6 ATS as home favorites.

— These teams haven’t met since 2014.

Bowling Green @ Tennessee
— Bowling Green is 12-41 SU since Dino Babers bolted to Syracuse.
— Falcons were 0-5 LY, outscored 225-57.
— Falcons have 4 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
— Bowling Green has only 14 returning starts on offensive line.
— Falcons have a junior QB with 5 starts.
— Last two years, Falcons are 0-9 ATS as an underdog.

— Tennessee is playing first game for new coach Heupel.
— Heupel was 9-8 ATS as home favorite at Central Florida.
— Tennessee has 5 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
— Vols have 70 returning starts on offensive line.
— Vols have QB with 5 starts who transferred from Michigan.
— Last four years, Tennessee is 5-10 ATS as home favorites.

— Vols (-21.5) beat Bowling Green 59-30 in 2015.

Ohio State @ Minnesota
— Last nine years, Ohio State is 106-11 SU.
— Buckeyes have home game with Oregon next; better not look ahead.
— Buckeyes have 6 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
— OSU has 37 returning starts on offensive line.
— Ohio State doesn’t have a QB who has thrown a college pass.
— Coach Day is 14-5 ATS as a favorite, 6-1 on road.

— Minnesota was 3-4 SU LY, 18-8 previous two years.
— Last two years, Gophers are 11-5 ATS in conference games.
— Minnesota has 10 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— Gophers have 182 (yes, 182) returning starts on offensive line.
— Gophers have a junior QB with 26 starts.
— Since 2013, Minnesota is 11-8 ATS as home underdog.

— Teams haven’t played since 2018.
— Ohio State won last 11 series games (2-5 ATS last seven)
— Buckeyes covered five of last seven visits to Minnesota.

[Udog]

NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 1

Friday, September 3






NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-up

Week 1

Friday’s games
North Carolina @ Virginia Tech
— UNC is 15-10 SU in two years under Mack Brown.
— Tar Heels were 5-18 the two years before Brown took over.
— Tar Heels have 8 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— Tech has 111 returning starts on the offensive line.
— UNC has a soph QB with 25 career starts.
— Last three years, Tar Heels are 3-5 ATS as road favorites.

— Tech is 19-18 SU last three years.
— Under Fuente, Hokies are 3-5 ATS as home underdogs.
— Tech has 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
— Tech has 106 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Hokies’ junior QB has started four games.
— Last four years, Tech is 12-14 ATS at home.

— Va Tech is 13-4 in last 17 series games.
— Tar Heels lost six of last eight visits to Blacksburg.
— Last two series games ended 56-45/43-41

Old Dominion @ Wake Forest
— Old Dominion sat out LY; they were 1-11 in 2019.
— Monarchs’ new coach was an OC at Penn State.
— ODU has 7 starters back on offense, 3 on defense.
— Monarchs have 52 returning starts on OL, very little depth.
— ODU has QB who started 3 games at Central Florida.
— Monarchs are 6-3 ATS in last nine games as a road underdog.

— Wake was over .500 four of last five seasons.
— Deacons are 9-7-1 ATS in last 17 non-conference games.
— Wake has 11 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
— Deacons have 102 returning starts on offensive line.
— Wake has a sophomore QB with 19 career starts.
— Under Clawson, Deacons are 12-10 ATS as home favorites.

— These teams haven’t played each other.

Duke @ Charlotte
— Duke went 7-16 SU last two seasons.
— Last 8 years, Blue Devils are 26-8 ATS out of conference.
— Duke has 6 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
— Blue Devils have 91 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Duke will have new starting QB for third year in row.
— Under Cutcliffe, Blue Devils are 33-24-2 ATS as favorites.

— Charlotte is 9-10 SU in two years under Healy.
— 49ers added several transfers last winter.
— Charlotte has 8 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
— 49ers have 29 returning starts on offensive line.
— Charlotte has a junior QB with 24 starts.
— Under Healy, 49ers are 3-5 ATS as an underdog.

— Duke (-20) waxed Charlotte 53-19 LY, running for 274 yards.

Michigan State @ Northwestern
— Michigan State is 16-17 SU last three years.
— Tucker is 2-5-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— Spartans have 9 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
— MSU has 120 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Michigan State has a QB who started 26 games for Temple.
— MSU is 1-4-1 ATS in last six games as a road underdog.

— Northwestern finished over .500 five of last six seasons.
— Last six years, Wildcats are 30-15 ATS in conference games.
— Wildcats have 4 starters back on offense, 4 on defense.
— Northwestern has 42 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Northwestern’s QB is a Clemson transfer with 5 career starts.
— Last six years, Wildcats are 12-11-1 ATS as home favorites.

— Northwestern is 4-3 in last seven series games, but lost last two.
— Five of last seven series games were won SU by underdogs.
— Spartans won six of last seven visits to Evanston.


 

[Udog]

NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 1

Friday, September 3

St. Francis (PA) at Eastern Michigan
Time: 7:00 pm ET
Dunkel Ratings: St. Francis (PA) 45.011; Eastern Michigan 80.607
Dunkel Line & Total: Eastern Michigan by 35 ?; 65
Vegas Line & Total: Eastern Michigan by 32 ?; 54
Dunkel Pick: Eastern Michigan (-32 ?); Over

South Dakota at Kansas
Time: 8:00 pm ET
Dunkel Ratings: South Dakota 56.172; Kansas 71.429
Dunkel Line & Total: Kansas by 15 ?; 49
Vegas Line & Total: Kansas by 13; 56
Dunkel Pick: Kansas (-13); Under

Northern Colorado at Colorado
Time: 9:00 pm ET
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Colorado 53.341; Colorado 83.112
Dunkel Line & Total: Colorado by 30; 50
Vegas Line & Total: Colorado by 38; 56 ?
Dunkel Pick: Northern Colorado (+38); Under

South Dakota State at Colorado State
Time: 9:00 pm ET
Dunkel Ratings: South Dakota State 85.213; Colorado State 75.470
Dunkel Line & Total: South Dakota State by 10; 47
Vegas Line & Total: Colorado State by 3; 52 ?
Dunkel Pick: South Dakota State (+3); Under


 

[Udog]

NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 1

Saturday, September 4





 

[Udog]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-up

Week 1

Saturday’s top 13 games
Stanford vs Kansas State (@Arlington, TX)
— Stanford finished over .500 nine of last ten years.
— Cardinal is 6-8-1 ATS in last 15 non-conference games.
— Cardinal has 6 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
— Stanford has 53 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Cardinal will have a new QB this season.
— Under Shaw, Stanford is 14-11-1 ATS as underdogs.

— Last three years, K-State is 17-18 SU.
— Klieman was Carson Wentz’s coach at North Dakota State.
— Wildcats have 10 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
— K-State has 53 returning starts on offensive line.
— Wildcats have senior QB with 30 career starts.
— Under Klieman, K-State is 5-3 ATS as a favorite.

— In 2016, Stanford (-14) beat K-State 26-13.

Penn State @ Wisconsin
— Penn State won last four games LY, after starting out 0-5.
— Four years before that, Nittany Lions were 41-11 SU.
— Penn State has 9 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
— Penn State has 47 returning starts on offensive line.
— Penn State has a junior QB, with 20 starts.
— Last five years, Nittany Lions are 4-2 ATS as road underdogs.

— Over last decade, Wisconsin is 95-35 SU.
— Badgers are 10-15 ATS in last 25 conference games.
— Badgers have 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
— Wisconsin has 59 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Wisconsin has a freshman QB, with seven starts.
— Last three years, Badgers are 5-11 ATS as a home favorite.

— Penn State won/covered last four series games.
— Nittany Lions split their last six visits to Madison.
— Teams didn’t play last two seasons.

West Virginia @ Maryland
— West Virginia finished over .500 six of last seven years.
— WVU is 6-10 ATS in last 16 non-conference games.
— Mountaineers have 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
— WVU has 54 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Mountaineers have junior QB with 31 career starts.
— Last eight years, West Virginia is 8-9 ATS as road favorites.

— Maryland has had six consecutive losing seasons.
— Locksley is 18-24 ATS as an underdog.
— Maryland has 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
— Maryland has 36 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Terrapins have sophomore QB who started 4 games.
— Last seven years, Maryland is 7-11 ATS as home underdog.

— Teams haven’t met since 2015.
— West Virginia won nine of last ten series games.

Indiana @ Iowa
— Hoosiers were 14-7 SU the last two years.
— Before 2019, Indiana had eight losing seasons in a row.
— Hoosiers have 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
— Indiana has 46 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Indiana has a soph QB with 12 career starts.
— Last three years, Indiana is 7-0 ATS as a road underdog.

— Iowa has had eight winning seasons in a row.
— Ferentz is 87-71-2 ATS as a favorite.
— Hawkeyes have 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
— Iowa has 38 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Hawkeyes have a soph QB this year, with 8 starts.
— Last three years, Iowa is 9-6 ATS as a home favorite.

— Iowa won seven of last eight series games.
— Teams didn’t meet the last two seasons.
— Favorites covered last four series games.

Louisiana @ Texas
— Louisiana went 21-4 SU last two seasons.
— Last three years, ULL is 9-4 ATS out of conference.
— Cajuns have 10 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— Louisiana has 140 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Cajuns have a senior QB with 28 career starts.
— Last 3 years, Louisiana is 7-2-1 ATS as road underdog.

— First game as Texas coach for Sarkisian.
— Herman got fired despite going 25-12 SU last three years.
— Sarkisian was 17-11 ATS as home favorite at Washington/USC.
— Texas has 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
— Longhorns have 82 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Texas has a new coach, new QB.
— Last 4 years, Longhorns are 7-12 ATS as home favorites.

— These teams haven’t met in last 20 years.

Alabama vs Miami (@ Atlanta)
— Over last decade, Alabama is 127-12 SU
— Alabama is 13-10-1 ATS in last 24 games outside SEC
— Crimson Tide has 3 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
— Alabama has 54 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Bama’s new QB threw 22 passes in mop-up time LY.
— Alabama is 9-7 ATS in last 16 games on neutral fields.

— Miami finished over .500 five of last six years.
— Miami is 7-9 ATS in last 16 non-conference games.
— Miami has 10 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
— Miami has 190 returning starts on offensive line.
— Hurricanes’ senior QB has started 30 games.
— Under Diaz, Miami is 4-1 ATS as an underdog.

— These teams haven’t met in last 20 years.

San Jose State @ USC
— San Jose went 7-1 LY, their first winning year since 2012.
— Spartans beat up a I-AA team 45-14 LW, throwing for 410 yards.
— Spartans have 9 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— San Jose has 112 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Spartans have a senior QB with 18 career starts- he used to play at Arkansas.
— Last three years, San Jose is 9-3 ATS as a road underdog.

— USC went 13-6 SU the last two years.
— Trojans open Pac-12 play with Stanford next week.
— Trojans have 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
— USC has 75 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Trojans have a soph QB with 17 career starts.
— Last four years, USC is 7-12 ATS as home favorite.

— These teams haven’t met since 2009.

Texas Tech @ Houston (NRG Stadium)
— Tech has had five losing seasons in a row.
— Red Raiders are 8-5-1 ATS last 14 games out of conference.
— Red Raiders have 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
— Tech has 84 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Tech’s soph QB started seven games at Oregon.
— Last two years, Red Raiders are 3-7 ATS on the road.

— In two years under Holgorsen, Houston is 7-13 SU
— last eight years, Cougars are 21-14 ATS out of conference.
— Cougars have 9 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
— Houston has 103 returning starts on offensive line.
— Houston’s junior QB has started 17 games.
— Holgorsen is 25-34-1 ATS at home.

— Tech won last three series games.
— Red Raiders won last meeting 63-49; yardage was 704-635.

Georgia vs Clemson (@ Charlotte)
— Georgia won 10+ games seven of last ten years.
— Dawgs are 9-7 ATS in last 16 non-conference games.
— Dawgs have 8 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
— Georgia has 38 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Dawgs’ soph QB has 16 career starts.
— Under Smart, Georgia is 3-2 ATS as an underdog.

— Over last decade, Clemson is 121-18 SU.
— Last three years, Tigers are 6-8 ATS out of conference.
— Clemson has 5 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
— Tigers have 37 returning starts on offensive line.
— Clemson’s freshman QB has made 2 starts.
— Clemson is 14-8 ATS in last 22 games as a favorite.

— Teams haven’t met since 2014.
— Georgia won three of last four series games.

Southern Miss @ South Alabama
— USM finished over .500 five of last six years.
— Golden Eagles’ new coach was OC at Tulane last two years
— Golden Eagles have 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
— USM has 47 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Golden Eagles’ soph QB has 3 starts
— USM’s is 12-9 ATS in its last 21 road games.

— South Alabama has had seven straight losing seasons.
— Last nine years, Jaguars are 20-23 ATS out of conference.
— USA has 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
— You’re reading ***************.com
— Jaguars have 69 returning starts on offensive line.
— USA’s QB has also played at South Carolina/Utah.
— Jaguars are 13-11 ATS in last 24 home games.

— USA (+13.5) upset Southern Miss 32-21 LY in Hattiesburg.
— Jaguars threw for 363 yards in that game.

LSU @ UCLA (1-0)
— LSU practiced in Houston this week because of the hurricane.
— Last nine years, Tigers are 18-21 ATS out of conference.
— LSU has 9 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
— Tigers have 97 returning starts on the offensive line.
— LSU’s junior QB has made three starts.
— Under Orgeron, Tigers are 7-6 ATS as a road favorite.

— Three years under Kelly, UCLA is 10-21 SU.
— Bruins’ last bowl was 2017; last bowl win was 2014.
— UCLA has 10 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— Bruins have 73 returning starts on the offensive line.
— UCLA’s junior QB is making his 25th career start.
— Under Kelly, Bruins are 4-5 ATS as a home underdog.

— These teams haven’t met in last 20 years.

BYU vs Arizona (@ Las Vegas)
— BYU was 11-1 LY, after going 18-21 previous three years.
— Cougars play their arch-rival Utah next week.
— BYU has 7 starters back on offense, 4 on defense.
— Cougars have 86 returning starts on the offensive line.
— BYU will have a new QB this season.
— Cougars were 8-3 ATS as a favorite last year.

— Arizona’s new coach has lot of NFL experience as an assistant.
— Wildcats were 0-5 LY, are 9-20 SU last three years,.
— Arizona has 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
— Arizona has 81 returning starts on offensive line.
— Arizona’s soph QB started 16 games at South Florida.
— Last two years, Wildcats are 4-9 ATS as an underdog.

— BYU won last two series games, 28-23/18-16
— Last meeting was three years ago.

Nevada @ California
— last three years, Nevada is 22-13 SU
— Wolf Pack is 7-12 ATS in last 19 non-league games.
— Nevada has 10 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— Wolf Pack has 63 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Nevada’s soph QB has 19 career starts.
— Wolf Pack is 8-12 ATS in last 20 games as road underdog.

— Cal only played four games LY; three of them were decided by 4 or less points.
— Golden Bears are 5-6 ATS in last 11 non-league games.
— Cal has 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
— Cal has 99 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Cal’s soph QB has 19 career starts.
— Last three years, Golden Bears are 0-7-1 ATS as home favorites.

— Teams haven’t met since 2012.

[Udog]

NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 1

Sunday, September 5






NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-up

Week 1

Sunday’s game
Notre Dame @ Florida State
— Last four years, Notre Dame is 43-8 SU.
— In his career, Kelly is 27-23-2 ATS as road favorite.
— Notre Dame has 3 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
— Notre Dame has 62 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Notre Dame has QB who started 18 games at Wisconsin.
— Last four years, Notre Dame is 10-4-2 ATS as road favorite.

— Last three years, Florida State is 14-20 SU.
— FSU has same OC as LY for first time in five years.
— Seminoles have 10 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
— FSU has 100 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Seminoles’ senior QB started 33 games at UCF, was hurt last two years.
— Last five years, FSU is 10-15 ATS as home favorite.

— Notre Dame won last two series games, 42-26/42-23
— Fighting Irish ran ball for 353-365 yards in those games.


 

[StarDust Bum]

Week 1 winners and losers: How much did the loss to Georgia hurt Clemson's chances at the playoff?

Does Saturday night’s loss to Georgia already put Clemson on the outside of the College Football Playoff?

Look, we realize that talking about a four-team playoff is pretty absurd after the first week of the college football season. But it’s hard not to wonder just how much Clemson’s chances of a seventh straight playoff berth decreased with a 10-3 loss to Georgia to open the season.

The Tigers are going to be favored in each of their 11 remaining regular season games. The odds of Clemson finishing the regular season with an 11-1 record and then winning the ACC title game are still exceptionally high. There doesn’t seem to be a real challenger to the Tigers in the conference and there are no teams in the AP preseason Top 25 remaining on Clemson’s schedule.

But that lack of schedule strength may be more of a curse than a blessing. While Clemson has a straightforward path to an 11-win season, those 11 wins may not be enough to make the playoff.

Consider this: No. 1 Alabama looked like the reloaded team we thought they were in a win over No. 14 Miami on Saturday afternoon. The Crimson Tide are still looking pretty to go 12-0 or 11-1. While No. 2 Oklahoma didn’t put Tulane away on Saturday in a 40-35 win, the Sooners are still the Big 12 favorites. And with both Iowa State and Texas in the conference, there are multiple opportunities for quality wins by the Sooners.

Georgia has its quality win already with the victory over the Tigers. And there’s also Ohio State, a team that sprinted away from Minnesota to open the season Thursday night and has the chance for a big non-conference win in Week 2 when No. 11 Oregon comes to Columbus.

Only the biggest Clemson homers would put the Tigers ahead of any of those four aforementioned teams in the race for the playoff. And even if one or all of those teams stumbles at some point during the regular season, where does Clemson excel enough to make up ground? Top ACC Coastal contenders North Carolina and Miami are now both 0-1. Will they be high enough in the College Football Playoff standings to provide Clemson the boost it would need on championship Saturday?

This is also a Clemson team that didn’t look anything like the powerhouses we’ve seen over the past few years. While D.J. Uiagalelei filled in admirably for Trevor Lawrence in 2020 while Lawrence was out with COVID-19, it’s clear he’s still growing into his role as the Tigers’ full-time starter. And Clemson showed Saturday night that its offensive line is a work in progress while there’s also no clear replacement for Travis Etienne.

The workhorse back was a relatively unsung hero for the Tigers’ offense over the past four seasons as Lawrence and Deshaun Watson got a lot of credit. Yes, Etienne was considered one of the top running backs in the country in his time at Clemson, but it’s still possible that his importance to the Clemson offense was undervalued. On Saturday night, no Clemson non-QB got more than 14 carries and the team’s leading rusher (Lyn-J Dixon) had one carry for 10 yards.

Clemson’s veteran defense showed once again on Saturday night that it was a great unit. The Tigers held Georgia to just three offensive points and 256 total yards. That’s typically enough to win games with ease. But it wasn’t enough on Saturday night. Clemson looked the most vulnerable it's ever been in the College Football Playoff era against Georgia. And that’s more than enough to make us wonder if the playoff streak is in serious jeopardy.

Here are the rest of the winners and losers from the first week of the 2021 college football season.

- Nick Bromberg

WINNERS

Alabama QB Bryce Young: Bryce Young’s debut as Alabama’s starting quarterback was a thing of beauty. The Crimson Tide spanked No. 14 Miami in Atlanta, 44-13, and Young lived up to the five-star hype. Young completed 27-of-38 throws for 344 yards and four touchdowns, including a fantastic 94-yarder to Jameson Williams out of his own end zone. He couldn’t have thrown it any better.

Texas:

The first game of the Steve Sarkisian era was very positive for Texas. The Longhorns, ranked No. 21 in the country, hosted No. 23 Louisiana and came away with an impressive 38-18 victory. Louisiana was one of the best Group of Five teams in the country in 2020 but Texas’ talent won out on Saturday. RB Bijan Robinson and WR Jordan Whittington were especially impressive. Robinson rushed for 103 yards and a touchdown. He also caught four passes for 73 yards and a score. Whittington went for 113 yards and a score on seven receptions.

Penn State:

How about that Penn State defense? The PSU defense was on the field for a whopping 95 plays on the road at Wisconsin and only surrendered 10 points. Along the way, the Nittany Lions forced three turnovers, including two pivotal interceptions in the final minutes. PSU took a 16-10 lead with 9:17 to play and then intercepted Wisconsin QB Graham Mertz twice to seal a dramatic victory. Jaquan Brisker’s interception on fourth-and-goal was the play of the game. Gus Johnson’s call was electric.

Michigan State RB Kenneth Walker:

Walker was the best player on the field in his first game in a Michigan State uniform. The Wake Forest transfer reeled off a 75-yard touchdown run on his first touch as a Spartan. It was a sign of things to come in a 38-21 road win for MSU. Walker finished the night with 263 yards and four touchdowns on 23 carries. Walker rushed for 579 yards and 13 touchdowns last year at Wake. If his Week 1 performance is any indication, he is set to blow past those stats this year.

UCLA:

It wasn't just that the Bruins beat No. 16 LSU on Saturday, it was the way they did it. In a 38-27 win, UCLA completely dominated the lines of scrimmage by rushing for 208 yards and limiting the LSU to just 48 yards on 25 carries. The running back duo of Zach Charbonnet and Brittain Brown was excellent and QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson connected on several explosive gains in the passing game. On top of that, the defense was able to get consistent pressure on LSU QB Max Johnson. It's hard not to be impressed by Chip Kelly's team.

Michigan:

The 2020 season was a brutal one for Michigan, but Jim Harbaugh’s group started the 2021 season with an excellent outing. The Wolverines blew out Western Michigan by a score of 47-14 and used a dominant rushing attack to do so. Michigan put up 335 rushing yards with Blake Corum (14 carries for 111 yards) and Hassan Haskins (13 carries for 70 yards) leading the way. Saturday’s performance had to have given the Wolverines a nice confidence boost with soon-to-be-former-No. 20 Washington visiting Ann Arbor next weekend.

South Carolina QB Zeb Noland:

You probably know the story by now. A few weeks ago, Noland was serving as a graduate assistant. But with starting QB Luke Doty injured and the Gamecocks' QB depth lacking, Noland was added to the active roster. The former QB at Iowa State and North Dakota State then became South Carolina's starter. South Carolina beat Eastern Illinois 46-0 on Saturday, and Noland threw four TD passes. He only had 121 yards, but hey, four TDs is impressive no matter the circumstances.

Big Sky Conference:

Three members of the Big Sky beat FBS opponents in Week 1. Montana's monster upset over No. 20 Washington will deservedly get the headlines, but don't forget about UC Davis beating Tulsa and Eastern Washington beating UNLV. Maybe once the Big 12 is through raiding the AAC, the AAC can pluck a few of these Big Sky schools to fill out its roster of members?

Maryland:

One of the best games of the early window was West Virginia vs. Maryland. It was close the whole way through, but the Terps emerged with a 30-24 victory. Maryland trailed 21-20 at halftime before pulling ahead in the fourth quarter. The Terrapins put the game away with a 60-yard TD pass from Taulia Tagovailoa to Rakim Jarrett with 6:25 to play. Tagovailoa was excellent in the win. He completed 26-of-36 throws for 332 yards and three touchdowns. Jarrett and Dontay Demus were his top targets. The duo combined for 12 catches for 255 yards and two scores while Maryland also forced four turnovers.

Kansas:

Kansas scored a late touchdown to beat South Dakota, 17-14, on Friday night to give Lance Leipold a win in his KU debut as the Jayhawks avoided losing to an FCS team again. The win was also Kansas' first since Oct. 26, 2019. Naturally, the fans stormed the field. There won't be many more wins for the Jayhawks in 2021, so enjoy the moment while you can.

LOSERS

Oklahoma: Yes, we're putting Oklahoma in this category despite touting their playoff chances above. The Sooners had a rough go of it on Saturday and fell behind Tulane early before having to stave off a late Green Wave comeback.

That comeback should never have happened. OU was up 37-14 at halftime before hanging on to win 40-35. Yes, Oklahoma scored just three points in the second half. Heisman favorite Spencer Rattler was 30-of-39 passing for 304 yards and a TD and two interceptions while also running for a TD. One of those picks came on Rattler's second throw of the game.

And while Rattler didn't have an A game, neither did the Oklahoma defense. The Sooners' defensive improvement is key to their chances of making the playoff. And while Tulane is a solid AAC team, giving up 35 to the Green Wave is not a good omen for the rest of the season.

Iowa State:

If we’re picking on Oklahoma, Iowa State deserves a bit of criticism too. The Cyclones have been prone to slow starts under Matt Campbell, and Saturday was no different. ISU opened the season ranked No. 7, its best preseason ranking ever. The Cyclones did not live up to that billing against FCS Northern Iowa. Iowa State managed to win the game, but it was just by the score of 16-10. ISU went into halftime with 13-10 lead and managed to score only three points in the second half. That’s not going to cut it against Iowa next week.

Indiana:

That 2020 Indiana magic did not carry over into 2021. For much of the 2020 season, it felt like everything was going right for the Hoosiers as they got out to a 6-1 start. In the 2021 opener against Iowa, things did not go well. At all. The Hoosiers were trounced 34-6 and put up only 233 yards of offense in the process. IU quarterback Michael Penix — back from a torn ACL that ended his 2020 season — had two interceptions returned for a touchdown in the first half. Those turnovers allowed Iowa to open up a commanding 31-3 halftime lead.

Boise State:

Boise State was sitting pretty early in its road game against UCF on Thursday night. The Broncos stormed out to a 21-0 lead and held a 24-7 advantage late in the second quarter. But then the wheels fell off. UCF came all the way back and took a 28-24 lead late in the third. Boise would go back in front 31-30 with 8:02 to play, but would end up losing, 36-31. The Broncos combined for minus-25 yards on their first four second-half drives. Nonetheless, they had a chance to take the lead in the final minutes. Instead, QB Hank Bachmeier threw an ill-advised interception in UCF territory and BSU went home with a loss.

Stanford:

Stanford had a brutal offensive performance against Kansas State. The Cardinal had 39 rushing yards on 22 attempts and 194 passing yards on 30 attempts in a 24-7 loss. The only time the Cardinal scored was with 3:16 left in regulation. And that 75-yard scoring drive accounted for 32% of Stanford’s offensive production. That’s not a recipe for success.

With Davis Mills now in the NFL, Stanford played two QBs: Tanner McKee and Jack West. Neither were very impressive. With 12 Power Five opponents on the schedule, this might be a long year for Stanford. Especially if math is a weakness for the coaching staff. It's inexplicable that Stanford didn't go for two to attempt to cut KSU's lead to two possessions after scoring that TD.

Illinois:

That Week 0 shine did not last long for Illinois. A week after upsetting Nebraska, the Illini followed it up by losing 37-30 to UTSA. UTSA is one of the better teams in Conference USA, but it was still a tough dose of reality for Illinois in its first year under Bret Bielema. UTSA jumped out to a 14-0 lead and never let Illinois get closer than three points. The Roadrunners gashed the Illini for 497 yards of offense in the win.

Georgia Tech:

Year 3 of the Geoff Collins era got off to a horrid start in Atlanta as Northern Illinois beat the Yellow Jackets, 22-21. The win was NIU’s first since 2019 after going 0-6 in 2020 and came when Rocky Lombardi threw a pass to Tyrice Richie for a two-point conversion with 38 seconds left. The conversion came after Lombardi hit Clint Ratkovich for a three-yard TD pass. Props to NIU coach Thomas Hammock for going for the win. The Yellow Jackets also appeared to lose QB Jeff Sims to a shoulder injury. With such a tough schedule ahead, this was a brutal way to open the season for GT.

Houston:

The first game of Dana Holgorsen’s third year at Houston looked a lot like what his teams did throughout the first two. The Cougars opened the season by losing 38-21 to Texas Tech — potentially a future Big 12 conference mate. This was a game that Houston led 21-7 at halftime before getting outscored 31-0 in the second half. Houston QB Clayton Tune threw four interceptions including a pick-six that tied the score at 21-21 in the third.

Louisiana Tech:

Louisiana Tech blew its chance to beat an SEC opponent on the road. The Bulldogs led Mississippi State 34-14 with 13:11 to go. They lost, 35-34. MSU proceeded to reel off three consecutive touchdown drives while the La. Tech offense went into a shell. MSU went ahead 35-34 with 3:37 to play, leaving Tech plenty of time to win it. La. Tech advanced to the MSU 30 with just over a minute to go, and then Skip Holtz proceeded to run the ball three straight times, setting up a 46-yard field goal instead of trying to make life easier for his kicker. The result? A miss and a Mississippi State victory. Gross.

USF, Temple and Navy:

These three did not represent the AAC very well in Week 1. USF was trounced 45-0 by NC State. Temple, meanwhile, lost 61-14 to Rutgers. Rutgers! Last but not least, Navy was blown out 49-7 at home by Marshall.

Washington, Tulsa, Colorado State, UNLV, UConn and Vanderbilt:

You all lost to FCS teams. Not good.

[StarDust Bum]

FRIDAY, SEP. 10

KANSAS AT COASTAL CAROLINA (ESPN2, 7:30 P.M.)
Lance Leipold now at KU, after he closed Buffalo career on 30-14-2 spread uptick.
Leipold 8-3-1 as dog with Bulls across same span.
Though KU off 1-7-1 spread mark for Miles LY, 6-14-2 past two seasons, and failed to cover South Dakota opener for Leipold.
Coastal has won and covered vs. Jayhawks past two years and 8-3 vs. spread in breakout 2020.
Tech Edge: Slight to Coastal, based on team trends.

UTEP AT BOISE STATE (FS1, 9:30 P.M.)
Boise entered 2021 on 6-10 spread downturn, though 7-2 last nine vs. line on blue carpet in turnaround from previous spread pattern.
All Harsin numbers; now Avalos. Broncos did slip inside spread at UCF in opener.
Dimel has covered 6 of last 9 for UTEP since LY as modest turnaround could be underway.
Tech Edge: Slight to UTEP, based on team trends.

SATURDAY, SEP. 11

ILLINOIS AT VIRGINIA (ACCN, 11:00 A.M.)
Illini closed Lovie era covered 5 of last 11 away; Bielema teams 21-14-2 as dog since 2014 (Ark & Ill).
Bronco Mendenhall entered 2021 on 10-4 spread uptick, and “over” 19-9 its last 28 games, prior to opening romp past William & Mary.
Cavs now on 8-1 spread uptick at Charlottesville.
Tech Edge: Virginia and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

WESTERN KENTUCKY AT ARMY (CBSSN, 11:30 A.M.)
Army 7-2-1 vs. line last 10 at Michie Stadium for Monken, 5-1 last six as chalk.
WKU sagged to 3-8 vs. line LY (started season 0-6-1 vs. spread), just 3-9-1 vs. points since late 2019.
Though Tops did win and cover at home vs. Army in 2019 (17-8), when WKU was briefly on a surge.
Tech Edge: Army, based on team trends.

OREGON AT OHIO STATE (FOX, 12:00 P.M.)
Ducks 3-2 in rare dog roles the past two+ years for Cristobal, but just 6-13-1 as dog dating to the end of the Helfrich era in 2016.
Interestingly, Buckeyes didn’t cover last 3 at home a year ago after Ryan Day was 6-2 vs. spread previous 8 at Big Horseshoe.
Day only 3-3 vs. spread outside of Big Ten since 2019.
Tech Edge: Slight to Ohio State, based on team trends.

TULSA AT OKLAHOMA STATE (FS1, 12:00 P.M.)
These teams did play one of the handful of non-conf games in 2020 with OSU winning 16-7 but failing to cover.
Cowboys had won and covered handily in previous meetings 2017 & 19.
Gundy however only 2-4 last six as Stillwater chalk.
Tulsa entered 2021 at 11-3 vs. spread last 14 in regular season, before losing opener to UC Davis, though still 7-1 last 8 as reg season dog.
Tech Edge: Tulsa, based on team trends.

MIAMI-OH AT MINNESOTA (ESPNU, 12:00 P.M.)
Fleck entered 2021 on 13-7-2 spread uptick with covers in 5 of last 6 as chalk, and covered as a dog in spirited Gophers effort vs. Ohio State in last week's 2021 opener.
Fleck also 7-2-1 vs. spread with Gophers vs. FBS-level non-Big Ten entering 2021.
Meanwhile after yet another loss (a 15th in a row!) vs. nearby rival Cincinnati last week, the RedHawks have now dropped 12 of their last 13 spread decisions against non-conference foes.
Tech Edge: Minnesota, based on team trends.

PITTSBURGH AT TENNESSEE (ESPN, 12:00 P.M.)
”Johnny Majors Bowl.” Note Heupel was 1-1 SU and vs. line vs. Pitt and Narduzzi while at UCF.
Heupel entered 2021 on 4-10 spread skid to close his era with Knights, and narrow miss of cover in last week's opener vs. BGSU.
Panthers on 10-4 spread run as visitor since mid 2018.
Vols entered 2021 on 3-8 spread skid, all Pruitt.
Tech Edge: Slight to Pitt, based on team trends.

SOUTH CAROLINA AT EAST CAROLINA (ESPN2, 12:00 P.M.)
SC closed the Muschamp/Bobo era by losing and failing to cover its last six games before routing FCS Eastern Illinois in last week's opener.
Gamecocks also dropped last five vs. spread against BCS-level non-SEC foes (2018-19).
If ECU is a dog note 9-5 mark last 15 in role for Pirates, including opening loss to App State in Charlotte.
Tech Edge: Slight to ECU, based on team trends.

FLORIDA AT SOUTH FLORIDA (ABC, 1:00 P.M.)
First shot for USF at Gators since 2010 (Florida won and covered 38-14 at Gainesville) and first time hosting UF in Tampa.
Bulls have actually lost 13 of last 14 outright since late in 2019, and 5-8 last 13 as DD dog.
Dan Mullen only covered 1 of last 6 in 2021 though he was 6-1 vs. spread in reg season against non-SEC in 2018-19, and 8-5 laying DD the past two seasons.
Gators lost cover in final minute vs. FAU in last week's 2021 opener.
Tech Edge: Florida, based on extended trends.

WYOMING AT NORTHERN ILLINOIS (ESPN+, 1:30 P.M.)
Prior to last week's narrow Wyo escape vs. Montana State, Bohl entered 2021 on 16-8 spread uptick, though only 1-3 vs. line outside of Laramie in 2020.
Hammack only 6-13 SU since taking over NIU in 2019, but is off of rousing win at Georgia Tech in 2021 opener last week.
Tech Edge: Slight to Wyoming, based on extended trends.

RUTGERS AT SYRACUSE (ACCN, 2:00 P.M.)
Schiano improved Scarlet Knights to 5-4 vs. line a season ago after 4-8 mark in 2019, all before romp past Temple in last week's 2021 opener.
Still rare chalk for Rutgers, 1-1 in role since last year, and 5-3 since 2016.
Last meeting vs. Cuse in 2012 as these were old Big East rivals.
Babers on 4-15 SU skid since mid 2019 after win at Ohio in opener, and 4-5 last 9 as Carrier Dome dog.
Tech Edge: Rutgers, based on recent trends.

MIDDLE TENNESSEE AT VIRGINIA TECH (ESPN+, 2:00 P.M.)
Blue Raiders have covered 6 of last 8 on road and 8 of last 11 as dog.
Justin Fuente entered 2021 on 4-9 spread skid prior to UNC upset, also 4-7 last 11 as chalk.
Tech Edge: Kentucky, based on ULM woes.

TOLEDO AT NOTRE DAME (PEACOCK, 2:30 P.M.)
The Rocket Men did not play outside of MAC in truncated 2020 slate, covering 3 of 6 after 0-6-1 spread skid down stretch in 2019.
Toledo 2-8 vs. line last 10 vs. non-MAC BCS level foes.
Note Brian Kelly just 1-4 laying DD at South Bend last season, though was 5-2 as home chalk in 2019.
Tech Edge: Slight to Notre Dame, based on team trends.

PURDUE AT UCONN (CBSSN, 3:00 P.M.)
UConn back for more punishment! Picking up where it left off when last seen in 2019, Huskies now 3-28 SU last 31, and Edsall now 7-19 vs. line since 2018.
Huskies 4-6 as Rentsch dog 2018-19.
Purdue closed 2020 dropping last 5 vs. number, but covered 8 of 9 prior, as Brohm continues his streaky pointspread pattern.
Brohm was 0-4 as chalk in 2020 and just 1-7 last 8 laying points, but did win and cover 2021 opener last week vs. Oregon State.
Tech Edge: Slight to Purdue, based on team trends.

BOSTON COLLEGE AT MASSACHUSETTS (NESN, 3:30 P.M.)
Hafley 6-5 SU and vs. line in BC debut LY, though failed to cover both as DD chalk, and Eagles actually 0-4 in role since 2019.
Though Eagles have won and covered vs. Minutemen in 2016 & 2018 and are 14-7 vs. spread reg season away from Chestnut Hill since early 2017.
Walt Bell is 1-16 SU for UMass entering 2021 and just 4-12-1 vs. line, hasn’t been closer than 21 in any of those 16 losses!
Tech Edge: BC, based on UMass negatives.

TEXAS A&M VS. COLORADO IN DENVER (FOX, 3:30 P.M.)
Jimbo Fisher is 9-1 vs. line against non-SEC foes since arriving at A&M in 2018. Also 12-6 vs. spread away from College Station.
Karl Dorrell surprised for a bit in 2020 when CU won and covered first four games, though Buffs just 14-21 vs. spread prior.
CU did cover five straight as Boulder dog before loss to Utah last December 12.
Tech Edge: Texas A&M, based on team trends.

AIR FORCE AT NAVY (CBS, 3:30 P.M.)
Home team has won 8 in a row in this Commander-in-Chief rivalry, and covered 7 of those 8. Force won big 40-6 LY in Colorado.
Mids were 5-1 vs. line at Annapolis in their big 2019 campaign though just 2-4 as host since LY after heavy loss to Marshall in opener.
Tech Edge: Navy, based on series trends.

TEMPLE AT AKRON (ESPN+, 3:30 P.M.)
Temple 4-7 vs. line away for Carey since, 1-3 as DD chalk vs. FBS foes. (That’s a stretch referring to Akron!)
Entering 2021, Zips 3-16 vs. spread since 2019 for Arth, now 3-17 at Auburn blowout loss last week.
Akron 1-8 SU and vs. line as host for Arth, 2-12 as DD dog.
Tech Edge: Temple, based on Akron negatives.

CALIFORNIA AT TCU (ESPNU, 3:30 P.M.)
2018 Cheez-it-Bowl rematch from 10-7 TCU win.
Even in compromised 2020 campaign, Cal covered both as dog, now 7-2 for Wilcox in role since 2019, 18-7 in dog role since 2017.
Patterson covered 5 of last 6 in 2020 and was 4-1 as chalk last season, though Frogs were 5-15-1 as home chalk from 2015-19.
Tech Edge: Cal, based on team trends..

BALL STATE AT PENN STATE (FS1, 3:30 P.M.)
Ball State off of big 7-1 SU mark LY and a bowl win, also covered last five games.
Cards 4-0 as dog LY, and have covered 8 straight getting points!
James Franklin 9-4 vs. spread last 13 vs. non-Big Ten, though just 13-13 as DD chalk since 2017.
Tech Edge: Slight to Ball State, based on team trends.

BUFFALO AT NEBRASKA (BTN, 3:30 P.M.)
Under Leipold prior to this year, Bulls were 8-3-1 as dog from 2017 (not a dog in 2020).
Leipold was also 30-14-2 vs. spread the past four seasons.
Scott Frost on 8-14 spread skid for Huskers, 2-9 last 11 as chalk, also 1-5 vs. points last 6 vs. non-Big Ten.
Tech Edge: Buffalo, based on team trends.

UAB AT GEORGIA (ESPN2, 3:30 P.M.)
UAB only 1-2 as dog in disheveled 2020, and did not cover getting points in 2019 (0-3), but was 9-4 as dog 2018-19 for Bill Clark.
Note however, in the one step-up game vs. Power 5 schools since returning to the field in 2017, UAB is 0-4 SU and vs. line.
Kirby Smart just 3-5 last 8 laying DD at Athens.
Tech Edge: Slight to Georgia, based on team trends.

GEORGIA SOUTHERN AT FLORIDA ATLANTIC (STADIUM, 3:30 P.M.)
Taggart only covered 1 of last 6 on board in 2020 for FAU prior to late cover in last week's 2021 opener at Florida, and Owls 1-3 vs. spread at Boca Raton in 2020.
GSU 8-4 vs. spread against FBS-level foes LY.
This game was originally postponed in 2020 (Sept. 19) before the teams reconvened late in the season (December 5) when GSU won 20-3 at Statesboro.
Tech Edge: GSU, based on team trends.

SOUTH ALABAMA AT BOWLING GREEN (ESPN+, 4:00 P.M.)
Note that USA 4-1 vs. line away vs. last five non-Belt foes.
Entering 2021, BGSU awful 4-13 vs. line the past two seasons for Loeffler though was a bit better 4-4 vs. line at Doyt Perry that span (more problems on road).
Falcs did slip within huge impost in opener at Tennessee.
Tech Edge: USA, based on team trends.

IOWA AT IOWA STATE (ABC, 4:30 P.M.)
Matt Campbell 0-4 SU, 0-3-1 vs. line against Kirk Ferentz.
Cyclones just 6-7 vs. spread last 12 as host.
Iowa 8-1 vs. line last nine vs. non-Big 10, 7-5 last 12 as dog.
Tech Edge: Iowa, based on team and series trends.

HOUSTON AT RICE (CBSSN, 6:30 P.M.)
Intra-city first meeting since 2018. UH has won SU last five meetings, last Rice SU win in 2010, though owls covered in 2018.
Holgorsen yet to mark a mark with Cougs, just 7-14 SU and 3-5 as chalk.
Bloomgren has covered 6 of last 9 for Rice since late 2019, entered 2021 on 14-9 spread uptick, and 12-7 last 19 as dog.
Tech Edge: Rice, based on team trends.

NEW MEXICO STATE AT NEW MEXICO (STADIUM, 7:00 P.M.)
NMSU has split pair vs. line already in 2021, now 9-17 vs. spread since Arizona Bowl win over Utah State at end of 2017, 5-10 vs. spread last 15 as visitor.
Note road team has covered last 3 and is 4-1-1 vs. spread last six in series vs. Lobos.
New Mexico covered 4 of 6 playing all games outside of Albuquerque in 2020.
Tech Edge: New Mexico, based on NMSU negatives.

APPALACHIAN STATE AT MIAMI-FL (ESPNU, 7:00 P.M.)
App was only 4-9 vs. line since last season for Clark after good spread marks prior such as 18-8-1 from 2018-19.
Mounties 6-2 as dog since 2017.
Canes just 7-13 as home chalk since early 2017.
Tech Edge: App State, based on extended trends.

TEXAS STATE AT FIU (ESPN+, 7:00 P.M.)
TSU entered 2020 on 9-5 spread uptick, 3-1 vs. line away lY, if dog here note 8-4 spread mark last 12 getting points.
Bobcats covered 2021 opener vs. Baylor last Saturday.
FIU really had a mess last season with distractions, but Butch Davis nonetheless enters 2021 on a 5-13 spread skid, and no covers last five as host.
Tech Edge: Slight to Texas State, based on recent trends.

N.C. STATE AT MISSISSIPPI STATE (ESPN2, 7:00 P.M.)
Wolfpack 8-4 vs. spread in 2020, and Doeren 5-2 as dog after dropping last 6 and 10 of last 11 vs. number in 2019.
Leach entered 2021 just 9-17 last 26 vs. spread, though did cover 4 of last 5 a year ago.
MSU just 1-4 vs. spread in Starkville last season, 2-8 last 10 vs. line as host.
Tech Edge: NCST, based on recent trends.

EASTERN MICHIGAN AT WISCONSIN (FS1, 7:00 P.M.)
EMU 26-7-1 as dog since 2016, 21-3-1 as road dog!
After Penn State loss, Badgers just 1-5 vs. spread last six at Madison, and Paul Chryst just 12-16 vs. points last 28 on board.
Tech Edge: EMU, based on team trends.

NORTH TEXAS AT SMU (ESPN+, 7:00 P.M.)
Metroplex war! SMU has won and covered last 3 and 5 of last 6 in series.
UNT entered 2021 on 8-23 spread skid dating to early 2018.
Entering 2021, Sonny Dykes on 7-3 spread uptick at home.
Tech Edge: SMU, based on team trends.

LIBERTY AT TROY (ESPN+, 7:00 P.M.)
Entering 2021, Hugh Freeze 17-7 vs. line at Liberty, sort of mirroring his first two years at Ole Miss when 17-9 vs. number.
Flames have covered last 6 and 8 of last 9 away from Lynchburg, and also covered 2021 opener last week vs. Campbell.
Troy 9-14 vs. line past two years for Chip Lindsey, 4-7 vs. line at home, 3-6 as dog.
Tech Edge: Liberty, based on team trends.

MEMPHIS AT ARKANSAS STATE (ESPN+, 7:00 P.M.)
Memphis 4-8 vs. line for Silverfield, also on 6-12 spread slump since mid 2019.
Tigers 0-5 vs. spread away from Liberty Bowl for Silverfield.
Red Wolves have covered last four vs. non-Belt, 6-3 last 9 as dog (all Blake Anderson numbers; now Butch Jones).
Tech Edge: Arkansas State, based on team trends.

TEXAS AT ARKANSAS (ESPN, 7:00 P.M.)
Former most bitter of rivals have only met five times since Hogs bolted for SEC in 1992, two of those in bowls.
Looking forward, this rivalry likely renews almost annually when Horns move to SEC.
Porkers covered first 6 LY and 7 of 10 for Pittman, a dog in each of those games.
Texas closed the Tom Herman era covering just 4 of last 9 away from Austin.
Tech Edge: Slight to Arkansas, based on team trends.

MISSOURI AT KENTUCKY (SECN, 7:30 P.M.)
Dog team has covered last five in series.
Mizzou 4-3 as dog in Drinkwitz debut LY, Mark Stoops 7-3 last 10 as home chalk.
Mizzou had dropped previous 7 vs. line at end of Barry Odom era prior to 2020.
Tech Edge: Slight to Mizzou, based on series road trends.

GEORGIA STATE AT NORTH CAROLINA (ESPN3, 7:30 P.M.)
Panthers covered last 4 in positive 2020 that also included 7-3 spread mark and 6-2 as dog.
Prior to VPI loss in opener, Mack Brown dropped 4 of last 5 vs. line LY with Heels, he’s 6-5-1 vs. line at Chapel Hill since second tour of duty began in 2019.
UNC also 1-4 as DD chalk in 2020 after covering all four chances in role the preceding 2019.
Tech Edge: Georgia State, based on team trends.

WASHINGTON AT MICHIGAN (ABC, 8:00 P.M.)
Not much info on Jimmy Lake’s U-Dub, which only played four times in 2020 (3-1 SU, 1-3 vs. line) prior to shock opening loss to Montana last week.
Chris Petersen was also just 2-5 as dog his last four seasons previous with Huskies.
Harbaugh entered 2021 having dropped 7 of last 8 vs. line and 8-15 vs. number last 23 on board, though successful in last week's opener vs. WMU.
Wolverines no covers four of last five at Big House.
Tech Edge: Washington, based on team trends.

VANDERBILT AT COLORADO STATE (CBSSN, 10:00 P.M.)
Vandy entered 2021 just 7-15 its previous 22 vs. line (all Derek Mason), 1-4 last 5 vs. line non-SEC, all before Clark Lea's debut loss to ETSU.
CSU 2-6 vs. line last eight vs. non-MW after opening loss to SDSU, 2021 but had covered 6 of last 8 at Fort Collins (1-0 for Addazio LY).
Tech Edge: BYU, based on team trends.

SAN DIEGO STATE AT ARIZONA (PAC-12, 10:00 P.M.)
Brady Hoke 4-2 as chalk in his return to Aztec sidelines LY, though failed to cover 2021 opener vs. NMSU.
SDSU also entered 2021 “under” 23-8 last 31 (now 24-8 last 32).
Cats really faded last year for Sumlin, 0-5 SU in abbreviated Pac-12 slate and no covers last four, and 2-10 last 12 on board, though did fight back to cover opener vs. BYU.
Tech Edge: Nevada, based on team trends.

UTAH AT BYU (ESPN, 10:00 P.M.)
Utes have won the last nine meetings and 6-2 vs. spread last 8 vs. BYU.
Cougs 8-3 as dog since 2018, 16-9-1 as dog since 2016, though hasn’t helped much vs. Utes.
Tech Edge: Utah, based on series trends.

UNLV AT ARIZONA STATE (ESPN2, 10:30 P.M.)
Rebs scored big upset their last trip to ASU in 2008.
UNLV was 6-0 vs. line on road vs. Power 5 schools in Tony Sanchez era but Marcus Arroyo 0-7 SU, 1-4-2 vs. spread since LY.
Herm Edwards no covers last seven as home chalk at Tempe.
Tech Edge: UNLV, based on team trends.

STANFORD AT USC (FOX, 10:30 P.M.)
Home team has won and covered last four in series.
David Shaw was on a 3-12 spread skid before covering his last three games of an exciting yet reduced 2020 schedule, then dropped 2021 opener vs. K-State.
Shaw was 1-5 as dog in 2019 but 2-1 in role LY. Shaw was 13-5 as dog from 2011-18.
Note SC just 9-14 last 23 as chalk for Helton.
Tech Edge: Slight to SC, based on series home trends.

HAWAII AT OREGON STATE (FS1, 11:00 P.M.)
Beavs only 6-11 vs. line at home for Jonathan Smith compared to 11-3 on road! Also 13-7 vs. spread last two years.
Hawaii “under” 8-2 since Todd Graham arrived LY.
Tech Edge: Slight to OSU and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

[Udog]

NCAAF
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Week 2
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Trend Report
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[Udog]

NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 2

Friday, September 10



SEPTEMBER 10

NC A&T at Duke
Time: 8:00 pm ET
Dunkel Ratings: NC A&T 54.077; Duke 75.452
Dunkel Line & Total: Duke by 21 ?; 68
Vegas Line & Total: Duke by 19; 55 ?
Dunkel Pick: Duke (-19); Over

North Dakota at Utah State
Time: 9:00 pm ET
Dunkel Ratings: North Dakota 77.547; Utah State 73.683
Dunkel Line & Total: North Dakota by 4; 48
Vegas Line & Total: Utah State by 7 ?; 51 ?
Dunkel Pick: North Dakota (+7 ?); Under