Tuesday's Service Plays Thread

[BettorsChat]

nt

[ItsBillBelichick]

Dr. Bob

Tuesday Game 5 Analysis
DETROIT (-3) 87 L.A. Lakers 82
This has been a very frustrating series for me since I’ve been touting the Pistons as being a better team than the Lakers since before game 1, but I’ve only been able to cash in with one Best Bet so far since the situation has favored the Lakers in each game since their game 1 loss. At least I recommended a play on the Pistons to win the series at 5 to 1 odds, which I posted along with my game 1 Best Bet analysis. The line is starting to catch up to reality, as Detroit is now favored by 3 points. However, my ratings favor the Pistons by 6 points with Malone hurt and by 7 ½ points if I used each team’s playoff games only. The Lakers once again have the situation on their side, as they qualify in a decent 110-64-7 ATS bounce-back situation, but they don’t qualify in the best part of that situation and it’s only worth 1.8 points. Los Angeles is also just 16-35 ATS in road games this season, including 3-7 ATS in the post-season. With the situation favoring the Lakers not as strong as it’s been in recent games, I can at least lean a bit with the Pistons tonight – although they only have a 54% chance of covering a 3 point spread.

[scraper]

WinOnBaseball.com - Tuesday - 6/15/04

Welcome to our first annual service free trial!

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-- All plays with analysis, along with current and past season records, will be updated weekly on the "Records" page of our website.

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Season record: 124-136 -24.83 UNITS

Lines from Pinnacle current as of 9:58pm Pacific on 06/14/04.

Six plays for Tuesday:

HOU (MILLER) -113 over CHC (Zambrano) - 1 UNIT - 5:05pm Pacific
The Chicago Sun Times has reported that Zambrano was wearing a huge icepack on Sunday to try to alleviate pain in his right shoulder. This comes amidst concerns of a Zambrano breakdown, due to Dusty's consistent overuse of him. Houston has the bats to take advantage of any injury Zambrano may have. Miller looked good in his last outing, in which he seemed to rectify control problems he had in his previous starts.

OVER 9 CHW (GARLAND)/FLA (BURNETT) +101 - 1 UNIT - 4:05pm Pacific
Garland's low ERA prior to his last start was not indicative of his skill level, and he was promptly roughed up for 10 runs in his last start. His dominance rate does not reveal a very good pitcher, so I think the Marlins will be able to score off of him. Burnett has been very shaky since his return from the DL, and given his injury, it will probably take some time for him to round into his previous shape. An offense like the Sox should be able to take advantage of a pitcher bouncing back from a major injury.

MIN (SANTANA) -114 over Mon (Day) - 1 UNIT - 4:05pm Pacific
Santana dominated in his last start, so I think he may have finally turned the corner. He looked very good in his previous three, but one bad inning in each of those starts made those outings look bad. He should dominate the Montreal lineup, who are hitting .224 against lefties.

UNDER 7.5 MIN (SANTANA)/MON (DAY) -119 - 1 UNIT - 4:05pm Pacific
Montreal should have a very tough time scoring while Santana is in there. Flyball pitchers like Santana are not good matchups at this stadium, but Montreal doesn't have the lineup to take advantage of that. He is backed up by a solid bullpen as well. Day has given up more than 3 ER in just two of his twelve starts, so he has been very consistent. I expect Minnesota to win a low scoring game.

OVER 10 DET (BONDERMAN)/PHI (POWELL) -105 - 1 UNIT - 4:05pm Pacific
Powell is nothing more than a journeyman, as he has bounced around the league for a few years now. He has posted some nice numbers a Triple-A this year, but he's coming off the DL, and has never proven himself at this level. Detroit's bats have stayed pretty hot, and they have performed better on the road, so I expect them to be able to hit Powell. Bonderman has been roughed up as well, and Philly's offense is starting to look scary good.

OVER 9 OAK (ZITO)/STL (MORRIS) +104 - 1 UNIT - 5:10pm Pacific
Morris has been very disappointing this year, even in his victories. His velocity has been down, causing him to give up HRs at an alarming rate. He already has given up 19 HRs. His K/9 is also down, and with the runners he lets on base, his ERA could very easily be much higher than it is. Oakland's offense has been on a tear lately, averaging 11.8 runs per game in their last six. Zito has been up and down, and I don't expect him to have an "up" game against this lineup.

[mary]

ALEX SMART


Sakatchewan Roughriders vs Toronto Argos/UNDER 49 -CFL- JUNE 15- 7:30 PM ETThe Roughriders I beleive have all the components for a championship team in 2004. The club has solid trio of quarterbacks with veterans Nealon Green and Henry Burris and youngster Rocky Butler calling signals. Sask also has a proven receiver and solid offensive line, its defense is among the CFL's best and the kicking game is one of the CFLs most proficient. With that said they will be playing a Toronto squad that many are touting as a potential Grey Cup contender. Coach Mike (Pinball) Clemons Argos also boast some impressive QBs in Damon Allen and Marcus Brady and their defense looks to be much improved. With their secondary being rock solid. The only caveat will once again be on the injury front as the Argos have had an array of walking wounded already this season and over the past few seasons injuries have hampered their progress as a team .Bottom line: Despite all of the offensive fireworks both teams posses I still expect these two Grey cup contenders to play a closely contested defensive affair here tongiht. Note: The Last 4 games in this series dating back to the 2001 season in Toronto have gone UNDER the set Total. Average total ppg was 32.2 over that span.

[Iceyone]

***********

Shawn - ***********
Seattle@Milwaukee

Seattle rides into Beer country off an impressive 3 game sweep of les spos. In the last 9 games overall Seattle starting pitching is boasting a 1.95ERA which is almost unheard of over that kind of span for any team in 2004. Milwaukee has lost Santos's last 3 home starts and Seattle is 6-2 in there last 8 overall. In the last 10 games Seattle is hitting .270 vs right handed pitching while Milwaukee is hitting at a .243 clip vs righties.

Look for Freddie to be in fine form vs the habitual strikeout hitters in Milwaukee. He has an impressive .239BAA overall and .222BAA vs a heavy left handed hitting club. Santos on the other hand has a .347BAA vs righties and has a 1.55whip this season. The insertion of Hiram Bocachica has been a major addition to the lackluster Mariner offense.

Recommended play:

Seattle -123 over Milwaukee

[BettorsChat]

Iceyone,

They spammed my site with theirs etc. I also notice that you post plays over there, but not here. Why not?

[Iceyone]

Bettorschat

I only post "my" plays over there, I suck at capping baseball, so, figure that until I can do it like football and cbb and actually show a profit i would use their board to keep track of w/l of my stuff. OK, no worries, I won't post any of their picks anymore. I just happen to buy their stuff every now and then.

GL

[BestHandicapper]

Jimmy Spats

Been on fire at procappers.com


Plays for Tuesday are:

25* Dodgers
25* Expos
25* Pirates


Don't know his NBA, just been playing his baseball.

$500 per game since Thursday, guy has me up more than $4K with great dogs.

[Silk]

Looking for:

Texas Sports Wire
Animal

Thanks

[scraper]

Net Prophet

MLB:

Minnesota (Santana) -115 over Montreal (Day)
Atlanta/Kansas City UNDER 9 -120
Oakland (Zito) +110 over St. Louis (Morris)

[caper]

Net Prophet for Tues 6/15:

MLB:

Minnesota (Santana) -115 over Montreal (Day)
Atlanta/Kansas City UNDER 9 -120
Oakland (Zito) +110 over St. Louis (Morris)

NBA/CFL:

PASS

JRM/THE PROPHET

nonigoji--note corrected Minny price

[mary]

please post langdon and Gateway Sports ---thankyou

[savage1]

Sean Michaels(its funny-he hasn't bragged about his two whore lady friends in a while) Lakers, Montreal, Mets, Seattle,Oakland, and Arizona-all rated the same I guess.
ps Maybe in order to be politically correct, I should refer to the "ladies" as high classed and expensive call girls( they are still whores). :D

[Spark]

BOB G

74- 40 65% +53.5

2*-SD

San Diego -165 over Tampa Bay


Padres played very well against the Yanks and should have won the series. SD is 8-2 in Lawerence’s last 10 starts. Tampa is bad on the road going 7-19 this year. Tampa is 1-3 in Hendrickson's last four road starts. SD pounds lefties with a average over .300 on the year.

[Spark]

JCD Sports on a 34-15 run (69%) over their last 49 free picks!!
JCD Sports now 64-39 (63%) over their last 102 free picks.

Today’s Free Pick in MLB: Los Angeles -125 (Lima) over Baltimore (Cabrera)

Baltimore is 1-3 in Cabrera last 4 starts.

In their last 10 games verses right handed pitching, LA is batting .307 while Baltimore is struggling batting only .224.

This game could get ugly early, similar to Cleveland’s blowout yesterday.