Sunday's Service Plays & Request Thread

[camaro]

need BIG AL"S

looking for BIG AL'S and any plays on ARENA GAME For Today.

[drugstuntman]

Animal by request - looking for Ben Burns total of month

MLB - 1:15 ET
Colorado Rockies at Tampa Bay Devil Rays

3* Tampa Bay

Earlier this week I used the Yankees on the run-line going against Jeff Fassero. The Yanks failed to get the job done winning 2-1. Let's see if Fassero can do it again making his 2nd start in five days. Before last Tuesday, his two previous starts were on April 24th and May 29th. Tampa Bay has very quietly won 15 of their last 21 games. Colorado has lost seven
straight and 9/10. The Rockies have lost six straight and 14/16 on the road. Colorado is 13-36 against right-handed starters; 0-5 in inter-league play; 3-13 as a road dog of +150 or less; and 1-10 against AL East teams the last three years. Dewon Brazelton makes his debut today and unfortunately, the Devil Rays are 1-8 in his last nine starts. But that wasn't the 2004 edition of Tampa Bay or a team that has probably ever won 15 of 21 games. Plus it doesn't hurt us with Chris Guccione as the scheduled home plate umpire. Home teams are 53-33 the last three years with Guccione calling balls and strikes.

[govjim]

Hoopsie's 6% NBA PLAYOFF GAME OF THE YEAR (NBA FINALS GAME 4):
# 707 Los Angeles Lakers +2.5 (-130) over Detroit Pistons
RESTRICTED to Los Angeles +2.5 (-130) ON THE FULL POINT BUY.
Please Buy the FULL Point on the Lakers to +2.5 (-130) for This Release.
Please Invest to WIN 6% of Bankroll. (9:07 PM EDT Tip Off)
Detroit Leads 2004 NBA Finals Best of Seven Series 2-1 (National TV ABC)

[mary]

3star

texsptwire ------------sf giants---verified

[Truth]

I just dont understand why VSS/Sandy (sorry if I got name wrong) always says lay -130 on EVERY NBA game. That makes no sense to me as a gambler and to recommend that on a GOY seems absurd. I am not knocking their pick(s) I am just saying that is terrible money mgt to always lay -130. We all know that the 52-53% goes up dramatically when you have to lay -130 on every pick. Besides what is the point of wanting your paying customers do buy extra vig every time?

[LVegasSptsGroup]

hey savage i call same phone number Sean Michaels picked Pistons -1.5 did he change his pick on the phone

[savage1]

LVegas-I called the number again, and you are RIGHT-he changed to the Pistons.
Last night when I called, he LOVED the Lakers-just what you want-a "non -wavering" capper who knows which side is going to cover.
I wonder if Lakers cover, he will claim it as a win, saying that is what you got IF you called early Sunday.
ps Maybe Sean is trying to be a politician and please everyone. :D

[LVegasSptsGroup]

4breakout what's the east coast comp line #

[LVegasSptsGroup]

your funny savage

[LVegasSptsGroup]

Bob Balfe

Regular-Pistons

[LVegasSptsGroup]

Plus10Club Rob Crowne

Rob Crowne
Today's Pick: PISTONS OVER 167
DETROIT/LA OVER 167

The baseball record is 11-9, +$373 based on a flat $100 risked on every selection for the comeback win at the odds. (Example: On a 2-1 favorite the risk is $100 for a comeback win of $50.) The record of all picks, including basketball sides and totals, baseball sides and totals, hockey sides and totals, and football sides and totals since we started here at the Plus10 Club stands at 303-251. You know it's true because you were able to play every winner along with me.You've been able to monitor me in the best way of all -- with your bank account!
==============================
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NOTICE: The picks here are based on lines and information available 2-10 hours before the games start. Many things can happen between the time of the pick and game time that could cause us to eliminate or change any selection here. Some of the events which may cause a selection to change include important injury or other information received after the pick is made, later line moves, or a later play from the syndicate group we follow that is opposite the pick given here. Every effort will be made to give selections here that are less likely to change. Nevertheless, it can happen. If you wish to be updated based on the latest information before game time, you can subscribe to our late phone service by calling (718) 850-2866.
========================
TODAY'S REPORT

Sorry. I forgot Prime Rule of Sports Betting #1 yesterday, to wit:
NEVER TRUST CANADIANS.

Toronto led 2-0 from the 1st inning to the 9th. Not content, the sneaky SOB's went to the bull pen, pulled out their hidden weapons of mass destruction, and immediately blew themselves up. At least I was smart enough to play them small.

Today, we're going to basketball. I wrote an article on an erroneous handicapping analysis you will see all over for Game 5 if Detroit wins Game 4. The article got up here late yesterday, so I left it up in case you missed it.

As I say in the article (below), the Lakers have a great coaching staff, and should eventually solve Detroit's defense. You can't hold Shaq and Kobe down forever. At least I hope not, or the pick today is in trouble.

During the regular season, playing at Detroit, these two ended with a score of Detroit 106-99. That's 39 points above today's total! What these two had the ability to do once, they can do again.

The Lakers and Kobe and Shaq were all embarrassed in the last game. They will be focused today, and Detroit may be overconfident. That may or may not mean that the Lakers win, but defense takes effort. Just a small let down from Detroit will mean a higher scoring game, and adjustments by the Lakers will also mean a higher scoring game. The Lakers tried matching Detroit's defense in the last game, with disastrous results. In this game, they should emphasize their superior offensive prowess.

Expect to see some big time adjustments from the Lakers, and a good deal more points as the Detroit defense is caught unprepared.

You can never bet big, however, until you know something for sure, and the above analysis is probably correct but there are many assumptions in it, so we're keeping the play small.

FALLACIOUS HANDICAPPING
The Lakers are starting to look like toast. They were over-rated from the start. I told Crowne Club members to take the +550 in the series secure in the knowledge that even if LA won the series, the Pistons were the best play based on the odds. There is no way they should have been almost 6-1 underdogs, as they have now shown.

The Lakers may still pull out the series win. Their coaching staff is brilliant and might solve Detroit's defense eventually. If you are going to bet on the Lakers to win one at Detroit, that is the only reason to do so.

If Detroit wins the next game, however, I expect to see the following "100% winning situation" (until you bet it) to appear in numerous places. Here's the reasoning you will see from many handicappers who should know better:

It is very difficult to win three games in a row in the Finals, even at home. No team in a 2-3-2 series has ever won all three middle games on their home court. Detroit has won the first two out of the three games, so bet against them in the third game.

As I said at the start, despite the fact that you may see that sort of reasoning repeatedly for Game 5 if the Pistons win game 4, it is fallacious. There is absolutely no valid reason why a team should not or cannot win the three middle games at home. It does not happen often for two reasons:

1. When teams are closely matched, it is difficult to win 3 out of 3 anywhere, but of course, not impossible. Games between closely matched teams will often be true pick'em affairs with each game being decided by the luck of the game. It is not surprising when a coin flip does not result in 3 heads in a row. The odds against three heads in a row are 7-1, and the odds in favor of not getting 3 heads in a row are 6 out of 8 or an odds-on 1-3. So, is it suprising that a 7-1 shot has not come in over the 1-3 shot? Hardly.

2. When the two teams are not evenly matched, but the team with the home court edge is dominant, it equally is not surprising that the weaker team does not win three games in a row, even at home. The home court creates some advantage, but not an insurmountable advantage by the better team.

3. When the team that is the home team is the significantly better team, the series may not go a full three games at their home court. But for the luck of a 3 point shot with 2 seconds to go, Detroit almost pulled off two wins at LA. If they had done so, then we could easily see Detroit win their first two at home and the third game would not be played. Despite the fact that there was no third game, the statistic that no team has won three at home would be padded.

There is only one playoff series every year. As a result, the statistic that no team has won all three middle games is not long term. Even if it were a long term statistic, however, it has two additonal problems:

a. Unless there is some valid reason why any team playing three games at home has a disadvantage, or any team playing 3 games on the road has an advantage, the results of games in other years between other teams bears no reasonable relationship to the results of the Lakers and the Pistons this year.

It is similar to saying you have watched the table and no shooter has crapped out in 15 rolls, therefore it's a 100% situation that the shooter will not crap out on this roll. Nonsense. The dice have no memory, and unless they are weighted or shaved, there is no reasonable relationship between this roll and the prior rolls.

b. Even if there were some advantage to any team playing 3 games on the road, or some disadvantage to any team playing 3 games at home, and even if it might therefore be valid to bet against the home team winning all three middle games at home, that bet would only be valid before all three middle games start.

Once the home team has won the first two games, a statistic that includes home teams that lost the first game and home teams that lost the second game are completely invalid. The only valid statistic would be the number of times a team that won two games wins the third, and then only if there some common factor connecting the results of the prior teams in other years to Detroit this year. ( I know of no such connection ). If that connection doesn't exist, we get right back to the Law of Independent Results (The dice have no memory ).

The Lakers may win the 4th game, or even the 5th game, but if they do it won't be because no other team has ever won all three middle games. Once Detroit wins 2 at home, the likelihood that they will continue to win and that the Lakers can't solve the Piston defense increases. As a result, the Pistons have a higher probability of winning the third game because of the prior two wins, not a lesser probability. The trend for the Pistons at 2-0 is more important to this year's result than what happened long ago and far away.

.The balance in the offshore account now stands at +$481. We started the account with $50, and we're trying to see how rich we can become before the bookmaker chases us away. (He's not doing much chasing yet, but don't worry, he will.) For today we're risking $11 to win $10 on the Lakers over 167.

To get more winners FREE ON TAPE call the CROWNE CLUB COMPLINE at (714) 676-2000. Our office number is (718) 850-2866

[LVegasSptsGroup]

Frank Rosenthal (LEFTY) Ace

*** ACES RATING KEY FOR MEMBERS ***
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NBA CHAMPIONSHIP FINALS
OVER 167 SB++
?

[4breakout]

Originally posted by LVegasSptsGroup
4breakout what's the east coast comp line #

east coast comp line 313-438-2270

[ItsBillBelichick]

Tallahassee Syndicate Sports

NBA Best Bet:
Detroit Pistons -1.5 (Game of the Week)

From another forum.

GL

[camaro]

BIG AL'S??????????

Anyone got BIG AL'S NBA BLOWOUT TONITE????