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Net Prophet for Sat 6/12:
MLB:
Kansas City (George) +126 over NY Mets (Leiter)
Oakland (Redman) -174 over Pittsburgh (Vogelsong)
Atlanta (Thompson) +150 over Chicago WS (Loaiza)
St. Louis (Carpenter) -130 over Texas (Drese)
Seattle/Montreal UNDER 7' -110
NASCAR Busch Series:
Will update on Saturday morning/early afternoon. Race is Saturday night at Nashville.
JRM/THE PROPHET
nonigoji
Burnin' Media To The Max!
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WinOnBaseball.com - Saturday - 6/12/04
Welcome to our first annual service free trial!
-- WinOnBaseball handicaps Major League Baseball exclusively.
-- All plays with analysis, along with current and past season records, will be updated weekly on the "Records" page of our website.
-- All records will be documented at National Sports Monitor (*********.com)
-- NEXT UPDATE will be sent before 6:00am Pacific on Sunday, June 13th.
Season record: 118-131 -25.36 UNITS
Lines from Pinnacle current as of 10:36pm Pacific on 06/11/04.
Five plays for Saturday:
OVER 10.5 SD (TANKERSLEY)/NYY (LIEBER) +105 - 1 UNIT - 1:05pm Pacific
Tankersley has looked good in his two starts, but those were against Milwaukee. His downfall has always been his control, as he's been known to walk a lot of batters. New York's lineup can take advantage of that much better than Milwaukee's. Lieber has been struggling, and San Diego's lineup has performed well against groundball pitchers like him.
UNDER 8.5 FLA (PENNY)/DET (ROBERTSON) -118 - 1 UNIT - 4:05pm Pacific
Penny has been pitching at a high level all year long. He got beat against the Mets his last time out, but he always seems to have bad luck against them. The team gave him an extra day off, so he should be strong. Robertson has been pitching better than his ERA would indicate. If you throw out two disastrous starts against the Angels, his ERA would be in the mid 2's. His strikeout rate has been very impressive. The Florida lineup as a whole performs worse against lefties.
UNDER 9 ATL (THOMSON)/CHW (LOAIZA) -109 - 1 UNIT - 4:05pm Pacific
Not counting his last start (threw only 25 pitches due to rain), Thomson has pitched 7 innings in his last three starts. This is important, as Thomson has always had problems with stamina. Over that span, he has given up only 2 ER. A quality righty like him should fare well against the righty dominated Sox lineup. Loaiza's stuff should be hard to handle against a lineup that hasn't really faced him.
STL (CARPENTER) -124 over Tex (Drese) - 1 UNIT - 5:05pm Pacific
Drese sports a 2.37 ERA at Arlington. I'm inclined to think that this is an aberration, as he had an ERA over 7 at home last year. Moreover, his road ERA is double his home ERA, so something is wrong with that picture. Chances are that his home ERA will begin to inflate as it begins to normalize. The Cardinal lineup can more than handle their own against a groundballer like Drese, and I think they can start pumping up his home ERA. Carpenter has been excellent, and he's reached a point where a line like this seems like a bargain given his defense playing behind him, the bullpen, and offensive support. Pujols may play as DH, which will obviously help, but I'm not counting on it.
OVER 9.5 CHC (RUSCH)/ANA (COLON) +106 - 1 UNIT - 7:05pm Pacific
Colon has pitched poorly in his last 8 or 9 starts. He could be hiding an injury, as his poor spell started at around the same time he was complaining of back stiffness. His velocity has been down, as he hasn't been hitting his usual mid-upper 90s on the radar gun anymore. Rusch has started off pretty well, but he doesn't have good stuff, so I expect him to fall back to Earth some. Garrett Anderson back in the lineup will help the Angels tremendously. Both teams should be able to score fairly easily in this one.
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Dunkel Index - Saturday
Dunkel Index - Sat 6/12
National League
Houston (Oswalt) 10.46 (1) Milwaukee* (Capuano) 9.68
Interleague
Boston* (Wakefield) 9.97 (1/2) Los Angeles (Weaver) 9.37
San Francisco (Hermanson) 9.84 (1/2) Baltimore* (Lopez) 9.67
Baltimore* (Bedard) 10.01 (1/2) San Francisco (Lowry) 9.84
New York Mets (Leiter) 10.10 (1 1/2) Kansas City* (George) 8.41
Toronto* (Halladay) 9.60 (1/2) Arizona (Good) 9.11
New York Yankees* (Lieber) 10.64 (1/2) San Diego (Tankersley) 10.34
Oakland* (Redman) 12.56 (4 1/2) Pittsburgh (Vogelsong) 7.92
Tampa Bay* (Bell) 10.04 (1) Colorado (Estes) 9.05
Cincinnati (Van Poppel) 10.65 (1/2) Cleveland* (Elarton) 10.49
Florida (Penny) 10.53 (1/2) Detroit* (Robertson) 10.05
Chicago White Sox* (Loaiza) 9.77 (1/2) Atlanta (Thomson) 9.63
Philadelphia (Millwood) 10.22 (1) Minnesota* (Silva) 9.38
St. Louis (Carpenter) 11.08 (1) Texas* (Drese) 10.23
Seattle* (Moyer) 10.24 (1) Montreal (Vargas) 9.36
Chicago Cubs (Rusch) 10.05 (1) Anaheim* (Colon) 9.29
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