need your opinion on this

[hundy]

i'm thinking about taking a chance and making two rather large bets tonight on the heavy favorites, i know baseball is a marathon and anyone can beat anyone on any given night, i also tend to shy away from -180 or bigger favorites in baseball but i'm liking:

Oakland -240
Yankees -200

Oakland has been red hot and scoring a lot of runs, Hudson is money in the bank and Pittsburgh is coming off a high-scoring double-header which they dropped both and now they have to travel west to play a hot team with a tired bullpen. If Oakland can jump on the Pirates and score early and often this should be over early.

The Yanks are starting to hit like the Yankees of old and should score a bundle of runs off Valdez. The only thing that scares me about this game is I don't have 100% trust in Mussina. He's ERA is rather high and teams have been scoring off him this year. If the yanks have the lead going into the bullpen innings I like my chances because they are solid, however if the Padres are able to score early on Mussina it puts the Yanks offense in a pressure situation where they have to match runs with San Diego, they have been put in this situation a lot this year.

Sorry this is a little long but would like to know your thoughts, thanks!

[tommyh893]

the yanks are probably a stronger pick. i think the pirates may steal one from the a's tonight. go with what you think is best just be careful.

[Kaptain]

hundy

Just my take on this...you say put up 440 to win 200..NO WAY

You both to hit to come out...NO VALUE here...Despite big odds, chances are still 50/50, co relate that into return value and you have a NO PLAY...

Any Gambler will tell you to stay away from hi line plays...You may luck up and hit both, odss of hitting one is bad enough, couple this with another one, and you've decreased your odds of winning..

Ordinarily I don't try and tell people how to bet, but in this case, you're getting my solicited opinion..
Yanks 5.6 RPG...BA 266..BP ERA 3.38 Mussina ERA 4.6 WHIP 1.4
Pads 4.5...............267..............3.27.Eaton..... .......5.6...........1.3

Do you see a significant enough difference to warrant a -200 line...I don't, If you do, go for it..

Pitt 4.5.....276...3.17...Benson..5.31....1.6
Oak.5.0.....270....4.06..Hudson..2.8......1.2

Some favor Pitts, most (Hudson) favors Oak...Ask your self this question, is the difference enough to warrant a -240 line...Hudson pitching good, conversely Pitt been hitting good..

Just my take...LOL what ever you do...Capt TOF

[hundy]

thanks for the input kmann

i was stung earlier this year when i played a -200 and -220 fave in the same day, BOTH LOST!!!!....i may just parlay the two and look for a few other games i can get better value with, your points are well-taken, i was looking for someone to talk me out of this, thanks again and GL to you tonight

[Kaptain]

hundy

1/2 a unit parlay...go for it...thats a good value...return on your investment....TOF...also you won't be kicking your own ass if they both hit, for not playing them...:D

[wayne1218]

I won't lay anything over -150. Once in awhile if it's a small card i might but even then i would probably play the run line instead. Vegas makes all their money off the juice alone in bases. I try not to give them any and whether it's a parlay or a run line wager, i just try to get close to or better than even money on my wagers. A 2-3 or 4-4 night can still be profitable without taking the hit from that big favorite losing.

GL!