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Baseball Tid-Bits :
Compiled up to May 21st.
Over/Under Trends With
Pitchers Leads to Profits :
One of our favorite things to look at when handicapping MLB totals is the Over/Under record for the starting pitchers that day. Of course, there are other factors that determine the total of a game such as offense and bullpens, but if a starting pitcher is at 70 percent or better for the 'over' or for the 'under', chances are that his pattern will continue.
We are now about six weeks into the 2004 baseball season, and already there are some patterns emerging. For example, there are currently ten major league pitchers that have a minimum of five 'overs' on the young season and an over percentage of 83.3 percent or higher. Here is a list of these starters, along with the average combined total score in all their starts:
2004 OVER RECORDS thru May 16 (Average Total Score in parenthesis)
1 - J. Washburn, Ana, 8-0, 100% (13.3)
2 - D. Lowe, Bos, 7-0, 100% (11.9)
3 - N. Cornejo, Det, 5-0, 100% (15.2)
4 - M. Buehrle, CWS, 8-1, 88.9% (12.3)
5T - B. Lawrence, SD, 7-1, 87.5% (11.4)
5T - H. Nomo, LA, 7-1, 87.5% (10.9)
7 - B. Tomko, SF, 6-1, 85.7% (11.4)
8T - J. D'Amico, Cle, 5-1, 83.3% (13.4)
8T - J. Gonzalaez, TB, 5-1, 83.3% (11.6)
8T - M. Kinney, Mil, 5-1, 83.3% (13.8)
The cumulative record for the 'over' when these pitchers have taken the mound this season is 63-7, 90.0 percent, with an average combined total score of 12.4 runs per game. Therefore, it behooves us to be on the lookout for when these pitchers start, particularly if the posted total is ten or less, as such a contest would be a prime 'over' candidate. It should be pointed out that Lowe, Tomko and Kinney were also on this list for the 2003 season, so those three starters have more of a long-term track record of being 'over-generators.'
Let us now shift out focus to the better hurlers in the league, as many of them have been rather 'under-friendly!' In fact, as if to be symmetrical, there are also ten pitchers than have recorded at least five 'unders' and have an under percentage of 75 percent of higher. Here is a list of these starters, along with the average combined total score in all their starts:
2004 UNDER RECORDS thru May 16 (Average Total Score in parenthesis)
1 - B. Penny, Fla, 7-1, 87.5% (5.9)
2T - S. Schoeneweis, CWS, 6-1, 85.7% (7.6)
2T - T. Ohka, Mon, 6-1, 85.7% (5.1)
2T - A. Leiter, NYM, 6-1, 85.7% (4.9)
2T - F. Garcia, Sea, 6-1, 85.7% (5.3)
2T - Z. Day, Mon, 6-1, 85.7% (5.6)
7 - L. Hernandez, Mon, 7-2, 77.8% (6.6)
8T - D. Wells, SD, 6-2, 75.0% (6.9)
8T - K. Rogers, Tex, 6-2, 75.0% (9.6)
8T - J. Kennedy, Col, 6-2, 75.0% (8.5)
The cumulative 'under' record for these starters so far is 62-14, 81.6 percent, with a low average combined total score in all their starts of 6.7 runs per contest. The strategy here would be to seek out any game involving these starters that has a posted total of nine or more, as the under would be a strong selection in this situation. As we said earlier, another component of a game total is offense, and the fact that there are three Montreal Expos on this list is more of a testament to weak run support. Still, these pitchers need to pitch reasonably well to keep their games under even when their own teams are not scoring, so we will not disregard Ohka, May and Hernandez simply because they pitch for Montreal.
G.L.
***MMM***
:cool: :cool: :cool:
Update yourself , your more than half way home (
)
Over/Under Trends With
Pitchers Leads to Profits :
One of our favorite things to look at when handicapping MLB totals is the Over/Under record for the starting pitchers that day. Of course, there are other factors that determine the total of a game such as offense and bullpens, but if a starting pitcher is at 70 percent or better for the 'over' or for the 'under', chances are that his pattern will continue.
We are now about six weeks into the 2004 baseball season, and already there are some patterns emerging. For example, there are currently ten major league pitchers that have a minimum of five 'overs' on the young season and an over percentage of 83.3 percent or higher. Here is a list of these starters, along with the average combined total score in all their starts:
2004 OVER RECORDS thru May 16 (Average Total Score in parenthesis)
1 - J. Washburn, Ana, 8-0, 100% (13.3)
2 - D. Lowe, Bos, 7-0, 100% (11.9)
3 - N. Cornejo, Det, 5-0, 100% (15.2)
4 - M. Buehrle, CWS, 8-1, 88.9% (12.3)
5T - B. Lawrence, SD, 7-1, 87.5% (11.4)
5T - H. Nomo, LA, 7-1, 87.5% (10.9)
7 - B. Tomko, SF, 6-1, 85.7% (11.4)
8T - J. D'Amico, Cle, 5-1, 83.3% (13.4)
8T - J. Gonzalaez, TB, 5-1, 83.3% (11.6)
8T - M. Kinney, Mil, 5-1, 83.3% (13.8)
The cumulative record for the 'over' when these pitchers have taken the mound this season is 63-7, 90.0 percent, with an average combined total score of 12.4 runs per game. Therefore, it behooves us to be on the lookout for when these pitchers start, particularly if the posted total is ten or less, as such a contest would be a prime 'over' candidate. It should be pointed out that Lowe, Tomko and Kinney were also on this list for the 2003 season, so those three starters have more of a long-term track record of being 'over-generators.'
Let us now shift out focus to the better hurlers in the league, as many of them have been rather 'under-friendly!' In fact, as if to be symmetrical, there are also ten pitchers than have recorded at least five 'unders' and have an under percentage of 75 percent of higher. Here is a list of these starters, along with the average combined total score in all their starts:
2004 UNDER RECORDS thru May 16 (Average Total Score in parenthesis)
1 - B. Penny, Fla, 7-1, 87.5% (5.9)
2T - S. Schoeneweis, CWS, 6-1, 85.7% (7.6)
2T - T. Ohka, Mon, 6-1, 85.7% (5.1)
2T - A. Leiter, NYM, 6-1, 85.7% (4.9)
2T - F. Garcia, Sea, 6-1, 85.7% (5.3)
2T - Z. Day, Mon, 6-1, 85.7% (5.6)
7 - L. Hernandez, Mon, 7-2, 77.8% (6.6)
8T - D. Wells, SD, 6-2, 75.0% (6.9)
8T - K. Rogers, Tex, 6-2, 75.0% (9.6)
8T - J. Kennedy, Col, 6-2, 75.0% (8.5)
The cumulative 'under' record for these starters so far is 62-14, 81.6 percent, with a low average combined total score in all their starts of 6.7 runs per contest. The strategy here would be to seek out any game involving these starters that has a posted total of nine or more, as the under would be a strong selection in this situation. As we said earlier, another component of a game total is offense, and the fact that there are three Montreal Expos on this list is more of a testament to weak run support. Still, these pitchers need to pitch reasonably well to keep their games under even when their own teams are not scoring, so we will not disregard Ohka, May and Hernandez simply because they pitch for Montreal.
G.L.
***MMM***
:cool: :cool: :cool:
Update yourself , your more than half way home (
)
goes down .
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