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  • Baseball Tid-Bits :

    Compiled up to May 21st.

    Over/Under Trends With
    Pitchers Leads to Profits :


    One of our favorite things to look at when handicapping MLB totals is the Over/Under record for the starting pitchers that day. Of course, there are other factors that determine the total of a game such as offense and bullpens, but if a starting pitcher is at 70 percent or better for the 'over' or for the 'under', chances are that his pattern will continue.

    We are now about six weeks into the 2004 baseball season, and already there are some patterns emerging. For example, there are currently ten major league pitchers that have a minimum of five 'overs' on the young season and an over percentage of 83.3 percent or higher. Here is a list of these starters, along with the average combined total score in all their starts:

    2004 OVER RECORDS thru May 16 (Average Total Score in parenthesis)
    1 - J. Washburn, Ana, 8-0, 100% (13.3)
    2 - D. Lowe, Bos, 7-0, 100% (11.9)
    3 - N. Cornejo, Det, 5-0, 100% (15.2)
    4 - M. Buehrle, CWS, 8-1, 88.9% (12.3)
    5T - B. Lawrence, SD, 7-1, 87.5% (11.4)
    5T - H. Nomo, LA, 7-1, 87.5% (10.9)
    7 - B. Tomko, SF, 6-1, 85.7% (11.4)
    8T - J. D'Amico, Cle, 5-1, 83.3% (13.4)
    8T - J. Gonzalaez, TB, 5-1, 83.3% (11.6)
    8T - M. Kinney, Mil, 5-1, 83.3% (13.8)

    The cumulative record for the 'over' when these pitchers have taken the mound this season is 63-7, 90.0 percent, with an average combined total score of 12.4 runs per game. Therefore, it behooves us to be on the lookout for when these pitchers start, particularly if the posted total is ten or less, as such a contest would be a prime 'over' candidate. It should be pointed out that Lowe, Tomko and Kinney were also on this list for the 2003 season, so those three starters have more of a long-term track record of being 'over-generators.'
    Let us now shift out focus to the better hurlers in the league, as many of them have been rather 'under-friendly!' In fact, as if to be symmetrical, there are also ten pitchers than have recorded at least five 'unders' and have an under percentage of 75 percent of higher. Here is a list of these starters, along with the average combined total score in all their starts:

    2004 UNDER RECORDS thru May 16 (Average Total Score in parenthesis)
    1 - B. Penny, Fla, 7-1, 87.5% (5.9)
    2T - S. Schoeneweis, CWS, 6-1, 85.7% (7.6)
    2T - T. Ohka, Mon, 6-1, 85.7% (5.1)
    2T - A. Leiter, NYM, 6-1, 85.7% (4.9)
    2T - F. Garcia, Sea, 6-1, 85.7% (5.3)
    2T - Z. Day, Mon, 6-1, 85.7% (5.6)
    7 - L. Hernandez, Mon, 7-2, 77.8% (6.6)
    8T - D. Wells, SD, 6-2, 75.0% (6.9)
    8T - K. Rogers, Tex, 6-2, 75.0% (9.6)
    8T - J. Kennedy, Col, 6-2, 75.0% (8.5)

    The cumulative 'under' record for these starters so far is 62-14, 81.6 percent, with a low average combined total score in all their starts of 6.7 runs per contest. The strategy here would be to seek out any game involving these starters that has a posted total of nine or more, as the under would be a strong selection in this situation. As we said earlier, another component of a game total is offense, and the fact that there are three Montreal Expos on this list is more of a testament to weak run support. Still, these pitchers need to pitch reasonably well to keep their games under even when their own teams are not scoring, so we will not disregard Ohka, May and Hernandez simply because they pitch for Montreal.


    G.L.

    ***MMM***

    :cool: :cool: :cool:

    Update yourself , your more than half way home ( )
    " The Wind Does Not Wait For The Tree To Bend "

  • #2
    Not jus TID-BITS,
    But a Mound of information
    G-luck
    Bring-in-it-home

    Comment


    • #3
      trap :

      Thats funny , but if you pay any attention to my posting you cant help but notice that I try hard to help here . But something else is glaring about my prose and that is , I refuse to let people get lazy on me and my reasons are simple . The ole addage about leading horses to the water , but cant make them drink is so true .

      As with Dogs , Horses , and sports in general the same information is available to us that the line-makers use and if you wish to excell you must try and find when they slip-up by ignoring that info. or at least not interpret it correctly . So my aim is to express the info that we all should and can pay attention to in order to swing the odds a little bit more in our favor ( we need it )

      Just to post day-in-and-day-out without at least trying to express why and how holds little or no value to anyone . If we are to gain any advantage at all ........ it will be with knowledge that they use against us at our disposal also and even then we must use it !

      The above has cash many a winner so far this year , but it is starting to flat-line (but just a wee-bit) because they are using it against us and adjusting thier outlooks .

      Waving Magic Wands =


      " Being Informed "

      <> <> <> <>

      G.L.

      ***MMM***

      :cool: :cool: :cool:
      " The Wind Does Not Wait For The Tree To Bend "

      Comment


      • #4
        MMM

        Thanks Darlin' Have printed your info . will keep up with it in upcoming games.

        Comment


        • #5
          Great info MMM. Thanks as always
          1 of 1 Morons

          Comment


          • #6
            Thankyou for sharing this tid bit. All your tid bits are adding up to a big bit! Your insight is immense.
            GL ***MMM***:cool:

            Comment


            • #7
              Thanks MMM that is some great info!

              Comment


              • #8
                Thanks Fellas :

                And I tender this info also :

                Team Win-Loss/ Net Units /Over-Under/ Team Runs /Opp Runs
                ANAHEIM 33-25<> +4<> 32-26<> 5.2<> 4.8
                ARIZONA 23-36<> -17.5<> 34-22<> 4.6<> 5.7
                ATLANTA 29-29<> -1.9<> 24-31<> 4.5<> 4.3
                BALTIMORE 26-28<> -2.3<> 35-17<. 5.5<> 5.8
                BOSTON 34-24<> -2.7<> 30-25<> 5.3<> 4.6
                CHI WHITE SOX 31-25<> +2.7<> 28-27<> 5.6<> 4.6
                CHICAGO CUBS 30-28<> -9.4<> 25-33<> 4.7<> 4
                CINCINNATI 34-25<> +14.9<> 30-29<> 4.7<> 5.1
                CLEVELAND 26-30<> -2.3<> 30-24<> 5.3<> 5.5
                COLORADO 21-37<> -12.8<> 29-26<> 5.3<> 6.3
                DETROIT 26-32<> -0.7<> 27-29<> 5.2<> 5.2
                FLORIDA 33-26<> +0.8<> 24-31<> 4.5<> 4.3
                HOUSTON 32-26<> -9<> 25-31<> 4.9<> 4
                KANSAS CITY 21-34<> -12.5<> 23-30<> 4.4<> 5.5
                LOS ANGELES 30-26<> +0.8<> 26-26<> 4.3<> 4.1
                MILWAUKEE 29-27<> +6.2<> 24-32<> 4.5<> 4.5
                MINNESOTA 32-26<> +1.9<> 26-30<> 4.8<> 4.9
                MONTREAL 18-38<> -17.9<> 20-36<. 2.9<> 4.1
                NY METS 28-30<> -1.4<> 22-30<> 4.2<> 4.1
                NY YANKEES 37-20<> +3.1<> 27-27<> 5.5<> 4.8
                OAKLAND 34-24<> +1.9<> 27-29<> 5<> 4.3
                PHILADELPHIA 30-27<> -3.8<> 26-24<> 5.1<> 4.6
                PITTSBURGH 24-30<> -2.2<> 26-26<> 4.4 <>5
                SAN DIEGO 32-26<> +0<> 25-29<> 4.5<> 4.1
                SAN FRANCISCO 30-29<> -2.5<> 29-22<> 4.7<> 5.2
                SEATTLE 22-36<> -19.6<> 28-30<> 4.1<> 4.7
                ST LOUIS 34-25<> +2.4<> 28-30<> 5.1<> 4.3
                TAMPA BAY 22-34<> -4.9<> 26-25<> 4.1<> 5.2
                TEXAS 31-24<> +9.1<> 20-31<> 5.3<> 4.7
                TORONTO 27-32<> -7.6<> 24-34 <>4.5<> 4.7

                This is all current , and it goes without saying that certain things leap out at us here. Cinn. @ +14.9 , Texas @ +9.1 , Milw. @ + 6.2 , Angels @ +4 , N.Y.Y. @ +3.1 , CWS @ 2.7 , St. Louis @ +2.4 , Minn. & Oakland @ + 1.9 , and L.A. & Minn. @ + 0.8 are the only clubs that seem to give the linesmakers any problems when adjusting for wins .

                On the otherhand , Seattle @ - 19.6 & the Expos @ - 17.6 and Ari. @ - 17.5 are killing thier bankrolls on the loss expectancy , others that hurt them include K.C. @ - 12.5 , Astros @ - 9 , Blue-Jays @ - 7.6 , and T.B. @ 4.9 overall when spot playing them .

                Looking @ O/U you have to be blind not to notice Balt @ 35-17 which brings me to my Total Play of The Day and I dont like leading anyone anywhere , but this one stands out :

                Ari. ( Fossum )
                << @ >>
                Balt. ( Cabreara )

                Low-Down :

                Ari. is 10-1-1 (over) in thier last 12 and a perfect 7-0 in this month plus 6-1 on Thusday games this year & 34-22 overall .

                Balt. is 35-17 overall , after a win they login @ 18-6 , plus 32-14 on grass , 20-8 @ home and heres the kicker 25-9 @ nite !

                Pen Notes :

                Ari. = 5.17 ERA , 1.54 WHIP , 25HR`s , 183 SO`s , 8-11 W-L

                Balt. = 4.27 ERA , 1.49 WHIP , 14 HR`s , 179 SO`s , 8-7 W-L

                ( Note : Road & Home Numbers )

                Starters :

                Ari. ] Fossum = 7.33 ERA , 2.60 WHIP , 0-4 W-L , 5 HR`s & 12 BonB and 19 SO`s , 36 Hits in 23.3 innings .

                Balt. ] Cabrera = 3.90 ERA , 1.49 WHIP , 3-1 W-L , 2 HR`s & 15 BonB and 15 SO`s , 30 Hits in 27.7 innings .

                I guess one can tell where I am going with this , and the k-man should be informed I also called Cleo and got her projection to .

                In a Word Folks :

                " OVER "

                ps - never fail to pay attention to the run-support also , some glaring mismatches there also !

                G.L.

                ***MMM***

                :cool: :cool: :cool:
                Last edited by MemphisMafia; 06-10-2004, 12:02 PM.
                " The Wind Does Not Wait For The Tree To Bend "

                Comment


                • #9
                  More TID-BITS
                  This LADY is an informational
                  GURU .
                  and you dont want us to get LAZY :tongue:
                  G-luck
                  Bring-in-it-home

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Again :

                    I Thank You trap , and I will be posting just one or two more outlooks for the day as I intend to up the ante as it where and start showing only my absolute strongest plays for a while .

                    I am doing this only because of a challenge offered me by a co-hort on the web that has , to be nice about it " called me out " !

                    Info`s wonderful , but shutting-up a wise cracker sometimes can be just plain threapeutic and give great joy to the masses , not counting showing him the error in his ways

                    More before the goes down .

                    G.L.

                    ***MMM***

                    :cool: :cool: :cool:
                    " The Wind Does Not Wait For The Tree To Bend "

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Gonna lay the heavy juice, an put 5 units
                      on the chick!
                      G-luck
                      Bring-in-it-home

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Adding :

                        Los Angeles at Toronto over 9 -120 ***

                        Ishii always seems to pitch with a lot of runners on base as evidenced by his 48 walks in 64.1 ip. His splits on the road are not very good (5.67 era and 1.80 whip). Towers has three unimpressive starts where he has posted a 1.85 whip and 4.60 era. He is also prone to giving up a lot of walks. The Dodgers haven't hit very well this series but do get a crack at another LH tonight whom they seem to hit the best against .287 overall, .298 on the road, and .298 in their last 10. " C.B. Bucknor " is behind the plate tonight and he is a dead over umpire going 10-2 over, w/12.92 rpg in 2004. I'll take a crack on the over in this one.


                        San Francisco at Tampa Bay over 9.5 -120 *****

                        One thing you can count on is that Victor Zambrano will deliver a lot of free passes (55 in 72.1 ip). He constantly has runners on base and throws a lot of pitches going deep in the count most of the time. SF is 17-9 over on the road and 8-1 over in their last 10 and should be able to generate some runs against Zambrano.

                        Rueter has been hit hard in his last three starts (26 hits over 16.0 ip w/5.06 era and 1.94 whip). TB hits better against lefties .279 at home and .262 overall and have gone 7-5 over the total vs. lefties. Barksdale is an over tendency umpire having gone 18-15 over in the last two years. Both of these bullpens are suspect also and I'll take a shot on the over here.


                        Arizona at Baltimore over 10 -125 ********* ( No Kidding )

                        Also lean towards :
                        Mtl/KC under 8.5 in G1 *
                        Phil/CWS over 9.5 -130 *
                        Florida w/Pavano -130 ***

                        G.L.

                        ***MMM***

                        :cool: :cool: :cool:
                        " The Wind Does Not Wait For The Tree To Bend "

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          MMM

                          OK Darlin ' .... Let's have the name of the Mook who called you out ? Is he here in BC ?

                          For sure he has taken a giant leap from good sense.

                          He is in for a trouncing.

                          Poor he ... has chances which are slim and none ... and SLIM left town this mornin'

                          I'm with you Darlin'

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Lady M

                            Lady Cleo called me and said I could ride along on your 30 day program recently purchased...

                            I had 5 games I was eyeballing for OVERS, as you know. I don't play unders. personal preference.

                            Of the 5, you've addressed 3, and most importantly, the Az/Balt game....

                            I'll come out now, and tell you the other 2 I like, so as people don't think I'm riding your plays (solely)...Certainly do weigh them, and when we agree, I usually play...Yesterday we had a couple where we differed.....you 2 unders, me 2 overs---go figure, they were pushes....That LADY CLEO is good:D :D

                            Other 2---Mill/Ana OVER, and Pitt/Tex game 2...as always, kmann...you're the best:cool:


                            Don't make me go Cajun on your Ass!

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              My Dear Guitar Man :

                              Its not a world threatning ordeal , and with the internet and people changing names on a daily basis its hard to tell . Its at a totally different site , and my story was if he wanted to play I would post at Bettorschat because after all ..... it is home !

                              I feel strongly that its a peep that lagged-up second to me at a contest there in a 18 person contest ( 100.00 per ) there 2 years ago covering every sport one could wager and hes been snippy about things and making rude comments over there . No big deal , idiots do these things all the time . Monte , Wiz , Ez , all get bashed from time to time at different places , I tend not to argue with morons cause in the end you look like a village idiot also .

                              But you know I love a man that will carry my honor and hes got a place in my hall of fame , joe-blow on the other hand can take a seat in the hall of shame

                              While Im here I see a Fakers & Under in a big way , granted this gal dont hitem all but she dont miss many either

                              My days going just great ( no O`s in the loss slot yet ) and I hope yours is to , I am up and I need it after the bath I took yesterday :angryfire

                              G.L.

                              ***MMM***

                              :cool: :cool: :cool:
                              " The Wind Does Not Wait For The Tree To Bend "

                              Comment

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