Your views on contrarian plays

[drugstuntman]

Ok, 2 times now in the last week I posted a reply questioning the days biggest side plays. Last night everybody had SF over AZ, and the week before it was Minny over TB. Both times, the trends and numbers backed up the plays and they seemed as I said "too easy". Sure enough - both lost, bit I couldn't resist making a play on the consensus favorite...like many others I'm sure.

I'd be interested in hearing from you guys about how you look at these....anybody do any research or anything of the sort backing contrarian plays? I know it would take some guts to make those plays when the choice seems so easy the other way. I'm not sure if a lot of you are the same, but I read all the posts here, read handicapper write-ups and free picks and then try to gather my own consensus - but I haven't really had overwhelming success.

Thanks!

[GermanBettor]

Well, I could write a book about "too easy to be true" betting situations. Last year in NFL I bet 50% of my bankroll on a bet which was a "lock".... at least that was the my gambling buddies and me rated the game. Sure as hell, we lost with something like 21 points.
I was so mad I smashed a picture in my room. Really bad, but today I can laugh about it.

I would recommend to stay away from these games, or if the gambling virus thrives you to bet, then you should only make a smaller bet on such a game.

In college basketball (this is the only sport where I am qualified to give advice) I use power ratings. These ratings are 90% of what I use to decide what I am going to take. The other 10% are previews and match-ups, but nearly NEVER the bets of other people. If they knew everything, they would be freaking millionaires and own an island.
And using services as fades is not a smart way to make money on the long run, I think. The fading tactic has nothing to do with handicapping, you could make a bet by just throwing a coin, it would end up in the same result.


GB

[bgh2003]

It is sometimes healthy to approach wagers with a contrarian mindset. For example, everybody loves the Yankees/Orioles over tonight. The total opened at 10.5, the books juiced the over up to -130, then bumped the line to 11, and yet people are still taking the over. Touts at sites across the internet are screaming about this being the "total of the month," etc.

You look at the opulent casinos along the Vegas strip and think, wait a second, it can't be this easy. So you look for reasons to take the under. And sometimes you find them: pitching ERAs, the starting time of the game, motivation of either team, meaning of the game, weather. That's a smart contrarian approach--being aware of when the public is totally on one side of a game, and looking for reasons to go the other way.

What amuses me is observing people (and there are a few of them here) who simply fade. They take the under tonight in New York not because their handicapping tells them to do so, but because they will look like a genius if the under actually hits and the public gets cleaned out. A purely contrarian approach is nothing more than fading, and it will get you nowhere.

[4realyo]

well said, bgh2003.

[drugstuntman]

BGH - thanks!

Great advice...and you picked a perfect example on that NYY/Balt over - I wanna lay the wood to that one, but I'm hesitant just because it looks too easy. I like the view of instead of blindly going against the grain, digging for those reasons that would make the contrarian play valid!

[bgh2003]

I ended up playing it light because of the weather (rainy/drizzly right now). With Baltimore already up 5-0 in the top of the first, I'm thinking I should have taken out a second mortgage. LOL!

[Blackbeard]

5-3 o's in the third, maybe they got it right this time, of course I backed off due to my loss on SF last night, which is really how vegas gets you