Friday's Service Plays & Request Thread

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nt

[fleetfox]

WinOnBaseball.com - Friday Report - 05/28/04

Welcome to our first annual service free trial!

-- WinOnBaseball handicaps Major League Baseball exclusively.

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-- NEXT UPDATE will be sent before 6:00am Pacific on Saturday, May 29th.

Season record: 100-107 -19.06 UNITS

(Note: WOB is now 49-26, 65.3% on OVER/UNDER plays this season.)

Lines from Pinnacle current as of 11:30pm Pacific on 05/27/04.

Eight plays for Friday:

UNDER 7.5 CHC (CLEMENT)/PIT (WELLS) -110 - 1 UNIT - 2:05pm Pacific
Clement has been spectacular this year, and Wells has been a safe bet at home, so I don't think a lot of runs will be scored while these starters are in. Additionally, Clement has had great success against the Pirate lineup.

OVER 7.5 NYM (GLAVINE)/FLA (WILLIS) +110 - 1 UNIT - 4:35pm Pacific
Both offenses are significantly better against lefties than they are against righties, and this game features two lefty starters. Also, the Florida hitters have had some pretty good success against Glavine. Willis has been slumping, with a 8.61 ERA in his last five starts.

OVER 8.5 SD (LAWRENCE)/MIL (DAVIS) -109 - 1 UNIT - 5:05pm Pacific
Davis has put together 8 quality starts in a row, but most of that has come against some pretty weak hitting clubs. He faces a San Diego lineup that has feasted on LH pitching. He's also back at Miller Park, one of the more hitter friendly parks. The Milwaukee offense should be able to have success against Lawrence, who is not very good.

STL (CARPENTER) +147 over Hou (Clemens) - 1 UNIT - 5:05pm Pacific
Carpenter has been very effective this year, and can be dominant when not giving up the long ball. He gave up 3 HRs in his last start, but a couple of them were wind aided. Another 4 HRs were given up in one bad start last month. Other than that, he's been predominantly a groundball pitcher, with the best defense in the majors backing him up, which is crucial in a park like Minute Maid. Clemens had his first bad start of the year in his last outing, but is still dominant. I just feel with St. Louis' pitching, defense, and hitting, this is pretty good value.

ARI (JOHNSON) -134 over LA (Alvarez) - 1 UNIT - 7:10pm Pacific
The Dodgers are slumping big time, and facing the Big Unit can't be helping their confidence. Johnson has dominated Dodger hitters in the past, and should have no problem with them tonight. The Dbacks have been horrible against lefties, but Alvarez has been very hittable lately. Johnson won't need much to work with to get the W here, as I don't think the LA bats will have any success against him.

SEA (PINEIRO) +236 over Bos (Martinez) - 1 UNIT - 4:05pm Pacific
Pedro has dominated the Seattle hitters, and has been pitching very well. After a slow start, Pineiro has looked exceptional lately also. I don't expect the Mariners to do much of anything against Pedro, but I do think that Pineiro has the ability to shut down Boston as well. The game has a chance to be close during the late innings, and at this number, I'll take the dog.

UNDER 7.5 SEA (PINEIRO)/BOS (MARTINEZ) -109 - 1 UNIT - 4:05pm Pacific

UNDER 9.5 MIN (RADKE)/KC (GREINKE) +101 - 1 UNIT - 5:10pm Pacific
Radke has had pretty good success against the Kansas City lineup, and has been really good at Kauffman Stadium, where he's given up only 1 HR in his last 35+ IP there. Greinke is a future stud and should be able to hold his own against the Twins, who don't hit as well on the road. The problem may come when Greinke leaves the game, because KC's bullpen is pretty bad. However, I think Greinke will have good success while he's in, and this is a high enough number so that the bullpen won't be able push it over.

PLEASE NOTE: All wagers are recommended for a "base" unit. Thus a side for 1 UNIT at -110 should be considered risking 1.10 UNITS to win 1.00 UNITS, while a team at +110 should be considered risking 1.00 UNITS to win 1.10 UNITS

[ItsBillBelichick]

Dr. Bob

Friday Analysis (no Opinion)
DETROIT (-4) 86 Indiana 81
Indiana failed to cover the spread in game 3 despite being in a good situation, but the line in this game is pretty fair and there are no situations favoring either team. My ratings favor Detroit by 4 ½ points in this game, which makes this game tough to call. Using playoff games only for each team would result in a fair line of the Pistons by 8 points. My longer term ratings are far more reliable than ratings derived from a smaller sample of playoff games only, but my playoffs only ratings gives me a good reason to round up my predicted margin of victory to 5 points rather than rounding down to a 4 point margin. Either way, this looks like a game to leave alone.

[Sportbook Guru]

3-1 LAST NIGHT, NOW 8-1 LAST 2 DAYS!

2 units Colorado +137

MLB RECORD: 114-87-2 at +42.00 units

SPORTBOOK GURU

[Kaptain]

Dunkel Index--Friday--May 28

* Denotes HOME team
Braves (Hampton) 10.32 (1/2)...Phillies* (Wolf) 9.63
Pirates*GAME 1 (Wells) 9.46 (1/2)...Cubs (Clement) 9.33
Pirates*GAME 2 (Perez) 9.50 (1/2)...Cubs (Rusch) 9.33
Reds (Lidle) 10.11 (2 1/2)...Expos* (Vargas) 7.85
Marlins* (Willis) 10.33 (1/2)...Mets (Glavine) 9.90
Padres (Lawerence) 9.72 (1/2)...Brewers* (Davis) 9.57
Astros* (Clements) 10.50 (1/2)...Cards (Carpenter) 9.87
Dodgers* (Alvarez) 8.83 (1)...D'Backs (Johnson) 7.66
Giants* (Tomko) 9.78 (1 1/2)...Rockies (Estes) 8.34

Rangers (Dickey) 9.26 (Even)...BlueJays* (Lilly) 9.20
R Sox* (Martinez) 11.31 (3)...Mariners (Pineiro) 8.47
A's (Zito) 11.37 (2 1/2)...Indians* (Lee) 8.85
Tigers* (Johnson) 9.48 (1)...Orioiles (Dubose) 8.39
Yanks (Vasquez) 11.48 (2)...D'Rays* (Waechter) 9.23
C W Sox* (Garland) 10.67 (1)...Angels (Escobar) 9.59
Twins (Radke) 8.93 (1/2)...Royals* (Greinke) 8.32

NBA....Detroit* 124.0 (6)....Indiana 117.7...Det leads 2-1

Analysis/breakdown to follow under separate thread--3 Wise Men--posted by kmann---Coverboy is having Internet problems..

[Dmurphy]

March Lawrence LTS MLB Super Pick Super Play

Play on: Philadelphia w/Wolf over Atlanta w/Hampton - Note: Phillies Randy Wolf is in terrific KW form while Braves Mike Hampton 0-4 away this year and 0-4 in Philadelphia the last three years.

[ats]

mike watchmaker
belmonts 8th #4 Lightning Stripes
Strong Hope for mondays Metropolitan Mile
Aud for Saturdays Mint Julep at Churchill

Matt Carothers
Hollywoods 6th #9 Truckee Warrior
Strong Hope for Belmonts Metropolitan Mile on Monday
Sand Springs for Saturdays Mint Julep at Churchill


as with anything else, play at your own risk

[Blackbeard]

Mejias Nba picks

Last night: 1-0 | Week to date: 4-0 | Playoff record: 59-13 (81.9 %) | Season record: 830-430 (65.9 %)


Friday, May 28, 2004
NBA Regular Season
Detroit Pistons 80 Indiana Pacers 77

[jrain]

SpecialK anyone?

SpecialK's website says he has a late MLB total play today.

Does anyone have it?

Thanks in advance.

[scraper]

Net Prophet

MLB:

Philadelphia (Wolf) -148 over Atlanta (Hampton)
Cincinnati (Lidle) -133 over Montreal (Vargas)
Oakland (Zito) -121 over Cleveland (Lee)

[griswold]

Special K

Baseball: 7* Mets UNDER

NBA: Pass

[4realyo]

Scraper,

How's Net Prophet doing in bases? Do you know their record? I've been following their picks a litle bit and I think theyr are doing good but I want to double check.

thanks

[Spark]

Extremely satisfying 5-1 Thursday (+17.75%) vaults us to 133-96-1 for +55.2% Bankroll overall in 2004.

Best of luck tonight as always on the MLB diamond......

The Sandman's 5% Friday Night MLB Best Bet Release:
# 913 Arizona Diamondbacks (Johnson) -135 over LA Dodgers (Alvarez)
Please List ONLY DBacks SP Randy Johnson for This Release.
RESTRICTED to the Snakes on the Straight ML Only (No Run Line)
Please Invest at -135 to WIN 5% of Bankroll (10:12 PM EDT First Pitch)
Sandman GameTime Weather Intel: Partly Cloudy, 66 Deg, Wind Out to RC 8 MPH

The Sandman's 5% Friday Night MLB Best Bet Release:
# 923 Baltimore Orioles (Dubose) -105 over Detroit Tigers (Johnson)
Please List BOTH STARTING PITCHERS for This Release.
RESTRICTED to the Orioles on the Straight ML Only (No Run Line)
Please Invest at -105 to WIN 5% of Bankroll (7:07 PM EDT First Pitch)
Sandman GameTime Weather Intel: Fair, 59 Degrees, Wind Out to RC 10 MPH

[Spark]

JCD Sports on a 27-7 run (79%) over their last 34 free picks!!
JCD Sports now 57-31 (65%) over their last 88 free picks.

Today’s Free Pick in MLB: NYY/Tampa Bay UNDER 10.

The UNDER is 7-2-1 in Vazquez’s last 9 starts.

The UNDER is 3-0 in Vazquez’s starts against Tampa Bay.

The UNDER is 7-1-1 in Waechter’s last 9 starts.

The UNDER is 2-0 in Waechter’s starts against NYY.

The UNDER is 6-3 in their last 9 meetings.

[Spark]

Southern Comfort

5* Oakland