Sunday's Service Plays & Request Thread

[BettorsChat]

nt

[Champion Plays]

1.05 PM ET
LOS ANGELES (23 - 18) at ATLANTA (19 - 22)
Victor Alvarez (L) vs. Mike Hampton (L)

The LA Dodgers snapped an eight-game losing streak yesterday and they are excellent value as a small underdog today.

When teams finally break a bad run it releases a lot of pressure and they often respond with a good stretch. Despite going winless for nine days the Dodgers are still in first place in the NL West and we expect them to win more games than they lose for the rest of this month.

"The way this team has handled themselves and the way they've stuck together and the pride they've shown in the face of adversity, in the long run we will gain from it," said Dodgers manager Jim Tracy.

LA catcher David Ross was one of five Dodgers with two hits in Saturday's 7-4 win over the Braves. "It's nice to come in the clubhouse and have the radio on with any kind of music."

Today they face an Atlanta team that has dropped four of their last six games to be just 19-22 overall this season. The Braves are just 2-9 in day games and we're forecasting more misery for them today.

The Braves have won just two of Mike Hampton's six starts and overall he is 0-5 with a bloated 6.36 ERA. He will be desperate to turn that around today but has poor lifetime numbers against the Dodgers...5-6 overall with an ERA of 5.08 and a WHIP of 1.565.

The Braves have never faced Alvarez who looks to bounce back from a poor outing at Philadelphia. Last time out he allowed six earned runs in five innings but both of his previous starts this season were excellent. He pitched a total of 14 2/3 innings against the Pirates and Cubs and allowed only six hits and no earned runs. Alvarez should be able to contain the limited Braves offense today.

Atlanta struggle mightily against left-handed starters, averaging just 3.3 runs per game thanks to a miserable .234 batting average.

Contrast that with the Dodgers who hit .287 and score 4.7 rpg versus lefties.

The wrong team is favored in this one and we recommend a strong play on the Dodgers.

Recommended Play: LA +104

[gtown]

looking for Cash Pomers Plays out of Toronto

thanks

[ItsBillBelichick]

Dr. Bob

Sunday Analysis
MINNESOTA (+2 ½) 92 L.A. Lakers 88
I took the Timberwolves as a 2-Star Best Bet in game 1 based on line value and that value is still present. The Lakers are playing at a higher level in the playoffs than they did during the regular season, but using their playoff games only would still result in a fair line of pick in this game (my ratings using all of the Lakers games with their 4 superstars would favor Minnesota by 2 ½ points). Los Angeles is still just 16-31 ATS on the road this season, including 8-21 ATS after a win and a modest 3-3 ATS in the post-season. The Lakers’ Game 1 victory was a bit of a fluke in that the Timberwolves committed an uncharacteristic 15 turnovers to the Lakers’ 8. Minnesota was second in the league in fewest turnovers per game this season and I don’t expect them to be as sloppy in game 2. Game 2 home underdogs are 5-0 ATS in the post-season the last 14 years and teams with winning records are 31-14-1 ATS as home underdogs after a game in which they lost straight up and lost to the pointspread – including a win by the Houston Rockets this season in game 3 against the Lakers. Minnesota out-shot the Lakers 49% to 47% in game 1 and they have a good chance to win if the turnovers are even in this game. The Timberwolves also qualify in a solid 80-43-2 ATS bounce-back situation while the Lakers apply to a 44-22-2 ATS road momentum situation. Overall, the angles favor the Timberwolves slightly, as does the line value, and Minnesota has a profitable 58% chance of covering at the current number of +2 ½ points (57% at +2 and 60% at +3). I’ll take 3 points or more with Minnesota in a 2-Star Best Bet and I’ll consider the Timberwolves a Strong Opinion if they remain an underdog of less than 3 points..

[Kaptain]

Dunkel Index--Sunday--May23

*Denotes home team
Braves*(Hampton)8.67 (Even)...Dodgers (Alvarez) 8.65
Mets* (Glavine) 10.34 (2)...Rockies (Estes) 8.45
Astros (Miller) 10.22 (1/2)...Reds* (Lidle) 9.93
Giants (Schmidt) 9.89 (1 1/2)...Expos* (Day) 8.28
Phillies* (Padilla) 9.96 (1/2)....Padres (Lawerence) 9.87
Pirates* (Wells) 9.42 (Even)....Brewers (Davis) 9.39
Marlins* (Willis) 8.72 (1/2)....D Backs (Johnson) 8.00
Cubs* (Clement) 10.34 (1/2)...Cards (Morris) 10.00

Indians (Lee) 10.11 (1)...D Rays* (Hendrickson) 8.86
Red Sox* (Wakefield) 11.02 (3)...Blue Jays (Batista) 8.21
Yankees (Vazquez) 10.87 (1)...Rangers* (Dickey) 10.01
C W Sox (Garland) 10.10 (1)....Twins* (Santana) 9.18
Tigers (Bonderman) 10,31 (2)....Mariners* (Garcia) 8.23
A's* (Harden) 10.86 (3)...Royals (Reyes) 7.85
Angels* (Sele) 9.91 (1/2)...Orioles (Cabrera) 9.47

look for breakdown/selections by 3WISEMEN on a thread created by Coverboy....LOL

[Truth]

Champion Sports,

Its Wilson Alvarez not Victor. Don't worry most services get more facts wrong than you did.

Not a big fan of taking teams off a losing streak...usually the monkey off the back results in a letdown the next day but Hampton no bargain.

[4realyo]

A website that shows matchups had it as Victor Alvarez early this morning also.

[caper]

Net Prophet for Sunday May 23:

MLB:

Cincinnati (Lidle) +145 over Houston (Miller)

NBA:

PASS

NHL:

no games scheduled

JRM/THE PROPHET

nonigoji

[friday]

winning points 5-0 last five NBA

LA Lakers over Minnesota* by 8
The Lakers are the team that figures to
block more shots and get more turnovers.

They are also the team that has two players
who can score the ball regardless of the good
defense being played against them.

They are also the team that does not have
an injured ball-hog Sam Cassell trying to play
the game. LA LAKERS, 98-90.

Today's baseball selection not up yet.

IMO, the Marlins is the best play on the board today. Willis +1.31 (canbet). AZ is terrible vs. lefties, will be lucky to score in this matchup. throw in richie sexon's recurring shoulder injury from last night which will keep him in the dugout today, a 1-0 FL win wouldn't suprise me. I'm sure a lot of suckers will look at this game and play it strictly on randy johnson's dominance in this week's perfect game against that terrible atl lineup.

[scraper]

WinOnBaseball.com - Sunday Report - 05/23/04

Welcome to our first annual service free trial!

-- WinOnBaseball handicaps Major League Baseball exclusively.

-- All plays with analysis, along with current and past season records, will be updated weekly on the "Records" page of our website.

-- All records will be documented at National Sports Monitor (*********.com)

-- NEXT UPDATE will be sent before 6:00am Pacific on Monday, May 24th.

Season record: 87-98 -22.23 UNITS

(Note: WOB is now 40-21, 65.5% on OVER/UNDER plays this season.)

Lines from Pinnacle current as of 12:02am Pacific on 05/23/04.

Seven plays for Sunday:

MON (DAY) +131 over SF (Schmidt) - 1 UNIT - 10:35am Pacific
Schmidt is coming off of a 144 pitch count performance, so I don't think there's any way he'll be in this game for long, especially considering the fact that he's coming off of surgery. My guess is that he'll either be fatigued or pulled early to save his arm. He's already had three 120+ pitch count games this month. Day should be able to keep his team in the game, and Montreal can take advantage once Schmidt is gone.

UNDER 8.5 MIL (DAVIS)/PIT (WELLS) -108 - 1 UNIT - 10:35am Pacific
Davis has strung together seven quality starts in a row. Wells pitches much better at home, and against lefties, Pittsburgh has a .228 BA, .294 OBP, and .295 SLG. Both starters should have solid games, so I'm playing the under.

ARI (JOHNSON) -138 over Fla (Willis) - 1 UNIT - 12:05pm Pacific
Johnson needed only 117 pitches to get through his perfect game, and he hit 98mph on his final pitch, so no concern for fatigue here. He has also dominated the Florida hitters, and should continue to do so again, as he is back in top form now.

UNDER 7.5 ARI (JOHNSON)/FLA (WILLIS) -119 - 1 UNIT - 12:05pm Pacific
The Dbacks are barely hitting over .200 against lefties, and they are also bad on the road. Willis has pitched poorly, but Arizona's poor numbers against lefties should offset his poor play somewhat. According to reports, he took some extra bullpen sessions to correct some mechanical flaws, which will hopefully help. Florida should not have too much success against Johnson, so I think the key will be for Willis to put in a good showing.

UNDER 9 STL (MORRIS)/CHC (CLEMENT) -102 - 1 UNIT - 5:05pm Pacific
Total seems pretty high for the quality of starting pitching going in this game. This is presumably due to wind conditions. However, both starters can be characterized as groundball pitchers - Clement is an extreme one, and Morris is around league average for groundballers - so wind shouldn't have a dramatic affect on their pitching. Clement has always pitched well at Wrigley, especially so this year, where he has a 1.53 ERA and .160 BAA. He has also fared well against the Cardinals lineup.

DET (BONDERMAN) +163 over Sea (Garcia) - 1 UNIT - 1:05pm Pacific
Bonderman has been pitching much better than his ERA would indicate. Seattle is having a tough time at the plate, and this line is too high for a team that can't hit. Garcia has been very good, especially at home, but Bonderman should be able to shut down the struggling Seattle lineup.

UNDER 8 DET (BONDERMAN)/SEA (GARCIA) -109 - 1 UNIT - 1:05pm Pacific
Garcia has a 2.00 ERA at home, and has pitched well for most of the season. I expect a pitcher's duel in this one; Detroit shouldn't be able to put up 8 runs again as they did last night, 7 of which came in the final two frames.

[craig]

Sandman or JB?

Thank you

[Spiccoli]

Florida Marlins the play

I have been told over the years to ALWAYS FADE a pitcher off a no hitter....this apparently is a high percentage play that most old timers will tell you to follow.

GL

[4realyo]

JB is passing on his reg. plays, don't know about opinion plays.

[bazookajoe]

Sports Unlimited has its baseball game of the month... one of the stats is that the team is 9-2 in day games...anyone know where I can find stats on teams in day games?......thanks

[friday]

winning points - baseball

marlins, surprise!

FLORIDA (Willis) +140 over ARIZONA (R. Johnson)

Pitchers coming off no-hitters/perfect games usually
underperform in their next outing,. In this case Randy
Johnson is in a most unfavorable setting, making the
Marlins a very appealing home underdog. They've already
pounded the Diamondbacks in the first two games of
this series, and now they get to send ace lefthander
Dontrelle Willis against an Arizona team with a pitiful
3-10 record vs. southpaws (-$990 with 3.8 runs per game).
Florida hasn't turned a profit vs. lefties, but they have
averaged 5.8 runs per game in that situation. They've
seen their team hitting improve steadily (17 runs in this
series already), so they are well poised to swep the last
place visitor.

funny - when you've been following a service for a long time, you can almost predict what their plays will be.