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First Report – Wednesday 5/19

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  • First Report – Wednesday 5/19

    KMann Frank Coverboy - FINAL Report – Wednesday 5/19

    Random thoughts ……

    ---- We almost made history last night when we had Atlanta on the Run Line +1 ½ . Had the final score come back 1-0 it surely would have been the first time in wagering history that a bet was won while playing on a team that lost on the short end of a perfect game. Imagine !!!

    ---- Last night Atlanta goes 0-27 and the Cubs go 1-27 with a walk . A few days ago we had Philly as a top play over Colorado and the Phils rolled 16-5. They gave the Rockie starter Scott Elarton such a beating that he was shipped down to the minors right after the game . Feast or famine …..

    ---- We laid odds on every selection last night both on money lines and run lines . That was a first for us ….. I hope it’s a last - playing all those faves surely makes me queezy .

    ---- Our 3 highest rated plays went 2-1 … overall we kissed our sisters going dead even moneywise thanks to hitting our final 3 west coast games, all on the Run Line.

    ---- Run line plays continue to perform very well going 4-1 last night and 12-3 for the season. Frank and I never liked run liners --- that is until a wise old bird straightened our asses out .


    Note : All plays and results will be based on wagers of $100 per game. In time we may recommend varying our wagers to play into our real strengths in order to max profits. The real question is “When ?“ So far the profit is 3,000. Playing at $100 Per star we would be up over 5,300. We want to bankroll your football season so this decision is not an easy one . Since our method gets even stronger after the All – Star Game we might advise a unit wagering system at that time ….. Our vote is that you should stand pat for now and build a bigger cushion - then hit hard after mid season.

    Please NEVER play out of your “ comfort zone “ Each of us has our own agenda but we should not allow anyone to coax us into doing things which make us feel uneasy .
    Anyone who tries is not looking out for our best interests .


    K-Factor Wednesday Plays : Light day Today and we never force a play

    BREWERS 1* ML EVEN

    RED SOX 1 1/2* RL - 1 1/2 -140

    RANGERS 1* ML. -120

    Top play: Boston on the Run Line




    K- Factor Results for Tuesday : 5-4 and Dead Even on Money

    2* Chicago Cubs ML -120 Loss -120
    2* Boston Redsox RL -1 ½ -110 Won +100
    1 ½ * Boston Redsox ML -160 Won +100
    1* Atlanta Braves RL +1 ½ -135 Loss -135
    1* Minnesota Twins ML -110 Loss -110
    1* Texas Rangers ML -135 Loss -135
    1* Baltimore O’s RL +1 ½ -160 Won +100
    1* Detroit Tigers RL +1 ½ -145 Won +100
    1* Anaheim RL +1 ½ -125 Won +100

    Top plays were Cubs on Money line ( L ) and Redsox on Run Line ( W )
    Best Bet - Redsox on Money line ( W )

    All the rest were Regular plays .
    ---------------------------------
    Our Record into Wednesday:

    3 ½ * 0-1 ( -150 )

    3* 9-5 +335

    2 1/2 * 9-1 + 835

    2* and 1* 67 – 46 +2,249 (Record Includes Run Line Plays which are 12-3 )

    Parlays : 0-3 (-300 )

    ALL K - FACTOR PLAYS COMBINED : 85 – 56 +2,969


    Good luck to us ... ~ Coverboy ~
    Last edited by CoverBoy; 05-19-2004, 02:52 PM.

  • #2
    Run Line Plays

    just curious if you guys are keeping track of how often the extra run has come into play on your run line dogs.

    based soley on yesterday's results, you would have been much more profitable just playing the dogs to win straight up and not laying the juice with the run line.

    thanks for all of the hard work, by the way.
    HURT the bookie

    Comment


    • #3
      Good luck today Guys!!
      Good luck,
      John

      Comment


      • #4
        I'll take a break-even night every night with 2 tough losses. Atlanta has a perfect game thrown at them and the Cubs are 1 hit.

        Comment


        • #5
          EZ - Hurt the Bookie

          John - Thanks and good luck to you as well .

          Hurt - We have strict criteria for run line and money line plays ... run line plays 12-3 so far . You're right about last night but that was just one night ... the other day we had Seattle +1 1/2 runs losing 2-1 at Yankee stadium and getting the money. Overall there will be more profit long term by staying within our system ... and its a long season . Hope our posts are profitable for you so far . Take care .

          Comment


          • #6
            Thanks guys and great work....BOL to you as always

            Comment


            • #7
              Coverboy............

              Hey/Coverboy.........

              I really appreciate all of the hard work you put forth!!!
              Kmann also!

              I missed the advice you received on run lines. Sometimes I feel
              it may may not be wise to play homes teams on the R/L .... Because... if they have a 1 run lead going into the bottom of the ninth, it's curtains for your cash. (IN MY HUMBLE OPINION).

              Keep Up The Good Work!
              FB
              :tongue:

              Comment


              • #8
                FastBreak

                Hey Fast - We play the run line when indicated ONLY on Road Teams and Home Underdogs . We never lay 1 1/2 runs on a home favorite . That's one of our hard and fast rules and we never vary from it . Those are the guidelines .

                Think of it ... Home Underdogs are OK to play on the run line when indicated .... they're either going to win Straight up not needing the ninth inning at bat .... or tied in the ninth .... or even behind but still getting 1 more crack at it .

                Road teams always get the ninth inning at bat .

                So you're right about home faves but Home Dogs are Run Line Candidates.

                Take care ..... - Neil

                Comment


                • #9
                  Fastbreak

                  RULE # !....we NEVER play HOME FAVORITES on the Run Line...you're scheduled for 9 innings, each inning constitutes about 11% of your batting time...

                  Bottom of the 9th, ahead by 1, no at bat, go home loser...This is part of our criteria for RL plays...Yesterday we would have benefited by playing those 3 dogs outright, but we have a criteria for line wagering (-150), and this puts us in what I call a COMFORT ZONE....e g, I feel more confident w/ 1 1/2 runs at -150 than I do straight out at +135....

                  We play a Methodical style of wagering, long haul, for long term results....It's a long season....Thanks for your input, and opinions, all are welcome....kmann


                  Don't make me go Cajun on your Ass!

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Fast Break / Spark / KMann

                    FastBreak - We hope this clarifies everything .

                    Spark - Thanks Buddy !


                    Kmann - I've set the Opening line Over / Under on your crawfish consumption in a New Orleans restaurant assuming you have 3 beers beforehand .

                    The # is 11 1/2 Under -125 And the proposition is in a circle . LOL Maximum wager ...... $ 5,000


                    Also !!! If we decide to go to " Commander's Palace " I'll have to re- work the Line because the Crawfish they serve there tend to be PLUMP !!!! LOL

                    Any takers ??

                    -Neil

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      CoverBoy

                      Hey Neil,

                      Thanks for your response yesterday. The record for you guys has been terrific.

                      I just started to follow you and your team at this thread so i do not know if you have made prior comments about the dunkel index. If you know what dates you made them i will look them up.

                      Based on your response it looks like you guys are using the DI as part of your handicapping. Do any of you guys know how effective the DI has been in the past or come up with a system for using it like Kmann was using the seven points with Mejia's basketball?

                      I was not the one who asked the question about the one day off but i agree with your comments. Does Wayne have any records for past results (other than the nba for last year) for baseball or basketball?

                      Thanks to you guys for your information and efforts. RFC

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        RFC

                        RFC - Thanks for the encouraging words ....We use that Index to start the ball rolling .. From there we have a multitude of indicators to study . A play comes out when all systems go on a particular team and a decision is then made as to whether it will be a Money Line or Run Line Team . It takes quite a while but it's fun and profitable so far.
                        Kmann is the Master of the Index with his own special criteria .

                        I don't know the record for the East Coast - West Coast System for Baseball ... I'll drop Wayne a line on it . This season so far it seems to be coming around nicely .... improving each week .... and if we were to rule out the faves and just play evens and underdogs the record would be 6-3 and + 490 . Time will tell as to how I'll tweak the parameters .

                        I hope we're helping you with your day to day decision making .

                        -Neil

                        .

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          CoverBoy

                          Neil,

                          Thanks for the response. Hopefully, Kmann will explain his special criteria for the DI like he did with using mejia and another source for basketball.

                          I started to make plays on your selections yesterday.

                          I wish you guys continued success and i appreciate your efforts.

                          RFC

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