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Tuesday's Service Plays Thread
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WinOnBaseball.com - Tuesday Report - 05/18/04
Welcome to our first annual service free trial!
-- WinOnBaseball handicaps Major League Baseball exclusively.
-- All plays with analysis, along with current and past season records, will be updated daily on the "Records" page of our website.
-- All records will be documented at National Sports Monitor (*********.com)
-- NEXT UPDATE will be sent before 6:00am Pacific on Wednesday, May 19th.
Season record: 76-87 -20.9 UNITS
Seven plays for Tuesday:
Lines from Pinnacle current as of 10:03pm Pacific on 05/17/04.
LA (ALVAREZ) +120 over Phi (Padilla) - 1 UNIT - 4:05pm Pacific
Alvarez has been pretty dominant this year, and should continue against the Phillies, whose bats are weak against lefties. Solid bullpen will provide security. Moreover, Padilla hasn't been getting any run support, and he has been pitching well also.
UNDER 8 LA (ALVAREZ)/PHI (PADILLA) +106 - 1 UNIT - 4:05pm Pacific
Both starters have the potential to go seven strong innings, in which case the game should go under.
UNDER 8.5 MIL (DAVIS)/MON (DAY) -107 - 1 UNIT - 4:05pm Pacific
Davis has put together 6 consecutive solid starts in which he hasn't given up more than three earned runs. He should continue his string of success against the inept Expos offense. He didn't give up an earned run in his last start against them. Day has also looked very good for most of the year, and his groundball tendencies will help him out in this matchup.
STL (MORRIS) -120 over NYM (Glavine) - 1 UNIT - 4:10pm Pacific
Morris looked very sharp in his last game, and had excellent command of all of his pitches. If his command can carry over into this game, he will shut down the Mets offense. The Cardinal hitters have had great success against Glavine, and as a team, they hit lefties very well. They should be able to give Morris a lead in this one, and he should be able to hold on.
CIN (LIDLE) -144 over Col (Estes) - 1 UNIT - 4:10pm Pacific
This is the first leg of a Colorado road trip, so I will be betting blindly against them for the first three games (as long as the lines are not ridiculously large), as per the "Coors Field Hangover Effect" that I wrote about in past writeups. Even though he got the loss, Lidle pitched his best game of the season in his last start, giving up 2 runs in the first, but not giving up anything after that. He ended up pitching a complete game on only 85 pitches.
MIN (SANTANA) -101 over Tor (Batista) - 1 UNIT - 4:05pm Pacific
Toronto's offense has been pretty ugly at home, with a .231 BA, .289 OBP, and .371 SLG. It won't get any better against Santana, whose flyball tendencies are a bad matchup for the Toronto hitters. Batista success depends on his command rate, but that's been up and down this year. Minnesota's offense looks to be regaining its earlier form, and they should be able to put enough runs on the board in this one.
UNDER 8.5 DET (BONDERMAN)/OAK (HARDEN) +104 - 1 UNIT - 7:05pm Pacific
This same matchup produced a 2-1 final last week, and I expect something similar again. Both starters can be dominant, and Oakland's offense has been subpar, and Detroit's has been on a slide. THe pitcher friendly park will also help keep this one under.
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AAA Sports
2* Phillies
1.5* Tigers over, Reds under
Brian Smith
REG Cubs, DRays, Phillies
Cajun Sports
2* Pacers
2* Astros, Rockies, Dodgers
Earl Morgan
REG Pirates, BJays, Rockies, Royals, Yankees
Fixer Wins
SPC Giants
REG Astros, Braves, Royals,
Magliosa
1.5* Tx Over
Guaranteed
3* White Sox
JB Sports
2* OPINION Pacers
Ken Jenkins
TOP Expos
LV Sports
10* Pacers
10* Astros, Rockies, DBacks, Twins
Mark Langdon
5* White Sox (RL)
1* Reds under, Expos (RL), Royals
OCD PIX
4* White Sox over
3* TX over, Sea under
3* Pacers
PPP
3* TX over, Cards over, Reds overGLTA
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The Sandman: MLB Specialist
www.VSSWins.com
"Hard Work, Discipline and
Sound Money Management"
The Sandman's 5% Tuesday Night MLB Best Bet Release:
# 923 Kansas City Royals (Affeldt) +125 over Texas Rangers (Dickey)Please List ONLY Royals SP Jeremy Affeldt for This Release.
RESTRICTED to the Royals on the Straight ML Only (No Run Line)
Please Invest at +125 to RISK 5% of Bankroll (8:07 PM EDT First Pitch)Sandman GameTime Weather Intel: Prtly Cldy, 81 Deg, Wind Left to Right 13 MPH
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LINECRUSHER
Plays for Tuesday, May 18th
6:00 Eastern Update
2*San Francisco/Schmidt - Cubs/Clement UNDER 7 runs -115 ($230 to win $200)
The opposition has scored 3 or less total runs in 5 of Schmidt's 6 starts so far this season. Over the last 1+ seasons the opposition has scored 3 or less total runs in 11 of Schmidt's 16 road starts. The opposition has scored 3 or less total runs in 5 of Clement's 7 starts so far this season. The opposition has scored 3 or less total runs in all 4 of Clement's home starts this season and over the last 1+ seasons the opposition has scored 3 or less total runs in 17 of Clement's 21 home starts. As of 4:00 Eastern, the weather report had the wind blowing in at Wrigley. Two pitchers that give up few runs combined with hopefully the wind continuing to blow in should make for a low scoring pitchers duel. By the way, the Giants are 11-5 in Schmidt's last 16 road starts while the Cubs are 16-5 in Clement's last 21 home starts.
2*Texas/Dickey -134 over Kansas City/Affeldt ($268 to win $200)
Hot vs cold. The Royals are 3-14 road, 11-24 overall and are losers in 14 of their last 20 games. The Rangers are 13-6 home, 22-15 overall and are winners in 13 of their last 20 games. Kansas City is 1-6 overall behind Affeldt and 0-4 in his 4 road starts. Texas is 5-2 overall in Dickey's 7 starts and 3-1 in his 4 home starts. The Royals are averaging 5.0 runs on the road and giving up 7.1 runs while the Rangers are averaging 7.4 runs at home and giving up 5.3 runs.
2*Detroit/Bonderman +163 over Oakland/Harden ($200 to win $326)
Percentage play on Detroit as a sizeable road underdog in this pitching rematch from last Wednesday in which Harden beat Bonderman 2-1 at Detroit. The A's are 7-8 at home (3-7 last 10 home) averaging just 4.7 runs while the Tigers are a respectable 8-8 road averaging 6.8 runs.
2*Anaheim/Sele +144 over Yankees/Vazquez ($200 to win $288)
Pitching rematch from last Wednesday in which Sele beat Vazquez 11-2 at New York. As a -150 + road favorite the line is out of whack considering Anaheim has the best record in baseball at 25-13 and the Angels are 11-5 at home. The Yankees are 0-2 in Vazquez's last 2 starts as the opposition has scored 7 and 11 total runs. The Yankees are 1-2 road behind Vazquez as the opposition has scored 6 or more total runs in 2 of his 3 road starts. Last season, Montreal was 5-11 on the road behind Vazquez. Over the last 1+ seasons the Yankees/Montreal are 6-13 in Vazquez's 19 road starts and over the last 3+ seasons Vazquez is 4-17 as a road favorite. Anaheim is 3-0 behind Sele so far this season as the opposition has scored 3 or less total runs in all 3 of his starts. Over the last 2+ seasons the Angels are 21-7 in Sele's 28 home starts (.750 home winning percentage behind Sele). Regardless of the injury situation, the Angels are 8-2 their last 10 home, 7-3 their last 10 overall and are winners in 15 of their last 20 games overall.
DOES NOT LIST RECORD
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Hoopsie: NBA Specialist
www.VSSWins.com
"Bringin Our 'A' Game and Running
with the Big Boys Every Single Night
Hoopsie's 5% Eastern Conference Semifinals Game Six Best Bet:
# 702 Miami Heat +5 (-130) over Indiana Pacers
RESTRICTED to Miami +5 (-130) ON THE FULL POINT BUY.
Please Buy the FULL Point on the Heat to +5 (-130) for This Release.Please Invest to WIN 5% of Bankroll. (8:07 PM EDT ESPN Tip Off)Indiana Leads Best of Seven Series 3-2
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winning points -sorry late
LOS ANGELES (Alvarez) +120 over PHILADELPHIA (Padilla)
Wilson Alvarez has gotten off to a spectacular start, in 2004
(1.15 ERA) and has yet to yield an earned run since moving
to the starting rotation. That's not good news for a Philly team
that has yet to beat a lefthander at home (-$340) and averages
just a little over 4 runs per game vs. southpaws. The first place
Dodgers check in with a 18-10 record vs. righthanders (+$705)
and enjoy an 11-4 (+$945) mark as visitors. Vicente Padilla has
not been effective at home (ERA over 5.00) and should not be
so heavily favored in our opinion. Look for LA to stay hot.
UNDER the TOTAL (176.5)
Indiana at Miami*
After the Game 5 loss at Indiana, Miami head
coach Stan Van Gundy complained about his team's
poor defensive effort.
That game went OVER by a whisker, so a better
defensive effort on their home floor should keep
that total DOWN, where it has yet to be in this
series -- 4 OVERS and a push. DUE! INDIANA, 85-81.
fleet-
anything from hardball tech tonight? thanks.
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