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WinOnBaseball.com - Saturday Report - 05/15/04
Welcome to our first annual service free trial!
-- WinOnBaseball handicaps Major League Baseball exclusively.
-- All plays with analysis, along with current and past season records, will be updated daily on the "Records" page of our website.
-- All records will be documented at National Sports Monitor (*********.com)
-- NEXT UPDATE will be sent before 6:00am Pacific on Sunday, May 16th.
Season record: 70-82 -22.07 UNITS
Five plays for Saturday:
Lines from Pinnacle current as of 12:40am Pacific on 05/15/04.
SD (EATON) -132 over CHC (Mitre) - 1 UNIT - 7:05pm Pacific
Eaton got rocked his last time out, but attributed it to the mound at Bank One Ballpark. He's had two bad starts there, but should return to form at home. A solid bullpen will also help him out. For the Cubs, Mitre is just your typical journeyman, whom the Padres should be able to hit and score off of. The offense should be able to give enough support for Eaton & Co.
OVER 10 SEA (MOYER)/NYY (OSBORNE) +101 - 1 UNIT - 10:05am Pacific
This same matchuop produced 13 runs last time out, and I expect the scoring to continue. Both clubs hit lefties well, and the Yanks have dominated Moyer. Osborne still hasn't fixed his control problems, and should put a lot of men on base. Giambi sat out yesterday's game, but should be back for this one, which obviously helps.
ANA (WASHBURN) -109 over Bal (DuBose) - 1 UNIT - 4:05pm Pacific
Although Washburn hasnt pitched as well as his record would indicate, he has fared very well against the Baltimore hitters, and his strikeout rate has looked good lately. Baltimore has trouble with lefties as well. Even though their offense has some injury problems, I think they will be able to score off of Dubose.
MIN (GREISINGER) +178 over CHW (Loazia) - 1 UNIT - 4:05pm Pacific
Loaiza's lost about 6 mph off of his fastball, and has definitely been hittable this year. The league's leading offense in the Twins should be able to hit him, and at this number, the value seems good.
UNDER 9 OAK (MULDER)/KC (MAY) +106 - 1 UNIT - 4:10pm Pacific
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ATS PREEKNESS
ATS SERVICE ARE A BUNCH SCAM ARTIST, BUT FOR SOME REASON THEIR HORSE SERVICE IS NOT TOO BAD. THE PREEKNESS IS IN THEIR BACK YARD DOWN IN BALTIMORE SO IF ANYBODY HAS SOME INFO ON THIS RACE I AM SURE THEY DO. SO IF ANYONE HAS INFO ON THE RACE PLEASE POST IT IT WOULD BE MUCH APPERICATED.
LETS GO SMARTY JONES BRING IT BACK TO PHILLY.
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friday, here's Net Prophet so far:
MLB:
Florida (Oliver) +138 over St. Louis (Carpenter) <<2:15 Eastern Start>>
San Diego (Eaton) -130 over Chicago Cubs (Mitre)
NY Yankees (Osborne) -136 over Seattle (Moyer) <<1:05 Eastern Start>>
Anaheim (Washburn) -110 over Baltimore (Dubose)
Kansas City (May) +134 over Oakland (Mulder)
NHL:
PASS
NBA:
PASS
NASCAR:
Race at Richmond tonight....NASCAR will be sent later today
JRM/THE PROPHET
nonigoji
Burnin' Media To The Max!
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thanks nonigoji
[QUOTE]Originally posted by nonigoji
[B]friday, here's Net Prophet so far:
MLB:
Florida (Oliver) +138 over St. Louis (Carpenter) <<2:15 Eastern Start>>
San Diego (Eaton) -130 over Chicago Cubs (Mitre)
NY Yankees (Osborne) -136 over Seattle (Moyer) <<1:05 Eastern Start>>
Anaheim (Washburn) -110 over Baltimore (Dubose)
Kansas City (May) +134 over Oakland (Mulder)
I'm on 4 out of 5 of his plays. I guess great minds think alike!
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winning points
NY YANKEES (Osborne) -130 over SEATTLE (Moyer)
Considering how poorly the Mariners have been playing
(12-23, -$1375), we're getting a bargain on the Yankees
at this price, even if Osborne was ineffective in his start
at Safeco Field last Sunday. New York ultimately prevailed
in that game anyway, and we suspect Osborne to fare much
better in southpaw friendly Yankee Stadium. Jaime Moyer's
ERA in day games is close to 8.00, and he'll be taking on a
hot Yankee team (7-3, +$190 last 10 days) that is now 10-2
(+$730) vs. lefthanders, averaging 5.6 runs per game in those
contests. Seattle has taken a giant step backward in 2004 and
we intend to capitalize on their misfortune.
IMO, this play is a steal. you're getting great value here based on last sunday's results. the yanks are crushing left handed pitching this year and old man moyer isn't going to scare any of the yankee bats. lay the short price
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ALEX SMART PREEKNESS FREEBIE
ALEX SMART
Preakness Stakes-Pimlico
Maryland-Triple Crown-
Sat,May 15, 2004
Going into today’s race at Pimlico Lion Heart and Smarty Jones are the frontrunners to win the Preakness Stakes. Here are some numbers you may want to ****** before laying your hard earned dollars.
The favorite has won the Preakness 40% of the time ( favs win at 30% clip on average)
Favorites finish in the top 3 /80% of the time
Smarty Jones is a perfect 7-0 lifetime and scored a 107 Beyer speed figure at the Derby
Despite Smarty Jones getting little respect before the Derby and many so called experts questioning his pedigree His bloodlines suggest he is for real-His third-generation sires are Raise a Native, the sire of the great Mr. Prospector, and Secretariat, Northern Dancer, and Sir Ivor."
1.
Although Pimlico is always called a speed-favoring oval, about half of Preakness winners came from off the pace, while 1/3 of winners stalk. Only 17% of horses go from wire to wire for the win. So once again expect Lion Heart after taking the early lead to lose down the stretch to Smarty Jones .
I like Lion Heart and Smarty Jones for the Quinella.
My bomber for the trifecta is Eddington with Jerry Bailey on board.
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MATT RIVERS PREEKNESS FREEBIE
7 of the last 9 freebies have cashed after Southern Image won the Pimlico Special on Friday just like I said he would, a sweet 9-5 takeback for yours truly, never was even a question, just a brilliant ride by Victor Espinoza!
For Saturday let's continue with the racing theme. To be honest with you I like Smarty Jones to win but I would never take him because there is just no value there. He should win but I will go with a couple of other horses who I like.
First of all Borrego is a great value. Victor Espinoza ran a great race yesterday on Southern Image and very well can do the same today with Borrego. Take Borrego to win and place. At 15-1 it is a no-brainer nothing to lose type of a play.
Let's also go with Rock Hard Ten. This horse outrode Imperialism I believe recently and is a quality horse with a very legitimate chance to win this Preakness.
In summation, this is not your normal comp selection with a clear cut winner but I like Smarty Jones obviously but very little value there so eh, as well as Borrego and Rock Hard Ten. Take them all to win and place and I have a good feeling you will thank me later.
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