The Tigers opened some eyes with a very solid month
of April, but it was only a matter of time before reality set
in. Things are starting to unravel, with Detroit losing 7 of
their last 10 (-$255) behind some atrocious pitching
performances (Tigers 6.95 ERA among starters last 10).
The Athletics, winners of 6 f their last 10, are starting to
hit the ball much better (5.6 runs oer game last 10), and
should further inflate Jeremy Bonderman's 5.92 ERA.
Rich Harden checks in with a 1.38 ERA in two night starts
on the road, and Detroit is only 4-7 (-$250) vs. righthanders
at home. We'll take a legitimate playoff contender at a short
price vs. a team destined for another dismal season.
UNDER the TOTAL (174)
Indiana at Miami*
Game 3 was 4-2 after they had played about half
the first quarter, yet it went OVER the total.
But that was an aberration, due to the Pacers
fouling a lot late while trailing badly, and
also hitting a lot of threes in the final three
minutes.
Game 4 figures to begin the same way and the Pacers
figure to make fewer points from 3-point land
than they have in the first three games. They are
shooting 47% from deep and that's about 7 percentage
points better than the best NBA team in the regular
season and 12 prcentage points (33% total) better than
their own regular season percentage on threes.
They say Miami rookie Dwayne Wade is fearless, but
a fearless rookie with an erratic outside shot can
get into a scoring drought. INDIANA, 80-75.
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