Friday Hoops

[HUNGlikeabear]

Looking at the season results for Detroit after games in which they shot a high percentage, they generally shoot a much lower percentage in the game following, provided they are playing a decent defensive team. The last three regular season games between these two were low scoring affairs as well. Just because the last game was extremely low scoring, doesn't mean this one won't go Under. They would have to score an additional 30 points (between the teams) over the previous games total to put this over. Detroit still only scored 78 points while shooting just shy of 48%. They aren't only interested in scoring, stopping the other team is still 1st and foremost in their mind. They aren't going to break what was just worked the last game. NJ hasn't miraculously developed an inside presence or a better outside shot. It's not like they have ever been a good jump shooting team. I think NJ will attempt to push the ball more tonight. This years Detroit team and new coach can also defend extremely well in transition. Detroit will still try to control tempo, and if NJ tries to push things, they may commit more turnovers. Most importantly tonight, is Kidd's knee. He will definitely take charge from the start of this one and assert himself. The problem is, can he do what he wants physically. I think the healty Billups will keep him in check. If Detroit is able to control Kidd, the rest of the team will again resort to popping from the outside. Neither team did all that well from beyond the arch and each was extremely poor from the line, so I doubt a ton of points will be coming from those areas.

These two sets of trends tie together nicely for tonight IMO...

NJ is 2/11 O/U in road games revenging a same season loss
Detroit is 1/5 O/U in home games off a 20+ point blowout home win

Also...
Detroit is 8/20 O/U in home games vs good defensive teams
NJ is 7/17 O/U in road games vs very good defensive teams

GL Gents:D