Baseball System

[krunch]

Been playing around with a baseball system, using pitchers innings pitched at a plus or minus versus hits allowed. I also use day/night stats versus a team's overall stats like batting averages, ERA's, a team's won/loss record at home in each scenairo. It gets pretty time consuming trying to explain as well as researching all the information I use. To make a long story short I have not bet any of the plays that I've come up with, but using this system over the last 3 days it has gone 9-5, 9-4, and 8-4 and would have been + units each day.

Well tonight I'm gonna post what the plays are using this system and will start tracking it to see how it fares out, but so far it would have been + units!

Here's who I have winning each game and strongest plays!

Strongest favorite bets are:
Mets Glavine against Milwaukee Davis Mets -1.65/win 1.00
Reds Lidle against Giants Reuter Reds -1.25/win 1.00
Arizona R Johnson against Phillies Padilla Arizona -1.80/win 1.00
Red Sox Wakefield against Royals Affeldt Boston -2.10/win 1.00


Strongest underdog bets are:
Cleveland Lee over O's Bedard Cleveland +1.10 1.00/win 1.10
Tigers Bonderman over Texas Benoit +1.32 1.00/win 1.32
Twins Santana over A's Redman +1.05 1.00/win 1.05

The other plays I have winning are very close, but I will post who I have as winning the game!
Cubs Zambrano -2.70/win 1.00
Cards Morris -1.82/win 1.00
Pirates Ol Perez -1.10/win 1.00
Braves Thomson -1.17/win 1.00
Marlins Pavano -1.16/win 1.00
Toronto Lilly -1.07/win 1.00
Yankees Lieber -1.52/win 1.00
Angeles Lackey -2.00/win 1.00

As you can see there's alot of juice to lay if you were to play the heavy favorites.
I will keep a money units standing basing each game to win 1 unit. Each underdog I will take example Tigers +1.32 if they win I will count it as +1.32 units and each favorite example Braves -1.15 if they win will count as +1.00 units and if they lose count it as -1.15 units. Lets just see how this system holds out. Doesn't hurt to try! I'm going to check my lines now and will be back to add the line after I get them to keep track of how the plays come out + or - units!

GL Krunch

:D

[Homer]

GL. I for one am interested on how it works out :D :D

[CoverBoy]

Krunch

Me too . Good luck with your system Krunch. We all can use everything we can get our hands on to add to our arsenal . Thanks for sharing .

[4realyo]

I am not one to follow pitchers but I am interested to see how you do. You usually have some good info here. GL

[ego74]

good luck with your system. Minnesota looks good tonight with Santana on the hill. very underrated pitcher. he's healthy now, too.

[krunch]

Just for the Record

New Baseball System

Cubs 11-0 won 1-0 + 1 unit!
Cards L2-4 Lost -1.82 units!
Pirates L0-4 Lost -1.10 units
Marlins Won 3-1 -1.16 + 1 unit
Toronto Won 5-4 -1.07 +1 unit
Yankees Lost 2-6 -1.52 -1.52 units
Angels Won 1-0 -2.00 +1.00 unit

Went 4-3 on close plays Lost .44 units

Went 1-3 on Strongest Favorites Lost -3.70 units

Went 1-2 on Strongest Underdogs Lost -.68 units! Both losses were in extra innings, so we were on the right side, just took 2 extra innings losses.

Overall for the night went 6-8 and Lost -4.82 units!

Okay the system did lose tonight, lets keep tracking it to see how we do on Saturday!
Just posting the record of my new baseball system!

Krunch

[thesandman]

Krunch. I'll be checking your results. This should be interesting. Do you think you can easily separate your results to show how your strongest plays did vs. your other plays. Speaking just for me, if I were to follow your plays, I would only play your strongest ones.

[krunch]

thesandman

I will put the plays up here in the forum, but starting next week I am going to start working dayshift and won't get off of work till 5:30 eastern time so I will be missing afternoon games during the week. I might be able to back track the games to see how I would have done! This system takes about 3 hours till I find my information on sportsline, espn,****** and ********* for weather reports in case I'm looking at a total play. For now I'm only using it for side plays! Basically I break down areas of the game and use a check list type format to get an edge on the game. I use starting pitchers innings pitched vs hits allowed. I break down each pitcher to see who gives up more walks, HR's, extra base hits and strikeouts. I use the opposing teams batting averages vs the starting pitcher and closers. I see which team hits better away or at home for the home team. I see which team hits better vs right or left handers depending on who evers throwing a righty or lefty. I break the game down by day/night time depending on when the game is being played. I even use a factor called the due factor and usually the team that is on a losing streak will get a point for that factor. The way I base my stronger dog/favorite plays are by using the team that has the checks marked under 80% or better of the angles that I use. It's not a complicated system, I try to use all the angles of the game being played. Right now I think I pretty much use every area of the game, but errors and fielding percentages. Its just time consuming, but if I can make a format up and put it here on the computer, maybe during the day games someone else can use the format which would be self explained to see which side the system picks. Lets just see how it works out this weekend as I will keep a tally of the + or - units won or lost.

[thesandman]

krunch. I can see how time consuming this is. It takes forever just to read your posts. I agree that you first need to see how it works.