Tuesday

[HUNGlikeabear]

I know historically the home teams have dominated game sevens. I would bet most of those home teams were more veteran oriented than this young Heat team. Over the last 4 games in this matchup, I think NO has adjusted better and tightened their grip. These veterans have seen more and are able to adjust better while Miami hasn't seen as much and may be more re-active instead of pro-active here. Miami 4-9 SU after a loss by 6 points or less this season, 5-10 SU at this total. NO 86-47 SU after a win by 6 or less and 4-1 ATS at this total, 2-0 ATS on the road. Some short numbers but looking better when putting both teams numbers together. A lot of trends favoring Miami as a fav, and against NO as a dog, but Vegas sets this line lower than one would anticipate, and it drops another point. These veterans on NO do very well when they are in a defensive groove. 10-5 SU after holding down their opponents FG% in 5 consecutive games. I also like PJ Brown in this series and now playing this game in Miami, were he played on this court 4 years.

NO +

[HUNGlikeabear]

Which do you think is more likely to happen?

Minny has already forgotten about their 1st round 4-1 series win?

Sacramento has already forgotten about their 1st round 4-1 series win?

I'm thinking the latter is much more plausible.

IMO, the Kings didn't even play that well and beat a better opponent than the Wolves. I'm reading a lot of good things from the Kings side of the ledger. Webber, Miller, and Divac are all saying team oriented and team focused things. They are leaving the decisions past and present up to Adelman. Adelman in turn, (this is what I'm thinking), will change things up a bit to the Kings strengths for this matchup. Miller actually started coming on later in the last series and has already had one monster game against Minny earlier in the year. Divac didn't bring anything to the table, and more importantly, he knows it. He and Miller will see more time while the stonewalling Webber won't. Stoyo had a bad series period and isn't likely to let that continue. Also, after their 1st round success, the Wolves will be looking for all the intangibles to motivate them here (as in the fighting from the last series) but they won't get it from the professionals on the Kings. Dallas tried that horseshit and they are now wondering what color jersey they will be wearing next year. The Kings know they lost both regular season matchups at home to this team and will be bringing it here for a W. My read into the total is that Vegas expects a high scoring affair. I think that would favor this Kings team on the road. If they are hitting early and jump out, it will carry them through the whole game. The Kings won't have to necessarily follow a tempo dictated to them as in the Dallas series, they may be able to pick and chose. Fast with Divac in, slow down with Miller in. I think their inside game brings a W here. If it's a low scoring affair, I also like the Kings with their big men and their ability to make free throws.

Kings 19-5 SU revenging a loss (14-9 ATS)
At this total, 22-8 SU
7-2 SU after holding down their opponents fg% in 5 consecutive games

Watch Adelman changed things up here. The Wolves will be more hurt by missing their 6th man than the Kings IMO.

Kings +

May play the Kings for the series as the dog

GL All

[HUNGlikeabear]

In bases

Philly at home against STL coming off the big series. The Cards had a let down against Mil earlier after beating Houston three straight.

[HUNGlikeabear]

Kings +170 for the series

[HUNGlikeabear]

Bumped up my Kings play tonight. If I like them enough for the series, this game may be the be-all end-all.