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All lines taken from Pinnacle and current as of 5/02/04 12:37am Pacific.
Season record: 50-57 -13.99 UNITS
Plays for Sunday:
CIN (LIDLE) +135 over Hou (Redding) - 1 UNIT - 11:05am Pacific
Redding is in the midst of a terrible slump, and pitching at Minute Maid shouldn't help him out. He's already given up 5 HR in only 12.1 IP, which is a dangerous thing in this ballpark. Lidle is a groundball pitcher, so the small park shouldn't hurt him as much as it will Redding. Cincinnati's defense has a strong range factor, which will help Lidle. Their bullpen isn't the best, but hopefully Redding's cold streak will continue to the point where the pen won't play a factor.
OVER 9.5 FLA (OLIVER)/SF (RUETER) -108 - 1 UNIT - 1:05pm Pacific
Oliver has had three bad outings in a row, and has a bad history against the Giants' hitters. The Giants haven't fared well against lefties, but Oliver is very hittable, even to the most lefty-challenged teams. Rueter, one of my top "bet against" pitchers this year, hasn't disappointed me much this year. I don't trust Oliver enough to bet against Rueter, so I'll take the over, since I think both pitchers will be giving it up today. Rueter's game is all about command, and since he's lacking it, he capable of putting up some ugly numbers.
OVER 7.5 MON (KIM)/LA (NOMO) -111 - 1 UNIT - 1:10pm Pacific
Kim has some pretty numbers, but they've all been in limited action in relief. He's had problems with his walk rate and command, and has been the beneficiary of an astoundingly high strand rate. This will normalize as he pitches more innings as a starter, and the Dodger offense has shown that it can score. Nomo has lost velocity on his fastball, and has already served up 9 HRs. I think even Montreal's offense can take advantage of Nomo's ineffectiveness.
OAK (HUDSON) -182 over TB (Hendrickson) - 1 UNIT - 10:15am Pacific
I don't normally like laying this high a number, but I think this is a safe bet. Oakland has a .364 OBP against lefties, and also hit better against them. Hendrickson got moved to the bullpen after being ineffective as a starter. He was still ineffective in the pen, but got the nod to start again. Tampa's hitters have some ugly numbers against righties: .292 OBP, .321 SLG. They haven't figured out righties so far, and Hudson is one of the better ones.
MIN (SANTANA) -132 over Ana (Lackey) - 1 UNIT - 11:10am Pacific
I think I can safely say that Santana has returned to form. After a shaky beginning in his last start, he bounced back and dominated the rest of the way. He's been showng signs over his last three starts, and it finally came together. Lackey is still shaky, and can get roughed up by a good offense like Minnesota's.
Philadelphia (Milton) -110 over Arizona (Webb)
Cincinnati (Liddle) +140 over Houston (Redding)
Chicago Cubs (Zambrano) +111 over St. Louis (Morris)
San Diego (Valdez) -135 over NY Mets (Glavine)
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