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WinOnBaseball.com - Thursday Report - 04/29/04
Welcome to our first annual service free trial!
-- WinOnBaseball handicaps Major League Baseball exclusively.
-- All plays with analysis, along with current and past season records, will be updated daily on the "Records" page of our website.
-- All records will be documented at National Sports Monitor (*********.com)
-- NEXT UPDATE will be sent before 6:00am Pacific on Friday, April 30.
All lines taken from Pinnacle and current as of 4/29/04 2:01am Pacific.
Season record: 43-48 -10.24 UNITS
Six plays for Thursday:
UNDER 8.5 FLA (PENNY)/SF (WILLIAMS) -120 - 1 UNIT - 1:05PM
Both starters are having strong seasons. Penny is looking like he will be having a breakthrough year, and should be able to muzzle the weak San Francisco offense. He has had a history of bad starts in day games, but he looks like a different pitcher this year. In Williams’ short career, his ERA is almost a full run lower at home. I don’t anticipate a lot of runs being scored while the starters are in.
LA (WEAVER) -133 over NYM (Seo) - 1 UNIT - 7:10pm Pacific
Weaver gave up 5 ER in his last game against the Giants. Barry Bonds drove in all 5 runs, so if the Dodgers decided not to pitch to him, his pitching line in that game may have been very good. Although Dodger Stadium is known to be an extreme pitcher’s park, it was the third easiest stadium to hit a home run in last year. That is not good for Seo, since he is a flyball pitcher. I think LA’s bullpen can pull out another one.
OVER ANA (WASHBURN)/DET (BONDERMAN OR ROBERTSON) - 1 UNIT - 10:05am Pacific
NOTE: Pinnacle currently lists Bonderman as the starter. There will be a pitching change, however, and Nate Robertson will be starting this game.
I will be taking the over, and will send out another e-mail when the line has been updated.
Washburn’s downfall last year was his low strikeout rate. He hasn’t shown the ability to correct that so far, so I expect his troubles to continue. He’s averaged over 100 pitches per game and only about 5 innings per game. Also, as a flyball pitcher, I don’t like the stadium matchup for him. Robertson has been wild as well, and has a history of control problems. He will put runners on base, and the Angel offense should be able to take advantage of that.
OVER 9.5 ANA (WASHBURN)/DET (ROBERTSON) +102 - 1 UNIT - 10:05am Pacific
SEA (PINEIRO) +107 over Bal (Dubose) - 1 UNIT – 12:05pm Pacific
On the surface, Pineiro’s numbers look horrible, but his skill set is still good, and matches his fine career numbers. Therefore, I think this is good value. Dubose has looked good in his last two starts, but that was against a slumping Toronto offense. An inexperienced pitcher like him should have an up and down year. Hopefully this will be a “down” start for him.
OVER 9.5 BOS (LOWE)/TB (MOSS) -124 - 1 UNIT – 4:05pm Pacific
If this game wasn’t the back end of a double header, it would have been much easier. Moss is one of the least dominant pitchers in the league, and the Red Sox should feast on him. Moss will walk a lot of batters, and the Boston lineup will take them, as they are very patient. This will lead to a lot of scoring opportunities, and I think they can capitalize. In limited action, Lowe hasn’t had too much success against TB’s current lineup, but I think the Boston lineup will do the majority of the damage here.
NYY (BROWN) -157 over Oak (Zito) - 1 UNIT - 4:05pm Pacific
Many have predicted Zito’s downfall this year, and his early returns are proving those people right. He is being hit hard, which reflects the decline in his skill set. Brown, meanwhile, has proven that he’s still among the elite. The Yankee defense is always a concern when a groundballer like Brown is on the mound, but he hasn’t been hurt by it yet. Hopefully the offense has woken up, but I don’t think he’ll need a whole lot of run support to pick up the W here.
PLEASE NOTE: All wagers are recommended for a "base" unit. Thus a side for 1 UNIT at -110 should be considered risking 1.10 UNITS to win 1.00 UNITS, while a team at +110 should be considered risking 1.00 UNITS to win 1.10 UNITS.
Last edited by scraper; 04-29-2004, 01:19 PM.
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www.***********.com
Got you all his 4* that is hitting huge (4* & 5*) 11-3 +34.12*s YTD -12.63*s
Baseball - Anaheim Angels - J Washburn -145 ( 4* )
Baseball - 953 Philadelphia Phillies - K Millwood -108 ( 2* )
Baseball - 955 Florida Marlins - B Penny +105 ( 3* )
Baseball - 957 Montreal Expos - T Ohka +190 ( 2* )
Baseball - 960 Los Angeles Dodgers - J Weaver -134 ( 3* )
Baseball - 969 Oakland Athletics - B Zito +145 ( 2* )
Baseball - 972 Chicago White Sox - E Loaiza -175 ( 2* )
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Hoosier Sports 10*
Hoosier Sports
10* Sacramento Kings -5.5
5* Detroit Pistons -12
7* TB Devil Rays #1/Zambrano +135
5* Philadelphia Phillies/St Louis Cardinals OVER 9.5
4* Houston Astros/Pettitte -150
4* Detroit Tigers/Bonderman +135
10* 3-0 ytd
7* 2-1-1 ytdLast edited by Cubs04; 04-29-2004, 12:31 PM.
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