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Sunday's Service Plays
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All lines from Pinnacle Sports, effective as of 4/11/2004, 12:54:00 AM - PST. Listed pitchers must start.
Six plays for Sunday:
CHC (WOOD) -116 over Atl (Ortiz) - 1 UNIT - 10:05am Pacific
Wood doesn't really have much of a history against Atlanta's lineup. He had a terrific spring, but a disappointing debut where he picked up a win. He's been altering his mechanics a little, and got out of rhythm towards the end of his last start, but he acknowledged it and should be focused in this start. He was on a pitch count in his last start, but has a solid bullpen backing him up. Ortiz had a horrible spring and it carried over into his first start, where he allowed six runs, seven hits, two walks, and two HRs in only 2.1 IP. This follows a declining trend since the second half of last year, where he has been experiencing worsening control and a rising HR rate.
OVER 9 PIT (PEREZ)/CIN (HAYNES) -114 - 1 UNIT - 10:15am Pacific
Perez really took a beating during the spring, and was fighting mechanical problems. There was talk of keeping him in the bullpen to work out those problems, but it was decided that he make this start and then take the next two weeks off. The Reds' lineup was atrocious against lefties last year, but I don't think Perez is at a level to take advantage of that at this point. He was extremely effective against them last year, however. Like Perez, Haynes also is making his first start, which is following up a bad spring. He does not possess a good skill set and will be very hittable, even against a weak hitting lineup like the Pirates. Add in a couple of suspect bullpens, and hopefully this will go over.
MON (HERNANDEZ) -123 over NYM (Glavine) - 1 UNIT - 10:35am Pacific
Although it didn't happen yesterday, I will continue to look at plays where a flyball pitcher is throwing at Puerto Rico. Glavine, in addition to having a deteriorating skill set, has been turning into a flyball pitcher. He looked sharp in his debut, but I'd imagine those types of starts will be the exception this year. Hernandez looked pretty dominating, striking out eight batters in 6 IP. He's a horse and should usually will pitch deep into games. I think he can continue his quality pitching here.
FLA (BECKETT) -130 over Phi (Millwood) - 1 UNIT - 11:05am Pacific
Beckett looked great in his first start, striking out nine and giving up one run, four hits and three walks. He needed only 93 pitches to get through seven innings. He has dominated the Philly hitters in his limited history against them, and pitches very well at home. Millwood also looked sharp in his debut, but didn't receive any run support, as is usually the case when he's on the mound. I'm hoping that trend will continue today. Millwood has struggled against the Florida lineup; I envision Beckett taking control of this game, and will hope that the bullpen won't blow it for him as they did in the first one.
SF (TOMKO) +126 over SD (Peavy) - 1 UNIT - 5:05pm Pacific
Tomko's problem is his HR rate. That, however, should not be a problem in this game. Hitters are already complaining about Petco Park and its ability to inhibit the HR ball, so I think Tomko matches up well in this stadium. Peavy's 3 year split against the Giants reveals that he does not pitch well against them. He's actually been experiencing a decline in his skill set, despite keeping his ERA relatively steady. He's also battling fatigue problems right now, after suffering an injury during the spring.
MIN (SANTANA) -132 over Det (Maroth) - 1 UNIT - 10:05am Pacific
Santana had to leave his last start dueto cramps in his arm. It didn't look too serious, so I'm not worried about that. In 28 IP against the Tigers last year, he posted a 1.61 ERA and .146 BAA, including 15 shutout innings at Comerica Park. I'm not expecting for Santana to get too deep into the game, but I think his offense will give him and the bullpen enough runs to work with. Maroth's skills are below average, and should not pose too much of a challenge for the Twins.
Please note that I inadvertently selected the CHW/NYY "OVER 10" in the Pinnacle selection. The correct pick was CHW +153, which is reflected in the overall record and www.*********.com. Obviously, the Pinnacle record will reflect the over, which was a push. I apologize for the confusion.
PLEASE NOTE: All wagers are recommended for a "base" unit. Thus a side for 1 UNIT at -110 should be considered risking 1.10 UNITS to win 1.00 UNITS, while a team at +110 should be considered risking 1.00 UNITS to win 1.10 UNITS.
In addition to daily tracking of +/- UNITS we have started a Pinnacle account with an initial deposit of $2300 (+$230 bonus) for a starting bankroll of $2530. Base unit will be 4% of total bankroll.
Beginning Bankroll: $2530
Current Bankroll: $1450.66
Today's base unit: $58.02
Selection #1: MLB Baseball
Chicago Cubs 11-April-2004 10:05 AM PST
Money Line for Game -116
K. Wood must start R. Ortiz must start
Risking 67.30 to Win 58.02 USD
Selection #2: MLB Baseball
Pittsburgh Pirates/Cincinnati Reds 11-April-2004 10:15 AM PST
Total Points OVER 9 for Game -114
O. Perez must start J. Haynes must start
Risking 66.14 to Win 58.02 USD
Selection #3: MLB Baseball
Montreal Expos 11-April-2004 10:35 AM PST
Money Line for Game -123
T. Glavine must start L. Hernandez must start
Risking 71.36 to Win 58.02 USD
Selection #4: MLB Baseball
Florida Marlins 11-April-2004 12:05 PM PST
Money Line for Game -130
K. Millwood must start J. Beckett must start
Risking 75.43 to Win 58.02 USD
Selection #5: MLB Baseball
San Francisco Giants 11-April-2004 5:05 PM PST
Money Line for Game +126
B. Tomko must start J. Peavy must start
Risking 58.02 to Win 73.11 USD
Selection #6: MLB Baseball
Minnesota Twins 11-April-2004 10:05 AM PST
Money Line for Game -132
J. Santana must start M. Maroth must start
Risking 76.59 to Win 58.02 USD
Do not hesitate to contact us with any questions or comments.
Good luck,
Edward (Sales & Marketing)
Richard (Handicapping)
WinOnBaseball.com
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National Sports Advisors - http://www.nsawins.com
MLB BASEBALL
San Francisco @ San Diego
Pick: San Francisco +125
Time: 8:05 PM EST
Today the National Sports Advisors look for San Francisco to win as +125 underdogs, when they matchup with San Diego tonight.
San Diego general manager Kevin Towers joked that Petco Park was ``Bonds-proof''. Maybe he wasn't kidding.
Barry Bonds continues the quest for his 660th career homer as the San Francisco Giants try to avert a three-game sweep to the San Diego Padres in their sparkling new downtown ballpark.
Bonds, one homer shy of tying godfather Willie Mays for third place on the all-time list, has traditionally feasted on Padres pitching. The five-time NL MVP has 75 career homers against the Padres -- his most against an opponent -- including 39 in San Diego's former home, Qualcomm Stadium.
The slugger has gone 1-for-7 with a run scored and an RBI in the first two games ever at Petco, including a 1-for-3 performance in Saturday night's 6-4 loss -- San Francisco's third straight defeat since beginning the season with a pair of wins in Houston.
The Padres are 2-0 on their nine-game homestand at Petco, which opened with the Padres' 4-3, 10-inning win over the Giants on Friday.
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SportsGuru
NBA Freebie for April 11th
Free picks are 51-33 (+34.43 units) in 2004. They are currently on a 9-2 run.
Free 2-unit NBA Freebie for April 11th:
Take Dallas/Golden State Under 212
Dallas was beat by Seattle last night but tonight against the Warriors they should win. I didn't take them on the side though as they have been erratic all season on the road. The total looks more enticing as 212 is a huge line, particularly when you look at the injuries to the Warriors. Dampier is out as is Van Exel and Avery Johnson may not play as well. All it takes is 1 40-45 point quarter and the odds of hitting the under become very, very good. Let's take that chance as Golden State is 17-6-1 on the Under past 24 games.
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Baseball Play/Sunday...........
With the Twins/Tigers going over the total yesterday we are now 4-0 on posted MLB Plays here at the forum. We are currently in #2 position at the Ultimate Handicapper Contest and #4 at the national sports monitor. Actually, we are very disapointed at our start and have had a few bad breaks on pitching changes resulting in no-plays and some close losses due to poor bullpen performances......Bullpen performances not expected from us........Just taken from the members page...........
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We are making a mental note today. The Manager for the Cleveland Indians is not very smart. We must remember that in future plays concerning that team. It is another day and hopefully another dollar. There are not going to be quite as many opportunities today but we are looking at a couple of additional plays and we do have some potential weather games today......So, we will ask you to check back at 12:30 Cst..............
Tampa Bay DRays -114 (Dubose/Zambrano)
We are seeing some pathetic performances by many bullpens here in the early going of MLB action...If that continues, we are certain to have a fun year.........
AAA Sports
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