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Another good day as the Red Sox pen was tired, just as I had hoped. 4-3 in games, but +14.24 units. Lot of plays today, here they are:
5* Top Plays
Oakland (-170)....Meche has been roughed up in his career vs. the A's, especially on the road. Hudson has dominated the M's in his career, going 9-5 with a 3.06 ERA.
White Sox/Yankees UNDER 10....this may seem like a strange play with two of the more potent offenses in the league facing off, but let me explain. Being a lifetime Sox fan, I consistently see them get shut down by guys they've never faced before, whether it's a top prospect or just a scrub getting a spot start. I look for Depaula to hold the Sox down and for Buehrle to pitch well. Can't decide which side I lean towards, but probably NYY.
Cubs/Braves OVER 10....Both pitchers have been hammered against their opponent, but the real reason I love this game is that both bullpens were used extensively last night. I expect both to be tired, and a lot of runs to be scored after the 5th inning.
3* Medium Plays
Detroit (EVEN)....can they stay this hot? With Johnson on the mound, I think they can. He has a career 5-0 record vs. Minnesota with a 3.08 ERA. The only thing not making this a 5-star selection is Radke's impressive 15-4 career record vs. Detroit. Although those were much different teams.
San Francisco +120...Rueter has owned the Padres in his career, 11-2 with a 3.29 ERA. He's very tough against lefties, and with the Padres having a heavy-lefty lineup, I like the G-Men here
Texas (+115)....The Gambler pitched well in his first outing this year, and Lackey has been roughed up in the past vs. Texas. Plus, Lackey had an AWFUL spring, with an ERA of 9.00 and allowing 32 hits in 23 innings. I also look for this game to go over.
Philly/Florida OVER 9....just like Mets/Montreal both of these pitchers have struggled against their respective opponent.
1* Small Plays
Cleveland (-105)....If this team could ever figure out how to hold onto a lead, they'd be dangerous. Sabathia had a great outing his first time out and has always pitched well vs. KC. Brian Anderson has a 2-0 record vs. Cleveland, but an ERA of 5.40
Texas/Anaheim OVER 11....see write up from above
NYMets/Montreal OVER 9.5....both of these pitchers have struggled against their respective opponent.
Milwaukee +115....Ben Sheets has pitched very well against the Astors. I think this is going to be a huge year for him and he'll rebound from his first start to shut down the 'Stros.
Arizona (+115)....it's the knuckleball thing. The Cards haven't seen a knuckleballer in God knows how long, and the only time Sparks has faced them, he pitched a CG, allowing just 1 run. Don't like going against Morris, but I feel this is good value.
Record to Date
10* - 1-0, +10 units
5* - 3-2, +1.75 units
3* - 7-2, +15.9 units
1* - 2-2, +2 units
TOTALS - 13-6, +29.65 units
5* Top Plays
Oakland (-170)....Meche has been roughed up in his career vs. the A's, especially on the road. Hudson has dominated the M's in his career, going 9-5 with a 3.06 ERA.
White Sox/Yankees UNDER 10....this may seem like a strange play with two of the more potent offenses in the league facing off, but let me explain. Being a lifetime Sox fan, I consistently see them get shut down by guys they've never faced before, whether it's a top prospect or just a scrub getting a spot start. I look for Depaula to hold the Sox down and for Buehrle to pitch well. Can't decide which side I lean towards, but probably NYY.
Cubs/Braves OVER 10....Both pitchers have been hammered against their opponent, but the real reason I love this game is that both bullpens were used extensively last night. I expect both to be tired, and a lot of runs to be scored after the 5th inning.
3* Medium Plays
Detroit (EVEN)....can they stay this hot? With Johnson on the mound, I think they can. He has a career 5-0 record vs. Minnesota with a 3.08 ERA. The only thing not making this a 5-star selection is Radke's impressive 15-4 career record vs. Detroit. Although those were much different teams.
San Francisco +120...Rueter has owned the Padres in his career, 11-2 with a 3.29 ERA. He's very tough against lefties, and with the Padres having a heavy-lefty lineup, I like the G-Men here
Texas (+115)....The Gambler pitched well in his first outing this year, and Lackey has been roughed up in the past vs. Texas. Plus, Lackey had an AWFUL spring, with an ERA of 9.00 and allowing 32 hits in 23 innings. I also look for this game to go over.
Philly/Florida OVER 9....just like Mets/Montreal both of these pitchers have struggled against their respective opponent.
1* Small Plays
Cleveland (-105)....If this team could ever figure out how to hold onto a lead, they'd be dangerous. Sabathia had a great outing his first time out and has always pitched well vs. KC. Brian Anderson has a 2-0 record vs. Cleveland, but an ERA of 5.40
Texas/Anaheim OVER 11....see write up from above
NYMets/Montreal OVER 9.5....both of these pitchers have struggled against their respective opponent.
Milwaukee +115....Ben Sheets has pitched very well against the Astors. I think this is going to be a huge year for him and he'll rebound from his first start to shut down the 'Stros.
Arizona (+115)....it's the knuckleball thing. The Cards haven't seen a knuckleballer in God knows how long, and the only time Sparks has faced them, he pitched a CG, allowing just 1 run. Don't like going against Morris, but I feel this is good value.
Record to Date
10* - 1-0, +10 units
5* - 3-2, +1.75 units
3* - 7-2, +15.9 units
1* - 2-2, +2 units
TOTALS - 13-6, +29.65 units
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