Everyone is all over Rutgers and UCONN!!

[aplous]

I like michigan ---

duke +++

[TDS]

Actually pubic percentage is on Michigan.

But you are correct on Duke.

[markman]

Actually

no one ever knows for a fact where public is. there is a thing called hidden money that is impossible to track. its bets all over costa rica no one can track. besides if someone has connections at a casino, it means nadda thing. cause at other casinos they can get opposite bets. besides public% means nadda cause its total money that counts. even with that fading is a terrible way to cap. i followed this site (dont need to register to view messages) during march madness and every fader got their asses kicked here. why even post if you just go to consensus sites and just post opposite. people can do that on their own. its a proven fact people who relie on fading lose. if fading worked every casino would shut down cause everyone would do it. in reality the public wins 50% of the time and lose 50% of the time. the true cappers know this. faders just like evry capper get hot and they get cold. just trying to help. cause it seems even the best cappers here started getting brain washed with the fading theory and they all got killed. i was a victim to and followed some good cappers here and we lost a ton fading. then i talked to my book and he told me casinos love faders cause they are the least educated people. a casinos fear is people becoming to educated and they would love it if everyone were simple faders cause it prevents people learning. people lose cause they run out of money and chase and faders are the biggest victims cause they keep doubling up thinking no way public hits this one. just look at monday night football this past year. faders got creamed. teams like the bears, raiders, chargers to name a few got creamed. just my ink on the topic. i just think its a terrible way to cap and besides fading consensus sites which are full of kids with no real money involved is death. and you can never track hidden money. you might think everyone is on uconn. but you cannot follow the hidden money. trust me duke is like the yankees. everyone always bets duke minus points. now when they see number one duke getting points, trust me the real hard hit money will be on duke. the money you cannot see or track will be on duke. duke is an underdog very rarely and when the public has a chance to take duke as a dog they will take them. even with uconns great play, people dont even know them that well. your joe six pack who doesn't follow hoops till now knows duke but doesn't know uconn. coach K getting 2 points in a final four will have many people putting large chunks on duke. you will chase your tail trying to figure out who the public is on cause it doesn't matter either way. the games are decided on the court so pick who the better team you think is. i like michigan tonight cause they are much better. rutgers relies way to much on outside shooting. one cold spell and they are in trouble. but i suck at picking them just like 99% of gamblers. very few make money

[Bennojd]

Markman:

I agree with you wholeheartedly!

I think the "public vs. smart money" equation is overrated.
If a capper uses solely that philosophy I cannot see him or her winning consistently. There are too many other variables involved in a given contest. Personally, I could care less whether the public is with or against me as I don't even look at that.
However, for some cappers I think that this may be a "piece of their puzzle" but they should have other reasons for making the bet as well.
As you said: "The game is decided on the court or field."
I really believe that.

Markman, I enjoyed your post!

Bennojd

[aplous]

probably a good point--I base my opinion on 2 things--

the line--

and

the posters on this huge forum and a couple others....

Wolverines by 7 at half..

also this was a bad year for faders in hoops and football, but that is because so many public players have picked up on it--this was very profitable in the past-

and still to the day, linesmakers know everyone favors and wants to bet favs--

look at this line tonight--everyone says jesus=--5.5 is way high--rutgers is almost at home--

well maybe michigan is 5.5 points better-

who has rut beat all year??

michigan has beaten wisky..

[S49erman]

I agree with you if you mean someone blindly goes to a site and plays just the opposite of what the "public" plays. However, there are many many many times when it is good to go against the public, and to go with. I am a member of a website that is linked up with three different offshore book's, and they give percentages of bets being made on each team which can be invaluable. If there are 75 percent of bets on one team and the line moves in the other direction, there is obviously something going on. Again your right if you follow something like that you will hit about 50 percent or less and eventually with the juice you will go broke. But if you pick your spots and are smart about your money, it can work for you.

[markman]

i agree

everyone in their brother has become faders. the biggest squares know about it. but every bookie ive talked to said watch this year how faders get creamed even more. cause its time to fade the faders. its obvious every day who faders will play. i wouldn't put to much emphasis on line moves. they are tricky. in the 90's many people went against line moves and did well. oddsmakers caught on and ever since not the same. they actually say the sharpest gamblers are those who go with the line moves and scared gamblers go against. take the mavs for instance. line keeps going up. going against that isn't the wisest move imo

[markman]

49er

i know what your talking about. they have wise guy plays and square plays. if you don't think that site is the biggest scam then i am sorry to break the news to you. have you noticed how sad the square plays are. besides over half of theiir info is BS. if you think offshores will give out their info to a site that goes down every other week and has minimal members then i don't know what to say. my cousin works for an offshore sportsbook and told me half the time their info is totally the opposite of whats eally happening.

[S49erman]

mark,

I don't look at their wiseguy or square plays, I just look at the betting percentages. I also match it up with other sites and if they don't match I dont play it. It's been working well so far so Im going to have to stick with it, but its scary to hear this stuff.

p.s. Ive been a member for a number of months now and only remember it going down once. Please loose the additude.

[markman]

49er

go check black listed gambling sites. its listed over 15 times last year and 8 times this year. just giving you a heads up. sorry if i rubbed it the wrong way but i just think trying to worry where public is just a waste of time. truth is a bad run by the public and by the faders wipes out most gamblers anyway those who go with the money and those who go against

[wizardofoddz]

markman

You seem like an educated gambler. Some of the points you have made are correct. I noticed you called me a fader in your post on my thread and by the way you talk I guess I was supposed to take that as an insult. You are correct to a point, some of my plays are fades, but not fades of public money. They are fades of MONEY, period....
There is a BIG difference. I've been around this business for a LONG time, on both sides of it. I don't see why you come here with an attitude. If you don't like someone's style, stay off there post.
Now lets see if you can add something positive to this forum, like winners....
Best Of Luck

[HUNGlikeabear]

just to add something on this topic

during last years NBA playoffs, the public rocked

don't be fading them during the playoffs on sides up untill the finals

[BillyBarooooooo]

I have to agree with ************, everyone has there own philosophy on sports betting! The key here is coming out ahead of the game and if you can do it capping your own games great! To me there are to many games to cap and I don't have the time, and I don't want to put the time in to it anymore, been doing it for to long! I use fading the public as 70% of my capping and trends and systems as the other 30%! When I capped my own games I was lucky to come out ahead at season end. Was I a bad capper, No I don't think so I had my hot and cold steaks.There are a lot of great cappers here who add alot of value to games with there input and insides that they share. Do I fade them, NO! I follow the people who are hot and know the game. Than I incoraprate it into my picks for the night! When you talk about public and consensus plays and how these people don't have real money on the game might be true. But when the consensus has a hugh majority on a play this draws a RED FLAG for me. I look at the game and try to figure out if there is any value in the game. The Key is trying to find value in the lines. I get so tired of reading how fading the consensus is the wrong way to play the game. You have no valid imformation to back up your claims. I do, if you were to fade the consensus this football season you would of hit at 53% going 71-63. Not a bad year for the Anti-Consensus player! Your views and philosophy on Sports capping is yours. Why do you come in here and try to make everyone think like you and believe your way is the right way! I don't think my way of capping games are bad. When I fade the public I look for value in the game! Do I fade the public every game, no! The public isn't wrong all the time and they do go on hot streaks, the beginning of Feburary and the end of the month were good for them. Did I lose, no I jumped on board but you have to figure out when to jump off. Sports betting isn't about one game it's about the season and if you can come out ahead of the game in the end your a winner!

The public rocked last year, great will they do it again? I don't know that is why the game is played and why we try to beat the man. I would put my money on No they will not Rock!!!!

BB

[Bennojd]

BB:

Very well said!

Sports betting is really about finding an edge that enables one to make money over the long haul!
And even though I agree w/ Markman about the "public vs. smart money" issue; if someone can use that equation to their advantage.........more power to them!
If someone flips a coin on each game and then fades those coin flips, it doesn't matter!.........as long as they win a fair majority of those games in the long term!
There are no right or wrong answers when it comes to sports betting.........who cares!.........just be profitable over time!


Sincerely,
Bennojd

p.s.> Is "Billy Barooooooo" the name of the putter that Ted Knight (the judge) used in the movie Caddyshack?

[Hillside123]

Markman..

Where can you check Black listed gambling sites??


go check black listed gambling sites. its listed over 15 times last year and 8 times this year. just giving you a heads up. sorry if i rubbed it the