betting baseball

[todd]

I bet football and basketball each year, I just don't understand betting baseball. Can't you take a team that you know is going to win 100 games a year and bet them every game and double up if they lose. Does anybody see the YANKEES or the REDSOX losing 5 or 6 in a row. The last three years the most the YANKEES lost in a row was 4. Please help.

[Trainer]

Yanks and the bosox will both be laying in the range of 3-1 on most games....my advice is doubling up is a bad bet....just my opinion....i look for value and usually get it

[bgh2003]

The Yankees with A-Rod will be the most overpriced team in MLB this year. They will consistently be favored at no less than (-200). The chase theory you're suggesting doesn't work at that price. One loss will set you back 2 units, which means you might need to risk 4 or more to get it back the next game. A two or three game losing streak can put you in the hole pretty quickly. Pick your spots with the heavy favorites, just as you would with underdogs.

[GoldVike]

JMHO but

You would need a small fortune to survive that theory......Many many games the Yanks will be -200 to -350 favorites (going agains TB or other bottom feeders).....all they need is one small losing streak...I remember the Yanks last year dumped a lot of games in just a 12 or 13 game skid. Went like 2 -11 or something like that.

If the Yanks started out with a small 3 game losing streak....just to start you would be down 200 after game one.....double up to get it back in game two costs you 400 to get your money back......they lose.....Now down 600 after TWO games.......for game three you now put up 1200 to get your 600 back they have Jeter go down and you lose.......NEW series coming up but to open the year 0-3 you are down 1800.00 and now you would need to put up 3600 just in the fourth game of the season to get back to even!

I AM NOT SAYING THE YANKS WOULD DROP THEIR FIRST 3 THIS YEAR OR BE -200 Doing it.....but after the first month or so that will be the norm and not the exception.

No one needs that kind of stress!

You would be better served picking spots against them as heavy road favorites. FWIW AND JMHO
BEST OF LUCK TO YOU!

[MtrCtyPimp]

Never lay anything higher than 50 cents juice and U will be OK

PEACE

[thesandman]

Long Answer - Sorry

Todd. It depends on how large your bankroll is. Most Yankee games are over 1.50, with many over 2.00. Just do the math. Laying just 1.50, this is what happens if they lose 4 in a row.

Game 1 Bet 150 Lost 150
Game 2 Bet 225 Now down 375
Game 3 Bet 560 Now down 935
Game 4 Bet 1495 Now down 2430
Game 5 Bet 3925 and pray a lot.

It gets worse when games are higher than 1.50. If you have a huge bankroll, of course at some point you will win your losses back, but if you don't, it's a different story. I would never want to be in the position of playing 39 units, just to get back to even. My bankroll would probally be tapped out by then anyway.

Bottom line Todd. If you have the bankroll to make the next play, you will win. Just hope the Yankees don't have their 4 games losing streak the last 4 games of the season. I had a friend in college who had a similar theory for craps. He figured a 6 or 8 would come before a 7. A group of 8 of us tried this, playing the 6 and 8 every roll and doubling up after any 7. We figured we had enough combined bankroll to survive 4 sevens before seeing a 6 or 8. It did work, although over a 10 hour period, we saw 3 sevens before a six or eight more than a few times and twice we did have to make our last bet after seeing 4 sevens. I think we each put in $350, so we could bet $2560 after 4 sevens. Our first bet was $80 on both the 6 and 8, or $20 for each person. After 10 hours we more than doubled our money, which was a big deal for poor college kids. But doing this straight for 10 hours was a grind, even taking turns staying and making the plays. And twice we had a very scary feeling.

[MtrCtyPimp]

whats the point of chasing losses anyways?

every game is a seperate event by the laws of probability.....just because a team has lost 9 str8 games doesnt improve their chances of winning game #10.........baseball is a grind with games every single day and sometimes all day long

just play daily a few choices a day and grind it out and hope in the end u come out ahead.......I find it the most enjoyable and I tail plays 5 days a week since my only systematic plays come on the weekends (mostly Sunday)

GL

Its gonna be a fun season

PEACE

[bgh2003]

Chase theories do work (e.g., NBA teams on a 3 game or longer road trip almost never cover every game of the trip), but the moneylines of baseball make chasing losses impractical and dangerous. A good example came last season during a series between the White Sox and Tigers, at Detroit. The Sox were something like -250 in the first game. They lost. They were priced a little higher in the second game, and lost. In the third and final game of the series, the Sox were -300, and everyone and his mother was on the South Siders (including me). Result? Those bastards lost again, 1-0, and I had to scramble for the money to pay my man.

[capone]

sometimes

in baseball sometimes i will bet a heavy fav.say i just won a unit 100$ now i might take a team -200 for 100-50$

[TDS]

Two things about Baseball:

I use chase method. Let me explain.

Play against teams on 4+ road games. Sometimes teams go on 6 to 9 game road trips. Play against them. Most teams play .500 ball on the road.

About the Yankees. Last season for example. If you bet against the Yankees last season for all 162 games.....You made a profit.

Reason? The juice was set so high