spark........thanks again for the help..........does your Dr Tom source let you know if they are 5 stars, or "5 star locks". I know he releases both . thanks again.
Did Underdog pass ?
Originally posted by BENNY7 spark........thanks again for the help..........does your Dr Tom source let you know if they are 5 stars, or "5 star locks". I know he releases both . thanks again.
Did Underdog pass ?
YOUR WELCOME BENNY...THIS KANSAS PLAY IS A REG PLAY FROM HIM...IT IS NOT BIG...IT DOES NOT GIVE ME A STAR RATING...HOPE THAT HELPS...
For the record, NSA is now giving out different reports! the one that I got today is different from what is posted, I guess this way they can say they won and they think no one will know, I have sent them several emails about it because I made a bet thinking I was getting the right one, I paid for the service, guess what, they sent me the wrong information!!! with no explaination!!! The one that is posted in the forum is correct. Maybe by posting this I will get someone's attention and they can tell me why I got false infromation!!!!!!!!!!
**Georgia Tech (+4 points or more) 74 Kansas 71
What kind of line is Kansas by 4 ½? I thought I was reading it backwards. I realize that B.J. Elder is probably going to be out or limited at best, but how tough is it to replace 42% shooting, 2.8 rebounds, and 1.5 assists? Apparently, not too tough given that they beat a very good Nevada team (and covered) despite losing Elder in the game’s 3rd minute. Elder may be the team’s leading scorer, but the Yellow Jackets are a very balanced team with talent coming off the bench and Elder’s value is 0.9 points based on my calculations. Without Elder, my ratings would favor Georgia Tech by ½ a point and there is certainly no justification for Kansas being favored by 4 ½ points. I realize that Kansas has played extremely well in their 3 tournament games, but the Jayhawks have faced teams seeded 13, 12, and 9 and two of those games were in friendly Kansas City. Georgia Tech is a big step up in class and Kansas was 0-5 straight up this season against the best 4 teams that they faced this season (Stanford, Nevada, Oklahoma State, and 2 games against Texas) and their average game rating in those 5 games was about 9 points worse than their season average rating (they lost those games by an average of 14 points). Georgia Tech played teams the caliber of Kansas all season long and they are at least as good as the Jayhawks – even without Elder. Also, teams that cover the spread in 3 or more NCAA Tournament games (in the same tournament) are just 17-26-1 ATS in their next game against teams that aren’t on a 3 game spread win streak – so there is a history of overreaction to “current form”. Taking 4 points or more makes Georgia Tech a 2-Star Best Bet based on the line value (60% chance of covering at +4) and I’ll take advantage of the overreaction to Elder’s injury and the Jayhawks’ recent good performances.
Duke (-7 ½) 77 Xavier 64
Xavier is now 16-1 straight up and 16-1 ATS since February – when the started giving an effort on the defensive side of the floor (45% FG allowed in their first 19 games and only 37% FG allowed in their last 17 games) – and my current ratings favor Duke by just 6 points in this game. However, Xavier applies to a very negative 1-20 ATS NCAA tournament situation that has worked 2 of 3 times this year. The lone loss was against Xavier in their round 3 win over Texas, but I actually leaned with Xavier in that game despite the strong negative situation. The line was way off in that game, however, and not as far off in this contest and I’d take Duke in a Best Bet if they were favored by 6 points or less. However, I’ll just consider Duke a Strong Opinion at the current number.
Comment