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**crswir** · 01-26-2003, 10:44 AM

Common Opponent/Site Analysis for Super Bowl XXXVII
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Oakland Raiders
No regular season opponents in common, playing at same site
Oakland lost 23-20 to San Francisco at home on 11/3
Tampa Bay beat the 49ers 31-6 at home on 1/12/03
Oakland won 30-17 at Pittsburgh on 9/15
Tampa Bay lost to the Steelers 17-7 at home on 12/23
Oakland lost 28-13 at St Louis on 10/13
Tampa Bay defeated the Rams 26-14 at home on 9/23

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Predicted Super Bowl XXXVII Score based on Power Ratings
[This is NOT an Official Selection]
Sunday, January 26, 2003
Oakland Raiders 20 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19 [Super Bowl XXXVII]

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Statistical Projections for Super Bowl XXXVII
[This is NOT an Official Selection]
Rush Pass Fumb Int
Date Team Score Yds Yds Lost Lost

01/26/2003 Oakland Raiders 17 97 242 0 2
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 18 84 219 0 1

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**crswir** · 01-26-2003, 10:46 AM

VS.

SystematicSports.com
January 26, 2003
6:00pm Eastern Time
Weather Forecast: Partly Cloudy Hi 74º/ Lo 59º

Weekly NFL picks

VS.

TB (+4) by 1

TAMPA BAY (+4) 17 – OAKLAND RAIDERS 16
Qualcomm Stadium San Diego, California (Grass / 71,294)

This one may well go down as the Subplot Bowl. Gruden vs. the Raiders; the number 1 offense pitted against the number 1 defense; Davis versus the NFL and the list goes on. But lets worry about what is going to happen on the field.

The Raiders come in with the League’s best offense – statistically speaking. The unit is averaging 28ppg on 390ypg, and is anchored by the passing exploits of QB Gannon. Plain and simple, the unit puts together huge drives by nickel and diming opposing defenses through the air (280 YP per game). WR’s Brown and Rice are masters at finding soft spots in the zone, and simply pulling up a chair – while Gannon always seems to deliver the ball right on cue. If that’s not enough, the Raiders have a viable deep threat in WR Porter, not to mention a stable of RB’s that bring all elements of the spectrum, led by dual threat RB Garner (91 catches, 962 YR).

On defense the Raiders have made great strides, especially with the emergence of rookie MLB Harris. On the year, the defense is allowing 19ppg on 311ypg, highlighted by a sterling performance against the run, giving up just 90 YR per game. The secondary has been banged up of late, as starting DB’s Woodson and James are both playing with metal plates in their legs- due to broken bones suffered in December. If the Bucs are going to put points on the board, it will likely be through the air, as the Raiders are allowing 220 YP per game.

The Bucs offense has stabilized into a consistent attack – when QB BRAD Johnson lines up behind center. The unit has discovered "the Forward Pass," which has led to season averages of 21ppg on 312ypg. For the first time in maybe forever, the passing attack has been the flag bearer for the Bucs, as they are averaging 215 YP per game. The rush offense is still effective (97 YR per), but not nearly as prominent. The Bucs emphasis on the pass likely will pay dividends against a talented but questionable Raider secondary.

There isn’t much to say about the Bucs defense other than: Number 1 in total defense, Number 1 in scoring defense, and home to the NFL’s defensive player of the year – LB Brooks. The unit is holding foes to a startling 12ppg on just 252ypg. The unit is especially stingy against the pass, allowing just 155 YP per game, while still handling the rushing attack with consistent success (97 YR allowed per). The Bucs are the entrepreneurs and the experts at Cover 2, and will send plenty of heat Gannon’s way. But the difference between the Bucs and every other team the Raiders have faced is that the Bucs are able to achieve maximum pressure while rushing only 4 guys; thereby allowing the rest of the D to clamp down – which should leave little breathing room from Rice and Brown.

If all goes as expected, it should end up a wash between the Raider offense and the Bucs defense, leaving us with this interesting conundrum: who will win the match-up between the Bucs offense and the Oakland D. Our feeling is that the Bucs offense has the passing attack suited to beat the Oakland secondary, with a strong enough short yardage rushing attack to get the 3rd and shorts. All in all, prefer to take the Bucs in this one based on premise that a good defense should always beat a good offense (look for a score from the Buc D), plus, in what should be a nail biter, we like those 4 points!

Recommendation: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +4

**crswir** · 01-26-2003, 10:47 AM

Scorecast models

We have one scorecast model (model ll) that has not missed an ATS playoff call so far - it even forecast a 1 point TB victory over Philly. (unfortunately we have gone against it twice). Model ll projects Oakland by 2 over Tampa Bay.

We crunched 3 scorecasting models accenting different data for this match-up. The results were Oakland by 3 & 2, and Tampa by 1. The three models produced totals of 43, 38, & 37 points. According to the data Oakland will put up between 20-24 points, while Tampa should be able to put up 17-20 points. We're going to call for at least a 3 point Raider victory. If we wanted to take the Raiders we would consider hitting them on the ML, or buying the number down to 3.

Peace

**crswir** · 01-26-2003, 12:06 PM

Underdog Sports Oakland @ Tampa Bay 2003-01-26 Play on Under
Prodigy Sports Oakland @ Tampa Bay 2003-01-26 Play on Tampa Bay
Prodigy Sports Oakland @ Tampa Bay 2003-01-26 Play on Under

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