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Marc Lawrence Playbook

Angle of the Week:

Play on any NFL division home dog who started the season 0-4 if they are off a SU & ATS loss against a division opponent.

ATS 15-0 since 1980
Play Cincinnati

Stat of Week:

Syracuse 2-31 ATS in their last 33 SU losses going into revenge including 0-16 ATS vs. Conference opponents

Best Bets:
5* Boise St.
4* Boston College
3* Texas Tech

NFL
5* Miami, Seahawks/Over
4* Cincinnati, Titans/Over
3* Jacksonville, TB/Under

Upset Special of Week
Rice by 3 pts over Hawaii

[BettorsChat]

PointWise

College

5* Maryland, Duke
4* Kansas St, Tulane
3* Iowa
2* Cincinnati
1* Boise St, Colorado St.

NFL

5* St. Louis
4* Titans, Jacksonville, Giants
3* Cincinnati

[BettorsChat]

Winning Points

NFL

Best:
Minnesota by 7pts
Washington by 8pts

Preferred:
Cincinnati by 5pts
Titans by 6pts

College

Best Bet:
Colorado by 27pts
California by 24pts

Preferred:
Georgia Tech by 7pts
Kentucky by 5pts
Texas by 21pts
SMU by 24pts

[BettorsChat]

CKO CONFIDENTIAL by Goldsheet

11* CAROLINA over Tampa Bay 17-13
10* VIRGINIA over North Carolina State 33-28
10* NEW MEXICO STATE over North Texas 14-10
10* NEVADA over Fresno State 35-31
10* BOISE STATE over Louisiana Tech 54-16

TOTALS
KC/BUFFALO OVER 51.5
GIANTS/WASHINGTON UNDER 37

HONORABLE MENTION
Oklahoma -36
Texas Tech +5
Temple -8.5
California -16
Jacksonville -6

[BettorsChat]

THE GOLD SHEET EXTRA

OKLAHOMA
COLORADO STATE
CALIFORNIA
BOISE STATE
NEW ORLENES
NEW ORLENES/ATLANTA OVER THE TOTAL

COLLEGE SYSTEM PLAYS THIS WEEK

COACH & POINTSPREAD (62-44);LOUISVILLE over Southern Miss, OREGON STATE over Stanford, UAB over East Carolina, HAWAII over Rice, KANSAS STATE@ over Nebraska, COLORADO STATE over San Diego State, IOWA@ over Minnesota, UYAH over Wyoming.

COLLEGE COACH AS UNDERDOG (23-18);WISCONSIN over Michigan,
MISSISSIPPI STATE over Tennessee, UAB* over Southern Miss, OREGON over Washignton State, MISSISSIPPI STATE over Alabama, AIR FORCE* over UNLV.

RIVALRY DOGS (12-11);No plays this week.

POWER UNDERDOGS (50-35); CLEMSON over Maryland, GEORGIA* overAuburn, NEBRASKA@ over Kansas State, NC STATE* over Virginia, SOUTHCAROLINA over Florida, SYRACUSE over Boston College, WASHINGTON overOregon, WISCONSIN over Michigan, and dog in Alabama-LSU game.

PAINFUL MEMORY (7-10);FLORIDA STATE over North Carolina.

POWER REVENGE (2-7);FLORIDA STATE over North Carolina, KANSASSTATE@ over Nebraska.

IMPOTENT FAVORITES (13-8);UTEP over SMU, and dog in Arkansas State-Idaho game.

RESTED HOME WINNERS (22-15);No plays this week.

[BettorsChat]

Red Sheet:

89 Boise St, California
88 Wyoming, Colorado, Iowa, Vikings

Near Choices:

87 Cincinnati, Rice, Colorado St, Penn St
87 NFL-Cincinnati, Jacksonville, St. Louis

[BettorsChat]

SUNSHINE FORECAST

What advantage is gained from having a bye week in the NFL?
It's a common misconception that having a bye week in the NFL is an advantage for all teams. [For this discussion, a minimum of 12 days between games was required. Therefore, teams are not eligible if they played on Sunday, had a bye during the next weekend, but played a Thursday game following the bye. Also, games following the postponement of the NFL schedule on September 16- 17, 2001 were excluded from the analysis.]

Many teams do well with extra rest; since 1993 Dallas has covered 8 of 10 games after an off week. On the other hand, there are teams that perform very poorly after a bye; Tampa Bay fits that mold at 2-7 ATS since 1993.

But let's look at the bigger picture, patterns that appear throughout the league. Actually, let's limit the discussion to home teams coming off a bye week. In theory a team playing at home after a week off should gain even more advantage over their opponent since travel is factored out of the equation. But what's the reality?

Home teams consistently struggle, compiling a 63-77 ATS (45%) record in the past 9 seasons. In 2002 the record has been consistent with that finding at 8-10-1 ATS through Week 10. The Buccaneers are in danger of continuing their poor post-bye record when they host Carolina next Sunday.

Home favorites whose last game was on the road follow their bye week by covering the number at a dreadful 30% rate (17-39 ATS). The pattern held in 2001 with only two of six qualifying teams beating the spread, although the record is even at 4-4 ATS in 2002 through Week 10, raising the 10- year record to 33% ATS. The Broncos' Monday night failure against Oakland was the latest qualifier.

On the other hand, home underdogs appear to have a slight edge with extra rest, covering 59% of the time (26-18 ATS). In 2001, four qualifying games split 2-2 ATS and in 2002, the record has slipped to 1-3-1 ATS (the push was Houston +7 vs. Buffalo) through Week 10 including Carolina's last-play ATS loss to New Orleans last Sunday.

Unfortunately, you'll need to file away this week's analysis for next season because there are no open dates remaining on the 2002 NFL regular season calendar. Keep it handy when the 2003 NFL schedule is announced next spring.

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Other Teams with ATS Record of 60% or Above After a Bye Week (1993-2001)
Denver 7-2 [L]
Arizona 6-3 [L]
Chicago 6-4 [L]
New Orleans 6-4 [W]
Oakland 6-4 [W]
Philadelphia 6-4 [W]
Washington 6-4 [W]

Other Teams with ATS Record of 40% or Below After a Bye Week (1993-2001)
Baltimore 2-6 [W]
Atlanta 2-5 [L]
New York Giants 3-7 [L]
Seattle 3-6 [L]
Green Bay 3-5 [W]
New England 4-6 [L]
New York Jets 4-6 [W]

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Historical Trends for College Football
[These Are NOT Official Selections]
(based on games since 1995)
Sides: November 16, 2002

Alabama at Louisiana State
Take Alabama
Domination by visiting team 6-0-1 100%
Domination on the road by Alabama 3-0 100%
Take Louisiana State
Domination by underdog at Louisiana State 3-0 100%

Army at Tulane
Take Tulane
Domination by home team 6-0 100%

Ball State at Central Michigan
Take Central Michigan
Domination by Central Michigan 4-0 100%

Colorado State at San Diego State
Take Colorado State
Domination on the road by Colorado State 3-0 100%

Duke at Georgia Tech
Take Georgia Tech
Domination by home favorite at Georgia Tech 3-0 100%

Houston at Cincinnati
Take Cincinnati
Domination at home by Cincinnati 3-0 100%

Oklahoma at Baylor
Take Oklahoma
Domination on the road by Oklahoma 3-0 100%

Purdue at Michigan State
Take Michigan State
Domination at home by Michigan State 3-0 100%

Utah at Wyoming
Take Utah
Domination on the road by Utah 3-0 100%

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Predicted College Football Scores based on Power Ratings
[These Are NOT Official Selections]
Thursday, November 14, 2002
Louisville 24 SOUTHERN MISS 23

Saturday, November 16, 2002
BOSTON COLLEGE 29 Syracuse 16
Maryland 27 CLEMSON 14
GEORGIA TECH 30 Duke 14
No Carolina State 41 VIRGINIA 31
Connecticut 36 NAVY 25
Purdue 31 MICHIGAN STATE 27
Ohio State 24 ILLINOIS 20
Penn State 36 INDIANA 18
Iowa 35 MINNESOTA 27
CINCINNATI 42 Houston 23
AKRON 45 Buffalo 35
CENTRAL MICHIGAN 30 Ball State 26
No Illinois 50 EASTERN MICHIGAN 29
Toledo 38 WESTERN MICHIGAN 28
KENTUCKY 45 Vanderbilt 24
TEXAS A & M 41 Missouri 29
Oklahoma 45 BAYLOR 6
Oklahoma State 44 KANSAS 25
Texas 38 TEXAS TECH 31
ARKANSAS 42 UL-Lafayette 6
Hawaii 40 RICE 25
ALABAMA-BIRM 38 East Carolina 37
San Jose State 28 TULSA 25
Colorado St 41 SAN DIEGO ST 26
Utah 28 WYOMING 21
Air Force 38 NEVADA-LAS VEGAS 28
BRIGHAM YOUNG 30 New Mexico 26
BOISE STATE 59 Louisiana Tech 21
TROY STATE 33 Utah State 29
Temple 24 RUTGERS 13
Tennessee 26 MISSISSIPPI STATE 14
TULANE 44 Army 17
FLORIDA STATE 42 North Carolina 17
LOUISIANA STATE 23 Alabama 20
KANSAS STATE 37 Nebraska 17
MICHIGAN 17 Wisconsin 12
CALIFORNIA 28 Arizona 13
Georgia 24 AUBURN 21
OREGON 38 Washington 29
SOUTHERN CAL 39 Arizona State 19
FLORIDA 27 South Carolina 10
MID TENNESSEE ST 47 UL-Monroe 25
NORTH TEXAS 21 New Mexico State 9
Oregon State 31 STANFORD 17
IDAHO 38 Arkansas State 27
So Methodist 23 TEXAS-EL PASO 22
U-C-F 34 Kent State 14
COLORADO 35 Iowa State 29
FRESNO STATE 41 Nevada-Reno 29
SOUTH FLORIDA 28 Bowling Green 27

Wednesday, November 20, 2002
VIRGINIA TECH 37 West Virginia 26

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Historical Trends for NFL
[These Are NOT Official Selections]
(sides based on games since 1994, totals based on games since 1996)
No sides this week

No totals this week

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Predicted NFL Scores based on Power Ratings
[These Are NOT Official Selections]
Sunday, November 17, 2002
Green Bay Packers 32 MINNESOTA VIKINGS 26
New Orleans Saints 32 ATLANTA FALCONS 31
Cleveland Browns 24 CINCINNATI BENGALS 19
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 20 Dallas Cowboys 13
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 36 Buffalo Bills 29
MIAMI DOLPHINS 25 Baltimore Ravens 18
NEW YORK GIANTS 16 Washington Redskins 14
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 20 Arizona Cardinals 13
Pittsburgh Steelers 30 TENNESSEE TITANS 26
San Francisco 49ers 24 SAN DIEGO CHARGERS 19
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS 19 Carolina Panthers 7
Denver Broncos 22 SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 21
New York Jets 26 DETROIT LIONS 23
Jacksonville Jaguars 23 HOUSTON TEXANS 12
New England Patriots 29 OAKLAND RAIDERS 28

Monday, November 18, 2002
ST LOUIS RAMS 27 Chicago Bears 20

[BettorsChat]

THIS WEEKS PAPERS NOVEMBER 16

NORTHCOAST POWER SWEEP KEY RELEASES

UNDERDOG PLAY OF THE WEEK
WASHINGTON +9 ov Oregon

COLLEGE KEY SELECTIONS
(4*) OHIO STATE
(3*) PENN STATE
(3*) RICE

OTHER SELECTIONS
(2*) VIRGINIA
(2*) TEXAS
(2*) TULSA

POWER RATING PLAY OF THE WEEK
NONE

NFL KEY SELECTIONS
(4*) TENNESSEE
(3*) CAROLINA

OTHER SELECTIONS
(2*) NEW ORLEANS
(2*) SEATTLE

PRO ANGLE PLAY
NONE

PRO STAT PLAY
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

COMPUTER CORNER
MARYLAND
PENN STATE
IOWA
COLORADO STATE

OVER-UNDERS
(3*) CLEVELAND UNDER
(3*) DALLAS UNDER
(3*) DETROIT OVER
(2*) GIANTS UNDER
(2*) SAN FRANCISCO OVER
------------------------------------------------------------
NORTHCOAST POWER PLAYS
(4*) COLLEGE - last week 11-4
BOSTON COLLEGE, MARYLAND,
RICE, PENN STATE, COLORADO STATE
AKRON, IOWA, BOISE STATE,
ARKANSAS, KANSAS STATE, TULANE,
MID TENNESSEE

(3* COLLEGE)
NORTHERN ILLINOIS, CENTRAL FLORIDA
FLORIDA STATE, IDAHO,
WASHINGTON, CALIFORNIA

(2* COLLEGE)
TEXAS A&M, KENTUCKY
PURDUE, NEW MEXICO

(4*) NFL
MIAMI

(2* NFL)
SAN FRANCISCO,
COLTS UNDER
------------------------------------------------------------
ROCKYS WINNERS CIRCLE
10* GAME OF THE WEEK
TULANE -19 ov Army

PREFERRED PICK
BOISE STATE -26 ov Louisiana Tech

BEST OF THE REST
CENTRAL MICHIGAN -3 ov Ball State
Oklahoma -26 at BAYLOR
SMU -6 at UTEP

NFL SUPER SYSTEM PLAY
NEW ORLEANS +3 ov Atlanta

NFL OVER-UNDER TOTALS
COLTS - DALLAS UNDER 41
MIAMI - BALTIMORE UNDER 36
PITTSBURGH - TENNESSEE UNDER 44
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TEXAS SYSTEM
TOP PLAYS
NC STATE
PURDUE
TULANE

ADDITIONAL SELECTIONS
HAWAII
IOWA
EAST CAROLINA
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WINNINGPOINTS NEWSLETTER PICKS
COLLEGE BEST BETS
(4*) COLORADO
(3*) CALIFORNIA

PREFERRED PLAYS
DUKE, TEXAS, VANDERBILT, SMU

CLOSE CALLS
LOUISVILLE, BOSTON COLLEGE, CLEMSON, VIRGINIA

NFL BEST BETS
(4*) MINNESOTA
(3*) WASHINGTON

PREFERRED PLAYS
CINCINNATI, TENNESSEE

CLOSE CALLS
NEW ORLEANS, KANSAS CITY, BALTIMORE, DALLAS

[chiefsc]

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that them Broncos from Boise State are MONEY!!!

[BettorsChat]

They are do to not cover and its this week.

[chiefsc]

Originally posted by BettorsChat
They are do to not cover and its this week.

that was said by some last week :D

[BettorsChat]

Yeah me and Rice sucked it up...lol.

Just think if the real Louisina Tech shows up they can cover. Boise St. is a damn good team though.

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bump