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COURTESY OF JIMMY VACCARO!
WHEN ROUND TWO OF THE DANCE BEGINS…
THE EDGE MOVES TO THE FAVORITES
All through the college basketball postseason, we've been reviewing last year's results to give you a sense of what to expect in this year's action. There are general tendencies that have held up for years in the conference tournaments…the NIT, and the NCAA tournament. If you go against these tendencies, you're destined to lose money over time. If you swim with the current at your back, you're much more likely to make money.
Historically speaking, the second round games in the Dance that are played on Saturday and Sunday skew a bit toward the favorites. This is where Cinderella falls flat in a letdown spot. This is where the power teams who had a virtual bye in their first game get focused and start firing on all cylinders. This is where eventual Final Four teams often let provide the first glimpse of what's to come.
Let's take a look at last season. We'll stagger the results by favorites and dogs…so it will be easier for you to see the tendencies. We'll start with the favorite ******, then go to the dog ****** each day.
Saturday March 22, 2003
Marquette (-3) beat Missouri 101-92
Oklahoma (-7) beat California 74-65
Kansas (-8) beat Arizona State 108-76
Duke (-10) beat Central Michigan 86-60
Connecticut (-3) beat Stanford 85-74
Notre Dame (+5) beat Illinois 68-60
Gonzaga (+10) covered in a 96-95 loss to Arizona
Tulsa (+3) covered in a 61-60 loss to Wisconsin
Sunday March 23, 2003
Syracuse (-2) beat Oklahoma State 68-56
Pittsburgh (-7) beat Indiana 74-52
Texas (-7) beat Purdue 77-67
Kentucky (-4) beat Utah 74-54
Maryland (-2) beat Xavier 77-64
Auburn (+5) beat Wake Forest 68-62
Michigan State (+5) beat Florida 68-46
Butler (+7) beat Louisville 79-71
Over the 16 game slate, the favorites went 10-6 ATS…63% winners. Now, that was admittedly helped a bit by an overtime result in the Missouri/Marquette game. If all the games ended at 40 mintues, the record would have fallen to 9-7.
But, note that BIG favorites, those of 7-points or more went 6-2 ATS…75% against expectations. Clearly the power teams had found their focus in other words. Even though the big cover teams were generally public teams who can often be overpriced in the postseason (Duke, Kansas, Kentucky…and number one seeds from last year Texas and Oklahoma for example), they still managed to top expectations fairly comfortably.
Also of note:
*Teams who had been well known for laying eggs in the tournament laid eggs, specifically Arizona, Florida, and Wake Forest (though Arizona advanced, barely).
*The eventual Final Four teams all covered their spreads, though Marquette needed overtime (and they were the shakiest of the Final Four teams…needing a HUGE game against Kentucky to advance…and Kentucky did cover on this particular day easily).
*The STRAIGHT UP WINNER went a sparkling 14-2 against the spread. The only two games where the dog covered but didn't win were Gonzaga/Arizona and Tulsa/Wisconsin. This is a very important thing to remember. If you like an underdog this weekend, the percentages suggest you should put part of your investment on the money line. In the first round last year…there were a ton of dogs who covered but didn't win. The spreads come down over the weekend…and often don't really matter.
*Butler was the only straight up winner over the weekend from a mid-major conference. Part of that was that there were fewer than normal big upsets in the first round. But, still, typically the power conferences do rule the day in the second round. Tulsa and Gonzaga covered their spreads but couldn't win. That might be a tendency to consider. If you like a dog from a mid-major, DON'T play the money line…just take the points. If you like a dog from a power conference…put a percentage on the money like to earn the bigger payoff if they win the game straight up (as Notre Dame, Auburn, and Michigan State did).
On the whole, last year's results set up some very clear strategies you should consider as you spend tonight studying the Saturday matchups…and tomorrow studying the Sunday matchups.
Do your best to weight your slate of selections in favor of the power teams, and in the direction of favorites. If you like an underdog…play properly depending on whether they're from a mid-major or a major conference. Don't worry too much about the pointspread because it ended up not mattering in 14 of 16 games last year.
Best of luck this weekend as you make your selections. If you'd like some help, you can get our plays right here on the web…or call us in the office at 1-888-546-4875 to lock yourself in to the rest of the college postseason.
Back Saturday for more from THE ODDSMAKER'S PERSPECTIVE
What are your ideas, fellas? It makes sense, doesn't it?
WHEN ROUND TWO OF THE DANCE BEGINS…
THE EDGE MOVES TO THE FAVORITES
All through the college basketball postseason, we've been reviewing last year's results to give you a sense of what to expect in this year's action. There are general tendencies that have held up for years in the conference tournaments…the NIT, and the NCAA tournament. If you go against these tendencies, you're destined to lose money over time. If you swim with the current at your back, you're much more likely to make money.
Historically speaking, the second round games in the Dance that are played on Saturday and Sunday skew a bit toward the favorites. This is where Cinderella falls flat in a letdown spot. This is where the power teams who had a virtual bye in their first game get focused and start firing on all cylinders. This is where eventual Final Four teams often let provide the first glimpse of what's to come.
Let's take a look at last season. We'll stagger the results by favorites and dogs…so it will be easier for you to see the tendencies. We'll start with the favorite ******, then go to the dog ****** each day.
Saturday March 22, 2003
Marquette (-3) beat Missouri 101-92
Oklahoma (-7) beat California 74-65
Kansas (-8) beat Arizona State 108-76
Duke (-10) beat Central Michigan 86-60
Connecticut (-3) beat Stanford 85-74
Notre Dame (+5) beat Illinois 68-60
Gonzaga (+10) covered in a 96-95 loss to Arizona
Tulsa (+3) covered in a 61-60 loss to Wisconsin
Sunday March 23, 2003
Syracuse (-2) beat Oklahoma State 68-56
Pittsburgh (-7) beat Indiana 74-52
Texas (-7) beat Purdue 77-67
Kentucky (-4) beat Utah 74-54
Maryland (-2) beat Xavier 77-64
Auburn (+5) beat Wake Forest 68-62
Michigan State (+5) beat Florida 68-46
Butler (+7) beat Louisville 79-71
Over the 16 game slate, the favorites went 10-6 ATS…63% winners. Now, that was admittedly helped a bit by an overtime result in the Missouri/Marquette game. If all the games ended at 40 mintues, the record would have fallen to 9-7.
But, note that BIG favorites, those of 7-points or more went 6-2 ATS…75% against expectations. Clearly the power teams had found their focus in other words. Even though the big cover teams were generally public teams who can often be overpriced in the postseason (Duke, Kansas, Kentucky…and number one seeds from last year Texas and Oklahoma for example), they still managed to top expectations fairly comfortably.
Also of note:
*Teams who had been well known for laying eggs in the tournament laid eggs, specifically Arizona, Florida, and Wake Forest (though Arizona advanced, barely).
*The eventual Final Four teams all covered their spreads, though Marquette needed overtime (and they were the shakiest of the Final Four teams…needing a HUGE game against Kentucky to advance…and Kentucky did cover on this particular day easily).
*The STRAIGHT UP WINNER went a sparkling 14-2 against the spread. The only two games where the dog covered but didn't win were Gonzaga/Arizona and Tulsa/Wisconsin. This is a very important thing to remember. If you like an underdog this weekend, the percentages suggest you should put part of your investment on the money line. In the first round last year…there were a ton of dogs who covered but didn't win. The spreads come down over the weekend…and often don't really matter.
*Butler was the only straight up winner over the weekend from a mid-major conference. Part of that was that there were fewer than normal big upsets in the first round. But, still, typically the power conferences do rule the day in the second round. Tulsa and Gonzaga covered their spreads but couldn't win. That might be a tendency to consider. If you like a dog from a mid-major, DON'T play the money line…just take the points. If you like a dog from a power conference…put a percentage on the money like to earn the bigger payoff if they win the game straight up (as Notre Dame, Auburn, and Michigan State did).
On the whole, last year's results set up some very clear strategies you should consider as you spend tonight studying the Saturday matchups…and tomorrow studying the Sunday matchups.
Do your best to weight your slate of selections in favor of the power teams, and in the direction of favorites. If you like an underdog…play properly depending on whether they're from a mid-major or a major conference. Don't worry too much about the pointspread because it ended up not mattering in 14 of 16 games last year.
Best of luck this weekend as you make your selections. If you'd like some help, you can get our plays right here on the web…or call us in the office at 1-888-546-4875 to lock yourself in to the rest of the college postseason.
Back Saturday for more from THE ODDSMAKER'S PERSPECTIVE
What are your ideas, fellas? It makes sense, doesn't it?