Tourney Plays

[HUNGlikeabear]

4-4

Even-steven after 8

Just for posting purposes

Got a nice number from a local

Over Rutgers 126

GL All

[HUNGlikeabear]

5-4

we want more

Posting for the forum

Right now I'm leaning heavy towards Oregon. If I play it, I'll post.

G Mason is going to have to score over 70 tonight to get a cover in this one. Oregon has played a much stronger schedule and is coming off a game were the whole team, outside of one player, didn't show up till late. They have a strong upside. GM taking the long trek to Oregon here to take on a team that won't take them lightly. I'm not sure because I don't like Oregon's D right now, but they have only given up 69 to much higher caliber teams at home. Oregon is very good from the line also. GM giving up more than 71 on the road top lesser quality opponents.

I'm thinking 80-65 right now.

Back if I play

GL ALL :D

[HUNGlikeabear]

Lock-n-load laying 8

GL

[HUNGlikeabear]

ComeonIwannalayya

6-4

Mich -(8-)

I really think Michigan is going to trash this team. Hawaii is going into uncharted waters while Michigan is a post season veteran that has historically done well in the NIT and has a strong home court backing. Regardless if UH is tired or not, I think they have shot their load. They don't play defense even when they are playing at full strength and hitting on all cylinders and I think it will cost them tonight. Michigan averages almost 72 pts/game at home against better talent, shooting 47% from the floor. UH giving up almost 69 pts/game on the road, over 74 pts/game over their last five at a 51% clip. UM coming off a couple of games against more defensive minded teams, will be happy to exploit UH, while playing defense that has been season tested against stronger opponents. I'm not impressed with UH victory over a Utah St team that was still kicking dirt over it's selection bypass. UM has been playing better against better teams, with one bad loss in a road game to Indiana over their last ten matchups. This young team has a season under their belt against UH possibly travel weary seniors.

A couple of things to take note of....
UH 11-20 ATS after allowing 80 or more points
UH 2-7 ATS after scoring 40 or more points in the 1st half of two straight games
UM 2-12 ATS against good defensive teams in the second half of the season

UM 10-4 ATS in games with this total
UM 15-5 ATS after allowing 55 or less

To bottom line it....
Michigan could score 80 tonight, UH not in a good spot historically, UM may miss their best scorer but the line is still set high, I don't think UH can make it three straight here, UM will not take UH lightly after their recent successes, UM with a better inside presence, if UH legs aren't there from the outside, they can't go inside.

GL:D

[TRUCKIN]

nice calls the last 2 nights
glad to see we have been on the same side the last couple nights
keep up the good work
lets kill em this weekend
gl

[HUNGlikeabear]

Thanks Truckin:D

I'm glad things have been well for you.

I don't think I could have capped tonight's game any better (my best work since coming to this forum). Hope my train of thought works for the big tourney.

GL

[TRUCKIN]

does it seem odd to you that vegas keeps putting out the totals so low for these games and they are getting bet up 5-8 points and still going way over the total that has been the case the last couple weeks since the tourneys have started i have been on alot of these overs but not as big because they are moving up so fast
just going to keep playing for a couple units at a time and keep cashing till they adjust the line
just seems strange that that total opened at 131 and several others
whats your opionion

[MemphisMafia]

Evidently :

You made a call ............... Good Job !


G.L.

***MMM***

:cool: :cool: :cool:

[HUNGlikeabear]

Originally posted by TRUCKIN
does it seem odd to you that vegas keeps putting out the totals so low for these games and they are getting bet up 5-8 points and still going way over the total that has been the case the last couple weeks since the tourneys have started i have been on alot of these overs but not as big because they are moving up so fast
just going to keep playing for a couple units at a time and keep cashing till they adjust the line
just seems strange that that total opened at 131 and several others
whats your opionion

You can't necessarily just look at what has happenned over the last couple weeks or even couple years on things like this. If you could, go back and look at the totals over the last three years plus. The public could just be correct this year on these things. It's too small of a sample to make a judgement on. Cap each game on it's own merits. With that said, I do strongly believe in trends "averaging to the mean" and everything evening out. Vegas will catch up and the numbers eventually even out.

Last year, the public seemed to hit every NBA game. I keep playing against the line moves and lost my a s s.

This year, I noticed lately the line moves in the NIT have been on the losing side (mostly). Just noticed this recently, not through the whole NIT. Whatever conclsions/trends you come up with, you need to always try to take everything into account and not be a "single cause" voter.

You seem to have it right. (Bad) Money management is usually what kills players.

[HUNGlikeabear]

7-4

Wake Forest +

WF should show Joes what being this far in the tourney is all about. Despite their lack of defensive success this year, they still outscored opponents of a MUCH tougher schedule by 3 on the road. Wake forest also out rebounds their opponents on the road by 4, while Joes is out rebounded on the road by 5. Against the one lone similar opponent, WF shot better and defended better, with more rebounds. Joes is 0-8 ATS against good shooting teams in the second half of the season. WF happy to let Joes get all the pub for once, while they bring their A game in a shootout. Joes has been exposed over their last five defensively, EX: Xavier shooting 71%, and Texas Tech shooting 47%. Wake playing it's last two better against better, and still have much room for improvement. The Joe's coach is now trying to bury the whole Packer thing, but it's still going to be a distraction. They got all they could out of it and now it's a negative.

GL All

edit
WF +3

[HUNGlikeabear]

7-5

missed it byyyyyyyyyyyy that much (my thumb and finger are a millimeter apart)

Duke/Illinois Under (hope it gets to 150 by game time)

In the last game for each.....
-neither of their opponents played ANY defense...Ill shot .636, Duke .542
-turnovers were extremely sparse
-ton of free points with the clock stopped, due to the lazy defense played by the other team...Ill 11/14, Duke 34/38:eek:
-7 players for each team in tonights matchup scored, 6 actually, tells me what weapons are involved offensively can be focused on.

Duke is going to defend Illinois' guards, like they did last time out, limiting SH's to 3/17 from beyond the arch and .421 shooting for the game. I know they can't change their stripes, but they will want to focus more on scoring in the paint, where they have an advantage. This will slow the tempo down. Illinois knows they can't score with Duke, their guards know the game will rest on their ability to defend and harass, slowing down the tempo more. Illinois getting no respect. More focus, more defense. Against the 4 common opponents this year, each has averaged under this total, limiting the opposition to the high 60's while scoring in the low 70's themselves. Duke hasn't seen any defense over their last five games, with many being blowouts from the start. Illinois has a season of Big Ten battles to draw from, this isn't the ACC defense Duke will face. In two games early in the year, Duke beat Purdue on a neutral court 78-68, 146 points, and Mich St on the road 72-50, 122 points. Illinois brings a much better defense on a neutral court, in the elite eight, pressure time.

Bottom line
Each coach is top notch. Adjustments will have to be made as the game goes along from what is shown at the start. The shock of actually seeing some defense, and some possible tightness offensively, will keep initial scoring low. I'm hoping a slower tempo will screw up the flow of Duke's smooth offense, forcing them to go to more of a matchup situation. Hoping also to see more turnovers and less fouling in more of a half court type game. Illinois will be one-and-done as Duke rebounds better and Illinois offense is mostly of the perimeter variety. More defense=tired legs as the game goes on=lower shooting percentage. Hoping points will have to be worked for.

GL

[HUNGlikeabear]

.

[ksiksay]

nice play!

thx for the under

[HUNGlikeabear]

8-5

posting for book keeping purposes on this one

UConn/Alabama Under (142-)

BAMA is 3/11 O/U in road games after scoring 80 points

UConn 2/8 O/U in road games as a neutral court favorite of 6.5 to 12 points.

[HUNGlikeabear]

8-6

Again

If Uconn played the 1st half like they played the 2nd, I would be happy.

Under Joe's/Ok St 145

Both teams have good defensive guard play and minimal rebounding. One and done. Both have held their opponents to a low % from the three point line. I may be guessing, but I'm also thinking both may be a bit tired coming off their last opponent, thus the legs may not be there the whole game for those outside shots. I've read Joe's plays a similar style to Memphis, so they had a "prep" game for tonights showdown, albeit a weaker opponent. I can't bet Joes because I don't think they have played anyone in a while. If WF had a little more discipline, they wouldn't have turned the ball over as much and wouldn't have allowed those 2nd shots (three's) off offensive rebounds. I think Ok St has played better against better talent over their last ten. I'm probably biased against Joe's for some reason or another. I don't believe in them and haven't the whole tourney. I was impressed by the D their guards played against Wake. I think Ok St will want to control tempo and slow things down a bit here. Joe's will have to work harder than they did against the paper tiger defense of Wake. Ok St hasn't seen offensive guards with this offensive talent in a while.

GL