Tweet
Tips on handicapping the Big Dance
First, there are two ways a team gets to play in the Big Dance. One is by earning it and winning their conference, or you can get there by political means with an at large bid. When the teams are seeded they are done so by the NCAA RPI, which addresses wins and losses, but is not as accurate as those used by the gaming industry.
Defense should be everyone's number 1 handicapping factor. Shooting percentage allowed is a key stat. Free throws given up and attempted are another important statistic. When one team gets to the free throw line far more than their opponent, it means that they play fundamentally sound defense, and are aggressive on offense.
Beware of teams that don't have an inside/outside balance. One-dimensional power teams who build up impressive won-lost records against mediocre competition could be particularly vulnerable. So many teams who are good inside dominate weaker teams during the regular season. Beyond the first round of the tournament there are few mismatches inside anymore. Teams are not going to be able to push anyone else around.
Backing a good defensive team is the number 1 criteria. After that rate teams on tournament experience, coaching and having an effective point guard as other key elements in handicapping the tournament. Alot of the games are going to be close, especially this year with such a wide open tournament with so many different teams capable of winning it! These games will come down to who makes the good decisions the last couple minutes of a game. That's why coaching and point guard play are such an important factor.
Other important factors are, teams won/lose records away and on neutral courts since no team is playing on their home courts. Rating conferences from strongest to the weakest and which teams played stronger out of conference schedules to get ready for the season and post season play. I also take into consideration rebounding margins, free throw shooting percentages, 3 pt shooting percentages, and how deep teams can go into their bench for subs that can give them extra minutes on the floor. Some teams actually have non-starters playing more minutes per game than their starters. Kentucky is a prime example of this type of play, were they actually play two different teams at times because they like to run the floor.
Make yourself a checklist, put one team on the left side with what factors your taking into consideration and the other team on the right side of your checklist. Put a check mark by the team with the advantage of each factor. You can also include common opponents into your checklist to see which team fared better! Tally up the check marks to see which team has the edge going into the game. Remember handicapping is trying to find an edge in the game, because no one is physic and can predict if a player is going to shoot the lights out on any given night. If their is someone out there who is, please let all us gamblers here at bettorschat.com know and give us the outcome ahead of time! Hope info helps us win some green and everyone should say a prayer to the gambling gods before each game starts that you wager on!
Good luck to everyone during the tournament and most importantly, bet within your budget and don't get stupid or in over your head to were it affects your finances and personnel lifes.
GL Krunch :D
Defense should be everyone's number 1 handicapping factor. Shooting percentage allowed is a key stat. Free throws given up and attempted are another important statistic. When one team gets to the free throw line far more than their opponent, it means that they play fundamentally sound defense, and are aggressive on offense.
Beware of teams that don't have an inside/outside balance. One-dimensional power teams who build up impressive won-lost records against mediocre competition could be particularly vulnerable. So many teams who are good inside dominate weaker teams during the regular season. Beyond the first round of the tournament there are few mismatches inside anymore. Teams are not going to be able to push anyone else around.
Backing a good defensive team is the number 1 criteria. After that rate teams on tournament experience, coaching and having an effective point guard as other key elements in handicapping the tournament. Alot of the games are going to be close, especially this year with such a wide open tournament with so many different teams capable of winning it! These games will come down to who makes the good decisions the last couple minutes of a game. That's why coaching and point guard play are such an important factor.
Other important factors are, teams won/lose records away and on neutral courts since no team is playing on their home courts. Rating conferences from strongest to the weakest and which teams played stronger out of conference schedules to get ready for the season and post season play. I also take into consideration rebounding margins, free throw shooting percentages, 3 pt shooting percentages, and how deep teams can go into their bench for subs that can give them extra minutes on the floor. Some teams actually have non-starters playing more minutes per game than their starters. Kentucky is a prime example of this type of play, were they actually play two different teams at times because they like to run the floor.
Make yourself a checklist, put one team on the left side with what factors your taking into consideration and the other team on the right side of your checklist. Put a check mark by the team with the advantage of each factor. You can also include common opponents into your checklist to see which team fared better! Tally up the check marks to see which team has the edge going into the game. Remember handicapping is trying to find an edge in the game, because no one is physic and can predict if a player is going to shoot the lights out on any given night. If their is someone out there who is, please let all us gamblers here at bettorschat.com know and give us the outcome ahead of time! Hope info helps us win some green and everyone should say a prayer to the gambling gods before each game starts that you wager on!
Good luck to everyone during the tournament and most importantly, bet within your budget and don't get stupid or in over your head to were it affects your finances and personnel lifes.
GL Krunch :D
Comment