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Read with great interest the halftime system on the other thread. I've been playing a halftime system for the last half the CBB season, and though, the number of opportunites is pretty limited, my results have come in (since January) at 18-8. I don't look for middles as I think they're overrated, i.e., the "full game" bet made is sunk cost or made profit. If I'm up big at the half, why would I want to risk any second half $$$ if I've pretty much already won on my pre-game opinion. Take the money and smile. Whether the other side ****** the second half number or not I've been a winner. EVERY BET IS INDEPENDENT FROM EVERY OTHER ONE AND I BET TO WIN. My plays aren't looking for insurance. Anyway, enough philosophy. Here's the system I'm playing around with....
This might be too long a post, but I'm gonna do it anyway cause I'd like others' opinions. Based on the game line I break all games down into competetive (lines between P and 7), mildly competetive (8-14) and non-competetive (15+). The systems applies ONLY TO MILDLY COMPETETIVE (MC) games. My theory is that one team is CLEARLY superior to the other, and is, therefore, SUPPOSED to win. The premise underlying the system is to find a dog in the "uncomfortable" position of leading a better team at the half. They KNOW that this isn't supposed to happen. But when it does, from the opening possession of the second half the dog seems to play "to avoid losing"...More pressure, more bad decisions, trying the bleed the clock, etc, etc. It's amazing how many times in this situation, when the chalk makes one big run in the second, the dog suddenly can't trow it in the ocean. Accordingly, the fav ****** big in the second half.
Fundamentally, this system finds its origin in two distinct factors. The more important premise I developed from many years as a golf pro, and it is based in getting an athlete (or team) out of his/its comfort zone. The second aspect is line value that is dictated by the situation at halftime. In the MC class of games, the halftime lines will normally range from 50% to 100% of the game line (i.e., a gametime 10 point favorite regardless of the score at the half, will almost certainly be laying between 5 and 10 for the second half). This is one of the reasons for limiting the system to MC games. A second half allows enough game time for the fav to cover a number possibly as big as the gametime line in a single half.
Conditions for a play. Bet the favorite for the second half if theyare (at the half) DOWN by at least half as many points as they were favored for the game. Interestingly, the system has performed BETTER the relatively larger the halftime deficit when compared to the game line. I theorize that in a game with an opening line of 10, there are a large number of ways for the final to wind up with the fav winning by 8 and not covering. The "norm" would see the fav being up by say 3,4, or 5 at the half and going on to win by the 8. In this situation the dog, being down a few at the half, oftentimes will likely play its "normal" second half. Anytime both teams play their normal game, Vegas isn't gonna be far off on anything it posts. No betting advantage there. Coversely, the Dog leads by several at the half...They likely still will lose SU to the better team cause that's the way its supposed to be. When this happens, certainly the favorite is a desirable second half play. Interestingly, when the situation is such thatthe favorite is down so big at the half that they could cover the halftime line and STILL NOT WIN S/U the results are even better. Those games, since January are 5-0. Fundamentally, this is good since the second half cover that could lead to a S/U loss i sbenfitted by the fact that the dog is likely to give up cheapies late as long as the game win is safe.
Another edge I think the system has is this. If a ten point dog leads by 5-10 at the half it's likley that they've played as good a first half as their capable of or the favorite has played as bad as they can play, or a combination of both. In any event the better team can make adjustments at the half to improve their game or take away something from the Dog in the second. The Dog, on the other hand, has basically shot all its bullets already...no adjustments they talk about can help 'em if they've played their best in the first.
Whew...real long I know, but I'd love to hear some comments and opinions from some of the rest of the followers of the best forum on the net....
PS....My SEC Tourney GOY is the fourth #1 seed in the NCAAs...Mississippi State (UGH) hard for an Ole Miss grad to say
-5....GLTA
This might be too long a post, but I'm gonna do it anyway cause I'd like others' opinions. Based on the game line I break all games down into competetive (lines between P and 7), mildly competetive (8-14) and non-competetive (15+). The systems applies ONLY TO MILDLY COMPETETIVE (MC) games. My theory is that one team is CLEARLY superior to the other, and is, therefore, SUPPOSED to win. The premise underlying the system is to find a dog in the "uncomfortable" position of leading a better team at the half. They KNOW that this isn't supposed to happen. But when it does, from the opening possession of the second half the dog seems to play "to avoid losing"...More pressure, more bad decisions, trying the bleed the clock, etc, etc. It's amazing how many times in this situation, when the chalk makes one big run in the second, the dog suddenly can't trow it in the ocean. Accordingly, the fav ****** big in the second half.
Fundamentally, this system finds its origin in two distinct factors. The more important premise I developed from many years as a golf pro, and it is based in getting an athlete (or team) out of his/its comfort zone. The second aspect is line value that is dictated by the situation at halftime. In the MC class of games, the halftime lines will normally range from 50% to 100% of the game line (i.e., a gametime 10 point favorite regardless of the score at the half, will almost certainly be laying between 5 and 10 for the second half). This is one of the reasons for limiting the system to MC games. A second half allows enough game time for the fav to cover a number possibly as big as the gametime line in a single half.
Conditions for a play. Bet the favorite for the second half if theyare (at the half) DOWN by at least half as many points as they were favored for the game. Interestingly, the system has performed BETTER the relatively larger the halftime deficit when compared to the game line. I theorize that in a game with an opening line of 10, there are a large number of ways for the final to wind up with the fav winning by 8 and not covering. The "norm" would see the fav being up by say 3,4, or 5 at the half and going on to win by the 8. In this situation the dog, being down a few at the half, oftentimes will likely play its "normal" second half. Anytime both teams play their normal game, Vegas isn't gonna be far off on anything it posts. No betting advantage there. Coversely, the Dog leads by several at the half...They likely still will lose SU to the better team cause that's the way its supposed to be. When this happens, certainly the favorite is a desirable second half play. Interestingly, when the situation is such thatthe favorite is down so big at the half that they could cover the halftime line and STILL NOT WIN S/U the results are even better. Those games, since January are 5-0. Fundamentally, this is good since the second half cover that could lead to a S/U loss i sbenfitted by the fact that the dog is likely to give up cheapies late as long as the game win is safe.
Another edge I think the system has is this. If a ten point dog leads by 5-10 at the half it's likley that they've played as good a first half as their capable of or the favorite has played as bad as they can play, or a combination of both. In any event the better team can make adjustments at the half to improve their game or take away something from the Dog in the second. The Dog, on the other hand, has basically shot all its bullets already...no adjustments they talk about can help 'em if they've played their best in the first.
Whew...real long I know, but I'd love to hear some comments and opinions from some of the rest of the followers of the best forum on the net....
PS....My SEC Tourney GOY is the fourth #1 seed in the NCAAs...Mississippi State (UGH) hard for an Ole Miss grad to say
-5....GLTA
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