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Iowa vs Michigan (-1.5) - 2:30 ET - Big 10 Tournament
I am very high on Michigan coming into this tournament. This team is very capable of making some noise and contending for the championship game. They finished Big 10 play with a disappointing 8-8 record but could just have easily been 12-4 as four of those losses were by a combined 13 points. They had good chances to win each of those. The Wolverines have been playing their best basketball to end the season winning four of their final six games. In that span they beat then #10 Wisconsin by double digits and won their season finale on the road at Northwestern by 7 becoming just the second Big 10 team to win in Evanston (both Illinois & Wisconsin lost by double digits). They blew a big second half lead at home vs Michigan State and lost a tough on the road at Indiana in which they led most of the way despite getting a season low 2 points on 1-of-9 shooting from Bernard Robinson.
Michigan's three freshman have really come on over the course of the season. Center Courtney Sims (11.2ppg, 6.0rpg, 1.8 blocks, 62.3% FG last 11 games), guard Dion Harris (scored double figures 13 times), and forward Brent Petway (super athletic, 3.3rpg, 1.0 block per game in very limited minutes) are bigger difference makers now than they were early in the season. Sophomore center Chris Hunter recently returned from 12 game absence to injury and provides added depth. Michigan can easily go 9 deep now which gives Tommy Amaker a big advantage over his counterpart Alford who has a very thin bench.
There were six Big 10 teams (Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Iowa, Michigan, Northwestern) who did not finish with a losing record in conference play. Iowa finished a dismal 1-7 vs these teams, Michigan went a respectable 4-5. Iowa finished the season 1-6 vs RPI top 50 teams and the lone win came in overtime over Louisville way back in November. Over the course of he season, the Hawkeyes lost two good big men in Jared Reiner (10.5ppg, 7.2rpg) and Sean Sonderleiter (5.4ppg, 4.4rpg) to injuries. Iowa only plays about 7 players now and there is a big drop-off in talent anytime a starter leaves the floor. The entire Iowa bench has averaged just 3.1 points per game in last 7. Expect Wolverines to advance.
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