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NY JETS (-3.0) 26 Miami 19
05:30 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Nov-10
The Jets won 44-13 as a 7 ½ point underdog at San Diego as a 3-Star Best Bet and I’m tempted to take them again this week against a Miami team that has not been able to function offensively with backup quarterback Ray Lucas at the controls. Lucas has averaged a horrible 4.1 yards per pass play in his two starts while throwing 6 interceptions and losing two fumbles. I’m not going to forecast that low level of play to continue, but Lucas has averaged just 5.3 yards per pass play in his career with 17 picks in 418 pass plays (worse than average). Lucas hurt his shoulder in Monday’s loss to Green Bay and is listed as questionable, so 3rd stringer Sage Rosenfels will get the start if Lucas can’t play. Miami ran the ball well on Monday night against Green Bay (4.8 ypr) and they’ll likely do the same here against a Jets’ defense that has surrendered 5.0 ypr to teams that average 4.4 ypr on offense, including 211 yards at 6.0 ypr in their earlier 3-30 loss at Miami. The Jets are also bad against the pass (6.6 yppp allowed to teams that average 6.2 yppp), but they held the Dolphins to a respectable 5.9 yppp in their first meeting and Lucas isn’t likely to put up better than average passing numbers in this game. The Jets’ offense has come on since Chad Pennington took over at quarterback and Pennington has averaged a sparkling 7.2 yards per pass play (against teams that allow 6.4 yppp) and has guided his team to an average of 28 points in their last 4 games. Miami’s defense is better than average (5.1 yppl allowed to teams that average 5.4 yppl), but they have been just mediocre defensively on the road the last few years, allowing 21.7 points per game on the road since ’99, compared to 12.5 ppg at home. The Jets should be able to put up a good number of points as they get revenge for their earlier blowout loss at Miami (before Pennington became the quarterback).
05:30 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Nov-10
The Jets won 44-13 as a 7 ½ point underdog at San Diego as a 3-Star Best Bet and I’m tempted to take them again this week against a Miami team that has not been able to function offensively with backup quarterback Ray Lucas at the controls. Lucas has averaged a horrible 4.1 yards per pass play in his two starts while throwing 6 interceptions and losing two fumbles. I’m not going to forecast that low level of play to continue, but Lucas has averaged just 5.3 yards per pass play in his career with 17 picks in 418 pass plays (worse than average). Lucas hurt his shoulder in Monday’s loss to Green Bay and is listed as questionable, so 3rd stringer Sage Rosenfels will get the start if Lucas can’t play. Miami ran the ball well on Monday night against Green Bay (4.8 ypr) and they’ll likely do the same here against a Jets’ defense that has surrendered 5.0 ypr to teams that average 4.4 ypr on offense, including 211 yards at 6.0 ypr in their earlier 3-30 loss at Miami. The Jets are also bad against the pass (6.6 yppp allowed to teams that average 6.2 yppp), but they held the Dolphins to a respectable 5.9 yppp in their first meeting and Lucas isn’t likely to put up better than average passing numbers in this game. The Jets’ offense has come on since Chad Pennington took over at quarterback and Pennington has averaged a sparkling 7.2 yards per pass play (against teams that allow 6.4 yppp) and has guided his team to an average of 28 points in their last 4 games. Miami’s defense is better than average (5.1 yppl allowed to teams that average 5.4 yppl), but they have been just mediocre defensively on the road the last few years, allowing 21.7 points per game on the road since ’99, compared to 12.5 ppg at home. The Jets should be able to put up a good number of points as they get revenge for their earlier blowout loss at Miami (before Pennington became the quarterback).
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